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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing multi-model ensemble simulations with observations and decadal projections of upper atmospheric variations following the Hunga eruption

The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai Model–Observation Comparison (HTHH–MOC) project aims to comprehensively investigate the evolution of volcanic water vapor and sulfur emissions and their subsequent atmospheric impacts and underlying response mechanisms using state-of-the-art global climate models. This study evaluates multi-model ensemble simulations participating in the HTHH–MOC free-run experiment with climate projections for 10 years (2022–2032). Model results are evaluated against satellite observations to assess their ability to reproduce the observed evolution of stratospheric water vapor, aerosols, temperature, and ozone from 2022 to 2024. The participating models accurately capture the observed distribution patterns and associated upper atmospheric responses, providing confidence for their future projections. Model simulations suggest that the Hunga eruption-induced stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasts 4–7 years, with a water vapor e-folding time of 31–43 months. This prolonged water vapor perturbation leads to significant stratospheric and mesospheric cooling, resulting in significant ozone loss in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere for 7–10 years. Comparisons between simulations with both SO 2 and H 2 O emissions and those with H 2 O-only emissions indicate that the pronounced dipole response with upper-stratospheric cooling and lower-stratospheric warming is driven by the combined effects of SO 2 and H 2 O injections. These results highlight the prolonged atmospheric impacts of the Hunga eruption and the potential critical role of stratospheric water vapor in modulating long-term atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.

Zhuo, Zhihong [Univ. of Quebec, Montreal, QC (Cana↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large‐Scale Statistically Meaningful Patterns (LSMPs) Associated With Precipitation Extremes Over Northern California

Abstract We analyze large‐scale statistically meaningful patterns (LSMPs) that precede extreme precipitation (PEx) events over Northern California (NorCal). We find LSMPs by applying k‐means clustering to the two leading principal components of daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies two days before the onset, from October to March during 1948–2015. Statistical significance testing based on Monte Carlo simulations suggests a minimum of four statistically distinguished LSMP clusters. The four LSMP clusters are characterized as Northwest continental negative height anomaly, Eastward positive “Pacific‐North American Pattern (PNA),” Westward negative “PNA,” and Prominent Alaskan ridge. These four clusters, shown in multiple variables, evolve very differently and have differing links to the Arctic and tropical Pacific regions. Using binary forecast skill measures and a new copula‐based framework for predicting PEx events, we find LSMP indices that are useful predictors of NorCal PEx events, with moisture‐based variables being the best predictors of PEx events at least 6 days before the onset, and the lower atmospheric variables being better than their upper atmospheric counterparts any day in advance tested. To ensure statistical rigor, the LSMPs analyzed here (with the modified acronym) include local tests of both significance and consistency, which are not always featured in the literature on large‐scale meteorological patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explanation of the seasonal variation of cosmic multiple muon events observed with the NOvA Near Detector

The flux of cosmic ray muons at the Earth’s surface exhibits seasonal variations due to changes in the temperature of the atmosphere affecting the production and decay of mesons in the upper atmosphere. Using 1473 live days of data collected by the NuMI Off-axis 𝜈 𝑒 Appearance (NOvA) Near Detector during 2018–2022, we studied the seasonal pattern in the multiple-muon event rate. The data confirm an anticorrelation between the multiple-muon event rate and effective atmospheric temperature, consistent across all the years of data. Previous analyses from MINOS and NOvA saw a similar anticorrelation but did not include an explanation. We find that this anticorrelation is driven by altitude–geometry effects as the average muon production height changes with the season. This has been studied with a CORSIKA cosmic ray simulation package by varying atmospheric parameters, and provides an explanation to a longstanding discrepancy between the seasonal phases of single and multiple-muon events.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating ultrafine aerosol turbulent fluxes during atmospheric new particle formation events

New particle formation (NPF) is an important source of atmospheric aerosols, yet quantitatively predicting its occurrence remains challenging, partly because ground-based measurements cannot capture NPF accurately if they occur in the upper atmosphere. While observations have confirmed the presence of new particles near the top of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), their origins and the direction of their vertical transport have remained ambiguous. Here, we propose and validate an analytical framework using airborne eddy-covariance (EC) and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to directly quantify the vertical flux of newly formed particles and determine its dominant vertical transportation direction. Analyzing data from a dedicated airborne campaign over the Southern Great Plains, we observed a persistent and strong downward particle flux during NPF events, with a mean value of 133.8 cm?3 m s?¹ downward flux in the entrainment zone, whereas fluxes on non-NPF days were negligible. Our spectral analysis further confirms that these directional fluxes can be reliably captured using standard 1 Hz aerosol instrumentation. These findings suggest that new particle formation, driven by the entrainment of air from the overlying residual/stable layer during PBL growth, is a significant and potentially understudied source of boundary layer aerosols. The framework presented here provides a methodology to correctly attribute NPF events to specific altitudes, thereby improving the mechanistic understanding required for accurate atmospheric models.

Zhang, Ruoyu↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measuring Local Turbulence Along the Optical Path: Multi-Beam Optical Seeing Sensor

Deflection of light along the optical path is a major source of image degradation for ground-based telescopes. Methods have been developed to measure upper atmospheric seeing based on models of the turbulence in the atmosphere, but due to boundary conditions, transmission within telescope enclosures is more complex. The Multi-beam Optical Seeing Sensor (MOSS) directly measures the component of the image quality degradation from inhomogeneity of the index of refraction within the telescope dome. MOSS outputs four near-parallel beams of light that travel along the optical path and are imaged by the telescope’s detector, landing like starlight on the telescope’s focal plane. By using a strobed light source, we can ‘freeze’ the instantaneous index variations transverse to the optical path. This system captures both ‘dome’ and ‘mirror’ seeing. Through plotting the standard deviation of differential motion between pairs of beams, MOSS enables characterization of the length scale of turbulence within the dome. The temporal coherence of temperature gradients can be probed with different pulse lengths, and the spatial coherence by comparing pairs at different separations across the aperture of the telescope. Optical path turbulence measurements, alongside other telemetry metrics, will guide thermal and airflow management to optimize image quality. A MOSS prototype was installed in the 1.2[Formula: see text]m Auxiliary Telescope (AuxTel) at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile, and preliminary data constrain the optical path turbulence with a lower bound of 1.4 arcsec. The optical path turbulence varied throughout the night of observing.

Astronomical seeing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nucleation and Contrail Formation

Condensation trails, or contrails, are aircraft-induced cirrus clouds. They come from the formation of water droplets, later converting to ice crystals as a result of water vapor condensing on aerosols either emitted by the aircraft engines or already present in the upper atmosphere. While there is ongoing debate about their true impact, contrails are estimated to be a major contributor to climate forcing from aviation. We remind that air transportation currently accounts for about 5 % of the global anthropogenic climate forcing, and that it is anticipated that air traffic will double in the coming decade or two. The expected growth reinforces the urgency of the need to develop a plan to better understand contrail formation and persistence, and deploy means to reduce or avoid contrail formation, or greatly mitigate their impact. It is evident that contrails should be part of the picture when developing a plan to make the aviation sector sustainable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

exoALMA. V. Gaseous Emission Surfaces and Temperature Structures

An analysis of the gaseous component in protoplanetary disks can inform us about their thermal and physical structure, chemical composition, and kinematic properties, all of which are crucial for understanding various processes within the disks. By exploiting the asymmetry of the line emission, or via line profile analysis, we can locate the emitting surfaces. Here, we present the emission surfaces of the exoALMA sources in 12 CO J = 3–2, 13 CO J = 3–2, and CS J = 7–6. We find that 12 CO traces the upper disk atmosphere, with mean $\langle$ z/r $\rangle$ values of ≈0.28, while 13 CO and CS trace lower regions of the disk with mean $\langle$ z/r $\rangle$ values of ≈0.16 and ≈0.18, respectively. We find that 12 CO $\langle$ z/r $\rangle$ and the disk mass are positively correlated with each other; this relationship offers a straightforward way to infer the disk mass. We derive 2D r – z temperature distributions of the disks. Additionally, we search for substructure in the surfaces and radial intensity profiles; we find evidence of localized substructure in the emission surfaces and peak intensity profiles of nearly every disk, with this substructure often being coincident between molecular tracers, intensity profiles, and kinematic perturbations. Four disks display evidence of potential photodesorption, implying that this effect may be common even in low far-ultraviolet star-forming regions. For most disks, we find that the physical and thermal structure is more complex than analytical models can account for, highlighting a need for more theoretical work and a better understanding of the role of projection effects on our observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Atmosphere and Ocean Horizontal Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone and Upper-Ocean Response Forecasts in Four Major Hurricanes

A coupled atmosphere–ocean model is necessary for tropical cyclone (TC) prediction to accurately characterize ocean feedback on atmospheric processes within the TC environment. Here, the ECMWF coupled global model is run at horizontal resolutions from 9 to 1.4 km in the atmosphere, as well as 25 and 8 km in the ocean, to identify how resolution impacts forecast accuracy of four observed major TCs in the Atlantic: Irma, Florence, Teddy, and Ida. Most of the resolutions used here are unprecedented for global models. GOES-16 and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and best track data are used for atmospheric validation. Salinity and temperature observations from Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observer (ALAMO) floats are used to validate modeled upper-ocean response, including mixed layer deepening, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial waves in the wakes of TCs. Increasing atmospheric resolution leads to more realistic TC structure and stronger winds, significantly improving TC intensity forecasts and modestly improving track errors. Ocean resolution impacts the upper-ocean response but does not influence atmospheric forecasts for the fast-moving TCs considered here. Stronger mixing, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillations are found for both higher atmosphere and ocean resolutions, provided the initial upper-ocean state is the same for the two ocean resolutions. Whether this agrees better with the ALAMO observations also depends on the realism of the initial upper-ocean state in the model, emphasizing the importance of ocean initialization for the accurate upper-ocean response. Overall, the model at all resolutions correctly predicts stronger mixing, surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillation amplitudes to the right of a TC center, as observed by ALAMO floats.

Atmosphere-ocean interaction↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upper-air soundings collected during the CROCUS Urban Canyons 2024 campaign in Chicago, Illinois USA

Funded by the Department of Energy’s Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research program, Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) studies urban climate change and the impact it has on communities, with particular focus on disinvested, under-resourced communities. This information leads to new insights on urban climate challenges and informs future actions for mitigating and adapting to climate change at the street, neighborhood and regional levels.As part of the CROCUS effort, the Urban Canyons 2024 project was undertaken to study conditions at unprecedented detail over various neighborhoods in Chicago, Illinois. This dataset consists of upper air soundings that were collected as part of this effort. Soundings were launched during two intensive observing periods, IOP1 occurred on 22-23 July 2024, while IOP2 occurred on 27-28 July 2024. For IOP1, soundings were launched at coordinated times from three sites, Shedd Aquarium in Downtown Chicago, Abizu Campus High School in Humboldt Park, and Gary Comer Youth Center in West Woodlawn. For IOP2, the Gary Comer site was replaced by a neighborhood site in West Woodlawn, Chicago. The Abizu Campos site was operated by Valparaiso University and used iMET-4 rawinsondes, the other sites were operated by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and used GRAW DFM-19 sondes.This dataset contains netCDF files containing quality-controlled temperature, dewpoint, geopotential height, pressure, and vector wind measurements at 1 second intervals following launch. These files are readable by the open-source netCDF software libraries available in many software packages (i.e., python, R, fortran, C++, etc.). The dataset also contains quicklook plots of each launch on a skew-T log-p thermodynamic diagram. These are in png format viewable by most web browsers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) of Snow Water Equivalent from the Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory

The upper Colorado River basin is the primary source of water for 40 million people. With declining snowpack in the basin, forecasting hydrological budgets in the Southwest United States is more important than ever. However, due in part, to a lack of reliable observations of precipitation in complex terrain, hydrological models struggle to assess and forecast snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE) in the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB). Therefore, the need for more reliable SWE forecasts in the UCRB motivated the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Facility’s Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) that occurred from June 2021 to June 2023. During SAIL, the X-band precipitation radar from Colorado State University conducted volume scans sampling the precipitation properties over the UCRB. The ARM facility developed a gridded Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) product from the radar observations. To do this, various daily SWE estimates from radar using the radar reflectivity factor Z e and specific differential phase K dp were compared against ground-based precipitation gauges. SWE in precipitation calculated from Wolfe and Snider’s S–Z e estimator was in best agreement with the rain gauges for the days when SWE < 12 mm. For days with SWE > 12 mm, the WSR-88D Intermountain West relationship had the best agreement with the precipitation gauges. Airborne snow depth observations show that SQUIRE captures regions of orographic enhancement in the mountains to the west and northwest of the SAIL study area, indicating that the scientific community should focus on understanding and ultimately simulating orographic atmospheric precipitation processes to improve UCRB snowpack SWE assessment and forecasting.

Hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unprecedented Beaufort Sea ice loss in late summer 2021 and its relationship to an extended period of unusually stormy weather

Previous case studies have linked cyclone-induced atmospheric forcing and/or upper-ocean processes to notable Arctic sea ice loss events in the summers of 2012 and 2016. This study examines a more recent and noteworthy case in late summer 2021 in which substantial sea ice loss followed a period of surface meteorological extremes in the Beaufort Sea region of the Arctic. We focus on the period from mid-August to mid-September 2021 that coincided with the Office of Naval Research THINICE Pilot Field Campaign and investigate stormy and windy conditions with respect to air-sea processes impacting sea ice conditions. We find that during the stormy first half of the campaign, cyclone-induced energy fluxes into the marginal ice zone and surrounding waters preconditioned the ice pack for more rapid melt later in the campaign. The second half of the campaign, in contrast, was marked by non-cyclone wind events that enhanced turbulent (namely sensible) heat fluxes into the ice and upper ocean that increased melt. Moreover, this latter period had enhanced advection of the Beaufort Sea ice pack into above-freezing waters, increasing bottom melt to >1 cm d −1 over the remainder of the campaign. While findings are shown to vary by surface type and at relatively small (i.e. ice-floe) scales, insights are offered on the roles of late summer coupled processes on rapid ice loss events in today’s Arctic environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sea surface warming and ocean-to-atmosphere feedback driven by large-scale offshore wind farms under seasonally stratified conditions

Offshore wind farms may induce changes in the upper ocean and near-surface atmosphere through coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. Yet, the role of air-sea interactions mediated by offshore wind farms remains poorly understood. Using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model simulations for seasonally stratified conditions along the US East Coast, we show that simulated cumulative reductions in wind stress due to large-scale wind farm clusters lead to sea surface warming of 0.3° to 0.4°C and a shallower mixed layer. This warming drives upward heat fluxes, destabilizing the atmospheric boundary layer and enhancing wind stress, which partially offsets wake-induced wind deficits. These wake-ocean interactions influence near-surface meteorology and air-sea fluxes, suggesting that a coupled modeling approach may be necessary for assessing potential oceanographic impacts of offshore wind developments. However, ocean coupling exerts limited influence on winds at turbine-relevant heights or within downstream wakes, resulting in minimal impact on long-term energy. These findings suggest that models without ocean coupling may be adequate for wind energy applications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The role of charm and unflavored mesons in prompt atmospheric lepton fluxes

The all-sky very-high-energy (10 4 − 10 6 GeV) atmospheric muon flux measured by IceCube shows a spectral hardening at the highest energies, indicating the presence of a prompt component. IceCube has also measured the atmospheric muon neutrino flux at high energy. However, since this flux is dominated by astrophysical neutrinos, only an upper bound can be placed on the prompt atmospheric ν μ + $\overline{ν}$ μ contribution. In this work, we provide a new evaluation of the prompt atmospheric muon flux including an intrinsic charm component in the cosmic ray-air interactions. The latter enhances the forward production of $\overline{D}$ 0 , D – and Λc, which subsequently decay into final states containing muons and muon neutrinos. We show how the increase in the prompt muon flux due to intrinsic charm is accompanied by a corresponding enhancement in the prompt muon neutrino flux. We implement different intrinsic charm production models in MCEq to calculate the resulting lepton fluxes. We discuss the challenges of achieving predictions that are simultaneously consistent with both IceCube’s high-energy atmospheric muon flux measurements and IceCube upper bounds on the prompt muon neutrino flux, and we quantify the resulting discrepancies. As possible solutions, we explore scaling of the unflavored meson contributions to the prompt atmospheric muon flux to assess how such adjustments can reconcile these differences. The tensions emphasized in our work call for a refinement of the hadronic interaction models, especially the production of unflavored mesons, and for new experimental data sensitive to unflavored meson and heavy flavor production with reliable estimates of the associated uncertainties. We suggest that the energy and zenith angle dependence of muon and neutrino flux ratios from future neutrino telescope measurements may help to disentangle different scenarios.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Water Tracers in the Atmospheric Component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model: Implementation and Changes in Moisture Origin

Numerical water tracers are implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2. Simulations performed with the water‐tag‐enabled model for both pre‐industrial and future greenhouse gas concentrations reveal a marked increase in the role of mid‐latitude and southern subtropical regions as exporters of atmospheric moisture—to the extratropical upper troposphere and the tropical free troposphere. For the latter, the northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone increases cross‐hemispheric transport of subtropical water vapor to the Northern Hemisphere. In the polar regions, most of the lower tropospheric moistening instead arises from increases in local evaporation. These findings illustrate the utility of the water tags, underscore critical changes in global hydrologic cycle, and provide insight into atmospheric dynamics under future climate scenarios. For applications when a global grid is desired, we additionally propose a novel statistical reconstruction, based on copula modeling, of the joint distribution of origin of water vapor, which reduces the number of tracers from order $\mathcal{O}\left({n}^{2}\right)$to order $\mathcal{O}(n)$, substantially ameliorating the considerable computational cost of water tracers. This statistical reconstruction is particularly beneficial to the interpretation of the relationship between latitude and longitude of origin of moisture over the tropical oceans and in the lower troposphere over land.

copula modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

GNSS Installation at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Observatory Field Campaign Report

GRUAN, the GCOS Reference Upper Air Network, is an international reference observing network of sites measuring essential climate variables above Earth's surface, designed to fill an important gap in the current global observing system. GRUAN’s objectives are to (1) provide long-term, high-quality climate records, (2) constrain and calibrate data from more spatially comprehensive global observing systems (including satellites and current radiosonde networks), and (3) fully characterize the properties of the atmospheric column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surface heat flux and its association with the MJO in the tropical western Pacific using ARM observations

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major atmospheric phenomenon in the tropics that moves eastward every 20 to 100 days. It brings heavy rain and strong winds, influencing extreme weather events far beyond the tropics – including flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes and heavy snow in the United States. Therefore, an improved understanding of the MJO is critical for enhancing weather forecasts and supporting better decision-making for communities, emergency managers, and the private sector. Past studies, based on short-term observations or long-term model data, have emphasized the dominant role of atmospheric humidity in driving the MJO. Our research, using long-term observations (2000-2014) from three U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in the tropical western Pacific (Manus, Nauru, and Darwin) confirms those past findings. However, we also show that atmospheric temperature, especially in the mid and upper troposphere, also plays a key role in the MJO’s evolution from its quiet (suppressed) to convective (active) phase. These findings provide valuable insights into how the MJO evolves and may help evaluate and improve weather and climate models. Our study also examined how the exchange of heat between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, called surface heat flux, interacts with the MJO. This flux includes components such as latent heat (related to evaporation), sensible heat (related to temperature difference between surface and atmosphere), and radiation. We found that modulation in MJO convection is well connected to surface heat flux over the tropical western Pacific. One surface heat flux component often overlooked is the sensible heat flux due to precipitation (Q P ). Since falling raindrops are typically cooler than the land or ocean surface, they can cool the surface and affect local weather. To test the impact of Q P on convection during MJO, we incorporated it into a weather model, and ran simulations for two periods: April 2009 (when the MJO was active) and June 2006 (when it was not). Including Q P reduced errors in simulating the daily peak of rainfall—by 83% during the strong MJO and 23% during the inactive phase. It also improved the timing of peak daily rainfall and reduced the overall precipitation error by about 10%. These improvements were especially noticeable during periods of heavy rainfall. Our results suggest that even small heat exchanges from rainfall can play a significant role in shaping local weather. Accounting for these effects, particularly in regions like the tropical islands, can lead to more accurate simulations of the MJO-associated precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurements of Radical Reactivity with an Imine, (CF 3 ) 2 CNH: Rate Constants for Chlorine Atoms and Hydroxyl Radicals and the Global Warming Potential

The rate constant kOH for the reaction of 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoroprop-2-imine with OH radicals was measured relative to two reference compounds, CH 3 F and CH 3 CHF 2 , to be k OH = (4.2 ± 1.1) × 10 −14 cm 3 molecule −1 s −1 at 295 K. This implies an atmospheric lifetime with respect to consumption by OH of 0.75 years. Reaction with Cl atoms yielded k Cl = (7.9 ± 1.7) × 10 −16 cm 3 molecule −1 s −1 at 295 K, and reaction with O 3 has an upper limit of k O3 < 4 × 10 −23 cm 3 molecule −1 s −1 , so that the atmospheric consumption by Cl and O 3 is negligibly slow. Absolute infrared cross sections of the imine yield a radiative efficiency of 0.34 W m −2 ppb −1 , which is corrected to 0.23 W m −2 ppb −1 for the effects of atmospheric lifetime. The imine’s corresponding 100-year global warming potential is 64 ± 19. This value is an upper limit, given that heterogenous atmospheric removal paths, such as hydrolysis in water droplets, are not included.

climate metric↗