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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Influence of Local Water Vapor Analysis Uncertainty on Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Hurricane Irma (2017) as a Testbed

Abstract Tropical cyclone formation is known to require abundant water vapor in the lower to middle troposphere within the incipient disturbance. In this study, we assess the impacts of local water vapor analysis uncertainty on the predictability of the formation of Hurricane Irma (2017). To this end, we reduce the magnitude of the incipient disturbance’s water vapor perturbations obtained from an ensemble-based data assimilation system that constrained moisture by assimilating all-sky infrared and microwave radiances. Five-day ensemble forecasts are initialized two days before genesis using each set of modified analysis perturbations. Growth of convective differences and intensity uncertainty are evaluated for each ensemble forecast. We observe that when initializing an ensemble forecast with only moisture uncertainty within the incipient disturbance, the resulting intensity uncertainty at every lead time exceeds half that of an ensemble containing initial perturbations to all variables throughout the domain. Although ensembles with different initial moisture uncertainty amplitudes reveal a similar pathway to genesis, uncertainty in genesis timing varies substantially across ensembles since moister members exhibit earlier spinup of the low-level vortex. These differences in genesis timing are traced back to the first 6–12 h of integration, when differences in the position and intensity of mesoscale convective systems across ensemble members develop more quickly with greater initial moisture uncertainty. In addition, the rapid growth of intensity uncertainty may be greatly modulated by the diurnal cycle. Ultimately, this study underscores the importance of targeting the incipient disturbance with high spatiotemporal water vapor observations for ingestion into data assimilation systems. Significance Statement Hurricanes form from clusters of thunderstorms that organize into a coherent system. One of the key ingredients for the formation process is an abundance of moisture. In this study, we test the sensitivity of hurricane formation to the initial moisture content in the vicinity of the cluster of thunderstorms that would become Hurricane Irma (2017). To do so, we initialize sets of forecasts each having a different variability of initial moisture content within the embryonic disturbance. Our results show that the predictability of hurricane formation is highly dependent on the uncertainty of the moisture content within the initial disturbance. Consequently, more high-quality observations of the moisture within the precursor disturbances to hurricanes are expected to improve forecasts of their formation.

Hartman, Christopher M.↗

Health Hazards of Exposures to Radioiodine

Iodine is a chemical element with atomic number 53. Iodine-127 is stable (non-radioactive) and commonly found in nature. Elemental iodine is a purple-colored solid at room temperature and pressure, but spontaneously sublimates (turns into vapor). Iodine is an essential element for life, and is required for proper functioning of the thyroid. Iodine is present in many foods, and is readily absorbed by the body and concentrated in the thyroid gland. A fraction of iodine ingested or inhaled is rapidly removed by the kidneys. The rest of the inhaled or ingested iodine is absorbed the by thyroid and retained for many months. Iodine has a biological half-life of approximately 120 days in health individuals. The biological half-life can be shorter in individuals with hyperthyroidism, and longer in individuals with hypothyroidism. Iodine has a number of radioactive isotopes, most of which have relatively short half-lives (days or weeks). Short half-life iodine isotopes are useful for a variety of medical applications, including imaging and cancer therapy. For example, Iodine-123 (half-life 13 hours) is commonly used for medical imaging of the thyroid, while iodine-131 (half-life 8 days) is used for suppressing thyroid function in individuals with hyperthyroidism or ablating (killing) thyroid cells to treat thyroid cancer. Iodine-125 (half-life 59 days) is produced in nuclear reactors, and has medical uses. Although iodine-125 can be used for thyroid imaging, Iodine-123 is more commonly used for that purpose because of its shorter half-life and higher-energy emissions. Iodine-125 is more commonly used for cancer treatment, and can be processed into small metal pellets (seeds) inserted directly into a tumor. Iodine-125 emits low-energy x-rays which can kill tumor cells and generally cannot escape the tumor, sparing other tissues. Medical iodine for imaging or treatment is typically administered orally in the form a pill or liquid solution. A typical adult thyroid scan using iodine-123 involves having the patient swallow between one and four 0.1 millicuries pills, with the exact dose dependent on the patient’s weight. This results in a whole-body committed effective dose of 80 – 320 mrem, and a thyroid equivalent dose of 1443 – 5772 mrem. Note that the whole-body effective dose relates to the overall cancer risk, while the larger equivalent dose to the thyroid only indicates that most of this risk is the result of exposure to the thyroid. These doses are considered safe, although the procedure is not recommended for pregnant or breastfeeding women. In contrast, the quantities of iodine-131 used for treatment of hyperthyroidism and thyroid cancers are much higher. For treatment of hyperthyroidism, 4 – 10 millicuries are administered, while for thyroid cancer the administration can range from 50 – 150 millicuries of I-131. In addition to medical exposures, large populations were exposed to radioiodine as result of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan, and the Chernobyl nuclear accident. These populations have been carefully followed for many years to assess the effect of their radiation exposures on cancer risk. As a result, a great deal is known about the cancer risks associated with radioiodine exposure. Because iodine is concentrated in the thyroid, the principal risk of exposure to radioiodine is thyroid cancer. Children have the highest risk of thyroid cancer after exposure to radioactive iodine. According to a large study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors, an effective dose of one Sievert (100,000 mrem) has been observed to increase the risk of thyroid cancer by a factor of 9.5 in children aged zero to nine years old, by a factor of 3 in children aged 10 to 19 years old, and by barely detectable amounts in adults. Another way of quantifying the risk from radioiodine exposure is from risk coefficients, which provide the risk per unit intake of radionuclides in terms of both morbidity (any cancer) and mortality (death). Both morbidity (risk of cancer) and mortality (death) risks are shown in the table below. Note that because thyroid cancer is almost never fatal, the morbidity coefficients are much larger than the mortality coefficients.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

A network of soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, net radiation, ground heat flux and ground water for Chicago, Illinois

This dataset contains environmental monitoring data collected using solar-powered Multi-Function Research (MFR) Long Range Wide Area (LoRaWAN)-enabled nodes at 11 sites in Chicago, Illinois, as part of the DOE Urban Integrated Field Lab CROCUS project. The MFR node system consists of an Input/Output Digital Input Module (IB8) interface box (ICT International) providing wired connections for environmental sensors and an MFR-Node-L data logger that manages power, data processing, and LoRaWAN communication. The wireless data are ingested via Sage network (https://sagecontinuum.org/) nodes that contain LoRaWAN antennae. Measurements were collected from 11 MFR nodes deployed across Chicago State University (CSU), Northeastern Illinois University (NEIU), Northwestern University (NU), University of Illinois Chicago (UIC), West Woodlawn "Blacks in Green" (BIG), and Indian Boundary Prairies (IBP). Each MFR node supports a consistent suite of sensors measuring atmospheric, soil, and hydrological variables. Atmospheric measurements include 2m air temperature (°C), 2m vapor pressure deficit (kPa), and 2m shortwave/longwave radiation (incoming and outgoing, W/m²) measured using ATH-VPD and Apogee SN500 sensors. Soil measurements include volumetric water content (VWC, %) and temperature (°C) at four depths (15, 30, 45, and 60 cm below surface) using Meter Teros54 sensors, and heat flux (W/m²) at 10 cm depth using Huske HFP01-05 sensors. At selected locations, Meter Hydros21 sensors measure groundwater depth (mm), specific conductivity (dS/m), and temperature (°C). The dataset includes timestamps, site identifiers with location names, device IDs, Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates, variable names with units, measurement depths, values, sensor names, and Sage node identifiers. All timestamps are in local Chicago time (CDT/CST). Quality control flags are provided using a 6-bit binary system indicating physical range violations, step spikes, 24-hour flat-line conditions, 6-hour jitter, 7-day ultra-low variance, and persistent high offset. Data is provided in CSV and CF-compliant NetCDF formats. This dataset is part of a larger collection of CROCUS environmental monitoring data, including linked datasets from Air Quality Transmitter (AQT) sensors, Weather Transmitter (WXT) sensors, and Sap Flow Meter (SFM1x) sensors.

Chicago↗

Data and scripts from: “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”

This data package includes data and scripts from the manuscript “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”.The study addressed common challenges faced in environmental sensing and modeling, including uncertain input data, missing sensor observations, and high-dimensional datasets with interrelated but redundant variables. Point-scaled meteorological and soil sensor observations were perturbed with noises and missing values, and denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural networks were developed to reconstruct the perturbed data and further predict evapotranspiration. This study concluded that (1) the reconstruction quality of each variable depends on its cross-correlation and alignment to the underlying data structure, (2) uncertainties from the models were overall stronger than those from the data corruption, and (3) there was a tradeoff between reducing bias and reducing variance when evaluating the uncertainty of the machine learning models.This package includes:(1) Four ipython scripts (.ipynb): “DAE_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates DAE neural networks, “DAE_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from the trained DAE models, “ET_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates ET prediction neural networks, and “ET_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from trained ET models.(2) One python file (.py): “methods.py” includes all user-defined functions and python codes used in the ipython scripts.(3) A “sub_models” folder that includes five trained DAE neural networks (in pytorch format, .pt), which could be used to ingest input data before being fed to the downstream ET models in ‘ET_train.ipynb” or ‘ET_predict.ipynb’.(4) Two data files (.csv). Daily meteorological, vegetation, and soil data is in “df_data.csv”, where “df_meta.csv” contains the location and time information of “df_data.csv”. Each row (index) in “df_meta.csv” corresponds to each row in “df_data.csv”. These data files are formatted to follow the data structure requirements and be directly used in the ipython scripts, and they have been shuffled chronologically to train machine learning models. The meteorological and soil data was collected using point sensors between 2019-2023 at(4.a) Three shrub-dominated field sites in East River, Colorado (named “ph1”, “ph2” and “sg5” in “df_meta.csv”, where “ph1” and “ph2” were located at PumpHouse Hillslopes, and “sg5” was at Snodgrass Mountain meadow) and(4.b) One outdoor, mesoscale, and herbaceous-dominated experiment in Berkeley, California (named “tb” in “df_meta.csv”, short for Smartsoils Testbed at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab).- See "df_data_dd.csv" and "df_meta_dd.csv" for variable descriptions and the Methods section for additional data processing steps. See "flmd.csv" and "README.txt" for brief file descriptions.- All ipython scripts and python files are written in and require PYTHON language software.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗