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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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PSUADE (Problem Solving testbed for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration) is a mathematical software useful for performing uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis.
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Abstract Tropical cyclone formation is known to require abundant water vapor in the lower to middle troposphere within the incipient disturbance. In this study, we assess the impacts of local water vapor analysis uncertainty on the predictability of the formation of Hurricane Irma (2017). To this end, we reduce the magnitude of the incipient disturbance’s water vapor perturbations obtained from an ensemble-based data assimilation system that constrained moisture by assimilating all-sky infrared and microwave radiances. Five-day ensemble forecasts are initialized two days before genesis using each set of modified analysis perturbations. Growth of convective differences and intensity uncertainty are evaluated for each ensemble forecast. We observe that when initializing an ensemble forecast with only moisture uncertainty within the incipient disturbance, the resulting intensity uncertainty at every lead time exceeds half that of an ensemble containing initial perturbations to all variables throughout the domain. Although ensembles with different initial moisture uncertainty amplitudes reveal a similar pathway to genesis, uncertainty in genesis timing varies substantially across ensembles since moister members exhibit earlier spinup of the low-level vortex. These differences in genesis timing are traced back to the first 6–12 h of integration, when differences in the position and intensity of mesoscale convective systems across ensemble members develop more quickly with greater initial moisture uncertainty. In addition, the rapid growth of intensity uncertainty may be greatly modulated by the diurnal cycle. Ultimately, this study underscores the importance of targeting the incipient disturbance with high spatiotemporal water vapor observations for ingestion into data assimilation systems. Significance Statement Hurricanes form from clusters of thunderstorms that organize into a coherent system. One of the key ingredients for the formation process is an abundance of moisture. In this study, we test the sensitivity of hurricane formation to the initial moisture content in the vicinity of the cluster of thunderstorms that would become Hurricane Irma (2017). To do so, we initialize sets of forecasts each having a different variability of initial moisture content within the embryonic disturbance. Our results show that the predictability of hurricane formation is highly dependent on the uncertainty of the moisture content within the initial disturbance. Consequently, more high-quality observations of the moisture within the precursor disturbances to hurricanes are expected to improve forecasts of their formation.
This is a workshop material, introducing capabilities of RAVEN for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification.
Tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles are a fuel form being considered for potential use in next-generation nuclear reactors (i.e., high-temperature gas-cooled reactors). Though the TRISO fuel manufacturing process has continually advanced in recent years, particle comparisons still reveal statistical variations and uncertainties in terms of geometric configurations and material properties. Given that the physical processes ongoing in TRISO fuel particles during reactor operation are highly correlated with each other, a small degree of uncertainty in one model may lead to significant uncertainty in another. This makes appropriate uncertainty quantification of TRISO fuel particles essential. However, one may wonder about the extent to which the current version of TRISO particles has been optimized, and whether any room remains for further improvements. This paper quantifies TRISO fuel performance model uncertainties that stem from geometric and material data. For this analysis, the BISON code was used, and the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiment served as a reference case. A total of 10 5 calculations was performed for the uncertainty and optimization analysis, altering the geometric and material data within their uncertainty range. Lastly, the optimization potential of TRISO particles is evaluated from a fuel performance perspective.
We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.
Optical identification of liquid droplets, aerosols, or thin films is important for many applications. While reference spectra are sometimes available for such measurements, they are not always applicable to the observed spectrum or the given sample morphology. Reference spectra for many forms can be modeled, however, if the n/k vectors (real and imaginary refractive indices) are available. In previous work we have reported protocols to determine the n/k vectors for dozens of liquids, primarily in the mid-infrared (MIR) spectral range from 7500 to 400 cm –1 . In this work we extend the spectral range into the near-infrared (NIR) region, demonstrating a method to measure and merge the data sets to create composite n/k data ranging from 10 000 to 400 cm –1 (1.0 to 25 µm) with absorbance fidelity spanning over four orders of magnitude, and vastly improved signal-to-noise in the NIR. The precision of the composite data is evaluated for three different liquids, focusing primarily on the steps for converting the raw absorbance spectra to k values. The variability in both MIR and NIR data as well as in the final n/k vectors is also investigated for several liquids. For typical liquids, the overall variability (reported as 2σ) in the final n and k-vectors is determined to be ∼0.4% and 3%, respectively. Finally, the derived n/k data are used to calculate absorbance spectra for aerosol droplets, showing marginal variability due to the typical measurement errors in the final n/k vectors.
In this paper, the development of a fission-gas collecting and physical-analysis-enabling instrument was proposed for small-volume determination. Analysis specifications require a design capable of accurately and repeatably determining volumes in the range of 0.07–2.5 mL. This system relies on a series of gas expansions originating from a cylinder with known internal volume. The combined gas law is used to derive the unknown volumes from these expansions. Initial system designs included one of two known volumes, 11.85 ± 0.34 mL and 5.807 ± 0.078 mL, with a manifold volume of 32 mL. Results obtained from modeling this system’s operation showed that 0.07 mL can be determined with a relative expanded uncertainty greater than 300% (k = 2) for a single replicate, which was unacceptable for the proposed experimental design. Initial modeling showed that the volume connecting the known volume and rodlet, i.e., the manifold volume, and the sensitivity of the pressure sensor were key contributors to the expanded uncertainty of the measured rodlet volume. The system’s design limited the available options for pressure sensors, so emphasis was placed on the design of the manifold volume. The final system design reduced the manifold volume to 17 mL. These changes in design, combined with replicate analysis, were able to reduce the relative expanded uncertainty by ±12% (k = 2) for the 0.07 mL volume.
The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.
HSSHTC, the safety basis steady state TH code for HFIR, uses a highly conservative approach in which all input and calculation uncertainties are resolved simultaneously at their most limiting setting. This results in excessive conservatism which does not account for the high unlikelihood of such simultaneous worst-case conditions. The present study explores an alternative approach, BEPU, in which reasonable working assumptions for the probability distribution of each input uncertainty are used to determine a relationship between burnout power margin and core fuel failure probability. This was performed under a philosophy of perturbing uncertainty parameters already defined within the HSSHTC methodology while preserving the HSSHTC calculation approach and solution methodology itself. Based on the assumptions employed in this study, the BEPU approach resulted in a 0.29 increase in burnout power ratio (25 MW increase in burnout power) compared to the latest HSSHTC calculations of C-HFIR-2026-004. The study can be refined in the future by employing fuel fabrication data to provide more realistic input distributions. Future changes to the HSSHTC methodology would potentially allow a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties which may further increase the burnout power ratio.
This study addressed the need to characterize variability in inhalation dose coefficients due to uncertainties in respiratory tract deposition, systemic biokinetics, and physiological parameters. A Python-based implementation of the International Commission on Radiological Protection Publication 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model was developed called the Radiological Exposure Dose Calculator (REDCAL) to propagate parameter uncertainty.
Factor Fixing (FF) is a common method for reducing the number of model parameters to lower computational cost. FF typically starts with distinguishing the insensitive parameters from the sensitive and pursues uncertainty quantification (UQ) on the resulting reduced-order model, fixing each insensitive parameter at a fixed value. There is a need, however, to expand such a common approach to consider the effects of decision choices in the FF-UQ procedure on metrics of interest. Therefore, to guide the use of FF and increase confidence in the resulting dimension-reduced model, we propose a new adaptive framework consisting of four principles: (a) re-parameterize the model first to reduce obvious non-identifiable parameter combinations, (b) focus on decision relevance especially with respect to errors in quantities of interest (QoI), (c) conduct adaptive evaluation and robustness assessment of errors in the QoI across FF choices as sample size increases, and (d) reconsider whether fixing is warranted. The framework is demonstrated on a spatially-distributed water quality model. The error in estimates of QoI caused by FF can be estimated using a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) surrogate model. Built with 70 model runs, the surrogate is computationally inexpensive to evaluate and can provide global sensitivity indices for free. For the selected catchment, just two factors may provide an acceptably accurate estimate of model uncertainty in the average annual load of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), suggesting that reducing the uncertainty in these two parameters is a priority for future work before undertaking further formal uncertainty quantification.
While monitoring of nitrate and nitrite concentrations is important for managing corrosion in nuclear waste systems, existing analytical methods are hindered by turbidity, spectral interference, and delays from sample handling. Here, we demonstrate quantitative 14 N nuclear magnetic resonance (qNMR) spectroscopy as a direct, matrix-tolerant approach for nitrate and nitrite detection at natural abundance. Monte Carlo resampling was integrated into the workflow to quantify random error, establish precision–time tradeoffs, and separate noise-limited uncertainty from systematic bias arising from shimming, transmitter offset, or excitation pulse conditions. Quantification of nitrate and nitrite were validated in controlled alkaline matrix challenges and in 18-component Hanford-type simulants. These results establish 14 N qNMR as a practical, uncertainty-bounded tool for monitoring redox-active nitrogen species in chemically complex environments and provide a generalizable framework for quantitative analysis of quadrupolar nuclei.
Determining ortho-parahydrogen compositions at cryogenic temperatures is an important quality control for liquid hydrogen custody exchange. High orthohydrogen compositions lead to an exothermic reaction resulting in increased boil off and increased venting losses of liquid hydrogen product by either the supplier or consumer. Traditional methods for measuring ortho-parahydrogen compositions such as hot-wire anemometry, nuclear magnetic resonance, and infrared spectroscopy are typically inconvenient at best. As the number of cryogenic hydrogen systems continue to increase, there is an increased need for flexible, standardized techniques for post processing composition measurements. A Raman spectrometer implemented in the Cryo-Catalysis Hydrogen Experimental Facility (CHEF) has demonstrated incredible flexibility for composition measurements of cryogenic hydrogen flows through a wide range of temperatures and pressures with the Raman probe in-situ at cryogenic temperatures. This article analyzes the uncertainty of Raman spectroscopy data of cryogenic hydrogen equilibrated at temperatures in IONEX catalyst. Spectra from hydrogen catalyzed to the equilibrium ortho-parahydrogen composition are processed and compared to expected statistical distributions for method verification.
The Fermilab Test Beam is a beam designed for R&D for a variety of experiments taking place at Fermilab, for instance the NOvA experiment. An essential component of the NOvA Test Beam is four wire chambers which measure the transverse position of particles travelling along the beamline. Occasionally, a particle will not produce a hit in one of the four wire chambers resulting in a “3 hit track” instead of the usual “4 hit track”. In our research, we explored the possibility of including these 3 hit tracks into analysis, and how they impact relevant statistics.
Previous work was performed on tuning CGMF parameters for 235 U, 238 U, and Plutonium isotopes. Now work is being done to tune minor uranium isotopes. However, uranium isotopes like 232 U and 236 U have almost no experimental data. We are applying cross-isotope models to extrapolate and tune CGMF on isotopes that lack experimental data. There exist several internal CGMF physics quantities that affect the output of CGMF—multi-chance fission probability, excitation energy sharing, spin-cutoff factor, spin scaling, and fragment total kinetic energy to name a few. The mean fragment total kinetic energy, $\overline{TKE}$, is particularly interesting because of its strong anti-correlation with $\bar{v}$. We are most interested in the mean fragment total kinetic energy before neutron emissions. $\overline{TKE}$ is assumed to be pre-neutron emission unless otherwise stated. Currently in CGMF, the $\overline{TKE}$ model for 233,234,235,238 U are tuned independently to reproduce ν for the associated isotopes. In this report, we will tune a cross-isotope $\overline{TKE}$ model to experimental $\overline{TKE}$ data for 232,233,234,235,236,238 U. Because of the unreliable and sparse nature of $\overline{TKE}$ experimental data, future work will use more reliable experimental $\bar{v}$ data to infer the $\overline{TKE}$ model (and likely other internal CGMF parameters) for uranium isotopes. Such work has been performed previously using a sensitivity analysis and Kalman filter methods.
Abstract not provided.
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