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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

Statistics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Multivariate Time Series Prediction Techniques for Emulating Noah-LSM Soil Moisture Outputs

Land surface models are crucial tools for many earth science applications including numerical weather prediction, water resource and crop monitoring, and climatological analysis. Given a set of atmospheric forcings, seasonal data, and static parameters, models like Noah-LSM solve for land surface quantities including skin temperature, sensible heat flux, and soil moisture. While these calculations are theoretically robust, they are often computationally expensive. Since artificial neural networks (ANNs) are universal function approximators, they can learn to emulate the output of a deterministic numerical model given a time series of input forcings, with the learned ANN having substantially shorter execution time. The ANN could efficiently parameterize other models, generate ensembles, and provide first-guess inputs for retrievals. As such, with the goal of developing a model that efficiently mimics the output of Noah-LSM given NLDAS2 forcings on a region covering much of the central US, we examine and compare several neural network architectures for the multi-horizon multivariate time series forecasting problem. Recent literature includes a diverse set of approaches including autoregressive architectures like LSTM and GRU, parametric and non-parametric statistical predictors (ForecastNet and MQRNN), self-attention (LSTM-attention-LSTM), and temporal convovlution (DeepTCN). We implement several of these models for the Noah-LSM prediction task, highlighting the features and challenges for each and providing practical insight on the training process.

Mitchell Dodson↗
NASA NTRS1966

The adaptive prediction of time series.

Adaptive technique determination of optimum operations for pure prediction of discrete time series with respect to mean square error cost function

GAUSSIAN DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2011

Enchanced interference cancellation and telemetry reception in multipath environments with a single paraboic dish antenna using a focal plane array

An Advanced Focal Plane Array ("AFPA") for parabolic dish antennas that exploits spatial diversity to achieve better channel equalization performance in the presence of multipath (better than temporal equalization alone), and which is capable of receiving from two or more sources within a field-of-view in the presence of multipath. The AFPA uses a focal plane array of receiving elements plus a spatio-temporal filter that keeps information on the adaptive FIR filter weights, relative amplitudes and phases of the incoming signals, and which employs an Interference Cancelling Constant Modulus Algorithm (IC-CMA) that resolves multiple telemetry streams simultaneously from the respective aero-nautical platforms. This data is sent to an angle estimator to calculate the target's angular position, and then on to Kalman filters FOR smoothing and time series prediction. The resulting velocity and acceleration estimates from the time series data are sent to an antenna control unit (ACU) to be used for pointing control.

Mukai, Ryan↗
NASA NTRS1998

Cascade Error Projection with Low Bit Weight Quantization for High Order Correlation Data

In this paper, we reinvestigate the solution for chaotic time series prediction problem using neural network approach. The nature of this problem is such that the data sequences are never repeated, but they are rather in chaotic region. However, these data sequences are correlated between past, present, and future data in high order. We use Cascade Error Projection (CEP) learning algorithm to capture the high order correlation between past and present data to predict a future data using limited weight quantization constraints. This will help to predict a future information that will provide us better estimation in time for intelligent control system. In our earlier work, it has been shown that CEP can sufficiently learn 5-8 bit parity problem with 4- or more bits, and color segmentation problem with 7- or more bits of weight quantization. In this paper, we demonstrate that chaotic time series can be learned and generalized well with as low as 4-bit weight quantization using round-off and truncation techniques. The results show that generalization feature will suffer less as more bit weight quantization is available and error surfaces with the round-off technique are more symmetric around zero than error surfaces with the truncation technique. This study suggests that CEP is an implementable learning technique for hardware consideration.

Duong, Tuan A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Power spectra of quasi-periodic oscillations in luminous X-ray stars

A variety of partial random processes are considered in order to study the effects on the power-density spectrum of several physical phenomena that may occur in the beat-frequency modulated accretion (BFMA) model of QPOs. The relevant physical properties of BFMA model are summarized, and the class of random processes used to represent the X-ray intensity time series predicted by the model are introduced. The dependence of the power-density spectrum on pulse shape is discussed. Pulse-lifetime and orbital-frequency distributions are introduced, illustrating how these affect the power-density spectrum. The effect of nonuniform initial-pulse phase distributions and of nonuniform pulse-time distributions are considered. The effects of a particular type of pulse-to-pulse correlation that may be natural in the context of the BFMA model and that greatly increases the power of the oscillations relative to that in the red noise is analyzed.

Shibazaki, N.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Electromagnetic deep-probing (100-1000 kms) of the Earth's interior from artificial satellites: Constraints on the regional emplacement of crustal resources

A spherical harmonic analysis program is being tested which takes magnetic data in universal time from a set of arbitrarily space observatories and calculates a value for the instantaneous magnetic field at any point on the globe. The calculation is done as a least mean-squares value fit to a set of spherical harmonics up to any desired order. The program accepts as a set of input the orbit position of a satellite coordinates it with ground-based magnetic data for a given time. The output is a predicted time series for the magnetic field on the Earth's surface at the (r, theta) position directly under the hypothetically orbiting satellite for the duration of the time period of the input data set. By tracking the surface magnetic field beneath the satellite, narrow-band averages crosspowers between the spatially coordinated satellite and the ground-based data sets are computed. These crosspowers are used to calculate field transfer coefficients with minimum noise distortion. The application of this technique to calculating the vector response function W is discussed.

Hermance, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Toward autonomous spacecraft

Ways in which autonomous behavior of spacecraft can be extended to treat situations wherein a closed loop control by a human may not be appropriate or even possible are explored. Predictive models that minimize mean least squared error and arbitrary cost functions are discussed. A methodology for extracting cyclic components for an arbitrary environment with respect to usual and arbitrary criteria is developed. An approach to prediction and control based on evolutionary programming is outlined. A computer program capable of predicting time series is presented. A design of a control system for a robotic dense with partially unknown physical properties is presented.

Fogel, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Cascade Error Projection: A Learning Algorithm for Hardware Implementation

In this paper, we workout a detailed mathematical analysis for a new learning algorithm termed Cascade Error Projection (CEP) and a general learning frame work. This frame work can be used to obtain the cascade correlation learning algorithm by choosing a particular set of parameters. Furthermore, CEP learning algorithm is operated only on one layer, whereas the other set of weights can be calculated deterministically. In association with the dynamical stepsize change concept to convert the weight update from infinite space into a finite space, the relation between the current stepsize and the previous energy level is also given and the estimation procedure for optimal stepsize is used for validation of our proposed technique. The weight values of zero are used for starting the learning for every layer, and a single hidden unit is applied instead of using a pool of candidate hidden units similar to cascade correlation scheme. Therefore, simplicity in hardware implementation is also obtained. Furthermore, this analysis allows us to select from other methods (such as the conjugate gradient descent or the Newton's second order) one of which will be a good candidate for the learning technique. The choice of learning technique depends on the constraints of the problem (e.g., speed, performance, and hardware implementation); one technique may be more suitable than others. Moreover, for a discrete weight space, the theoretical analysis presents the capability of learning with limited weight quantization. Finally, 5- to 8-bit parity and chaotic time series prediction problems are investigated; the simulation results demonstrate that 4-bit or more weight quantization is sufficient for learning neural network using CEP. In addition, it is demonstrated that this technique is able to compensate for less bit weight resolution by incorporating additional hidden units. However, generation result may suffer somewhat with lower bit weight quantization.

Duong, Tuan A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

HMI Data Driven Magnetohydrodynamic Model Predicted Active Region Photospheric Heating Rates: Their Scale Invariant, Flare Like Power Law Distributions, and Their Possible Association With Flares

A data driven, near photospheric, 3 D, non-force free magnetohydrodynamic model predicts time series of the complete current density, and the resistive heating rate Q at the photosphere in neutral line regions (NLRs) of 14 active regions (ARs). The model is driven by time series of the magnetic field B observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series for B in every AR pixel. Errors in B due to these periods can be significant. The number of occurrences N(q) of values of Q > or = q for each AR time series is found to be a scale invariant power law distribution, N(Q) / Q−s, above an AR dependent threshold value of Q, where 0.3952 < or = s < or = 0.5298 with mean and standard deviation of 0.4678 and 0.0454, indicating little variation between ARs. Observations show that the number of occurrences N(E) of coronal flares with a total energy released > or = E obeys the same type of distribution, N(E) / E−S, above an AR dependent threshold value of E, with 0.38 < or approx. S < or approx. 0.60, also with little variation among ARs. Within error margins the ranges of s and S are nearly identical. This strong similarity between N(Q) and N(E) suggests a fundamental connection between the process that drives coronal flares and the process that drives photospheric NLR heating rates in ARs. In addition, results suggest it is plausible that spikes in Q, several orders of magnitude above background values, are correlated with times of the subsequent occurrence of M or X flares.

Goodman, Michael L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.

Smid, J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Prediction of Adverse Events in Time Series Data Using ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox)

Abstract:An open-source toolbox called ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox) that operates from within the Matlab programming environment is introduced. The toolbox provides an open source, special-purpose functionality that can be used specifically for the prediction or forecasting of adverse events in time series data. It also provides a single, unifying framework in which to compare a variety of combinations of algorithmic approaches addressing this problem. The architectural framework also offers the flexibility for expansion to accommodate the newest, latest popular regression and detection methods for this particular problem, enabling the development of an infrastructure that can act as a proving ground platform for comparing new techniques to the state of the art. As such, its intention is to act as a catalyst in advancing the state of the art in technologies related to this problem. There are a variety of other toolboxes that offer similar capabilities and features, however they are either more suitable as general purpose machine learning toolboxes or are only available commercially or through agreements. ACCEPT fills that niche by offering visibility into a specific approach for addressing the adverse event prediction problem.

programming environments↗
NASA NTRS2009

Development of an On-board Failure Diagnostics and Prognostics System for Solid Rocket Booster

We develop a case breach model for the on-board fault diagnostics and prognostics system for subscale solid-rocket boosters (SRBs). The model development was motivated by recent ground firing tests, in which a deviation of measured time-traces from the predicted time-series was observed. A modified model takes into account the nozzle ablation, including the effect of roughness of the nozzle surface, the geometry of the fault, and erosion and burning of the walls of the hole in the metal case. The derived low-dimensional performance model (LDPM) of the fault can reproduce the observed time-series data very well. To verify the performance of the LDPM we build a FLUENT model of the case breach fault and demonstrate a good agreement between theoretical predictions based on the analytical solution of the model equations and the results of the FLUENT simulations. We then incorporate the derived LDPM into an inferential Bayesian framework and verify performance of the Bayesian algorithm for the diagnostics and prognostics of the case breach fault. It is shown that the obtained LDPM allows one to track parameters of the SRB during the flight in real time, to diagnose case breach fault, and to predict its values in the future. The application of the method to fault diagnostics and prognostics (FD&P) of other SRB faults modes is discussed.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗