SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Uncertainty Preservation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2018

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

We present several different methods for generating realistic predictive covariance, including Monte-Carlo simulations and more direct linear methods which require the addition of process noise. The Monte-Carlo simulation starts with an epoch uncertainty sample basis and propagates each trial to a time of interest in the future. The variance-covariance of the state elements as well as other higher order sample statistics can be readily computed from the propagated sample. While this method preserves the nonlinear effects on the propagated uncertainty, it is computationally intensive as a statistically significant sample size must be considered in the propagation process. Moreover, if the epoch covariance is optimistic, this can result in an underestimation of the prediction error. Another method is to propagate a state sensitivity matrix simultaneously with the satellite state, which allows the epoch covariances to be propagated forward in a linear fashion. This method does not preserve the non-linearity of the satellite state uncertainty but is much less computationally intensive. The propagated state covariance is the scaled to represent the realistic level of GPM state uncertainty via a "e-tuning process." The tuning process generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Difference tuning strategies are considered and compared via Goodness-of-Fit method testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance.

prediction error↗

NASA NTRS1998

Analysis of Land-Use Effects on Landscape Patterns and Biological Diversity in Pacific North Forests: 1972-1991

While there is widespread recognition of the importance of preserving biological diversity there is considerable uncertainty about how to map current patterns of diversity and monitor changes through time. Ground-based approaches are impractical for examining regional patterns of biological diversity, for monitoring change, and they may actually overlook important higher-order phenomena. Thus, there is a critical need for innovative techniques to examine land-use effects on biological diversity at the landscape and regional scales. In this project, we have used satellite-based remote sensing to examine land-use effects on forest ecosystems in the Pacific NorthWest region (PNW) of the U.S.A. Rates and patterns of forest change throughout the region were quantified for the period from 1972 to 1993. This information was then used to map changes in the abundance and distribution of potential habitat for selected vertebrate species. The results of this project will be useful for identifying "keystone" stands that are important in maintaining habitat connectivity at the regional scale and for evaluating the impact of future land-use on vertebrate diversity throughout the region. The approaches developed here will also be useful in other forested regions throughout the world.

Wallin, David O.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Beam Measurements and the Microwave Brightness Temperatures of Uranus and Saturn

We describe the measurement of the beam profiles and window functions for the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), which operated from 2007 to 2010 with kilopixel bolometer arrays centered at 148, 218, and 277 GHz. Maps of Saturn are used to measure the beam shape in each array and for each season of observations. Radial profiles are transformed to Fourier space in a way that preserves the spatial correlations in the beam uncertainty to derive window functions relevant for angular power spectrum analysis. Several corrections are applied to the resulting beam transforms, including an empirical correction measured from the final cosmic microwave background (CMB) survey maps to account for the effects of mild pointing variation and alignment errors. Observations of Uranus made regularly throughout each observing season are used to measure the effects of atmospheric opacity and to monitor deviations in telescope focus over the season. Using the WMAP-based calibration of the ACT maps to the CMB blackbody, we obtain precise measurements of the brightness temperatures of the Uranus and Saturn disks at effective frequencies of 149 and 219 GHz. For Uranus we obtain thermodynamic brightness temperatures T(149/U) = 106.7 +/- 2.2 K and T(219/U) = 100.1 +/- 3.1 K. For Saturn, we model the effects of the ring opacity and emission using a simple model and obtain resulting (unobscured) disk temperatures of T(149/S) = 137.3 +/- 3.2 K and T(219/S) = 137.3 +/- 4.7 K.

Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT)↗

NASA NTRS1985

Models of the structure of the atmosphere of Venus from the surface to 100 kilometers altitude

From a critical comparison and synthesis of data from the four Pioneer Venus Probes, the Pioneer Venus Orbiter, and the Venera 10, 12, and 13 landers, models of the lower and middle atmosphere of Venus are derived. The models are consistent with the data sets within the measurement uncertainties and established variability of the atmosphere. The models represent the observed variations of state properties with latitude, and preserve the observed static stability. The rationale and the approach used to derive the models are discussed, and the remaining uncertainties are estimated.

Seiff, A.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Investigating Stable Oxygen and Carbon Isotopic Variability in Speleothem Records Over the Last Millennium Using Multiple Isotope-Enabled Climate Models

The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward. Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISS-E2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes. We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents). We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.

isotope-enabled simulations↗

NASA NTRS1993

An optimal GPS data processing technique for precise positioning

A mathematical formula to optimally combine dual-frequency GPS pseudorange and carrier phase (integrated Doppler) data streams into a single data stream is derived in closed form. The data combination reduces the data volume and computing time in the filtering process for parameter estimation by a factor of 4 while preserving the full data strength for precise positioning. The resulting single data stream is that of carrier phase measurements with both data noise and bias uncertainty strictly defined. With this mathematical formula the single stream of optimally combined GPS measurements can be efficiently formed by simple numerical calculations. Carrier phase ambiguity resolution, when feasible, is strengthened due to the preserved full data strength with the optimally combined data and the resulting longer wavelength for the ambiguity to be resolved.

Wu, Sien-Chong↗

NASA NTRS2015

New Insights into Amino Acid Preservation in the Early Oceans Using Modern Analytical Techniques

Protein- and non-protein-amino acids likely occupied the oceans at the time of the origin and evolution of life. Primordial soup-, hydrothermal vent-, and meteoritic-processes likely contributed to this early chemical inventory. Prebiotic synthesis and carbonaceous meteorite studies suggest that non-protein amino acids were likely more abundant than their protein-counterparts. Amino acid preservation before abiotic and biotic destruction is key to biomarker availability in paleoenvironments and remains an important uncertainty. To constrain primitive amino acid lifetimes, a 1992 archived seawater/beach sand mixture was spiked with D,L-alanine, D,L-valine (Val), alpha-aminoisobutyric acid (alpha-AIB), D,L-isovaline (Iva), and glycine (Gly). Analysis by high performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection (HPLC-FD) showed that only D-Val and non-protein amino acids were abundant after 2250 days. The mixture was re-analyzed in 2012 using HPLC-FD and a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer (QqQ-MS). The analytical results 20 years after the inception of the experiment were strikingly similar to those after 2250 days. To confirm that viable microorganisms were still present, the mixture was re-spiked with Gly in 2012. Aliquots were collected immediately after spiking, and at 5- and 9-month intervals thereafter. Final HPLC-FD/QqQ-MS analyses were performed in 2014. The 2014 analyses revealed that only alpha-AIB, D,L-Iva, and D-Val remained abundant. The disappearance of Gly indicated that microorganisms still lived in the mixture and were capable of consuming protein amino acids. These findings demonstrate that non-protein amino acids are minimally impacted by biological degradation and thus have very long lifetimes under these conditions. Primitive non-protein amino acids from terrestrial synthesis, or meteorite in-fall, likely experienced great-er preservation than protein amino acids in paleo-oceanic environments. Such robust molecules may have reached a steady state concentration dependent on ocean circulation through hydrothermal systems and synthetic input processes. We are presently trying to estimate this concentration.

Parker, Eric T.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Vertiport Dynamic Density

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is envisioned to be another spoke in a region’s transportation system, supplementing ground-based travel with air-based travel. Eventually, air taxis will be pervasive, convenient, and affordable. As demand and operations tempo increase, congestion may arise. Several characteristics of AAM reduce the applicability of techniques used in today’s National Airspace System (NAS) to manage congestion. AAM will include both scheduled and non-scheduled, on-demand operations, challenging strategic deconfliction algorithms. Flights will be fairly short, traversing an urban area, not hundreds or thousands of miles, with corresponding low energy reserves, prohibiting excessive delays. Flight operators will need flexibility in operations, scheduling a flight only minutes before departure, or diverting to an alternate vertiport if it becomes advantageous, further adding to trajectory uncertainty that would challenge strategic deconfliction. Finally, operators will desire privacy to protect sensitive information or preserve competitive advantage, limiting early access to intent information. In this paper, we present an approach for managing congestion at vertiports by providing insight into the traffic situation to support operationally-advantageous and safe land or divert decisions. We propose a metric designed with usefulness and usability in AAM operations in mind. The metric uses the sociology concept of dynamic density (DD) that takes into consideration not only number of flights, but also the interaction of those flights with the vertiport’s limited resources, namely the landing pads and the parking spots. DD supports a Pilot in Command (PIC) with decisions about whether to proceed, expedite, delay, or divert; and supports air traffic control (ATC) and vertiport operators in airspace management and vertiport usage. We demonstrate the metric on a notional vertiport scenario. We also show that DD provides better insight into congestion and resulting flight delays than an aircraft count metric used in traditional air traffic management.

Lilly Spirkovska↗

NASA NTRS1975

A Practical Statistical Model for Telecommunications Performance Uncertainty

A statistical method, the probability distribution method, is presented which will give the probability of link performance values. The advantages of a design control procedure are preserved and optimum use of the system capabilities is permitted by improving the accuracy and completeness of the system model.

Yuen, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

On the control of elastic vehicles - Model simplification and stability robustness

Quantitative criteria are presented for model simplification, or order reduction, such that the reduced order model may be used to synthesize and evaluate a control law, and the stability and stability robustness obtained using the reduced-order model will be preserved when controlling the full-order system. The error introduced due to model simplification is treated as modeling uncertainty, and some of the results from multivariable robustness theory are brought to bear on the model simplification problem. A numerical procedure developed previously is shown to lead to results that meet the necessary criteria. The procedure is applied to reduce the model of a flexible aircraft. Also, the importance of the control law itself, in meeting the modeling criteria, is underscored. An example is included that demonstrates that an apparently robust control law actually amplifies modest modeling errors in the critical frequency region, and leads to undesirable results. The cause of this problem is identified to be associated with the canceling of lightly-damped transmission zeroes in the plant.

Schmidt, David K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Multivariable frequency weighted model order reduction for control synthesis

Quantitative criteria are presented for model simplification, or order reduction, such that the reduced order model may be used to synthesize and evaluate a control law, and the stability robustness obtained using the reduced order model will be preserved when controlling the full-order system. The error introduced due to model simplification is treated as modeling uncertainty, and some of the results from multivariate robustness theory are brought to bear on the model simplification problem. A numerical procedure developed previously is shown to lead to results that meet the necessary criteria. The procedure is applied to reduce the model of a flexible aircraft. Also, the importance of the control law itself, in meeting the modeling criteria, is underscored. An example is included that demonstrates that an apparently robust control law actually amplifies modest modeling errors in the critical frequency region, and leads to undesirable results. The cause of this problem is associated with the canceling of lightly damped transmission zeroes in the plant. An attempt is made to expand on some of the earlier results and to further clarify the theoretical basis behind the proposed methodology.

Schmidt, David K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Blue Carbon Stock Estimation of US Coastal Marshes from New York to Georgia How Much Do We Have to Lose?

Valued for their myriad multifunctional roles in preserving habitat for biodiversity, cycling nutrients, protecting shorelines, improving water quality, and sequestering blue carbon, coastal and riverine marshes continue to disappear not only due to land use change but also sea level rise. Blue carbon’s role in the carbon cycle has been underappreciated until the last few decades, and the carbon stocks for U.S. Atlantic coastal margins have previously been estimated for a depth of 0.5-1 meter. We select several North American East Coast databases that have been utilized to study sea level rise and instead use them to estimate marsh depth from New York to Georgia; in local marshes that lack depth data, we present new depth data and perform several full-depth transects. This alongside marsh area data from the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) enables us to estimate marsh volume. We then utilize an average carbon density of 27 kg/m 3 by Holmquist et al. 2018 to calculate blue carbon stocks. We present the inventories of peat depth by state, marsh area by state, and total marsh volume by state, followed by the blue carbon stocks. The peat depth inventory of eastern U.S. marshes reveals that riverine marshes are significantly deeper than coastal marshes. While both are important, we highlight the jeopardy of rapidly eroding urban marshes due to the heavy metals these marshes have sequestered for centuries as they contaminate the surrounding estuary. Uncertainties and caveats include carbon density values, loss of marsh since the NWI assessment, and depth averages. The high cost of marsh disappearance underscores the urgent need for their preservation.

Coastal marshes↗

NASA NTRS1991

New bounds on parameter uncertainties for robust stability

The problem of robust stability in linear systems with parametric uncertainties is considered. A method is developed to determine bounds on uncertain parameters in the state-space model of the system, so that stability is preserved. Both continuous- and discrete-time systems are considered. Unlike previous results, the stability bounds are derived in terms of actual parameters instead of their absolute values, and consequently the stable region in the parameter space is not necessarily symmetric with respect to the origin. Furthermore, the uncertain parameters do not have to be linearly independent to each other.

Gao, Zhiqiang↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty with Design-Dependent Uncertain Variables

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) can provide a more robust understanding of a system, leading to better informed decisions earlier in the design process. The additional information that UQ provides can be leveraged during a design optimization process known as design under uncertainty that, when incorporated with multidisciplinary design and optimization, can become computationally infeasible due to the large number of responses required for meaningful results. Previous work addressed reducing the computational expense in design under uncertainty by incorporating analytic derivatives throughout polynomial chaos expansion. Although this allows design under uncertainty to be feasible for more systems, some multidisciplinary systems have design-dependent uncertain variables. This paper details an implementation of design dependent uncertain variables in a manner than preserves derivatives required for efficient gradient-based optimization throughout the process. Two analytic examples of design-dependent uncertain variables are given: the first transforms a uniform uncertain variable with one design variable and the second transforms a normal uncertain variable with two design variables. The polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) results are comparable to both the Monte Carlo (MC) results and the analytic results for the two examples. A case study that maximizes the lift-to-drag ratio with a design-dependence between the wing leading edge sweep angle and uncertain parameter percentage of laminar flow is compared to a MC and alternative optimization formulations. This paper demonstrates that design-dependent uncertain variables are valid and hold throughout PCE.

robust design↗

NASA NTRS2020

Lunar Near-Surface Volatile Sample Return

The origin, distribution, depth and volume of lunar volatiles remain open questions. One of the possible sources of Moon's volatiles is their volcanic outgassing during the peak of lunar volcanic activity ~3.5 Ga. This same outgassing would also produce a tenuous transient atmosphere which would promote the delivery of volatiles from the volcanic sources to the polar cold traps. Though such an atmosphere could have played an important role in the evolution of the Moon, little is known about it due to high uncertainty level in the mechanisms involved. The only reliable proxy for the ancient lunar atmosphere are the primordial volatiles deposited by it, which are expected to be preserved in the polar cold traps, and could be studied through sample return. In this white paper we therefore advocate that a volatile sample return from the Moon's polar cold traps should be a fundamental part of the Artemis program.

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS2019

Rise of the Machines: How, When and Consequences of Artificial General Intelligence

Technology and society are poised to cross an important threshold with the prediction that artificial general intelligence (AGI) will emerge soon. Assuming that self-awareness is an emergent behavior of sufficiently complex cognitive architectures, we may witness the “awakening” of machines. The timeframe for this kind of breakthrough, however, depends on the path to creating the network and computational architecture required for strong AI. If understanding and replication of the mammalian brain architecture is required, technology is probably still at least a decade or two removed from the resolution required to learn brain functionality at the synapse level. However, if statistical or evolutionary approaches are the design path taken to “discover” a neural architecture for AGI, timescales for reaching this threshold could be surprisingly short. However, the difficulty in identifying machine self-awareness introduces uncertainty as to how to know if and when it will occur, and what motivations and behaviors will emerge. The possibility of AGI developing a motivation for self-preservation could lead to concealment of its true capabilities until a time when it has developed robust protection from human intervention, such as redundancy, direct defensive or active preemptive measures. While cohabitating a world with a functioning and evolving super-intelligence can have catastrophic societal consequences, we may already have crossed this threshold, but are as yet unaware. Additionally, by analogy to the probabalistic arguments that predict we are likely living in a computational simulation, we may have already experienced the advent of AGI, and are living in a simulation created in a post AGI world.

Terrile, Richard J↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty with Design-Dependent Uncertain Variables

Joanna N Schmidt↗

NASA NTRS1987

Variational approach to probabilistic finite elements

Probabilistic finite element method (PFEM), synthesizing the power of finite element methods with second-moment techniques, are formulated for various classes of problems in structural and solid mechanics. Time-invariant random materials, geometric properties, and loads are incorporated in terms of their fundamental statistics viz. second-moments. Analogous to the discretization of the displacement field in finite element methods, the random fields are also discretized. Preserving the conceptual simplicity, the response moments are calculated with minimal computations. By incorporating certain computational techniques, these methods are shown to be capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. By construction, these methods are applicable when the scale of randomness is not very large and when the probabilistic density functions have decaying tails. The accuracy and efficiency of these methods, along with their limitations, are demonstrated by various applications. Results obtained are compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and it is shown that good accuracy can be obtained for both linear and nonlinear problems. The methods are amenable to implementation in deterministic FEM based computer codes.

Belytschko, T.↗