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At least 19 records

Solar oscillations and the equation of state

The dependence of frequencies of solar oscillations on the thermodynamic state of the sun is considered. On the basis of an analysis of the equations of stellar structure, as well as the relevant aspects of the properties of the oscillations, it is argued that in the convection zone, information about the equation of state which is relatively unaffected by other uncertainties in the physics of the solar interior can be isolated. The different treatments that have been employed to describe the thermodynamics of stellar plasmas are reviewed. Through application of several of these treatments to the computation of models of the solar envelope, it is demonstrated that the sensitivity of the observed frequencies is in fact sufficient to distinguish even quite subtle features of the physics of solar matter.

Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jorgen↗

Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first-order Taylor series analysis of wind speed, SST, near-surface stability and relative humidity variations around climatology to gauge the importance of these components. We find that the MERRA-2 evaporation record is strongly influenced by the availability of wind speed and humidity from passive microwave imagers beginning in the late 1980s as well as by the SST record. The trend over the period 1980 to present is nearly 10%. AMIP or the ERA-20C trends are much smaller. We find that ENSO-related signals involving both wind speed and thermodynamic variability remain the primary signal in the latter and are confirmed by satellite retrievals. We present uncertainty estimates based on the various data sources and discuss the implications for GEWEX water and energy budget science challenges.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Role of Arctic Low Clouds in the Arctic Climate System: Isolating the Surface Type Influence on Arctic Low-Clouds

Interactions between sea ice and clouds represent a mechanism through which sea ice influences climate. Understanding the cloud response to the rapidly changing Arctic surface properties is necessary for improving climate simulations and projection of future change inside and outside the Arctic. Towards the goal of understanding the cloud response to sea ice, we composite cloud properties for ice-free, marginal ice zone (MIZ), and ice-covered surfaces during MIZ crossing events to analyze the cloud property differences between surface types. Restricting the analysis to MIZ crossing events enables the isolation of the sea ice effect on clouds from meteorological factors. We find larger cloud fraction and total water concentration below ~1.5 km over ice-free relative to ice-covered surfaces during non-summer months. During summer, the results suggest larger cloud fraction and total water concentration over ice-free surfaces, however differences do not exceed observational uncertainty. Cloud property differences are linked to atmospheric thermodynamic profile differences, namely ice-free surfaces are warmer, moister, less stable, and have more positive surface turbulent fluxes than ice-covered surfaces. Ice-free minus ice-covered cloud property differences scale with surface temperature differences and are only found in the presence of a surface temperature difference. Our results suggest a 0.02 cloud fraction and 0.005 g m 3 total water concentration increase (~5%) at the level of maximum cloud fraction between 2000-2021 due to the observed Arctic sea ice decline in fall, corresponding to ~2 Wm 2 increase in the net surface radiative flux supporting a positive sea ice-cloud radiative feedback in fall and winter and a negative sea ice-cloud radiative feedback in spring. We propose an updated conceptual model where the average surface type influence on cloud properties is mediated by surface temperature differences between ice-free and ice-covered surfaces.

Arctic climate↗

Irreversibility

The principles of thermodynamics in relation to the irreversibility of real processes in nature are examined, taking into account an analogy used by Gibbs to present a picture concerning the time evolution of a complicated dynamical system. The significance of quantum-mechanics relations with respect to irreversibility considerations is explored. It is shown that quantum mechanical uncertainties are not necessarily required to obtain irreversibility.

Lamb, W. E., Jr.↗

New method for determining relative oscillator strengths of atoms through combined absorption and emission measurements - Application to titanium /Ti I/

The paper introduces a procedure that combines measurements of absorption and emission by atoms to obtain relative oscillator strengths that are independent of temperature determination in the sources and of assumptions regarding local thermodynamic equilibrium. The experimental observations are formed into sets of transitions and required to satisfy defined ratios. The procedure is illustrated with the published data of Whaling et al. and Smith and Kuehne for 16 transitions in Ti I. It is shown that the relative oscillator strengths resulting from this procedure have calculated uncertainties between 5 and 17% (about 95% confidence level). Evidence is presented to suggest that these uncertainties have been overestimated.

Cardon, B. L.↗

Stellar oxygen abundances. 4: Systematic effects on oxygen abundances derived from the 6300 A (O I) and 7774 A O I lines

We consider potential systematic effects on oxygen abundances derived from the 6300 A (OI) line and the 7774 A OI triplet. Our solar intensity spectra of the 7774 A triplet confirm previous results which indicate a discrepancy between the observed equivalent widths of Altrock (1968) and the values predicted by Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE) and recent NLTE models. However, this disagreement (at low micron(s)) does not seem to affect the solar O abundance as derived from flux spectra. We derive O abundances for a selection of relatively metal-rich F and G dwarfs from both the 6300 A (OI) line and 7774 A OI triplet and detail the various uncertainties which enter into the analyses. Minimizing possible systematic effects to the extent possible, we find for T(sub eff) approximately less than 6200-6300 K no systematic difference between the 6300 and 7774 A abundances. For T(sub eff) approximately greater than 6200-6300 K, however 7774 A abundances are substantially larger than the 6300 A abundances. This agreement in O abundances from the two features at cooler T(sub eff) conflicts with that of others and we suggest that the discrepancy may be due to the different model atmospheres utilized. If recently proposed, hotter T(sub eff) values for metal-poor dwarfs are correct, then there appears to be no discrepancy between the 6300 A abundances of metal-poor giants are correct, then there appears to be no discrepancy between the 6300 A abundances of metal-poor giants or dwarfs and the 7774 A abundances for dwarfs. This would seem to rule out substantial LTE departures or atmospheric inhomogeneity effects skewing metal-poor O abundances from the 7774 A triplet (for cooler stars having low metallicity anyway). Given the repeated inability of authors to reproduce each others' O abundances from the 6300 A (OI) line and the uncertainties in the solar equivalent width, we question the usual assumption that the 6300 A (OI) line and the uncertainties in the solar equivalent width, we question the usual assumption that the 6300 A (OI) abundances are more reliable than those from the permitted triplet.

King, Jeremy R.↗

Earth's partial pressure of CO2 over the past 120 Ma; evidence from Ce anomalies in the deep (greater than 600 m) Pacific Ocean, 1

It was found that Ce serves as a chemical tracer of paleo-oceanic redox conditions. It was shown that the unoxidized and soluble Ce(3+) in modern seawater exhibits a negative anomaly relative to the other soluble REE(3+). An expression of soluble Ce(3+) in seawater that was approximately 1900X greater than the average observed in Ce in 600-5000 m Pacific seawater was derived. Since Ce(CO3)(+) and Ce(CO3)2(-) complexes greatly exceed the Ce(PO4) complexes in seawater, the formulations of using carbonate complexes were followed and it was found that the calculated Ce and observed concentrations in the deep 600-5000 m Pacific Ocean agree within the uncertainties of the thermodynamic data. As expected, the calculated Ce concentrations are a strong function of pH and found to be lesser functions of CO3(2-) activities.

Liu, Y.-G↗

The X-43A Flight Research Program: Lessons Learned on the Road to Mach 10

During an aerospace engineer's undergraduate studies, he or she will attend classes in aerodynamics, thermodynamics, structures, stability and control, dynamics, design, propulsion, and computer science, along with the related courses in mathematics, physics, statistics, and chemistry required to understand the material. Upon graduation, the new engineer will have acquired a basic knowledge of how to build an aerospace vehicle. What only comes through experience, however, is the understanding of the inevitable imperfect process through which an aerospace vehicle is built. This is the adventure of turning a basic concept into functional hardware. Engineers working on a project must often deal with ambiguous situations. They are routinely asked by management to provide risk assessments of a project, yet even after careful analysis uncertainties remain. The project must be accomplished within finite limits of time and money. The question an engineer answers is whether the solution to potential problem is worth the cost and schedule delay, or if the solution might actually be worse than the problem it is meant to solve. Review protocols are established to ensure that an unknown has not been overlooked. But these cannot protect against an unknown unknown. Examples of these situations can be found in the history of the X-43A Hyper-X (Hypersonic Experiment) program. In this NASA project, a supersonic combustion ramjet (scramjet) engine was flight tested on a subscale vehicle. The X-43A Hyper-X Research Vehicle (HXRV) was launched from a B-52B mothership, then boosted to the test speed by a modified Pegasus rocket first stage, called the Hyper-X Launch Vehicle (HXLV). Once at the proper speed and altitude, the X-43A separated from the booster, stabilized itself, and then the engine test began. Although wind-tunnel scramjet engine tests had begun in the late 1950s, before the Hyper-X program there had never been an actual in-flight test of such an engine integrated with an appropriate airframe. Thus, while the scramjet had successfully operated in the artificial airflow of wind tunnels, the concept had yet to be proven in real air. These conditions meant changes in density and temperature, as well as changes in angle of attack and sideslip of a free-flying vehicle. A wind tunnel is limited in its ability to simulate these subtle factures, which have a major impact on almost any vehicle, but especially that of a scramjet's performance. The Hyper-X project was to provide a real-world benchmark of the ground test data. The full scale X-43A engine would be operated in the wind tunnel, and then flown, and the data from its operation would then be compared with projections. If these matched, the wind tunnel data would be considered a reliable design tool for future scramjet. If there were significant differences, the reasons for these would have to be identified. Until such information was available, scramjets would lack the technological maturity to be considered for future space launch or high-speed atmospheric flight vehicles.

Peebles, Curtis↗

High-resolution SOFIA/EXES Spectroscopy of SO2 Gas in the Massive Young Stellar Object MonR2 IRS3: Implications for the Sulfur Budget

Sulfur has been observed to be severely depleted in dense clouds leading to uncertainty in the molecules that contain it and the chemistry behind their evolution. Here, we aim to shed light on the sulfur chemistry in young stellar objects (YSOs) by using high-resolution infrared spectroscopy of absorption by the ν3 rovibrational band of SO2 obtained with the Echelon-Cross-Echelle Spectrograph on the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy. Using local thermodynamic equilibrium models we derive physical parameters for the SO2 gas in the massive YSO MonR2 IRS3. This yields a SO2/H abundance lower limit of 5.6 ± 0.5 × 10(exp -7), or >4% of the cosmic sulfur budget, and an intrinsic line width (Doppler parameter) of b < 3.20 km s(exp -1). The small line widths and high temperature (Tex = 234 ± 15 K) locate the gas in a relatively quiescent region near the YSO, presumably in the hot core where ices have evaporated. This sublimation unlocks a volatile sulfur reservoir (e.g., sulfur allotropes as detected abundantly in comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko), which is followed by SO2 formation by warm, dense gas-phase chemistry. The narrowness of the lines makes formation of SO2 from sulfur sputtered off grains in shocks less likely toward MonR2 IRS3.

Infrared ISM↗

GRAIL Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

Joint interpretation of disparate geophysical datasets helps reduce drawbacks that can result from analyzing them individually. The Apollo seismic network was situated on the lunar nearside surface in a roughly equilateral triangle having sides approximately 1000 km long, with stations 12/14 nearly co-located at one corner. Due to this limited geographical extent, near-surface ray coverage from moonquakes is low, but increases with depth. In comparison, gravity surveys and their resulting gravity anomaly maps have traditionally offered optimal resolution at crustal depths. Gravimetric maps and seismic data sets are therefore well suited to joint inversion, since the complementary information reduces inherent model ambiguity. Previous joint inversions of the Apollo seismic data (seismic phase arrival times) and Clementine- or Lunar Prospector-derived gravity data (mass and moment of inertia) attempted to recover the subsurface structure of the Moon by focusing on hypothetical lunar compositions that explored the density/velocity relationship. These efforts typically searched for the best fitting thermodynamically calculated velocity/density model, and allowed variables like core size, velocity, and/or composition to vary freely. Seismic velocity profiles derived from the Apollo seismic data through travel time inversion vary both in the depth of the crust and mantle layers, and the seismic velocities and densities assigned to those layers. The lunar mass and moment of inertia likewise only constrain gross variations in the density profile beyond that of a uniform density sphere. As a result, composition and structure models previously obtained by jointly inverting these data retain the original uncertainties inherent in the input data sets. We perform a joint inversion of Apollo seismic delay times and gravity data collected by the GRAIL lunar gravity mission, in order to recover seismic velocity and density as a function of latitude, longitude, and depth within the Moon. We relate density (p) to seismic velocity (v) using a depth-dependent linear relationship. The corresponding coefficient (B) can reflect a variety of material properties, including temperature and composition. The inversion seeks to recover the set of p, v, and B perturbations that minimize (in a least-squares sense) the difference between the observed and calculated data.

Weber, Renee C.↗

GRAIL Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

Joint interpretation of disparate geophysical datasets helps to reduce drawbacks that can result from analyzing them individually. The Apollo seismic network was situated on the lunar nearside surface in a roughly equilateral triangle having sides approximately 1000 km long, with stations 12/14 nearly co‐located at one corner. Due to this limited geographical extent, near‐surface ray coverage from moonquakes is low, but increases with depth. In comparison, gravity surveys and their resulting gravity anomaly maps have traditionally offered optimal resolution at crustal depths. Gravimetric maps and seismic data sets are therefore well suited to joint inversion, since the complementary information reduces inherent model ambiguity. Previous joint inversions of the Apollo seismic data (seismic phase arrival times) and Clementine‐ or Lunar Prospector‐derived gravity data (mass and moment of inertia) attempted to recover the subsurface structure of the Moon by focusing on hypothetical lunar compositions that explore the density/velocity relationship. These efforts typically search for the best fitting thermodynamically calculated velocity/density model, allowing variables like core size, velocity, and/or composition to vary freely. Seismic velocity profiles previously derived from the Apollo seismic data through inversion of travel times vary both in the depth of the crust and mantle layers, and the seismic velocities and densities assigned to those layers. The lunar mass and moment of inertia likewise only constrain gross variations in the density profile beyond that of a uniform density sphere. As a result, composition and structure models previously obtained by jointly inverting these data retain the original uncertainties inherent in the input data sets. We will perform a joint inversion of Apollo seismic delay times and gravity data collected by the GRAIL lunar gravity mission, in order to recover seismic velocities and density as a function of latitude, longitude, and depth within the Moon. We will relate density to seismic velocity using a linear relationship that is allowed to be depth‐dependent. The corresponding coefficient (B) can reflect a variety of material properties that vary with depth, including temperature and composition. The inversion seeks to recover the set of density, velocity, and B‐coefficient perturbations that minimize (in a least‐squares sense) the difference between the observed and calculated data.

Weber, Renee C.↗

Development and Validation of a Slosh-Based Ullage Collapse Model

Ullage collapse modeling is an essential tool for the success of spacecraft powered by cryogenic propellants. The degree of ullage collapse can have a major impact on the design of cryogenic propellant tanks as well as the mission’s concept of operations. Additional commodities (e.g., helium gas for pressure control) and their quantities are dependent on the amount of heat transfer and phase change of propellants expected during flight. Currently, high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with heat transfer and phase change is the most accurate method for predicting ullage collapse. CFD simulations of this kind, however, can become very costly for problems requiring large domains, long simulation times, or significant liquid motion. Consequently, there is a need for a reduced order model to provide fast responses which can be used in engineering design decisions. The proposed numerical model is a nodal approach, augmented by outputs from CFD analyses that are generated rapidly and reliably. These outputs include transient values for liquid-vapor interface area, interface velocity, and liquid position using a volume of fluid (VoF) method. There are several benefits of combining a nodal approach with slosh predictions from CFD simulations: leveraging of the Loci/STREAM-VoF solver that has been validated in high-g and low-g environments, rapid modeling of VoF with isothermal propellant simplifications and relatively coarse meshes, and improved model predictions from the nodal tool. The nodal approach, informed by the slosh predictions from CFD, assumes uniform conditions in the liquid and gas domains. Modifications to account for temperature stratification in the liquid and gas may be implemented as a future improvement. Thermodynamic changes within the tank are solved at user-defined timesteps. First, impacts due to mass entering or leaving the control volume are captured. Second, heat transfer impacts are accounted for by tracking the volume of the gas which has been contacted by liquid in that timestep and rebalancing the internal energy. Finally, phase change is approximated using the area and velocity of the interface. The tank conditions are re-computed by conserving mass and energy. Calibration of the model to several test flights and experiments are required to baseline the predictive power and uncertainty. The final product will enable designers and engineers to create quick-turnaround predictions for ullage collapse and inform design feasibility.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

Some Thermodynamic Considerations on the Physical and Quantum Nature of Space and Time

It is suggested that the Planck h = m(sub k)c Lambda(sub k) and the Boltzmann k = m(sub k)c nu(sub k)Constants have stochastic foundation. It is further suggested that a body of fluid at equilibrium is composed of a spectrum of molecular clusters (energy levels) the size of which are governed by the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution function. Brownian motions are attributed to equilibrium between suspensions and molecular clusters. Atomic (molecular) transition between different size atomic- (molecular-) clusters (energy levels) is shown to result in emission/absorption of energy in accordance with Bohr's theory of atomic spectra. Physical space is identified as a tachyonic fluid that is Dirac's stochastic ether or de Broglie's hidden thermostat. Compressibility of physical space, in accordance with Planck's compressible ether, is shown to result in the Lorentz-Fitzgerald contraction, thus providing a causal explanation of relativistic effect in accordance with the perceptions of Poincare and Lorentz. The invariant Schrodinger equation is derived from the invariant Bernoulli equation for incompressible potential flow. Following Heisenberg a temporal uncertainty relation is introduced as Delta(nu(sub Beta)) Delta(Rho(sub Beta)) > = k.

Sohrab, Siavash H.↗

Synergy of Satellite Radiation, Precipitation, and Other Meteorological Variable Observations for Global Mean Sea Surface Turbulent Heat Flux Estimation

Sea surface turbulent heat flux is one of the key components in global freshwater and energy balances and plays an important role in atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics and general circulation. This turbulent heat flux is dominantly decided by sea surface latent heat release with some contribution from sensible heat exchange. The flux and its anomaly could significantly affect ocean heat storage and ocean circulation. They are part of and have great impacts on climate variability. Though the turbulent heat flux is extremely important for the climate and weather systems, only very limited ship and buoy observations of the flux are available over open oceans. There are no global, operational, direct measurements of this crucial meteorological variable. Global estimates are, basically, indirectly calculated from bulk turbulent flux parameterization with a combination of satellite column water vapor, sea surface water temperature, and wind speed observations. Critical parameters such as sea surface air temperature and humidity are estimated from empirical relations of theses variables with the water vapor and sea surface water temperature, respectively. Lacking accurate knowledge on surface air temperature and humidity, uncertainties in the parameterization and potential changes in the non-linear turbulent processes with long-term climate variations could cause large errors in estimated long-term turbulent fluxes from the indirect method as shown in current global sea surface turbulent flux datasets. This study uses synergized data of satellite global radiation, precipitation, and other meteorological variable observations to estimate sea surface turbulent heat fluxes. The radiation observations are made by the satellite Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensors, while the global precipitation data is from NASA’s satellite Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Other data includes satellite sea surface water temperature and wind speed observations. These datasets are obtained from a wide range of space sensors from passive to active instruments and from visible and near infrared to thermal infrared and microwave spectral sounders. One significant feature of these datasets is that they have multi-decades long climate records. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation and its anomaly represents the net heat energy input to the climate system, and the oceanic precipitation and ocean-land moisture transport can be used to quantify sea surface latent heat release. Based on the synergized datasets and the principle of global water and energy balances, global mean turbulent heat fluxes are estimated. The turbulent heat anomalies for the first two decades of the 21st century are, then, obtained mainly from global CERES radiation and GPCP precipitation anomalies, along with CERES derived ocean-land heat transports. Analysis indicates that the uncertainties in the estimated turbulent flux anomalies may be reduced considerably. The results suggest a strong needs in synchronized and synergized observations of atmospheric radiation, precipitation, and oceanic meteorological variables for long-term climate studies.

Bing Lin↗

The Operational MODIS Cloud Optical and Microphysical Property Product: Overview of the Collection 6 Algorithm and Preliminary Results

Operational Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrievals of cloud optical and microphysical properties (part of the archived products MOD06 and MYD06, for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively) are currently being reprocessed along with other MODIS Atmosphere Team products. The latest "Collection 6" processing stream, which is expected to begin production by summer 2012, includes updates to the previous cloud retrieval algorithm along with new capabilities. The 1 km retrievals, based on well-known solar reflectance techniques, include cloud optical thickness, effective particle radius, and water path, as well as thermodynamic phase derived from a combination of solar and infrared tests. Being both global and of high spatial resolution requires an algorithm that is computationally efficient and can perform over all surface types. Collection 6 additions and enhancements include: (i) absolute effective particle radius retrievals derived separately from the 1.6 and 3.7 !-lm bands (instead of differences relative to the standard 2.1 !-lm retrieval), (ii) comprehensive look-up tables for cloud reflectance and emissivity (no asymptotic theory) with a wind-speed interpolated Cox-Munk BRDF for ocean surfaces, (iii) retrievals for both liquid water and ice phases for each pixel, and a subsequent determination of the phase based, in part, on effective radius retrieval outcomes for the two phases, (iv) new ice cloud radiative models using roughened particles with a specified habit, (v) updated spatially-complete global spectral surface albedo maps derived from MODIS Collection 5, (vi) enhanced pixel-level uncertainty calculations incorporating additional radiative error sources including the MODIS L1 B uncertainty index for assessing band and scene-dependent radiometric uncertainties, (v) and use of a new 1 km cloud top pressure/temperature algorithm (also part of MOD06) for atmospheric corrections and low cloud non-unity emissivity temperature adjustments.

Platnick, Steven↗

Deep Convective Cloud Top Heights and Their Thermodynamic Control During CRYSTAL-FACE

Infrared (11 micron) radiances from GOES-8 and local radiosonde profiles, collected during the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) in July 2002, are used to assess the vertical distribution of Florida-area deep convective cloud top height and test predictions as to its variation based on parcel theory. The highest infrared tops (Z(sub 11)) reached approximately to the cold point, though there is at least a 1-km uncertainty due to unknown cloud-environment temperature differences. Since lidar shows that visible 'tops' are 1 km or more above Z(sub 11), visible cloud tops frequently penetrated the lapse-rate tropopause (approx. 15 km). Further, since lofted ice content may be present up to approx. 1 km above the visible tops, lofting of moisture through the mean cold point (15.4 km) was probably common. Morning clouds, and those near Key West, rarely penetrated the tropopause. Non-entraining parcel theory (i.e., CAPE) does not successfully explain either of these results, but can explain some of the day-to-day variations in cloud top height over the peninsula. Further, moisture variations above the boundary layer account for most of the day-today variability not explained by CAPE, especially over the oceans. In all locations, a 20% increase in mean mixing ratio between 750 and 500 hPa was associated with about 1 km deeper maximum cloud penetration relative to the neutral level. These results suggest that parcel theory may be useful for predicting changes in cumulus cloud height over time, but that parcel entrainment must be taken into account even for the tallest clouds. Accordingly, relative humidity above the boundary layer may exert some control on the height of the tropical troposphere.

Sherwood, Steven C.↗

Constraining Arctic Climate Projections of Wintertime Warming With Surface Turbulent Flux Observations and Representation of Surface-Atmosphere Coupling

The drivers of rapid Arctic climate change—record sea ice loss, warming SSTs, and a lengthening of the sea ice melt season—compel us to understand how this complex system operates and use this knowledge to enhance Arctic predictability. Changing energy flows sparked by sea ice decline, spotlight atmosphere-surface coupling processes as central to Arctic system function and its climate change response. Despite this, the representation of surface turbulent flux parameterizations in models has not kept pace with our understanding. The large uncertainty in Arctic climate change projections, the central role of atmosphere-surface coupling, and the large discrepancy in model representation of surface turbulent fluxes indicates that these processes may serve as useful observational constraints on projected Arctic climate change. This possibility requires an evaluation of surface turbulent fluxes and their sensitivity to controlling factors (surface-air temperature and moisture differences, sea ice, and winds) within contemporary climate models (here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6). The influence of individual controlling factors and their interactions is diagnosed using a multi-linear regression approach. This evaluation is done for four sea ice loss regimes, determined from observational sea ice loss trends, to control for the confounding effects of natural variability between models and observations. The comparisons between satellite- and model-derived surface turbulent fluxes illustrate that while models capture the general sensitivity of surface turbulent fluxes to declining sea ice and to surface-air gradients of temperature and moisture, substantial mean state biases exist. Specifically, the central Arctic is too weak of a heat sink to the winter atmosphere compared to observations, with implications to the simulated atmospheric circulation variability and thermodynamic profiles. Models were found to be about 50% more efficient at turning an air-sea temperature gradient anomaly into a sensible heat flux anomaly relative to observations. Further, the influence of sea ice concentration on the sensible heat flux is underestimated in models compared to observations. The opposite is found for the latent heat flux variability in models; where the latent heat flux is too sensitive to a sea ice concentration anomaly. Lastly, the results suggest that present-day trends in sea ice retreat regions may serve as suitable observational constraints of projected Arctic warming.

turbulent fluxes↗

Systematic Differences between Satellite-Based Presipitation Climatologies over the Tropical Oceans

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. It is clear however that there still remain significant uncertainties with satellite precipitation retrievals which limit their usefulness for many purposes. Systematic differences i'A tropical precipitation estimates have been brought to light in comparison activities such as the GPCP Algorithm Intercomparison Project and more recent Wetnet Precipitation Intercomparison Project 3. These uncertainties are assuming more importance because of the demands for validation associated with global climate modeling and data assimilation methodologies. The objective of the present study is to determine the physical basis for systematic differences in spatial structure of tropical precipitation as portrayed by several different satellite-based data sets. The study is limited to oceanic regions only and deals primarily with aspects of spatial variability. We are specifically interested in why MSU channel 1 and GPI precipitation differences are so striking over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ and why they both differ from other microwave emission-based precipitation estimates from SSM/I and a scattering-based deep convective ice index from MSU channel 2. Our results to date have shown that MSU channel I precipitation estimates are biased high over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ because of two factors: (1) the hypersensitivity of this frequency to cloud water in contrast to falling rain drops, and (2) unaccounted for scattering effects by precipitation-size ice which depresses the signal of the liquid water emission. Likewise, cold cloud top climatologies such as the GPI show an excess (a deficit) in estimated rainfall over the E. Pacific ITCZ (Warm Pool region). We show that these algorithms need to account for regionally varying heights (or temperatures) at which tropical convection detrains to form cirrus shields. A second objective we pursue is to identify variations in the macroscale cloud physical and thermodynamic properties of precipitation regimes" and relate these differences to tropical dynamical mechanisms of tropical heat and moisture balance. Finally, we interpret the algorithm differences and their associations with tropical dynamics in terms of WCRP GPCP goals for constructing precipitation climatologies.

Robertson, Frankin R.↗