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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Conditional distribution estimation of building characteristics with diffusion models for urban energy modeling

Understanding current energy consumption behavior in communities is critical for informing future energy use decisions and enabling efficient energy management. Urban energy models, which are used to simulate these energy use patterns, require large datasets with detailed building characteristics for accurate outcomes. However, such detailed characteristics at the individual building level are often unknown and costly to acquire, or unavailable. Through this work, we propose using a generative modeling approach to generate realistic building attributes to fill in the data gaps and finally provide complete characteristics as inputs to energy models. Our model learns complex, building-level patterns from training on a large-scale residential building stock model containing 2.2 million buildings. We employ a tabular diffusion-based framework that is designed to handle heterogeneous (discrete and continuous) features in tabular building data, such as occupancy, floor area, heating, cooling, and other equipment details. We develop a capability for conditional diffusion, enabling the imputation of missing building characteristics conditioned on known attributes. We conduct a comprehensive validation of our conditional diffusion model, firstly by comparing the generated conditional distributions against the underlying data distribution, and secondly, by performing a case study for a Baltimore residential region, showing the practical utility of our approach. Our work is one of the first to demonstrate the potential of generative modeling to accelerate building energy modeling workflows.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Open-Source Framework for Characterizing Urban Energy Models: Integrating Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methods to Predict Residential Buildings Characteristics: Preprint

Bottom-up urban energy models are crucial for understanding current energy use patterns and informing design strategies. However, accurately characterizing these models to represent different communities remains a challenge due to the extensive data needed for simulating existing energy use behavior. This data includes information related to human activities and building characteristics, all of which correlate with socioeconomic factors. To overcome this challenge, we developed an automated framework that utilizes both top-down and bottom-up data, to predict unknown building and occupant characteristics that are needed for more accurate and equitable modeling and analytics. Our framework, integrated into the URBANopt district energy modeling platform, uses statistical data models from ResStock. URBANopt models co-located buildings and neighborhoods. At this scale there are data gaps in building characteristic data, such as materials, insulation, occupancy, income, and energy usage of the buildings. To address this data gap, we use ResStock data, representative at the census tract scale, and develop machine-learning and deeplearning techniques to disaggregate it to individual buildings. By mapping unique occupant, building and economic properties to URBANopt energy models, we gain detailed insights into the variability of building energy use across different neighborhoods. This insight helps deploy technologies for co-located buildings and supports targeted upgrades for communities with unique economic and demographic characteristics, ensuring energy equity. Accurate characterization of energy models allows us to develop equitable strategies tailored to diverse neighborhoods, whether underserved or affluent. Our automated framework streamlines energy modeling and provides a reliable tool for building energy characterization.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

AI-Based Analytics and Energy Modeling Framework for Characterizing Urban Energy Systems

Developing location-specific district energy models is essential for understanding energy patterns and supporting efficient management and planning decisions. However, accurately characterizing these models remains challenging due to gaps in building characteristics and labor-intensive traditional modeling workflows. To address these challenges, we develop an AI-based framework that integrates top-down and bottom-up building energy data to automate urban energy model characterization. The framework trains multimodal deep learning models using heterogeneous ResStockTM datasets to infer missing building characteristics from varying levels of known information and generate simulation-ready inputs for district-scale energy modeling. It also employs a conditioning-based injection approach to generate ”what-if” scenarios, enabling users to explore retrofit, efficiency, and technology-upgrade pathways. Integrated within URBANoptTM, a bottom-up district energy modeling platform for simulating co-located buildings, the framework infers detailed building-level inputs required for bottom-up simulations. Both localized and generalized AI models are developed to learn relationships across categorical, numerical, and time-series data, enabling reconstruction of missing attributes and generation of targeted upgrade scenarios. We demonstrate this methodology on a residential neighborhood in Baltimore, MD, assessing internal consistency against ResStock reference data and URBANopt simulation, and comparing selected attributes against real-world building characteristics. Results show strong overall predictive accuracy in data completion and scenario generation, with localized and generalized models offering complementary trade-offs between precision and scalability. Overall, our automated framework streamlines energy modeling and provides a reliable framework for urban building energy characterization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

URBANopt: An Open-Source Software Development Kit for Community and Urban District Energy Modeling: Preprint

Urban building modeling tools are developing rapidly; these tools use emerging simulation workflows for specific urban environmental design tasks, such as assessing the impacts of energy efficiency technologies at a district scale. However, with the emergence of new environmental design tasks, addressing all possible use cases and tasks is challenging and cannot be covered by a single tool. Urban-scale analysis at this level of complexity often requires linking multiple emerging tools, rather than using a single tool, to adequately evaluate a variety of possible fields in urban environmental design. To achieve this, flexible platforms are needed to support multiple input formats (e.g., geometric and non-geometric building properties), enabling the mapping of such inputs to underlying simulation engines. This paper provides an overview of the open-source URBANopt Software Development Kit (SDK) for modeling high-performance buildings and energy systems at a district scale. URBANopt's flexible SDK is composed of several modules that can be customized to integrate with other tools and generate new workflows to perform urban environmental design tasks, such as capturing interactions between individual buildings, district energy systems, distributed energy resources, and the electric distribution grid. We describe the functionality of the core SDK modules in URBANopt (called Core Gem, GeoJSON Gem, and Scenario Gem) and discuss the flexibility of these modules as a means of integration with a variety of tools. We also document and demonstrate technical details of writing and combining new modules to create customized workflows. Finally, we present a case study that uses the URBANopt SDK to model a hypothetical mixed-use urban project and simulate various scenarios to meet district energy performance goals.

buildings↗
DOE OSTI2025

A machine learning method of modern urban building energy modeling: A case study of Chicago

Urban-scale building energy modeling is vital for urban planning. However, it can be challenging to assimilate reliable non-geometry building data for urban-scale modeling without extensive investment. Here, this study introduces a novel approach to developing modern urban-scale building energy stock data using geographic information systems and machine learning algorithms without necessarily requiring pre-supplied non-geometric metadata. The proposed framework integrates building footprint and height data to estimate gross floor areas, and matches each building to a pool of candidate records from ComStock or ResStock—filtered to the same county and ranked by geometric similarity—demonstrate a proof-of-concept case study in Chicago for predicting energy use intensity (EUI) using scalable datasets. The model achieved a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.08 kWh/m² and root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.84 kWh/m² under full metadata input for EUI prediction. With only location inputs, the model captured 69.2 % of EUI within predicted ranges. These results demonstrate the model’s potential to support early-stage urban planning, identify candidates for energy-efficient retrofits. By removing the dependency on detailed pre-surveys or extensive building metadata, the approach overcomes a key barrier in traditional urban-scale building energy modeling, illustrating a pathway toward broader and more cost-effective application, though further multi-city validation and improved treatment of pre-1925 buildings are needed.

Energy Use Intensity↗
DOE OSTI2026

Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.

AMI data↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bias Correction in Urban Building Energy Modeling for Chicago Using Machine Learning

Urban-scale building energy modeling (UBEM) holds promise for optimizing energy usage across extensive geographic regions. However, there is a recognized bias between simulated energy consumption and actual measured data. This study, based on building data from Chicago, delved into bias correction techniques for enhancing the accuracy of UBEM energy consumption estimates. Initially, the AutoBEM simulation yielded a normalized mean bias error (NMBE) of 1.1% and 51% of Coefficient of the Variation of the Root Mean Square Error (CVRMSE) after outlier exclusion. To address this, three bias correction methods were deployed: Average Mean Bias Error based bias correction, Quantile mapping bias correction, and Machine learning-based bias correction using Linear Regression and Random Forest models. Post-correction results exhibited marked improvement. The NMBE values were diminished to 0 for Average MBE-based, 0.36 for Quantile Mapping, and 0 for Machine Learning-based corrections. Concurrently, the CVRMSE values registered reductions from an original 51 to 50.8 for Quantile Mapping, and 38.56 for Machine Learning-based corrections, pointing towards the effectiveness of specific bias correction methods in refining the precision of UBEM energy predictions. Such accurate estimations are paramount for informed energy planning and urban policy-making.

Chowdhury, Shovan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automatic and rapid calibration of urban building energy models by learning from energy performance database

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is attracting increasing attention in the energy modeling filed. Unlike modeling a single building using detailed building systems information, UBEM generally uses limited high-level building stock data to infer default assumptions about building characteristics and operations. Additionally, this practice inherently brings uncertainty to UBEM. This study introduced a novel method of automatic and rapid calibration of UBEM based on the annual electricity and natural gas energy use data by learning the correlations between crucial model input parameters and the building energy use from the reference building models. A case study was presented to calibrate 72 large office buildings built before 1978 in San Francisco. Seventeen model parameters were selected and Monte Carlo sampling was used to create 1000 samples that reasonably represent the parameter space. Then 1000 simulations were performed for the reference building model to create an energy performance database. The results showed that by learning from the energy performance database, it took less than four simulation runs on average to calibrate a building model. After the calibration, the distributions of each parameter were obtained to replace their single predefined default values. For example, the default lighting power density of 21.39 W/m 2 was calibrated to be 7.50 W/m 2 on average. The case study successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of the novel calibration method for UBEM in the mild climate. The method will be further tested in future for other climate zones and other building types.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prototype-Wise Sensitivity Analysis of Urban Building Energy Simulation Surrogate Modeling Accuracy

Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) is an important reference for urban energy-related policymaking. Because of the significant impact of urban microclimates on the energy simulation, UBEM requires simulations of many microclimate-prototype pairs. Surrogate modeling is commonly used to reduce the cost of simulation computations. In UBEM surrogate modeling, it is important to determine the percentage of microclimates related to a prototype used for generating surrogate model training data. This study analyzes the prototype-wise variations and sensitivities of surrogate model estimation accuracy to the microclimate sampling ratios. The results of the study can help determine the number of simulations used for generating surrogate modeling data, avoid redundant simulations, and reduce the computational cost for UBEM surrogate modeling and its time.

Pan, Xiyu↗
DOE OSTI2024

CHUWD-H v1.0: a comprehensive historical hourly weather database for U.S. urban energy system modeling

Reliable and continuous meteorological data are crucial for modeling the responses of energy systems and their components to weather and climate conditions, particularly in densely populated urban areas. However, existing long-term datasets often suffer from spatial and temporal gaps and inconsistencies, posing great challenges for detailed urban energy system modeling and cross-city comparison under realistic weather conditions. Here we introduce the Historical Comprehensive Hourly Urban Weather Database (CHUWD-H) v1.0, a 23-year (1998-2020) gap-free and quality-controlled hourly weather dataset covering 550 weather station locations across all urban areas in the contiguous United States. CHUWD-H v1.0 synthesizes hourly weather observations from stations with outputs from a physics-based solar radiation model and a reanalysis dataset through a multi-step gap filling approach. A 10-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation suggests that the accuracy of this gap filling approach surpasses that of conventional gap filling methods. Designed primarily for urban energy system modeling, CHUWD-H v1.0 should also support historical urban meteorological and climate studies, including the validation and evaluation of urban climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling for enhancing the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands

There is a lack of an urban building energy modeling framework that considers the influence of surrounding buildings and local urban climate on building thermal performance. This can lead to inaccurate results since the thermal performance of individual buildings is heavily influenced by their surrounding built and climatic environment. This study establishes an interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling method to enhance the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands by coupling an urban physics model with a physics-based building energy model. Validation of the interactive coupling scheme uses field measurement datasets. Parametric simulation and analysis are conducted to understand the influence of the roof-to-canyon width ratio, canyon orientation, and ground vegetation fraction on canyon temperature, building energy consumption, and energy demand. Furthermore, the impacts of building energy model complexity (e.g., detailed vs. simplified building models) and coupling approaches on canyon temperature and building energy profiles are demonstrated using two case study buildings. In comparison with the one-way coupling approach, cooling energy consumption predicted with the dynamic two-way coupling approach varies by 3.5% and 0.5% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively, and peak cooling demand varies by 8.4% and 7.0% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively. Here this study also suggests that adopting a complex two-way coupling approach with environmental data exchange at various elevations is necessary for modeling tall buildings at the urban scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) tools: A state-of-the-art review of bottom-up physics-based approaches

Regulations corroborate the importance of retrofitting existing building stocks or constructing new energy-efficient districts. There is, thus, a need for modeling tools to evaluate energy scenarios to better manage and design cities, and numerous methodologies and tools have been developed. Among them, Urban Building Energy Modelling (UBEM) tools allow the energy simulation of buildings at large scales. Choosing an appropriate UBEM tool, balancing the level of complexity, accuracy, usability, and computing needs, remains a challenge for users. The review focuses on the main bottom-up physics-based UBEM tools, comparing them from a user-oriented perspective. Five categories are used: (i) the required inputs, (ii) the reported outputs, (iii) the exploited workflow, (iv) the applicability of each tool, and (v) the potential users. Moreover, a critical discussion is proposed, focusing on interests and trends in research and development. The results highlighted major differences between UBEM tools that must be considered to choose the proper one for an application. Finally, barriers of adoption of UBEM tools include the needs of a standardized ontology, a common three-dimensional city model, a standard procedure to collect data, and a standard set of test cases. This feeds into future development of UBEM tools to support cities’ sustainability goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

How close are urban scale building simulations to measured data? Examining bias derived from building metadata in urban building energy modeling

Residential and commercial buildings in the United States accounted for 40% of total energy in 2020. Building energy modeling (BEM) is a useful tool that allows individuals, researchers, companies, or utilities to save energy by optimizing buildings through estimation of building technology savings and performance projection of building energy under various environmental conditions. Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) expands the scope beyond individual buildings to the buildings in a neighborhood, city, utility and more. Yet there is a knowledge gap in the literature as to how these models compare to measured data on an individual and aggregated basis. As UBEM data and methods continue to develop, it is important to consider the accuracy, bias, and limitations of the models. Here, nation-scale data and UBEM software suite named Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) was used to model 50,843 buildings in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The uncalibrated simulation results were compared to aggregated 15-minute electricity data for the year 2019 with visualizations highlighting sources of bias in building data and the AutoBEM framework while considering how they relate to other UBEM methods. Estimation of building type and year of constructions are found to be the major sources of bias. Accounting for the amount of conditioned area per building significantly improves the overall fit of the simulated energy use intensity. it was found that inherent variation in building energy use contributes to R 2 values between 0.008 and 0.095 across building types but slope values near 1 for the total number of buildings. This indicates the need for building aggregation for representative building energy modeling with data sources available at an urban scale while illustrating the need for additional individual building data and model improvement beyond the originally produced UBEM models for individual building analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Urban-scale Energy Modeling: Scaling Beyond Tax Assessor Data

In an attempt to attain building-specific characteristics for urban-scale building energy models, county-specific tax assessors’ data is often an initial data source. This data source can contain valuable information such as year built, area, height, HVAC type, and roof/wall descriptions.We will show examples of 2,000 fields from Hamilton County in Tennessee with examples of many fields which are not relevant to urban-scale building energy modeling, are incorrect compared to other data sources, and highlight some lessons learned working with such a data source.There are currently 3,142 counties in the United States, each with their own data format, field definitions, and data access policy. As urban-scale involves city-scale analysis potentially covering multiple counties and matures toward state- or nation-scale analysis, county-by-county approaches are not scalable. While there are efforts to unify these datasets, there is an increasing proliferation of data and algorithms that can cover wider areas and provide more accurate inputs for urban-scale models. This paper summarizes computer vision of imagery, cartographic layers, building type assessment, and model generation used to achieve scalable detection and analysis of buildings.

New, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum computing approach for building surface sunlit in urban-scale energy modeling

Solar shadow calculations are needed in building energy modeling and performance simulation of PV systems installed on roofs or facades of buildings. We present a quantum computing approach for calculation of building surface sunlit fractions by recasting solar visibility as a binary optimization problem solved by quantum annealing. Each triangulated surface centroid is encoded as a binary qubit indicating sunlit or shaded status. Geometric visibility constraints are derived from the Möller-Trumbore intersection algorithm and converted into a constrained quadratic binary model compatible with contemporary quantum annealers. The coefficients were embedded to D-Wave quantum computer. To demonstrate feasibility, we conducted a case study in San Francisco for a target building with 52 triangles and roughly 2700 nearby triangles within 50 m evaluated at representative winter and summer solar positions. The results demonstrated that quantum annealing can reliably calculate and distinguish sunlit from shaded surfaces. Quantum samples achieved average accuracy exceeding 92.4 %, with the aggregate surface-level agreement approaching 99.9 %. The outputs of quantum computers agreed closely with classical algorithms, indicating practical feasibility and promising scalability. Finally, the hourly sunlit fractions of building surfaces can be obtained for urban energy modelling. This is the first study to apply quantum computing to the solar shadow and building surface sunlit calculation. It introduces a new paradigm that differs fundamentally from traditional approaches.

Deng, Zhipeng↗
DOE OSTI2025

Informing electrification strategies of residential neighborhoods with urban building energy modeling

Electrifying end uses is a key strategy to reducing GHG emissions in buildings. However, it may increase peak electricity demand that triggers the need to upgrade the existing power distribution system, leading to delays in electrification and needs of significant investment. There is also concern that building electrification may cause an increase of energy costs, leading to further energy burden for low-income communities. This study uses the urban scale building modeling tool CityBES to assess the electrification impacts of more than 43,000 residential buildings in a neighborhood of Portland, Oregon, USA. Energy efficiency upgrades were investigated on their potential to mitigate the increase of peak electricity demand and energy burden. Simulation results from the calibrated EnergyPlus models show that electrification with heat pumps for space heating and cooling as well as for domestic water heating can reduce CO2e emissions by 38%, but increase peak electricity demand by about 9% from the baseline building stock. Combining electrification measures and energy efficiency upgrades can reduce CO2e emissions by 48% while reducing peak electricity demand by 6% and saving the median household energy costs by 28%. City and utility decision makers should consider integrating energy efficiency upgrades with electrification measures as an effective residential building electrification strategy, which significantly reduces carbon emissions, caps or even decreases peak demand while reducing energy burden of residents.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Empirical Validation of UBEM: An Assessment of Bias in Urban Building Energy Modeling for Chicago

Residential and commercial buildings currently account for 30% of total global final energy consumption. Urban-scale building energy modeling (UBEM) can enable scalable investments and unlock building improvements by quantifying energy, demand, emissions, and cost reductions of specific measures or packages for building-specific technologies in large geographic regions. While the sophistication of UBEM data sources and technologies have increased dramatically in the past decade, there remains a knowledge gap for empirical validation and sources of bias between building-specific energy models and measured data at varying geographic scales.As UBEM continues to develop, systemic analysis of accuracy, bias, and limitations of the resulting models is necessary to inform best practices and move toward standardization. These are characterized for the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software suite with an initial case study involving metered electricity consumption data from 247,188 buildings in Chicago, Illinois, USA - averaged across years 2019-2021 - compared to the following datasets: (1) the AutoBEM-generated nation-scale Model America version 2 (MAv2) data for 596,064 buildings, (2) tax assessor data for 579,829 buildings, (3) tax assessor data filled with MAv2, and (4) 102 representative dynamic archetypes. The accuracy is reported for every building type and vintage combination, along with multiple sources of bias for unique building descriptors. The AutoBEM simulation workflow produced energy consumption estimates that closely match aggregated metered electricity consumption data for different types of buildings constructed during various time periods at the city scale - with initial normalized mean bias error of 10.9%, and 1.1% after removing outliers. Contribution of statistically significant factors including building type, land use, age, and size to variance in UBEM bias is quantified.

Garg, Ankur↗