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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Managing uncertainty in data-driven simulation-based optimization

Optimization using data from complex simulations has become an attractive decision-making option, due to ability to embed high-fidelity, non-linear understanding of processes within the search for optimal values. Due to lack of tractable algebraic equations, the link between simulations and optimization is oftentimes a surrogate metamodel. However, several forms of uncertainty exist within the cycle that links simulation data, to metamodels, to optimization. Uncertainty may originate from parameters of the simulation, or the form and fitted parameters of the metamodel. This paper reviews different literatures that are relevant to surrogate-based optimization and proposes different strategies for handling uncertainty, by combining machine learning with stochastic programming, robust optimization, and discrepancy modeling. We show that incorporating uncertainty management within simulation-based optimization leads to more robust solutions, which protect the decision-maker from infeasible solutions. Here, we present the results of our proposed approaches through a case study for direct-air capture through temperature swing adsorption.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Decentralized wind uncertainty management: Alternating direction method of multipliers based distributionally-robust chance constrained optimal power flow

How to manage wind power uncertainty in system operation is an urgent and important issue, especially under substantially increasing penetration levels of wind generation in electric power systems. With increasing numbers of wind power plants (WPPs) integrated into power systems, their variability and uncertain power outputs become a challenge to maintaining system reliability. Traditional stochastic optimization-based models face the curse of dimensionality when the number of WPPs increases. This paper proposes a novel decentralized wind power uncertainty management model. In this model, conventional generators optimize their power capacity output and their participation to mitigate wind power uncertainty locally with only limited information exchange with the system operators. First, a distributionally-robust chance-constrained optimal power flow (DRCC-OPF) model is deployed to schedule the generation and reserve considering the wind power forecast uncertainty. Then, the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is used to reformulate the DRCC-OPF model into the distributed optimization model for each conventional generator and WPP. The tests on a small PJM 5-bus system and the IEEE 118-bus system demonstrate that the proposed decentralized model can increase the operation reliability without sacrificing system operating cost, especially when the wind power penetration levels are high. Using the proposed model, the optimal solutions can be obtained within one minute, for all studied cases, which verifies the computation efficiency of the proposed decentralized model. Furthermore, considering a large number of WPPs integrated into the system, the proposed decentralized method obtains a lower operating cost within one minute which demonstrates its efficiency to deal with high dimension of uncertainties.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Uncertainty Management Framework for Integrated Gas-Electric Energy Systems

In many parts of the world, electric power systems have seen a significant shift toward generation from renewable energy and natural gas. Because of their ability to flexibly adjust power generation in real time, gas-fired power plants are frequently seen as the perfect partner for variable renewable generation. However, this reliance on gas generation increases interdependence and propagates uncertainty between power grids and gas pipelines and brings coordination and uncertainty management challenges. To address these issues, we propose an uncertainty management framework for uncertain, but bounded gas consumption by gas-fired power plants. The admissible ranges are computed based on a joint optimization problem for the combined gas and electricity networks, which involves chance-constrained scheduling for the electric grid and a novel robust optimization formulation for the natural-gas network. This formulation ensures feasibility of the integrated system with a high probability, while providing a tractable numerical formulation. A key advance with respect to existing methods is that our method is based on a physically accurate, validated model for transient gas pipeline flows. Our case study benchmarks our proposed formulation against methods that ignore how reserve activation impacts the fuel use of gas power plants and only consider predetermined gas consumption. Here, the results demonstrate the importance of considering uncertainty to avoid operating constraint violations and curtailment of gas to the generators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar Uncertainty Management and Mitigation for Exceptional Reliability in Grid Operations (SUMMER-GO): Project Final Report

The Solar Uncertainty Management and Mitigation for Exceptional Reliability in Grid Operation (SUMMER-GO) project was recently completed through a collaboration among the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Maxar, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the University of Texas at Dallas, the University of California Berkeley, and the University of Colorado Boulder. The project made significant advances in probabilistic solar power forecasting, both through the development of Bayesian model averaging methods for ensemble forecasting and in bringing these and other advancements into practice with Maxar's delivery of operational forecasts to ERCOT. In addition to creating more reliable solar power forecasts, the project developed methods for their utilization in power system operations. These include the development of risk-aware unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithms and methods to reformulate probabilistic forecasts to be used in these power system operational models. Dynamic power system reserve methods were also developed, which have been shown in silico to create economic savings and reliability improvements on an ERCOT-like system as well as financial savings in the ERCOT system through more granular consideration of the uncertainty associated with solar power forecasts. Finally, a situational awareness tool to help grid operators better understand solar power forecast uncertainty in daily operations was developed and extensively vetted.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

An overview of methods to identify and manage uncertainty for modelling problems in the water-environment-agriculture cross-sector

Uncertainty pervades the representation of systems in the water–environment–agriculture cross-sector. Successful methods to address uncertainties have largely focused on standard mathematical formulations of biophysical processes in a single sector, such as partial or ordinary differential equations. More attention to integrated models of such systems is warranted. Model components representing the different sectors of an integrated model can have less standard, and different, formulations to one another, as well as different levels of epistemic knowledge and data informativeness. Thus, uncertainty is not only pervasive but also crosses boundaries and propagates between system components. Uncertainty assessment (UA) cries out for more eclectic treatment in these circumstances, some of it being more qualitative and empirical. Here in this paper, we discuss the various sources of uncertainty in such a cross-sectoral setting and ways to assess and manage them. We have outlined a fast-growing set of methodologies, particularly in the computational mathematics literature on uncertainty quantification (UQ), that seem highly pertinent for uncertainty assessment. There appears to be considerable scope for advancing UA by integrating relevant UQ techniques into cross-sectoral problem applications. Of course this will entail considerable collaboration between domain specialists who often take first ownership of the problem and computational methods experts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Managing Uncertainty and Flexibility in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

Net load imbalances from day ahead forecasts can lead to significant grid operations costs and are expected to increase as variable renewable energy adoption grows. We propose a new wholesale market product to manage the risk of net load imbalances called Flexibility Options. This product relies on probabilistic forecasts to estimate flexibility demand and would be co-optimized in the day-ahead market. We also propose stochastic methods that enable DER and flexible load aggregators to participate in flexibility markets while considering the uncertainty in weather and occupant behavior.

day-ahead market↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Computing for Scale-Up Problems

Adaptive Computing is an application-agnostic outer loop framework to strategically deploy simulations and experiments to guide decision making for scale-up analysis. Resources are allocated over successive batches, which makes the allocation adaptive to some objective such as optimization or model training. The framework enables the characterization and management of uncertainties associated with predictive models of complex systems when scale-up questions lead to significant model extrapolation. A key advancement of this framework is its integration of multi-fidelity surrogate modeling, uncertainty management, and automated orchestration of various computing and experimentation resources into a single integrated software package. This enables efficient multi-fidelity modeling across multiple computing resources by incorporating real-world constraints such as relative queue times and throughput on individual machines into the multi-fidelity sampling decision. We discuss applications of this framework to problems in the renewable energy space, including biofuels production, material synthesis, perovskite crystal growth, and building electrical loads.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modular supply chain optimization considering demand uncertainty to manage risk

Supply chain under demand uncertainty has been a challenging problem due to increased competition and market volatility in modern markets. Flexibility in planning decisions makes modular manufacturing a promising way to address this problem. We report the problem of multiperiod process and supply chain network design is considered under demand uncertainty. A mixed integer two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated with integer variables indicating the process design and continuous variables to represent the material flow in the supply chain. The problem is solved using a rolling horizon approach. Benders decomposition is used to reduce the computational complexity of the optimization problem. To promote risk-averse decisions, a downside risk measure is incorporated in the model. The results demonstrate the several advantages of modular designs in meeting product demands. A pareto-optimal curve for minimizing the objectives of expected cost and downside risk is obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take place within an EIA setting. More specifically, we have identified uncertainties involved in each decision-making step and discussed the extent to which these can be treated and managed in the context of an activity or project that may have environmental impacts. To further demonstrate the relevance of the techniques identified, we have examined the extent to which the EIA guidelines currently used in Colombia consider and provide guidance on managing the uncertainty involved in these assessments. Some points that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in impact assessments in Colombia have been identified. These include the management of stakeholder values, the systematic generation of project options, and their associated impacts as well as the associated management actions, and the evaluation of uncertainties and assumptions. We believe that the relevant and specific techniques reported here can be a reference for future evaluations of other EIA guidelines in different countries. - Highlights: • uncertainty is unavoidable in environmental impact assessments, EIAs; • we have identified some open techniques to EIAs for treating and managing uncertainty in these assessments; • points for improvement that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in EIAs in Colombia have been identified; • the paper provides substantiated a reference for possible examinations of EIAs guidelines in other countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

DOE site remedial management optimization utilizing on the cloud computing systems - 15676

Environmental cleanups at complex sites necessarily address many competing demands and answer questions such as: 'What is the best way and in a sustainable manner to minimize risk to human health and the environment during active restoration efforts and/or long term legacy management, while incorporating parameter uncertainty, management considerations, and stakeholder concerns into the process?' Physics Based Management Optimization (PBMO{sup TM}) provides a means to answer such questions. 'Physics Based' indicates incorporation of numerically computed groundwater flow and transport processes into the analysis. This enables optimal remedy design based on comprehensive mass removal/destruction metrics and optimal monitoring strategies. 'Management Optimization' indicates the ability to incorporate objective functions (e.g., management constraints, sustainability considerations) into the evaluation. PBMO{sup TM} components have been successfully implemented for optimal plume delineation (points of compliance) and monitoring, for optimal system design and to optimize existing active treatment systems in the US at multiple DOE, DOD and industrial sites since the mid 1990's. PBMO{sup TM} has been recently extended and implemented on multi-core, multi-CPU grid computing systems including computational clusters, local area networks and the Cloud. This extension allows for increased flexibility and adaptation of computational resources which can now support optimal remedy design and long term management strategies for complex soil and groundwater sites. In the PBMO{sup TM} -Grid case study, we evaluate flow and transport for a typical optimization search for a realistic project against sequential optimization. PBMO{sup TM}-Grid reduces the CPU time required to solve the optimization problem by more than a factor of 14 X compared to sequential optimization. PBMO{sup TM}-Grid can be deployed for deterministic or stochastic optimization and formally computes design risk and predicted degree of remedial action success. The numerical models used can consist of a single 'mega' model (aka a monolith), or a mixture of models and other calculations or expert systems. PBMO{sup T}M-Grid integrates the computational models in a seamless manner, and models run on the Cloud can be implemented in Windows or Linux platforms. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical Uncertainty of Inhalation Dose Coefficients in Consequence Management: Propagated Dose Uncertainty in ICRP 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model

Reference inhalation dose models rely on deterministic biokinetics and reference computational phantoms, limiting their applicability to the variability present in population-specific exposures encountered in emergency response scenarios. Here, this study introduces REDCAL, a Python-based computational framework developed to propagate uncertainty in inhalation dose coefficients using the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publication 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model. REDCAL integrates ICRP deposition and clearance models, systemic biokinetics, and governing physics principles, and leverages Sandia National Laboratories’ Dakota toolkit for uncertainty quantification via Latin Hypercube Sampling. REDCAL was validated against DCAL, with biokinetic retention results differing by less than 1% and effective dose coefficients by less than 2% across all tested radionuclides. Stochastic sampling introduced variability in dose coefficients, with geometric standard deviations (GSD) in committed effective dose coefficients (CEDC) ranging from 1.0 to 1.5, based on lognormal distribution fits. Analysis demonstrated that variations in the activity median aerodynamic diameter (AMAD) notably influenced the computed CEDC values. Smaller particles (<1 µm) increased doses by 20–30% due to deeper lung deposition and prolonged retention for alpha emitting radionuclides, such as 241 Am and 239 Pu. Radionuclides with fast clearance, such as 133 I, demonstrated a dose reduction exceeding 50%, as AMAD increased beyond 5 µm due to upper airway deposition and rapid mucociliary clearance. The greatest GSD among the radionuclides reported in this study was for 241 Am. In most cases, the largest GSDs in the CEDC were associated with larger particle sizes, an expected outcome, as ICRP Publication 66 defines GSD in particle size as a function of AMAD, resulting in an extended tail of the lognormal distribution. The findings support improved inhalation dose assessments and enhance consequence management strategies for the U.S. Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center by quantifying uncertainty in dose coefficients and strengthening decision-making for emergency response scenarios.

Biokinetic Modeling↗
DOE OSTI2015

Confidence in Numerical Simulations

This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗