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Assessment of Satellite Surface Radiation Products in Highland Regions with Tibet Instrumental Data

This study presents results of comparisons between instrumental radiation data in the elevated Tibetan Plateau and two global satellite products: the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment - Surface Radiation Budget (GEWEX-SRB) and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project - Flux Data (ISCCP-FD). In general, shortwave radiation (SW) is estimated better by ISCCP-FD while longwave radiation (LW) is estimated better by GEWEX-SRB, but all the radiation components in both products are under-estimated. Severe and systematic errors were found in monthly-mean SRB SW (on plateau-average, -48 W/sq m for downward SW and -18 W/sq m for upward SW) and FD LW (on plateau-average, -37 W/sq m for downward LW and -62 W/sq m for upward LW) for radiation. Errors in monthly-mean diurnal variations are even larger than the monthly mean errors. Though the LW errors can be reduced about 10 W/sq m after a correction for altitude difference between the site and SRB and FD grids, these errors are still higher than that for other regions. The large errors in SRB SW was mainly due to a processing mistake for elevation effect, but the errors in SRB LW was mainly due to significant errors in input data. We suggest reprocessing satellite surface radiation budget data, at least for highland areas like Tibet.

Yang, Kun↗

Regional Replay: A Unique Reanalysis-Based Tool for Addressing Model Error

Understanding and correcting errors in general circulation and climate models has long been part intuition and part trial and error. Efforts to diagnose the errors and provide some guidance to developers have been of some value, though such efforts, with few exceptions, have been more successful in identifying and documenting the errors in the model simulations rather than the model deficiencies that produced them. Modern atmospheric reanalyses such as MERRA-2 provide much-improved estimates of our climate system at hourly to interannual and longer time scales and have become an important tool for assessing model performance. Here we use MERRA-2 to address biases in the NASA/GMAO GEOS model by employing a "regional replay" approach developed in the GMAO. The regional replay approach constrains the model to remain close to the reanalysis over arbitrary regions and selected model variables, thus allowing us to examine how model error generated over one area is spatially translated across the globe. Several examples are given including an assessment of the global impact of errors produced over the Tibet region.

Tibet Region↗

A Systematic Approach to Isolating the Causes and Impacts of Climate Model Bias Employing Analysis Increments

One of the most promising approaches to isolating the causes and understanding the impacts of climate model formulation errors is through the utilization of information contained in short-term forecast errors. The underlying assumption being that by capturing the errors at the very early stages of growth (before nonlinearities develop), we should be able to associate those errors with specific deficiencies in the model's formulation of the relevant physical processes. Here, we provide an example of utilizing the long-term mean of the 6-hourly analysis increments (first guess forecast minus analysis) produced by MERRA-2 to correct the NASA/GEOS AGCM over well-defined regions, thereby allowing us to quantify how the reduced tendency errors in these regions manifest themselves both locally and remotely through large-scale teleconnections to reduce the model's climatological biases. We extend previous work (focused on boreal summer) to address the full annual cycle of model bias. A key result is the large seasonality of the errors over the Tibet region and their impacts on the Northern Hemisphere jet biases, and related precipitation and temperature biases over North American. Attempts to correct the phase and amplitude errors of the climatological boreal winter ridge over western North America (a likely key requirement for improving winter climate forecasts over North America) reveal a surprising complexity in the sources of the errors in what is otherwise manifest as a rather simple PNA-like bias structure.

Schubert, S.↗

The Boreal Winter El Niño Precipitation Response over North America: Insights into Why January is More Difficult to Predict than February

This study examines the within−season monthly variation of the El Niño response over North America during December−March using the NASA/GEOS model. In agreement with previous studies, the skill of 1−month lead GEOS coupled model forecasts of precipitation over North America is largest (smallest) for February (January), with similar results in uncoupled mode. A key finding is that the relatively poor January skillis the result ofthe model placing the main circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific slightly to the west of the observed, resulting inprecipitation anomalies that lie off the coast instead of over land as observed. In contrast, during February the observed circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific shifts westward, lining up with the predicted anomaly which is essentially unchanged from January, resulting in both the observed and predicted precipitation anomalies remaining off the coast. Furthermore, the largest precipitation anomalies occur along the southern tier of states associated with an eastward extended jet–something that the models capture reasonably well. Simulations with a stationary wave model indicate that the placement of January El Niño response to the west of the observed over the northeast Pacificis the result of biases in the January climatological stationary waves, rather than errors in the tropical Pacific El Niño heating anomalies in January. Furthermore, evidence is provided that the relatively poor simulation of the observed January climatology, characterized by a strengthened North Pacific jet and enhanced ridge over western North America, can be traced back to biases in the January climatology heating over the Tibet region and the tropical western Pacific.

Young-kwon Lim↗

Analysis of gravity, magnetic, and seismic reflection data from Tibet and neighboring regions of China

Our principal effort was devoted to completing the analysis of the new gravity data over the Tibet plateau and its margins. A paper was completed discussing the statistical relationship between gravity and topography over the plateau. A paper on the structure of the Tarim Basin as constrained by Love wave dispersion is also under completion. This research project has also supported research on the newly-released gravity data from the former Soviet Union.

Mcnutt, Marcia↗

Satellite remote sensing of cloud distribution and amount of rainfall over the Tibet Plateau area of China

The use of images from the GOES-1 satellite to study mesoscale convective clouds over the Tibet Plateau region in China is discussed. The correlation between the quantity of rainfall observed at the ground and the cloud volume dissipation per unit area as determined from satellite IR imagery is examined. It is shown that this relationship is almost linear for the rainfall rate exceeding 8 mm/day.

Hung, R. J.↗

Neotectonics of Asia: Thin-shell finite-element models with faults

As India pushed into and beneath the south margin of Asia in Cenozoic time, it added a great volume of crust, which may have been (1) emplaced locally beneath Tibet, (2) distributed as regional crustal thickening of Asia, (3) converted to mantle eclogite by high-pressure metamorphism, or (4) extruded eastward to increase the area of Asia. The amount of eastward extrusion is especially controversial: plane-stress computer models of finite strain in a continuum lithosphere show minimal escape, while laboratory and theoretical plane-strain models of finite strain in a faulted lithosphere show escape as the dominant mode. We suggest computing the present (or neo)tectonics by use of the known fault network and available data on fault activity, geodesy, and stress to select the best model. We apply a new thin-shell method which can represent a faulted lithosphere of realistic rheology on a sphere, and provided predictions of present velocities, fault slip rates, and stresses for various trial rheologies and boundary conditions. To minimize artificial boundaries, the models include all of Asia east of 40 deg E and span 100 deg on the globe. The primary unknowns are the friction coefficient of faults within Asia and the amounts of shear traction applied to Asia in the Himalayan and oceanic subduction zones at its margins. Data on Quaternary fault activity prove to be most useful in rating the models. Best results are obtained with a very low fault friction of 0.085. This major heterogeneity shows that unfaulted continum models cannot be expected to give accurate simulations of the orogeny. But, even with such weak faults, only a fraction of the internal deformation is expressed as fault slip; this means that rigid microplate models cannot represent the kinematics either. A universal feature of the better models is that eastern China and southeast Asia flow rapidly eastward with respect to Siberia. The rate of escape is very sensitive to the level of shear traction in the Pacific subduction zones, which is below 6 MPa. Because this flow occurs across a wide range of latitudes, the net eastward escape is greater than the rate of crustal addition in the Himalaya. The crustal budget is balanced by extension and thinning, primarily within the Tibetan plateau and the Baikal rift. The low level of deviation stresses in the best models suggests that topographic stress plays a major role in the orogeny; thus, we have to expect that different topography in the past may have been linked with fundamentally different modes of continental collision.

Kong, Xianghong↗

The atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan plateau May-August 1979

Estimates of the time and space variability of the atmospheric heat source over Tibet are presented for the summer of 1979. These estimates rely on new data from the People's Republic of China allowing a better assessment of the surface heat fluxes, and on new satellite data from Nimbus-7 giving the radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere. The estimates of the atmospheric heat source turned out to be considerably smaller than those provided earlier in the literature, mainly because of different assumptions of the drag coefficient. The atmospheric heat source over Tibet is mainly modulated by the release of latent heat. Over the southeastern and southwestern plateau regions the heat source appears to be in phase with the precipitation yield of the Indian summer monsoon, whereas central Tibet reveals an out-of-phase behavior. Over western Tibet there appears to be hardly any net import of moisture from outside the region, whereas the maintenance of the hydrological cycle over eastern Tibet requires moisture flux convergence from outside the region of up to 40 percent of the mean rainfall, in agreement with what is known about the surface hydrology of Tibet.

Chen, L.↗

Lateral heterogeneity and azimuthal anistropy of the upper mantle: Love and Rayleigh waves 100-250 sec

The lateral heterogeneity and apparent anisotropy of the upper mantle are studied by measuring Rayleigh and Love wave phase velocities in the period range 100-250 sec. Spherical harmonic descriptions of the lateral heterogeneity are obtained for order and degree up to 1=m=10. Slow regions are evident at the East Pacific rise, northeast Africa, Tibet, Tasman sea, southwestern North America and triple junctions in the Northern Atlantic and Indian oceans. Fast regions occur in Australia, western Pacific and the eastern Atlantic. Details which are not evident in previous studies include two fast regions in the central Pacific and the subduction zone in the Scotia Arc region. Inversion for azimuthal dependence showed (1) little correlation between the fast phase velocity directions and the plate motion vector in plate interiors, but (2) correlation of the fast direction with the perpendicular direction to trenches and ridges. Phase velocity is high when waves propagate perpendicular to these structures. Severe tradeoffs exist between heterogeneity and azimuthal dependence because of the yet unsatisfactory path coverage.

Tanimoto, T.↗

Lateral heterogeneity and azimuthal anisotropy of the upper mantle - Love and Rayleigh waves 100-250 sec

The lateral heterogeneity and apparent anisotropy of the upper mantle are studied by measuring Rayleigh and Love wave phase velocities in the period range 100-250 sec. Spherical harmonic descriptions of the lateral heterogeneity are obtained for order and degree up to 1=m=10. Slow regions are evident at the East Pacific rise, northeast Africa, Tibet, Tasman sea, southwestern North America and triple junctions in the Northern Atlantic and Indian oceans. Fast regions occur in Australia, western Pacific and the eastern Atlantic. Details which are not evident in previous studies include two fast regions in the central Pacific and the subduction zone in the Scotia Arc region. Inversion for azimuthal dependence showed (1) little correlation between the fast phase velocity directions and the plate motion vector in plate interiors, but (2) correlation of the fast direction with the perpendicular direction to trenches and ridges. Phase velocity is high when waves propagate perpendicular to these structures. Severe tradeoffs exist between heterogeneity and azimuthal dependence because of the yet unsatisfactory path coverage.

Tanimoto, T.↗

P-wave residuals at stations in Nepal - Evidence for a high velocity region beneath the Karakorum

P-wave residuals recorded at stations in Nepal from events to the northwest and closer than about 20 deg are consistently earlier than those from other directions by about 2.5 sec. These early arrivals are associated with paths confined to the upper 300 km of the earth and suggest that cold material occupies the uppermost mantle beneath the Karakorum, northwest Himalaya, and western Kunlun. Thus, these data suggest that convective downwelling occurs more vigorously in this region than beneath the rest of the Himalaya, Tibet, and their surroundings.

Pandey, M. R.↗

Historical and Future Black Carbon Deposition on the Three Ice Caps: Ice Core Measurements and Model Simulations from 1850 to 2100

Ice core measurements in conjunction with climate model simulations are of tremendous value when examining anthropogenic and natural aerosol loads and their role in past and future climates. Refractory black carbon (BC) records from the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the Himalayas are analyzed using three transient climate simulations performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Simulations differ in aerosol schemes (bulk aerosols vs. aerosol microphysics) and ocean couplings (fully coupled vs. prescribed ocean). Regional analyses for past (1850-2005) and future (2005-2100) carbonaceous aerosol simulations focus on the Antarctic, Greenland, and the Himalayas. Measurements from locations in the Antarctic show clean conditions with no detectable trend over the past 150 years. Historical atmospheric deposition of BC and sulfur in Greenland shows strong trends and is primarily influenced by emissions from early twentieth century agricultural and domestic practices. Models fail to reproduce observations of a sharp eightfold BC increase in Greenland at the beginning of the twentieth century that could be due to the only threefold increase in the North American emission inventory. BC deposition in Greenland is about 10 times greater than in Antarctica and 10 times less than in Tibet. The Himalayas show the most complicated transport patterns, due to the complex terrain and dynamical regimes of this region. Projections of future climate based on the four CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways indicate further dramatic advances of pollution to the Tibetan Plateau along with decreasing BC deposition fluxes in Greenland and the Antarctic.

Antarctic Regions↗

Preliminary conclusions of the Royal Society and Academia Sinica 1985 geotraverse of Tibet

The preliminary fieldwork results of a geological traverse across the high Tibetan plateau during June and July 1985 are presented. An effort was made to investigate the origin and chronology of successive collisions of continental fragments with Laurasian or Gondwanian provenance, and to ascertain how the crust of Tibet was thickened. The traverse followed the 1150-km-long Lhasa-Golmud highway; the pre-Cenzoic geology of the region is described from north to south.

Chang, Chengfa↗

Optical Observations of Lightning in Northern India Himalayan Mountain Countries and Tibet

This study summarizes the results of an analysis of data from the LIS instrument on the TRMM platform. The data for the Indian summer monsoon season is examined to study the seasonal patterns of the geographic and diurnal distribution of lightning storms. The storms on the Tibetan plateau show a single large diurnal peak at about 1400 local solar time. A region of Northern Pakistan has two storm peaks at 0200 and 1400 local solar time. The morning peak is half the magnitude of the afternoon peak. The region south of the Himalayan Mountains has a combined diurnal cycle in location and time of storm occurrence.

Boeck, William L.↗

Optical Observations of Lightning in Northern India, Himalayan Mountain Countries and Tibet

This study summarizes the results of an analysis of data from the LIS instrument on the TRMM platform. The data for the Indian summer monsoon season is examined to study the seasonal patterns of the geographic and diurnal distribution of lightning storms. The storms on the Tibetan plateau show a single large diurnal peak at about 1400 local solar time. A region of Northern Pakistan has two storm peaks at 0200 and 1400 local solar time. The morning peak is half the magnitude of the afternoon peak. The region south of the Himalayan Mountains has a combined diurnal cycle in location and time of storm occurrence.

Boeck, W. L.↗

A numerical study of process complexity in permafrost dominated regions

Numerical modeling of permafrost dynamics requires adequate representation of atmospheric and surface processes, a reasonable parameter estimation strategy, and site-specific model development. The three main research objectives of the study are: (i) to propose a novel methodology that determines the required level of surface process complexity of permafrost models by conducting parameter sensitivity and calibration, (ii) to design and compare three numerical models of increasing surface process complexity, and (iii) to calibrate and validate the numerical models at the Yakou catchment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as an exemplary study site. The calibration was carried out by coupling the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (numerical model) and PEST (calibration tool). Simulation results showed that (i) A simple numerical model that considers only subsurface processes can simulate active layer development with the same accuracy as other more complex models that include surface processes. (ii) Peat and mineral soil layer permeability, Van Genuchten alpha, and porosity are highly sensitive. (iii) Liquid precipitation aids in increasing the rate of permafrost degradation. (iv) Deposition of snow insulated the subsurface during the thaw initiation period. We have developed and released an integrated code that couples the numerical software ATS to the calibration software PEST. The numerical model can be further used to determine the impacts of climate change on permafrost degradation.

Calibration↗

The atmospheric heat budget over the western part of the Tibetan plateau during MONEX, 1979

The heat sources over the western part of the Tibetan Plateau for the period from May 19-August 31, 1979 are calculated. The use of the direct method to compute the total atmospheric heat source is examined. The values for the heat source over western, northwestern, and southwestern Tibet are presented. It is concluded that the atmospheric heat source is smaller during the summer than had been previously estimated; this difference is due to reduced drag coefficients. The northwestern and southwestern heat source values are compared, and it is observed that the northwestern heat source is independent on sensible heating and the southwestern heat source relates to the latent heat (LH). The calculated values correlate with the surface hydrology of these two regions. Time series analyses of the heat source components over the southwestern region reveal that LH is the primary modulator of the total atmospheric heat sources. The relation between the vertical heat distribution and Indian summer monsoons is studied.

Feng, Z.↗