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At least 19 records

Peer-to-Peer Communication Trade-Offs for Smart Grid Applications: Preprint

Peer-to-peer energy management systems for smart grids require developers to consider the trade-offs between the amount of communication traffic generated and the quality and speed of convergence of the control algorithms that are deployed. Employing a fully connected communication causes messages to scale exponentially with the number of nodes, while using a sparse connectivity causes less information dissemination leading to degradation of the algorithm performance. The best communication topology for a particular application lies somewhere in between and often requires empirical evaluation by application designers. Existing methods do not put focus on the needs for smart grid applications, which is information dissemination throughout the network and they do not provide a flexible solution for application developers to prototype and deploy different topologies without modifying the application code. This paper introduces a configurable virtual communication topology framework TopLinkMgr, allowing users to specify any chosen communication topology and deploy peer-to-peer applications using it. It also introduces a self-adaptive, fault-tolerant topology management algorithm, Bounded Path Dissemination that can ensure the dissemination of information to all peers within a specified threshold for a sparsely connected topology. Experiments show that the algorithm improves on convergence speed and accuracy over state-of-the-art methods and is also robust against node failures. The results indicate the possibility of achieving a close-to optimal convergence without overloading the network allowing the realization of peer-to-peer control platforms covering larger and more complex power systems.

Bounded Path Dissemination↗

Trade and Climate Mitigation Interactions Create Agro–Economic Opportunities With Social and Environmental Trade–Offs in Latin America and the Caribbean

The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region plays key roles in both meeting global agricultural demands and maintaining carbon sinks due to its abundant land and water resources. In this study we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate the opportunities and challenges posed by two global-scale drivers: agricultural market integration (i.e., reduction of trade barriers) and land-based climate mitigation policy. We evaluate their potential individual and combined impacts on agricultural production and trade revenues across LAC’s economies through mid-century, as well as the resulting impacts on agricultural consumers and integrated land-water-climate systems across the region’s diverse sub-regions. Increased global market integration results in increased agricultural production and trade revenues for many LAC economies driven by their evolving comparative advantages. Climate mitigation measures on CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases increase revenues due to increased agricultural prices from land competition and emissions abatement. The combined outcomes from both drivers are complex and sometimes non-linear, highlighting the importance of understanding the interactions between multiple drivers. Our results show that increased agricultural production and trade opportunities pose significant trade-offs that require careful multi-sectoral planning, such as emissions reduction challenges, potential loss of livestock production when pursuing land-based climate mitigation strategies, increased consumer expenditures, and changes in land-use or water withdrawals, resulting in deforestation or water scarcity pressures. There is considerable heterogeneity in economic and environmental outcomes across LAC sub-regions and agricultural commodities, illustrating the value of considering outcomes at finer scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Traction Motor Design Trade-Offs with Additively Manufactured Anisotropic Bonded Magnets

Extrusion based big area additive manufacturing (BAAM) has been previously demonstrated for the fabrication of dense anisotropic bonded magnets. This paper reports on design trade-offs when such magnets are employed in a motor designed for electric vehicle applications. An external rotor fractional slot permanent magnet synchronous machine designed with sintered dysprosium free magnets rated for 100kW peak and 50kW continuous power is used as the baseline. The impact of using the bonded BAAM magnets on the motor and inverter volumes, motor loss and cooling systems as well as demagnetization margins is evaluated. It is found that although the motor power density reduces due to the lower energy product of the BAAM magnets, there are other system level benefits including reductions in the cooling system requirement, lower inverter rating and volume, decrease in short circuit current and improved demagnetization marains.

additive manufacturing↗

Day-ahead continuous double auction-based peer-to-peer energy trading platform incorporating trading losses and network utilisation fee

Integration of distributed energy resources, such as photovoltaic solar (PV), introduces new opportunities to establish local energy market frameworks to improve renewable energy utilisation in residential sectors. Such peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading refers to a local market structure where customers (and prosumers) interact to share excess PV generation to enhance the individual and community social welfare. In this work, a day-ahead continuous double auction (CDA)-based P2P market structure considering network losses and network utilisation fees was designed. Day-ahead PV energy is modelled using fractional integral polynomials and the output is forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average model for each market interval. Based on the customer load and excess PV energy, the CDA market is cleared using a bid/ask matching mechanism. The performance of the P2P market was evaluated by computing different welfare metrics while analysing the effect of network constraints. The results show that the designed CDA-based P2P market structure increases the social welfare of all participants by an average of 17.75% compared to the baseline for the presented cases. Moreover, the impact of the forecasting error between the day-ahead and real-time market was also quantified.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading and Grid Impact Studies in Smart Communities

The rise of peer-to-peer (P2P) marketplace paradigms has transformed existing marketplace models, but the extent to which this approach can be applied to the energy marketplace has yet to be considered. In this paper, we examine existing approaches taken in the application of a P2P paradigm to the energy marketplace, further presenting an approach towards facilitating an online P2P energy marketplace, implementing a prototype P2P web application named SolTrade. Furthermore, we submit initial statistics based on simulated transactions facilitated through the platform, which illustrate the physical impact of marketplace transactions on the energy grid. In particular, these results show that, as the number of users rises, the chance of overloading the grid rises, but the chance of the grid being unable to sustain itself without an external source of energy falls.

peer-to-peer economy, web development, energy shar↗

Earth Observatory Satellite system definition study. Report no. 3: Design/cost tradeoff studies. Appendix E: EOS program supporting system trade data. Part 2: System trade studies no. 9 - 19

The relative merits of several international data acquisition (IDA) alternatives for the Earth Observatory Satellite (EOS) are established and rated on a cost effectiveness basis. The primary alternatives under consideration are: (1) direct transmission to foreign ground stations, (2) a wideband video tape recorder system for collection of foreign data and processing and distribution from the United States, and (3) a tracking and data relay satellite (TDRS) system for the relay of foreign data to the United States for processing and distribution. A requirements model is established for the analysis on the basis of the heaviest concentration of agricultural areas around the world. The model, the orbit path and the constraints of EOS and data volume summaries are presented. Alternative system descriptions and costs are given in addition to cost-performance summaries.

Source record↗

Near-term hybrid vehicle program, phase 1. Appendix B: Design trade-off studies report. Volume 2: Supplement to design trade-off studies

Results of studies leading to the preliminary design of a hybrid passenger vehicle which is projected to have the maximum potential for reducing petroleum consumption in the near term are presented. Heat engine/electric hybrid vehicle tradeoffs, assessment of battery power source, and weight and cost analysis of key components are among the topics covered. Performance of auxiliary equipment, such as power steering, power brakes, air conditioning, lighting and electrical accessories, heating and ventilation is discussed along with the selection of preferred passenger compartment heating procedure for the hybrid vehicle. Waste heat from the engine, thermal energy storage, and an auxiliary burner are among the approaches considered.

Source record↗

Project Columbiad: Mission to the Moon. Book 1: Executive Summary. Volume 1: Mission trade studies and requirements. Volume 2: Subsystem trade studies and selection

In response to the Report of the Advisory Committee on the future of the U.S. Space Program and a request from NASA's Exploration Office, the MIT Hunsaker Aerospace Corporation (HAC) conducted a feasibility study, known as Project Columbiad, on reestablishing human presence on the Moon before the year 2000. The mission criteria established were to transport a four person crew to the lunar surface at any latitude and back to Earth with a 14-28 day stay on the lunar surface. Safety followed by cost of the Columbiad Mission were the top level priorities of HAC. The resulting design has a precursor mission that emplaces the required surface payloads before the piloted mission arrives. Both the precursor and piloted missions require two National Launch System (NLS) launches. Both the precursor and piloted mission have an Earth orbit rendezvous (EOR) with a direct transit to the Moon post-EOR. The piloted mission returns to Earth via a direct transit. Included among the surface payloads preemplaced are a habitat, solar power plant (including fuel cells for the lunar night), lunar rover, and mechanisms used to cover the habitat with regolith (lunar soil) in order to protect the crew members from severe solar flare radiation.

Clarke, Michael↗

Nuclear Trade Atlas 2016-2020

Building on prior work developing a Strategic Trade Atlas promoting understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, a Nuclear Trade Atlas was developed based on publicly available trade data. The Nuclear Trade Atlas examines trade patterns and trends for seventeen commodities based on a two-step assessment of the trade’s nuclear relevance: first estimating the probability that trade classified under a given Harmonized System (HS) code represents a specific commodity included in the export control lists of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and second estimating the probability that the listed, often dual-use, commodity would be indicative of nuclear use. These estimates combine to provide a measure of the likelihood trade classified under a given HS code may be nuclear relevant. By exclusively focusing on the HS codes most highly ranked by this measure, the resulting data visualizations comprising the Nuclear Trade Atlas provide those responsible for regulating or monitoring nuclear trade greater understanding of relevant global trading patterns and trends. The Atlas includes both commodity- and country-based views of nuclear trade. It is published as a book and as an interactive tool. Besides trade data, the interactive Atlas also includes data about countries’ non-proliferation commitments, allowing users to take this information into consideration while analyzing specific trade flows.

strategic trade, world customs organization, trade↗

Gaps in global wildlife trade monitoring leave amphibians vulnerable

As the biodiversity crisis continues, we must redouble efforts to understand and curb pressures pushing species closer to extinction. One major driver is the unsustainable trade of wildlife. Trade in internationally regulated species gains the most research attention, but this only accounts for a minority of traded species and we risk failing to appreciate the scale and impacts of unregulated legal trade. Despite being legal, trade puts pressure on wild species via direct collection, introduced pathogens, and invasive species. Smaller species-rich vertebrates, such as reptiles, fish, and amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to trading because of gaps in regulations, small distributions, and demand of novel species. Here, we combine data from five sources: online web searches in six languages, Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) trade database, Law Enforcement Management Information System (LEMIS) trade inventory, IUCN assessments, and a recent literature review, to characterise the global trade in amphibians, and also map use by purpose including meat, pets, medicinal, and for research. We show that 1215 species are being traded (17% of amphibian species), almost three times previous recorded numbers, 345 are threatened, and 100 Data Deficient or unassessed. Traded species origin hotspots include South America, China, and Central Africa; sources indicate 42% of amphibians are taken from the wild. Newly described species can be rapidly traded (mean time lag of 6.5 years), including threatened and unassessed species. The scale and limited regulation of the amphibian trade, paired with the triptych of connected pressures (collection, pathogens, invasive species), warrants a re-examination of the wildlife trade status quo, application of the precautionary principle in regard to wildlife trade, and a renewed push to achieve global biodiversity goals.

Hughes, Alice C.↗

Trade Space Specification Tool (TSST) for Rapid Mission Architecture (Version 1.2)

Trade Space Specification Tool (TSST) is designed to capture quickly ideas in the early spacecraft and mission architecture design and categorize them into trade space dimensions and options for later analysis. It is implemented as an Eclipse RCP Application, which can be run as a standalone program. Users rapidly create concept items with single clicks on a graphical canvas, and can organize and create linkages between the ideas using drag-and-drop actions within the same graphical view. Various views such as a trade view, rules view, and architecture view are provided to help users to visualize the trade space. This software can identify, explore, and assess aspects of the mission trade space, as well as capture and organize linkages/dependencies between trade space components. The tool supports a user-in-the-loop preliminary logical examination and filtering of trade space options to help identify which paths in the trade space are feasible (and preferred) and what analyses need to be done later with executable models. This tool provides multiple user views of the trade space to guide the analyst/team to facilitate interpretation and communication of the trade space components and linkages, identify gaps in combining and selecting trade space options, and guide user decision-making for which combinations of architectural options should be pursued for further evaluation. This software provides an environment to capture mission trade space elements rapidly and assist users for their architecture analysis. This is primarily focused on mission and spacecraft architecture design, rather than general-purpose design application. In addition, it provides more flexibility to create concepts and organize the ideas. The software is developed as an Eclipse plug-in and potentially can be integrated with other Eclipse-based tools.

Wang, Yeou-Fang↗

Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade

Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Embodied carbon in the U.S. manufacturing and trade

On average, one quarter of the global carbon footprint is embodied in traded goods. These emissions are a growing issue for global efforts to decarbonize the world economy. Embodied emissions in trade are not accounted for by existing greenhouse gas accounting systems. For example, countries only report their domestic carbon emissions (also known as production-based or territorial accounting) to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). If the embodied carbon in trade were accounted for and reported, the promising climate trends depicted by many countries would be negated or reversed. For example, many achievements of reducing emissions by developed countries under the Kyoto Protocol would actually appear as emissions outsourced to developing countries. Like many other developed countries, the United States is a net importer of embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in trade. The goal of this study was to calculate the carbon footprint of various sectors of the U.S. economy using the latest available data and based on that, estimate the embodied carbon in certain manufacturing sector products imported and exported by the U.S. First, we conducted an input-output analysis to calculate the carbon footprint of 401 aggregate level sectors of the U.S. economy. After that, for a selected number of manufacturing subsectors /products(hereafter referred to as products),we collected their trade(import/export) data and combined that with their computed carbon footprint to estimate the embodied carbon in import and export of these products for the U.S. While we conducted the carbon footprint analysis for sectors covering the entire U.S. economy (401 sectors), we only conducted the embodied carbon in trade analysis for a few products within specific aggregate level manufacturing sectors,such as computer and electronic product manufacturing (NAICS 334), transport equipment manufacturing (NAICS 336), machinery manufacturing (NAICS 333), and chemical manufacturing (NAICS 325). It is possible to do the detailed embodied carbon analysis for all other products within the various aggregate level manufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy, but given the scope of this study and space constraint of this report, we only present the results for a few products. The results of our analysis for the selected products show the embodied carbon in trade for each product by country and also show the rankings of countries in terms of top importers and exporters of embodied carbon in trade with the U.S. Our results show that in majority of cases, the U.S. is a net importer of embodied carbon in trade. Unless consumption-based accounting is used, the U.S. and other net embodied carbon importing countries may continue to outsource their emissions to meet their climate change mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement, as observed previously with the Kyoto Protocol. Some countries reported reductions that exceeded their Kyoto targets, however, the changes in emissions embodied in imports were comparable to or larger than changes in domestic emissions. Traded emissions undermined emissions reductions in the Kyoto Protocol, and threaten to continue to do so for the Paris Agreement. New climate policies such as California’s Buy Clean act, EU’s proposed border carbon tax adjustment, as well as efforts in the private sector can help address the embodied carbon in traded products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decision Space Modeling: Trade Space Ontology

As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) works to develop a crewed Moon to Mars Architecture, it is dealing with a large decision space consisting of the overlay of human exploration architectures for both the Moon and for Mars. Efforts are underway to enable reasoning, analysis, and deliberation on this decision space. A critical first step is to develop a model of the decision space, which will then allow for various methods and techniques to be applied in support of the larger architecture decision-making process. The Trade Space Ontology consists of a set of terminologies and relations (an ontology) and a MagicDraw resource that enables documentation of decisions and alternatives. It also provides a means by which decisions and alternatives can be traced to other Systems Engineering artifacts. For documenting alternatives, the Trade Space Ontology adapts the Morphological Matrix methodology to The Systems Modeling Language (SysML) through a profile; custom diagrams are also implemented to simplify the profile's use. With the profile and custom diagrams, system architects can specify options for architecture attributes, as well as compatibility between them, in a compact visual format. While the approach shares similarities to a trade tree, the emphasis at this stage is less on enumerating specific combinations of options and instead on specifying the options and their compatibility. Enumeration of alternatives is performed by an external analysis that operates on an output file from a model constructed using the Trade Space Ontology. For decisions, the Trade Space Ontology provides a way to model generic precedence relationships as well as documenting inputs and outputs. These may include what alternatives, criteria, and rationale are understood to be relevant for each decision. Importantly, the decision-making side of the Trade Space Ontology is defined at a more general level, such that it can be adapted to the specific terms in use by projects and programs at NASA. However, this adaptability also means that less capability is provided ``out-of-the-box'' from installation. Currently the resource includes plugin functionality to enumerate paths through generic precedence relationships between decisions and to export these paths to a spreadsheet. Custom dependency stereotypes are included in the profile to indicate the cross-cutting relationships between the trade space and the architecture decisions, providing a means to map which parts of the trade space enumerate alternatives for a decision, and to identify how the output of a decision may modify the trade space through pruning or down-selection. While the motivating use case for this resource is in human exploration architectures, the broad applicability of the Morphological Matrix methodology indicates that the Trade Space Ontology should also be useful for other activities and tasks at the agency.

Trade Tree↗

Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Trade Networks

Countries' reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070–2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, rice and maize. We propose a simple network model to project how climate change impacts on crop yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining trade and climate impact data, our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we use network community detection to analyse how the concentration of global production in present-day trade communities may become disrupted with climate change impacts. Second, we study how countries may change their network position following climate change impacts. Third, we study the total climate-induced change in production plus import within trade communities. Results indicate that the stability of food trade network structures compared to today differs between crops, and that countries' maize trade is least stable under climate change impacts. Results also project that threats to global food security may depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade communities can balance production and import loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline analysis of cross-border climate impacts on food trade networks.

climate change↗

Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade

Abstract International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios’ plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.

Ribeiro, Joana (ORCID:0000000237555785)↗

Space and Ground Trades for Human Exploration and Wearable Computing

Human exploration of the Moon and Mars will present unique trade study challenges as ground system elements shift to planetary bodies and perhaps eventually to the bodies of human explorers in the form of wearable computing technologies. This presentation will highlight some of the key space and ground trade issues that will face the Exploration Initiative as NASA begins designing systems for the sustained human exploration of the Moon and Mars, with an emphasis on wearable computing. We will present some preliminary test results and scenarios that demonstrate how wearable computing might affect the trade space noted below. We will first present some background on wearable computing and its utility to NASA's Exploration Initiative. Next, we will discuss three broad architectural themes, some key ground and space trade issues within those themes and how they relate to wearable computing. Lastly, we will present some preliminary test results and suggest guidance for proceeding in the assessment and creation of a value-added role for wearable computing in the Exploration Initiative. The three broad ground-space architectural trade themes we will discuss are: 1. Functional Shift and Distribution: To what extent, if any, should traditional ground system functionality be shifted to, and distributed among, the Earth, Moon/Mars, and the human. explorer? 2. Situational Awareness and Autonomy: How much situational awareness (e.g. environmental conditions, biometrics, etc.) and autonomy is required and desired, and where should these capabilities reside? 3. Functional Redundancy: What functions (e.g. command, control, analysis) should exist simultaneously on Earth, the Moon/Mars, and the human explorer? These three themes can serve as the axes of a three-dimensional trade space, within which architectural solutions reside. We will show how wearable computers can fit into this trade space and what the possible implications could be for the rest of the ground and space architecture(s). We intend this to be an example of explorer-centric thinking in a fully integrated explorer paradigm, where integrated explorer refers to a human explorer having instant access to all relevant data, knowledge of the environment, science models, health and safety-related events, and other tools and information via wearable computing technologies. The trade study approach will include involvement from the relevant stakeholders (Constellation Systems, CCCI, EVA Project Office, Astronaut office, Mission Operations, Space Life Sciences, etc.) to develop operations concepts (and/or operations scenarios) from which a basic high-level set of requirements could be extracted. This set of requirements could serve as a foundation (along with stakeholder buy-in) that would help define the trade space and assist in identifying candidate technologies for further study and evolution to higher-level technology readiness levels.

Lupisella, Mark↗