Evaluating and Improving the USGS 3D Seismic Velocity Model in the San Francisco East Bay by Integrating Earthquake Ground-Motion Simulations and Noise-Derived Empirical Green's Functions
Simulations of scenario earthquake ground motions play an increasingly important role in improving seismic hazard assessment. In the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) the USGS has developed a 3D geologic/seismic model. Simulations of large magnitude (M) 7 Hayward Fault scenario earthquakes show dramatic differences in peak ground motions across the fault, arising from wavespeed differences, which highlights the need to evaluate the model. Our comparison of observed and simulated waveforms from M 4 SFBA earthquakes reveals bias in the travel times of direct S-waves for paths crossing the East Bay Hills, east of Hayward Fault, suggests that the shear wavespeeds in the upper crust of the USGS 3D model are too low, resulting in large delay times of S-wave arrivals at the East Bay Hills. We also retrieved noise-derived Green's functions (NGFs) and examined the path-specific bias in the USGS 3D model. We systematically compared synthetic waveforms with the 3D velocity model and observed NGFs. Our result shows that the time lags between the synthetic and observed data ranging from 2-5 seconds for the ray paths propagating the East Bay Hills. This result also suggests that the SFBA 3D model generates arrivals that are too slow. Additionally, we evaluate the Rayleigh-wave ellipticity to evaluate the subsurface velocity beneath seismic stations. A lateral variation in Rayleigh-wave ellipticity across the Hayward fault is observed, which will contribute to refine the SFBA 3D velocity model.