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NASA NTRS2016

Reducing Departure Delays for Adjacent Center Airports using Time-Based Flow Management Scheduler: Checkbox On or Off?

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has enhanced the Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) scheduling tool with a "Checkbox ON" vs. "OFF" function which allows Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) to make room in a crowded arrival stream for a departure. When scheduling a departure, having the checkbox ON can delay the Scheduled Times of Arrivals (STAs) of the airborne flights upstream of the TBFM freeze horizons and can compress these flights to their minimum required spacing, thereby creating a slot for a departure. Hence, having the checkbox ON can reduce the frequent ground delays of aircraft departing near high volume airports but can increase delays for airborne arrivals. A Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) simulation compared arrival and departure delays to Newark Airport (EWR) with the checkbox ON vs. OFF as the default position. Three other conditions in this HITL involved various National Airspace System (NAS)-wide approaches for timely delivery of aircraft to the TBFM region. These conditions were: Baseline, using current Mile-in-Trail (MIT) spacing restrictions; Integrated Demand Management (IDM), where all aircraft were given departure times (Expect Departure Clearance Times, or EDCTs), ultimately based on the EWR Airport Arrival Rate; and IDM plus Required Time of Arrival (RTA), a flight deck tool which allowed some aircraft to meet a controlled time of arrival to the TBFM area more precisely. Results showed that the checkbox tool was powerful: with the checkbox ON, departure delays decreased and airborne delays increased, as predicted. However, assuming that the cost ratio of a minute of airborne delay to a minute of departure delay is in the range of 1.2 to 3, as commonly indicated by the literature, checkbox ON and checkbox OFF conditions showed approximately equal total delay costs, i.e., the cost of delays in the air balanced the cost of the delay on the ground. The three scheduling conditions also had approximately equal total delay costs, although a simulation artifact may have reduced the delays in the Baseline condition. In the debrief following the simulation, the TMCs concluded that the checkbox should be used flexibly depending on the current delay situation, and suggested modifications to the checkbox tool which would help them use it in this way, along with enhanced training. The relatively similar total cost of both checkbox default options in this simulation indicates that this might be a fruitful approach, and replace the necessity to have the checkbox rigidly set to either ON or OFF.

departure delay↗

NASA NTRS2016

NY TBO Research: Integrated Demand Management (IDM): IDM Concept, Tools, and Training Package

A series of human-in-the-loop simulation sessions were conducted in the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) to evaluate a new traffic management concept called Integrated Demand Management (IDM). The simulation explored how to address chronic equity, throughput and delay issues associated with New Yorks high-volume airports by operationally integrating three current and NextGen capabilities the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP), Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) and Required Time of Arrival (RTA) in order to better manage traffic demand within the National Air Traffic System. A package of presentation slides was developed to describe the concept, tools, and training materials used in the simulation sessions. The package will be used to outbrief our stakeholders by both presenting orally and disseminating of the materials via email.

trajectory-based operations↗

NASA NTRS2017

Evaluation of Integrated Demand Management Looking into Strategic & Tactical Flow Management

The motivation behind Integrated Demand Management (IDM) research is to explore possible improvements to United States National Airspace System (NAS) performance that could be realized through procedural integration of strategic traffic flow management capabilities, such as the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP), and tactical capabilities, such as Time Based Flow Management (TBFM). An initial IDM concept for clear weather operations was developed and evaluated for potential benefits, including efficiency, delay reduction, predictability and throughput, and to identify any major issues that might represent a showstopper for a fielded application. Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) arrival operations provided a use case for concept development. EWR uses miles-in-trail (MIT) metering to regulate demand into TBFM during high volume operations, and short-haul flights are often penalized with excessive, last-minute ground delays when the overhead stream is saturated. IDM addresses this problem by replacing MIT conditioning with CTOP to better manage the demand delivery to the TBFM entry points. A quasi-real time high-fidelity simulation that would normally involve participants was conducted using heuristic-based procedures that mimicked operators behaviors instead. Five total conditions were compared: two baseline conditions with MIT delivery to TBFM entry points using two different TBFM settings; and three IDM conditions: one with airborne speed control using an Required Time of Arrival (RTA) capability, a second without RTA, and a third with no wind forecast errors. Results suggest that the IDM concept can deliver traffic more efficiently by shifting the delays from airborne to ground for both RTA and non-RTA conditions, while maintaining a target throughput rate. The results also suggest that with good predictability of airport capacity, excessive TBFM ground delay can be minimized by applying more strategic CTOP delay, increasing predictability for the airline operators. Overall, the results indicate that the implementation of an IDM concept under clear weather conditions can improve NAS system performance. Future IDM research aims to expand the concept to address demandcapacity imbalance d severe weather.

Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM)↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Different Trajectory Option Set Participation Levels within an Air Traffic Management Collaborative Trajectory Option Program

This paper presents the methodology and results of a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) simulation study conducted in the Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASA Ames Research Center. This study is a part of NASA's ongoing research into developing an Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept, whose aim is to improve traffic flow management (TFM) by coordinating the FAA's strategic Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) with its more tactical Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system. The purpose of TFM is to regulate air traffic demand so that it is delivered efficiently through constrained airspace resources without exceeding their capacity limits. The IDM concept leverages a new TFMS capability called the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) to strategically pre-condition traffic demand flowing into a TBFM-managed arrival environment, where TBFM is responsible for managing traffic tactically by generating precise arrival schedules. Unlike other TFM tools, CTOP gives flight operators the option of submitting a set of user-preferred alternative trajectories for each flight. CTOP can then use these trajectory option sets (or TOSs) to find user-preferred alternative routes to reduce demand on an overloaded resource. CTOP's effectiveness in redistributing demand is limited, however, by the availability of flights with alternative routes. The research presented in this paper focuses on evaluating the impact on TFM operations by varying the percentage of flights that submit a multiple-option TOS ('TOS participation levels'). Results show the impact on overall system performance and on the rerouted flights themselves. The simulation used a Newark (EWR) airport arrival scenario, with en route weather affecting traffic inbound from the west. Participants were asked to control each of the three arrival flows (north, west, and south) to meet their individual capacity constraints while simultaneously ensuring efficient utilization of the capacity at the destination airport. A large, permeable convective weather cell located southeast of Chicago severely reduced the capacity of the west flow. The study evaluated the impact of five different TOS participation levels on CTOP's ability to re-allocate traffic from the west and improve TFM performance in terms of delay assignment and traffic delivery rate to the airport. Overall, the results showed that increasing TOS submissions allowed the overall system delays to be reduced and fairly distributed among the three arrival flows, at the same time achieving the airport throughput rate. Moreover, it was found that aircraft who submitted a TOS saw a greater reduction in delay, even when they were assigned longer routes. This was particularly true when fewer aircraft submitted a TOS. The results confirm that the CTOP operations with higher TOS participation levels helped utilize the overall National Airspace System (NAS) resources as well as benefited the users who participated.

Yoo, Hyo-Sang↗

NASA NTRS2020

Benefit Assessment of the Integrated Demand Management Concept for Multiple New York Metroplex Airports

Benefits of the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept were assessed utilizing a newly developed automated simulation capability called ‘Traffic Management Initiative Automated Simulation (TMIAutoSim).’ The IDM concept focuses on improving traffic flow management (TFM) by coordinating the FAA’s strategic Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) with its more tactical Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system. The IDM concept leverages a new TFMS capability called Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) to strategically pre-condition traffic demand flowing into a TBFM-managed arrival environment, where TBFM is responsible for tactically managing traffic by generating precise arrival schedules. The IDM concept was developed over a multi-year effort, focusing on solving New York metroplex airport arrival problems. TMIAutoSim closely mimics NASA’s high-fidelity simulation capabilities while enabling more data to be collected at higher speed. Using this new capability, the IDM concept was evaluated using realistic traffic across various weather scenarios. Six representative weather days were selected after clustering three months of historical data. For those selected six days, Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) and LaGuardia Airport (LGA) arrival traffic scenarios were developed. For each selected day, the historical data were analyzed to accurately simulate actual operations and the weather impact of the day. The current day operations and the IDM concept operations were simulated for the same weather scenarios and the results were compared. The selected six days were categorized into two groups: ‘clear weather’ for days without Ground Delay Programs (GDP) and ‘convective weather’ for days with GDP and significant weather around New York metroplex airports. For the clear weather scenarios, IDM operations reduced last minute, unanticipated departure delays for short-haul flights within TBFM control boundaries with minimal to no impact on throughput and total delay. For the convective weather scenarios, IDM significantly reduced delays and increased throughput to the destination airports.

Traffic Management Initiative Automated Simulation↗

NASA NTRS2017

Development and Validation of an Automated Simulation Capability in Support of Integrated Demand Management

Integrated Demand Management (IDM) is a near- to mid-term NASA concept that proposes to address mismatches in air traffic system demand and capacity by using strategic flow management capabilities to pre-condition demand into the more tactical Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM). This paper describes an automated simulation capability to support IDM concept development. The capability closely mimics existing human-in-the-loop (HITL) capabilities, automating both the human components and collaboration between operational systems, and speeding up the real-time aircraft simulations. Such a capability allows for parametric studies that will inform the HITL simulations, identifying breaking points and parameter values at which significant changes in system behavior occur. This paper also describes the initial validation of individual components of the automated simulation capability, and an example application comparing the performance of the IDM concept under two TBFM scheduling paradigms. The results and conclusions from this simulation compare closely to those from previous HITL simulations using similar scenarios, providing an initial validation of the automated simulation capability.

Integrated Demand Management↗

NASA NTRS2017

Development and Validation of an Automated Simulation Capability in Support of Integrated Demand Management

Integrated Demand Management (IDM) is a near- to mid-term NASA concept that proposes to address mismatches in air traffic system demand and capacity by using strategic flow management capabilities to pre-condition demand into the more tactical Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM). This paper describes an automated simulation capability to support IDM concept development. The capability closely mimics existing human-in-the-loop (HITL) capabilities, while automating both the human components and collaboration between operational systems, and speeding up the real-time aircraft simulations. Such a capability allows for parametric studies to be carried out that can inform the HITL simulations, identifying breaking points and parameter values at which significant changes in system behavior occur. The paper describes the initial validation of the automated simulation capability against results from previous IDM HITL experiments, quantifying the differences. The simulator is then used to explore the performance of the IDM concept under the simple scenario of a capacity constrained airport under a wide range of wind conditions.

Traffic Flow Management↗

NASA NTRS2017

Integrated Demand Management: Minimizing Unanticipated Excessive Departure Delay while Ensuring Fairness from a Traffic Management Initiative

This paper introduces NASA's Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept and presents the results from an early proof-of-concept evaluation and an exploratory experiment. An initial development of the concept was focused on integrating two systems - i.e. the FAA's newly deployed Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) tool called the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) and the Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system with Extended Metering (XM) capabilities to manage projected heavy traffic demand into a capacity-constrained airport. A human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation experiment was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the initial development of the concept by adapting it to an arrival traffic problem at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) during clear weather conditions. In this study, the CTOP was utilized to strategically plan the arrival traffic demand by controlling take-off times of both short- and long-haul flights (long-hauls specify aircraft outside TBFM regions and short-hauls specify aircraft within TBFM regions) in a way that results in equitable delays among the groups. Such strategic planning allows less airborne delay to occur within TBFM by feeding manageable long-haul traffic demand while reserving sufficient slots in the overhead streams for the short-haul departures. The manageable traffic demand indicates the TBFM scheduler assigns no more airborne delay than its assigned airspace is capable of absorbing. TBFM then uses its time-based metering capabilities to deliver the desirable throughput by tactically rescheduling the TBFM entered long-haul flights and short-haul departures. Additional research was also performed to explore use of Required Time of Arrival (RTA) capabilities as a potential control mechanism for the airborne flights to improve arrival traffic delivery accuracy of scheduled long-haul traffic demand. The study results show that both short- and long-haul flights received similar ground delays. In addition, there was a noticeable reduction in the total amount of excessive unanticipated last-minute ground delays, i.e. delays that are frequently imposed on the short-haul flight in current day operations due to saturation in the overhead stream, commonly referred to as 'double penalty'. Furthermore, the concept achieved the target throughput while minimizing the expected cost associated with overall delays in arrival traffic. Assessment of the RTA capabilities showed that there was indeed improvement of the scheduled entry times into TBFM regions by using RTA capabilities. However, with respect to reduction in delays incurred within TBFM, there was no observable benefit of improving the precision of long-haul flights entry times.

Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP)↗

NASA NTRS2015

Scheduling and Delivering Aircraft to Departure Fixes in the NY Metroplex with Controller-Managed Spacing Tools

In this paper, successful Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) scheduling systems for arrivals are considered and adapted to apply to departures. We present a concept of operations that integrates Controller-Managed Spacing tools for departures (CMS-D) with existing tactical departure scheduling tools to coordinate demand at departure fixes in a metroplex environment. We tested our concept in a Human-in-the-Loop simulation and compared the effect of two scheduling conditions: 1) "Departure Scheduling" consisting of an emulation of the Integrated Departure and Arrival Capability (IDAC) where Towers and a Planner (Traffic Management Coordinator at the appropriate facility) coordinate aircraft scheduled takeoff times to departure fixes; and 2) "Arrival Sensitive Departure Scheduling" where, in addition, the Tower and Planner also consider arrival Scheduled Time of Arrivals (STAs) at the airport's dependent runway. Results indicate little difference between the two scheduling conditions, but a large difference between the No Tools and the two scheduling conditions with CMS-D tools. The scheduling/CMS-D tools conditions markedly reduced heading, speed clearances, and workload for controllers who were merging flows at the departure fixes. In the tool conditions, departure controllers conditioned departures earlier rather than later when aircraft were tied near the departure fixes. In the scheduling/CMS-D tools conditions, departures crossed the departure fixes 50 seconds earlier and with an 8% error rate (consisting of time ahead or behind desired time of arrival) compared to a 19% error rate in the No Tool condition. Two exploratory runs showed that similar beneficial effects can be obtained only with the CMS-D tools without scheduling takeoff times, but at the cost of a somewhat higher workload for controllers, indicating the benefits of pre-departure scheduling of aircraft with minimal delays. Hence, we found that CMS-D tools were very beneficial in the metroplex environment we tested but that further research is needed to clarify the benefits of the various scheduling approaches.

terminal airspace↗

NASA NTRS2013

Research Traffic Management Advisor (rTMA) Up-level Final Report

The FAA Time Based Flow Management (TBFM) Program provides for operational use and continued development of the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) technology that NASA demonstrated in 1996. Although NASA's Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) software baseline includes advanced versions of TMA, some research activities are better served by a version of TMA that more closely matches the FAA's TBFM software. Beginning in 2009, NASA created Research TMA (rTMA) to enable researchers to work with FAA TBFM software in a research environment. The original rTMA was derived from TBFM v3.10 and later up-leveled to TBFM v3.12. This report documents the most recent up-level effort in which rTMA was re-derived from TBFM v4.00.07.

traffic management↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular perceived inequity that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based scheduling of internal departures by the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) (now operationally superseded by the FAA's the Time-Based Flow Management system). Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot easily fit into the arrival flow at the runway. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. TMA scheduling delays are found to be generally higher than TMA airborne metering delays, regardless of prior GDP delays. Depending on how the double delay is defined, between 42 and 62 of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling experienced double delays in this period. A deep dive into the data reveals that contributors to double delays include upstream flights departing before their Expect Departure Clearance Times (EDCTs); differences in the rates used for setting EDCTs and TMA Scheduled Times of Arrival; differences in the arrival demand expected based on EDCTs and the arrival demand entering TMA; and shorter en route times between takeoff and entry into TMA than assumed in the calculation of flight EDCTs, all of which undermine the sequencing and spacing underlying flight EDCTs. Double delays are also found to coincide with periods in which the virtual runway arrival queue being served by a TMA is large, there are periods of high demand relative to capacity, and there are high airborne metering delays. Data mining techniques are used to confirm that each of these factors contribute to the occurrence of double delay andor high internal departure scheduling delay across three months of data from June to August 2010. Predictors of the occurrence of double delay and high TMA scheduling delay are built using logistic regression, providing prediction accuracies of 69 and 73, respectively.

traffic flow management↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Demonstrating Early-Adopter Benefits of Submitting Multiple Trajectory Options for Airlines

A workshop at NASA Ames Research Center was held with airline industry stakeholders to demonstrate the impact of using Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) during a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) for severe weather operations. The demonstration was conducted using apart-task Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) simulation of the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept, which is an air traffic management method that uses CTOP to deliver preconditioned traffic to the Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) region. The demonstration addressed the following research objectives: first, determine who receives a greater benefit, TOS-participating or TOS-excluded airlines? Second, determine which method of trajectory selection yields a better solution, human/manual selection or automation? Finally, obtain feedback from stakeholders on their impression of the concept and recommendations for future work. The results showed that TOS-participating airlines received greater benefit in terms of total ground delay, ground delay savings, number of reroute options, and additional flight time, compared to TOS-excluded airlines. However, this result was dependent on the situational context, such as the number and location of flights. We found that all airlines benefitted when just a subset of airlines submitted TOS, but the greatest benefit went to the TOS-participating airlines. These benefits to the TOS-participating airlines were diminished as the number of TOS-participants in the system increased. Therefore, there was an “early-adopter” effect that suggested airlines could benefit by becoming the first to equip TOS without causing unfair disadvantages to those who do not equip TOS. In addition, we found that manual selection of trajectory options performed similarly to CTOP, but the CTOP solution was more efficient in terms of number of reroutes, additional flight time, and average ground delay for rerouted flights. Feedback from the stakeholders was solicited, and their overall impressions of the demonstrations were positive. They remarked that CTOP could do a better job than current day solutions, and they thought airlines could benefit from continuing to develop TOS capabilities.

Integrated Demand Management↗

NASA NTRS2020

Integrated Demand Management: Concepts and Procedures

This report provides a comprehensive description of the Integrated Demand Management concept. Motivation: NASA’s Integrated Demand Management (IDM) research explores the idea that, under certain conditions, time-based flow management (TBFM) arrival operations can benefit from the coordinated use of a strategic traffic management initiative (TMI) to “precondition” the inbound demand. The research was motivated by the observation that TBFM was usually turned off during convective weather, even in facilities where it was routinely used. Our hypothesis was that strategic adjustments to the inbound traffic so that it provided a better match to the off-nominal changes in capacity observed during these conditions could enable TBFM scheduling to continue to provide effective support for arrival traffic management. Concept: IDM proposes that a TMI (e.g., a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program, or CTOP) be used to adjust the rate and/or geographic distribution across flows of the traffic inbound to a high-demand, TBFM-managed airport before that traffic reaches the TBFM planning horizon. After this strategic preconditioning, TBFM can then tactically fine-tune the demand to deliver a well-managed, orderly feed to the destination airport. Coordinated use of these two flow management capabilities is intended to improve system performance in terms of: • Equity of ground delay assignment, avoiding excessive ground delay for TBFM-scheduled departures, without penalizing longer flights; • Throughput, by distributing traffic to maximize use of available capacity; • Predictability for operators, providing advance notice about the impact on individual flights; • Increased flexibility, supporting operator mitigation strategies such as slot swapping or trajectory options; • Efficiency of flight operations, using ground delay more effectively and reducing airborne delay. The operational description in this document highlights how the IDM concept builds upon already existing tools and procedures, and also indicates where tool enhancements could facilitate conduct of IDM operations. However, enhanced tools are not a requirement for concept introduction. In fact, initial deployment that focused on training procedures and rationale for coordinated use of TFMS and TBFM, without changes to existing tools, might be a simpler way to introduce and to familiarize traffic managers with the idea of preconditioning. The concept and procedures described in this document can hopefully provide useful guidance for introduction of IDM into field operations..

IDM↗

NASA NTRS2015

Methodology to Define Delivery Accuracy Under Current Day ATC Operations

In order to enable arrival management concepts and solutions in a NextGen environment, ground- based sequencing and scheduling functions have been developed to support metering operations in the National Airspace System. These sequencing and scheduling algorithms as well as tools are designed to aid air traffic controllers in developing an overall arrival strategy. The ground systems being developed will support the management of aircraft to their Scheduled Times of Arrival (STAs) at flow-constrained meter points. This paper presents a methodology for determining the undelayed delivery accuracy for current day air traffic control operations. This new method analyzes the undelayed delivery accuracy at meter points in order to understand changes of desired flow rates as well as enabling definition of metrics that will allow near-future ground automation tools to successfully achieve desired separation at the meter points. This enables aircraft to meet their STAs while performing high precision arrivals. The research presents a possible implementation that would allow delivery performance of current tools to be estimated and delivery accuracy requirements for future tools to be defined, which allows analysis of Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) accuracy for Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) and the FAA's Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). TMA is a deployed system that generates scheduled time-of-arrival constraints for en- route air traffic controllers in the US. This new method of automated analysis provides a repeatable evaluation of the delay metrics for current day traffic, new releases of TMA, implementation of different tools, and across different airspace environments. This method utilizes a wide set of data from the Operational TMA-TBFM Repository (OTTR) system, which processes raw data collected by the FAA from operational TMA systems at all ARTCCs in the nation. The OTTR system generates daily reports concerning ATC status, intent and actions. Due to its availability, ease of use, and vast collection of data across several airspaces it was determined that the OTTR data set would be the best method to utilize moving forward with this analysis. The particular variables needed for further analysis were determined along with the necessary OTTR reports, by working closely with the repository team additional analysis reports were developed that provided key ETA and STA information at the freeze horizon. One major benefit of the OTTR data is that using the correct reports the data across several airports could be analyzed over large periods of time. The OTTR data processes the TBFM data daily and is stored in various formats across several airspaces. This allowed us to develop our own parsing methods and raw data processing that would not rely on other computationally expensive tools that perform more in depth analysis of similar sets of data. The majority of this work consisted of the development of the ability to filter flights to create a subset of flights that could be considered undelayed, which is defined as a flight at the freeze horizon with an ETA and STA difference that was minimal or close to zero. This was a broad method that allowed the consideration of a large data set which consisted of all the traffic across a two month period in 2013, the hottest and coldest months, arriving into four airports: George Bush Intercontinental, Denver International, Los Angeles International, and Phoenix Sky Harbor.

delivery accuracy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Demonstrating the Early Adopter Benefits of Submitting Multiple Trajectory Options for Airlines

Integrated Demand Management (IDM), is a NASA developed Traffic Flow Management (TFM) concept that uses Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) to precondition traffic flows into the Time Based Flow Management (TBFM) region, helping traffic planners manage imbalances between demand and capacity in the National Airspace (NAS). A workshop held at NASA was conducted to demonstrate how individual airlines can be impacted by using Trajectory Options Sets (TOS) during IDM operations. A primary concern that was specifically addressed in a part-task Human-in-the-Loop simulation was who received the greater benefit, TOS participating or non-TOS participating airlines? The results showed that TOS participating airlines received greater benefit in terms of ground delay, number of reroute options, and additional flight time, than non-TOS participating airlines. However, this result was dependent on the number and location of flights. Therefore, it was advantageous for airlines to equip TOS. In addition, we found that non-TOS participating airlines also benefitted from other airlines participating in TOS, because the total system-wide ground delay was reduced as more TOS were introduced into the system. The evidence suggests that the benefits were distributed fairly, and there were no unfair disadvantages for airlines who did not equip TOS.

Integrated Demand Management↗

NASA NTRS2018

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

Flight delays occur when demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports exceeds predicted capacity. Demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports can be controlled by a series of Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), which use departure and airborne delays, as well as pre-departure and airborne reroutes, to manage access to the constrained resources. Two systems exist in current and planned future operations to address imbalances between demand and capacity. The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) reduces demand to constrained resources by assigning strategic departure delay and pre-departure reroutes. Reroutes are selected from Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) submitted by airlines. As flights approach the constrained resource, the Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM) is used to assign tactical delay to satisfy constraints. This paper describes experiments performed to study the impact of varying levels of airline participation in CTOP via submission of TOSs on ground delay and flight time, and the impact of departure uncertainty on TBFM delays. Results suggest that as CTOP participation increases, average ground delays decrease for all airlines, but to the greatest extent for airlines participating in CTOP. A threshold in CTOP participation, which varies with the constraint capacity, is identified beyond which there is relatively little further reduction in average ground delays. Similarly, given the likely level of CTOP participation, the capacity reduction for which CTOP would be an appropriate TMI is also identified. Results also suggest that high average departure errors and high variability in departure error can make the prioritization of TBFM internal departures in TBFM metering and scheduling infeasible. Departure errors at current levels are, however, acceptable.

CTOP↗

NASA NTRS2018

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

integrated demand management↗

NASA NTRS2017

Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Throughput

Time-based flow management provides arrival aircraft schedules based on arrival airport conditions, airport capacity, required spacing, and weather conditions. In order to meet a scheduled time at which arrival aircraft can cross an airport arrival meter fix prior to entering the airport terminal airspace, air traffic controllers make regulations on air traffic. Severe weather may create an airport arrival bottleneck if one or more of airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by the weather and the arrival demand has not been reduced accordingly. Under these conditions, aircraft are frequently being put in holding patterns until they can be rerouted. A model that predicts the weather impacted meter fix throughput may help air traffic controllers direct arrival flows into the airport more efficiently, minimizing arrival meter fix congestion. This paper presents an analysis of air traffic flows across arrival meter fixes at the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). Several scenarios of weather impacted EWR arrival fix flows are described. Furthermore, multiple linear regression and regression tree ensemble learning approaches for translating multiple sector Weather Impacted Traffic Indexes (WITI) to EWR arrival meter fix throughputs are examined. These weather translation models are developed and validated using the EWR arrival flight and weather data for the period of April-September in 2014. This study also compares the performance of the regression tree ensemble with traditional multiple linear regression models for estimating the weather impacted throughputs at each of the EWR arrival meter fixes. For all meter fixes investigated, the results from the regression tree ensemble weather translation models show a stronger correlation between model outputs and observed meter fix throughputs than that produced from multiple linear regression method.

Machine Learning Model.↗