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At least 19 records

CO 2 and Carbon Emissions from Cities: Linkages to Air Quality, Socioeconomic Activity, and Stakeholders in the Salt Lake City Urban Area

Urban areas are responsible for a substantial proportion of anthropogenic carbon emissions around the world. As global populations increasingly reside in cities, the role of urban emissions in determining the future trajectory of carbon emissions is magnified. Consequently, a number of research efforts have been started in the United States and beyond, focusing on observing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and relating its variations to carbon emissions in cities. Because carbon emissions are intimately tied to socioeconomic activity through the combustion of fossil fuels, and many cities are actively adopting emission reduction plans, such urban carbon research efforts give rise to opportunities for stakeholder engagement and guidance on other environmental issues, such as air quality. This paper describes a research effort centered in the Salt Lake City, Utah, metropolitan region, which is the locus for one of the longest-running urban CO 2 networks in the world. The Salt Lake City area provides a rich environment for studying anthropogenic emissions and for understanding the relationship between emissions and socioeconomic activity when the CO 2 observations are enhanced with a) air quality observations, b) novel mobile observations from platforms on light-rail public transit trains and a news helicopter, c) dense meteorological observations, and d) modeling efforts that include atmospheric simulations and high-resolution emission inventories. Carbon dioxide and other atmospheric observations are presented herein, along with associated modeling work. Examples in which the work benefited from and contributed to the interests of multiple stakeholders (e.g., policymakers, air quality managers, municipal government, urban planners, industry, and the general public) are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stationary Spatial Charging Demand Distribution for Commercial Electric Vehicles in Urban Area

The electric vehicle (EV) is an increasingly popu- lar mobility solution today. It is especially appealing for urban commercial usage including serving commuters and delivering goods. Commercial EVs, defined as electric taxi fleets in this paper, contribute a lot to the energy consumption and emission. One critical component to facilitate the adoption of EVs is to provide sufficient charging infrastructures for road users to alleviate the range anxiety. In this study, we develop an analytical model to profile the stationary spatial distribution of charging demand for any given fleet of commercial EVs, which serves as the necessary input for planning the location of charging infrastructures. Our model considers the movement of EVs as a random walk, with the underlying Markov process driven by the spatial demand that the commercial EV fleet needs to serve. We then define the electricity consumption and charging models and develop the probability distribution that an EV may need to recharge its battery at any given location in the city, based on the stationary distribution of the random walk process. We calibrate the performance parameters of EVs from the trip record and present numerical experiments based on New York City taxi trip data and compare the solution from simulation with our analytical solution. The result shows that analytical solution is quite close to the simulation result. This paper provides insights to the city agencies and private companies to make charging infrastructure location planning.

Qian, Xinwu↗

Continued Increases of Gross Primary Production in Urban Areas During 2000–2016

Urbanization affects vegetation within city administrative boundary and nearby rural areas. Gross primary production (GPP) of vegetation in global urban areas is one of important metrics for assessing the impacts of urbanization on terrestrial ecosystems. To date, very limited data and information on the spatial-temporal dynamics of GPP in the global urban areas are available. In this study, we reported the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of annual GPP during 2000–2016 from 8,182 gridcells (0.5° by 0.5° latitude and longitude) that have various proportion of urban areas. Approximately 79.3% of these urban gridcells had increasing trends of annual GPP during 2000-2016. As urban area proportion (%) within individual urban gridcells increased, the means of annual GPP trends also increased. Our results suggested that for those urban gridcells, the negative effect of urban expansion (often measured by impervious surfaces) on GPP was to large degree compensated by increased vegetation within the gridcells, mostly driven by urban management and local climate and environment. Our findings on the continued increases of annual GPP in most of urban gridcells shed new insight on the importance of urban areas on terrestrial carbon cycle and the potential of urban management and local climate and environment on improving vegetation in urban areas.

Yaoping Cui↗

Projecting Global Urban Area Growth Through 2100 Based on Historical Time Series Data and Future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Improved understanding of the potential growth of urban areas at the national and global levels is needed for sustainable urban development. Current panel data analysis and local scale modeling are limited in projecting global urban area growth with large spatial heterogeneities. In this study, we developed country-specific urban area growth models using the time series data set of global urban extents (1992–2013) and projected the future growth of urban areas under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our results indicate the global urban area would increase roughly 40–67% under five SSPs until 2050 relative to the base year of 2013, and this trend would continue to a growth ratio of more than 200% by 2100. The growth of urban areas under relatively unsustainable development pathways (e.g., regional rivalry SSP3 and inequality SSP4) is smaller compared to other SSPs. Although developing countries would remain as leading contributors to the increase of global urban areas in the future, they may exhibit different temporal patterns, that is, plateaued or monotonically increasing trends. This variation is primarily attributed to the compounding effect of the growth in population and gross domestic product. Our urban area data set presents a first country-level urban area projection under the five SSPs, spanning from 2013 to 2100. This data set has a great potential to support various global change studies, for example, urban sprawl simulation, integrated assessment modeling for sustainable development goals, and investigation of the impact of urbanization on atmospheric emissions, air quality, and human health.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗

Detecting Change in Urban Areas at Continental Scales with MODIS Data

Urbanization is one of the most important components of global environmental change, yet most of what we know about urban areas is at the local scale. Remote sensing of urban expansion across large areas provides information on the spatial and temporal patterns of growth that are essential for understanding differences in socioeconomic and political factors that spur different forms of development, as well the social, environmental, and climatic impacts that result. However, mapping urban expansion globally is challenging: urban areas have a small footprint compared to other land cover types, their features are small, they are heterogeneous in both material composition and configuration, and the form and rates of new development are often highly variable across locations. Here we demonstrate a methodology for monitoring urban land expansion at continental to global scales using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The new method focuses on resolving the spectral and temporal ambiguities between urban/non-urban land and stable/changed areas by: (1) spatially constraining the study extent to known locations of urban land; (2) integrating multitemporal data from multiple satellite data sources to classify c. 2010 urban extent; and (3) mapping newly built areas (2000-2010) within the 2010 urban land extent using a multi-temporal composite change detection approach based on MODIS 250 m annual maximum enhanced vegetation index (EVI). We test the method in 15 countries in East-Southeast Asia experiencing different rates and manifestations of urban expansion. A two-tiered accuracy assessment shows that the approach characterizes urban change across a variety of socioeconomic/political and ecological/climatic conditions with good accuracy (70-91% overall accuracy by country, 69-89% by biome). The 250 m EVI data not only improve the classification results, but are capable of distinguishing between change and no-change areas in urban areas. Over 80% of the error in the change detection can be related to definitional issues or error propagation, rather than algorithm error. As such, these methods hold great potential for routine monitoring of urban change, as well as for providing a consistent and up-to-date dataset on urban extent and expansion for a rapidly evolving region.

Urban areas↗

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Differences in Health Care, Family, and Community Factors Associated with Mental, Behavioral, and Developmental Disorders Among Children Aged 2–8 Years in Rural and Urban Areas — United States, 2011–2012

Problem/Condition: Mental, behavioral, and developmental disorders (MBDDs) begin in early childhood and often affect lifelong health and well-being. Persons who live in rural areas report more health-related disparities than those in urban areas, including poorer health, more health risk behaviors, and less access to health resources. Reporting Period: 2011–2012. Description of System: The National Survey of Children’s Health (NSCH) is a cross-sectional, random-digit–dial telephone survey of parents or guardians that collects information on noninstitutionalized children aged <18 years in the United States. Interviews included indicators of health and well-being, health care access, and family and community characteristics. Using data from the 2011–2012 NSCH, this report examines variations in health care, family, and community factors among children aged 2–8 years with and without MBDDs in rural and urban settings. Restricting the data to U.S. children aged 2–8 years with valid responses for child age and sex, each MBDD, and zip code resulted in an analytic sample of 34,535 children; MBDD diagnosis was determined by parent report and was not validated with health care providers or medical records. Results: A higher percentage of all children in small rural and large rural areas compared with all children in urban areas had parents who reported experiencing financial difficulties (i.e., difficulties meeting basic needs such as food and housing). Children in all rural areas more often lacked amenities and lived in a neighborhood in poor condition. However, a lower percentage of children in small rural and isolated areas had parents who reported living in an unsafe neighborhood, and children in isolated areas less often lived in a neighborhood lacking social support, less often lacked a medical home, and less often had a parent with fair or poor mental health. Across rural subtypes, approximately one in six young children had a parent-reported MBDD diagnosis. A higher prevalence was found among children in small rural areas (18.6%) than in urban areas (15.2%). In urban and the majority of rural subtypes, children with an MBDD more often lacked a medical home, had a parent with poor mental health, lived in families with financial difficulties, and lived in a neighborhood lacking physical and social resources than children without an MBDD within each of those community types. Only in urban areas did a higher percentage of children with MBDDs lack health insurance than children without MBDDs. After adjusting for race/ethnicity and poverty among children with MBDDs, those in rural areas more often had a parent with poor mental health and lived in resource-low neighborhoods than those in urban areas. Interpretation: Certain health care, family, and community disparities were more often reported among children with MBDDS than among children without MBDDs in rural and urban areas. Public Health Action: Collaboration involving health care, family, and community services and systems can be used to address fragmented services and supports for children with MBDDs, regardless of whether they live in urban or rural areas. However, addressing differences in health care, family, and community factors and leveraging community strengths among children who live in rural areas present opportunities to promote health among children in rural communities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Nonuniform Response of Vegetation Phenology to Daytime and Nighttime Warming in Urban Areas

The phenological response of vegetation to changing climates requires exploration across environments, including urban areas with elevated daytime and nighttime temperatures (T D and T N ) and artificial lights. Here, we analyzed multiple remotely-sensed datasets (2012–2021) from and around a highly-urbanized area, Seoul, in South Korea. While the urban fraction and artificial lights largely contributed to advancing the start-of-season (SOS) and delaying the end-of-season (EOS) (30.7–42.1%), SOS changes were more driven by T D (15.7%), whereas EOS changes were more attributed to T N (21.8%). A higher response of the SOS to T D was found in more urbanized areas with higher artificial lights, while the sensitivity of the EOS to T N increased in brighter areas during nighttime. These findings indicate that vegetation’s response to rising temperatures will become dynamic, given the potential constraints by light and other attributes, calling for further assessments of its implication for terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle.

JiHyun Kim↗

Assessment of Sustainability Development in Urban Areas of Morocco

In Morocco, the last census counted 70% of houses in cities, with seven cities accounting for 25% of the total population and 41% of the urban population. This paper questioned the sustainability indicator in Moroccan cities using a novel methodology based on Earth observations and census data. We estimated the indicator for the 25 largest urban areas between 2003 and 2013. A stratification based on urbanization fractions allowed for the definition and comparison of hierarchically ordered zones consistent across urban areas and scales. We found no systematic pattern of growth between cities. However, three categories of development were identified: a group of large cities with an indicator less than unity and land consumption commensurate to population growth, a group of medium-sized cities trending moderately towards unsustainability with an indicator between one and two, and a group including small cities with significant departure from sustainability. The disparate sustainability levels between urban areas appear to be related to the rapid economic growth, typical of an emerging economy. Our results indicate a continuous population growth pushing outwards the perimeters of existing urban areas. Unless regulated, land consumption is increasing faster than the population in most parts of Morocco, in line with global trends.

Lahouari Bounoua↗

Correlations Between Panoramic Imagery and Gamma-Ray Background in an Urban Area

When searching for radiological sources in an urban area, a vehicle-borne detector system will often measure complex, varying backgrounds primarily from natural gamma-ray sources. Much work has been focused on developing spectral algorithms that retain sensitivity and minimize the false-positive rate even in the presence of such spectral and temporal variability. However, information about the environment surrounding the detector system might also provide useful clues about the expected background, which if incorporated into an algorithm, could improve performance. Recent work has focused on extensive measuring and modeling of urban areas with the goal of understanding how these complex backgrounds arise. This work presents an analysis of panoramic video images and gamma-ray background data collected in Oakland, California, by the radiological multisensor analysis platform (RadMAP) vehicle. Features were extracted from the panoramic images by semantically labeling the images and then convolving the labeled regions with the detector response. A linear model was used to relate the image-derived features to gamma-ray spectral features obtained using nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) under different regularizations. Here we find some gamma-ray background features correlate strongly with image-derived features that measure the response-adjusted solid angle subtended by sky and buildings, and we discuss the implications for the development of future, contextually aware detection algorithms.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Sustainable Development in Algeria’s Urban Areas: Population Growth and Land Consumption

We analyzed the urban development sustainability in five major urban areas of Algeria by the standard of the UN Sustainability Development Goal indicator SDG 11.3.1, which focuses on the ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate. We utilized the annual global artificial impervious area (GAIA) dataset to characterize land-use and population data from the two censuses carried out by the National Office of Statistics (ONS) for 2008 and 2018. We discuss the prevailing relationship between urban land consumption rate and population growth rate at the smallest territorial and population census unit scale. We confirm that the indicator SDG 11.3.1 is nonlinear and that while, for example, the wilaya of Tlemcen as a whole appears to be on a sustainable path, twenty-one of its communes are not. We found that overall, and for most of its communes, the wilaya of Oran seems to have an urban land use commensurable to its population growth, but in the wilaya of Algiers, out of fifty-seven communes, only fourteen have a tendency towards sustain-able development. However, the latter wilaya hosts the country’s capital and includes government buildings that are uninhabited but are accounted for as land consumed, and as such, the relationship between urban land consumption and population growth is biased. The wilaya of Annaba showed large discrepancies in terms of land use and population growth rates, and the evolution of these quantities is not homogenous across communes and not sustainable. In the Saharan wilaya of Ghardaia, the development is not homogeneous in all communes, with smaller communes undergoing buildup increases of more than 150% over the decade. Finally, in all communes where population growth exceeded urban land growth, there will be overcrowding, an aspect neither the SDG 11.3.1 nor the impervious surface per capita indicator captures. This result, in addition to other limitations, makes SDG 11.3.1 incomplete for the determination of the sustainable development in urban areas.

Algeria↗

A prediction model of signal degradation in LMSS for urban areas

A prediction model of signal degradation in a Land Mobile Satellite Service (LMSS) for urban areas is proposed. This model treats shadowing effects caused by buildings statistically and can predict a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of signal diffraction losses in urban areas as a function of system parameters such as frequency and elevation angle and environmental parameters such as number of building stories and so on. In order to examine the validity of the model, we compared the percentage of locations where diffraction losses were smaller than 6 dB obtained by the CDF with satellite visibility measured by a radiometer. As a result, it was found that this proposed model is useful for estimating the feasibility of providing LMSS in urban areas.

Matsudo, Takashi↗

On Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas: Observations from Space-borne Rain Radar on TRMM - Part 1

This study represents one of the first published attempts to identify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Data from the first space-based rain-radar, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, are employed. Analysis of the data enables identification of rainfall patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas during the warm season. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage chances are relative to an upwind CONTROL area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area can exceed the mean value in the upwind CONTROL area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. These results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work will investi(yate hypothesized factors causing rainfall modification by urban areas. Additional work is also needed to provide more robust validation of space-based rain estimates near major urban areas. Such research has implications for urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China

Highlights: • The study projects future heat-related mortality risk in 51 major cities in China. • The projections are based on high resolution climate and population projections. • Future heat mortality risk is likely to be considerable under all emission scenarios. • Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk. Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041–2060) relative to 1970–2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300–43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200–36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300–29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800–14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200–40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Updating census urban area maps with LANDSAT data

The use of LANDSAT data for updating census maps of urbanized areas by identification of a fringe of suburban territory to be considered for inclusion within a revised urban area map is described. Methodologies of the application system verification and transfer project are evaluated. These include manual analysis of color photographs, line printer maps, and land cover classifications; change detection using an image differencing routine to depict changes in reflectance values between the two anniversary LANDSAT images; and use of the IBIS/VICAR digital image processing system. Application of IBIS/VICAR to mapping the Orlando, Florida area is described in detail.

Friedman, S. Z.↗

Test plan and preliminary report of airborne electromagentic environment survey over USA urban areas 0.4 to 18.0 GHz

An airborne electromagnetic environment survey is described of five urban areas where terrestrially-generated radio-frequency interference was measured over the frequency range from 0.4 to 18.0 GHz. A chartered Cessna 402 aircraft contained necessary measurement test equipment, including the receiving antennas mounted beneath the fuselage. Urban areas including Washington, D.C.; Baltimore, MD; Philadelphia, PA; New York, NY; Chicago, ILL; and Palestine, TX were surveyed. A flight test plan and preliminary test results for the 0.4 to 1.4 GHz frequency range, are included; a final test report describes more detailed results.

Taylor, R. E.↗