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Results for “Variable selection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Automatic variable selection in ecological niche modeling: A case study using Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii)

MERRA/Max provides a feature selection approach to dimensionality reduction that enables direct use of global climate model outputs in ecological niche modeling. The system accomplishes this reduction through a Monte Carlo optimization in which many independent MaxEnt runs, operating on a species occurrence file and a small set of randomly selected variables in a large collection of variables, converge on an estimate of the top contributing predictors in the larger collection. These top predictors can be viewed as potential candidates in the variable selection step of the ecological niche modeling process. MERRA/Max’s Monte Carlo algorithm operates on files stored in the underlying filesystem, making it scalable to large data sets. Its software components can run as parallel processes in a high-performance cloud computing environment to yield near real-time performance. In tests using Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii) as the target species, MERRA/Max selected a set of predictors from Worldclim’s Bioclim collection of 19 environmental variables that have been shown to be important determinants of the species’ bioclimatic niche. It also selected biologically and ecologically plausible predictors from a more diverse set of 86 environmental variables derived from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, an output product of the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling system. We believe these results point to a technological approach that could expand the use global climate model outputs in ecological niche modeling, foster exploratory experimentation with otherwise difficult-to-use climate data sets, streamline the modeling process, and, eventually, enable automated bioclimatic modeling as a practical, readily accessible, low-cost, commercial cloud service.

John L. Schnase↗
DOE OSTI2020

Consistency-Enhanced Evolution for Variable Selection Can Identify Key Chemical Information from Spectroscopic Data

In the last few decades, spectroscopic techniques such as near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy have gained wide applications in several industries, such as the pharmaceutical, agricultural, oil, and gas industries. As a result, various soft sensors have been developed to predict sample properties from spectroscopic readings. Because the spectroscopic readings at different wavelengths, especially at the adjacent wavelengths, are highly correlated, it has been shown that variable selection could significantly improve a soft sensor’s prediction performance while reducing the model complexity. To improve the prediction performance, most variable selection methods focus on identifying the variables (i.e., wavelengths or wavelength segments) that are strongly correlated with the dependent variable. Although many successful applications have been reported, these variable selection methods do have their limitations. Specifically, the selected wavelengths sometimes show little connection to the chemical bounds or functional groups presenting in the sample. In addition, the selected variables can be quite sensitive to the choice of the training samples. In this work, we address these limitations from a different perspective: if a variable selection algorithm can identify the truly relevant input variables, it should consistently identify the same subset of variables regardless of the choice of the training samples. Therefore, we propose a variable selection method that aims to improve the consistency of variable selection resulting from different training samples. Furthermore, the new algorithm is termed consistency-enhanced evolution for variable selection (CEEVS). To demonstrate the performance and robustness of CEEVS, we compare the proposed method with three representative variable selection methods using five published NIR data sets. These case studies clearly demonstrate that by improving the variable selection consistency, we can not only achieve improved prediction performance, but also identify key chemical information from spectroscopic data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1982

Curve fitting and modeling with splines using statistical variable selection techniques

The successful application of statistical variable selection techniques to fit splines is demonstrated. Major emphasis is given to knot selection, but order determination is also discussed. Two FORTRAN backward elimination programs, using the B-spline basis, were developed. The program for knot elimination is compared in detail with two other spline-fitting methods and several statistical software packages. An example is also given for the two-variable case using a tensor product basis, with a theoretical discussion of the difficulties of their use.

Smith, P. L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

O Corona, where art thou? eROSITA’s view of UV-optical-IR variability-selected massive black holes in low-mass galaxies

Finding massive black holes (MBHs,M BH ≈ 10 4 –10 7 M ⊙ ) in the nuclei of low-mass galaxies $\left( {{M_*}\mathop {\mathop < \limits_ }\limits_ {{10}^{10}}{M_ \odot }} \right)$ is crucial to constrain seeding and growth of black holes over cosmic time, but it is particularly challenging due to their low accretion luminosities. Variability selection via long-term photometric ultraviolet, optical, or infrared (UVOIR) light curves has proved effective and identifies lower-Eddington ratios compared to broad and narrow optical spectral lines searches. In the inefficient accretion regime, X-ray and radio searches are effective, but they have been limited to small samples. Therefore, differences between selection techniques have remained uncertain. Here, we present the first large systematic investigation of the X-ray properties of a sample of known MBH candidates in dwarf galaxies. We extracted X-ray photometry and spectra of a sample of ~200 UVOIR variability-selected MBHs and significantly detected 17 of them in the deepest available SRG/eROSITA image, of which four are newly discovered X-ray sources and two are new secure MBHs. This implies that tens to hundreds of LSST MBHs will have SRG/eROSITA counterparts, depending on the seeding model adopted. Surprisingly, the stacked X-ray images of the many non-detected MBHs are incompatible with standard disk-corona relations, typical of active galactic nuclei, inferred from both the optical and radio fluxes. They are instead compatible with the X-ray emission predicted for normal galaxies. After careful consideration of potential biases, we identified that this X-ray weakness needs a physical origin. A possibility is that a canonical X-ray corona might be lacking in the majority of this population of UVOIR-variability selected low-mass galaxies or that unusual accretion modes and spectral energy distributions are in place for MBHs in dwarf galaxies. This result reveals the potential for severe biases in occupation fractions derived from data from only one waveband combined with SEDs and scaling relations of more massive black holes and galaxies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forward variable selection enables fast and accurate dynamic system identification with Karhunen-Loève decomposed Gaussian processes

A promising approach for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs) is the Karhunen-Loève (KL) decomposition, in which the GP kernel is represented by a set of basis functions which are the eigenfunctions of the kernel operator. Such decomposed kernels have the potential to be very fast, and do not depend on the selection of a reduced set of inducing points. However KL decompositions lead to high dimensionality, and variable selection thus becomes paramount. This paper reports a new method of forward variable selection, enabled by the ordered nature of the basis functions in the KL expansion of the Bayesian Smoothing Spline ANOVA kernel (BSS-ANOVA), coupled with fast Gibbs sampling in a fully Bayesian approach. It quickly and effectively limits the number of terms, yielding a method with competitive accuracies, training and inference times for tabular datasets of low feature set dimensionality. Theoretical computational complexities are O ( N P 2 ) in training and O ( P ) per point in inference, where N is the number of instances and P the number of expansion terms. The inference speed and accuracy makes the method especially useful for dynamic systems identification, by modeling the dynamics in the tangent space as a static problem, then integrating the learned dynamics using a high-order scheme. The methods are demonstrated on two dynamic datasets: a ‘Susceptible, Infected, Recovered’ (SIR) toy problem, along with the experimental ‘Cascaded Tanks’ benchmark dataset. Comparisons on the static prediction of time derivatives are made with a random forest (RF), a residual neural network (ResNet), and the Orthogonal Additive Kernel (OAK) inducing points scalable GP, while for the timeseries prediction comparisons are made with LSTM and GRU recurrent neural networks (RNNs) along with the SINDy package.

Hayes, Kyle↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variability-selected Intermediate-mass Black Hole Candidates in Dwarf Galaxies from ZTF and WISE

While it is difficult to observe the first black hole seeds in the early universe, we can study intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) in local dwarf galaxies for clues about their origins. In this paper we present a sample of variability-selected active galactic nuclei (AGN) in dwarf galaxies using optical photometry from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and forward-modeled mid-IR photometry of time-resolved Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) co-added images. We found that 44 out of 25,714 dwarf galaxies had optically variable AGN candidates and 148 out of 79,879 dwarf galaxies had mid-IR variable AGN candidates, corresponding to active fractions of 0.17% ± 0.03% and 0.19% ± 0.02%, respectively. We found that spectroscopic approaches to AGN identification would have missed 81% of our ZTF IMBH candidates and 69% of our WISE IMBH candidates. Only nine candidates have been detected previously in radio, X-ray, and variability searches for dwarf galaxy AGN. The ZTF and WISE dwarf galaxy AGN with broad Balmer lines have virial masses of 10 5 M ⊙ < M BH < 10 7 M ⊙ , but for the rest of the sample, BH masses predicted from host galaxy mass range between 10 5.2 M ⊙ < M BH < 10 7.25 M ⊙ . We found that only 5 of 152 previously reported variability-selected AGN candidates from the Palomar Transient Factory in common with our parent sample were variable in ZTF. We also determined a nuclear supernova fraction of 0.05% ± 0.01% yr -1 for dwarf galaxies in ZTF. Our ZTF and WISE IMBH candidates show the promise of variability searches for the discovery of otherwise hidden low-mass AGN.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Fitting multidimensional splines using statistical variable selection techniques

This report demonstrates the successful application of statistical variable selection techniques to fit splines. Major emphasis is given to knot selection, but order determination is also discussed. Two FORTRAN backward elimination programs using the B-spline basis were developed, and the one for knot elimination is compared in detail with two other spline-fitting methods and several statistical software packages. An example is also given for the two-variable case using a tensor product basis, with a theoretical discussion of the difficulties of their use.

Smith, P. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic logistic regression and variable selection: Forecasting and contextualizing civil unrest

Civil unrest can range from peaceful protest to violent furor, and researchers are working to monitor, forecast, and assess such events to allocate resources better. Twitter has become a real-time data source for forecasting civil unrest because millions of people use the platform as a social outlet. Additionally, daily word counts are used as model features, and predictive terms contextualize the reasons for the protest. To forecast civil unrest and infer the reasons for the protest, we consider the problem of Bayesian variable selection for the dynamic logistic regression model and propose using penalized credible regions to select parameters of the updated state vector. This method avoids the need for shrinkage priors, is scalable to high-dimensional dynamic data, and allows the importance of variables to vary in time as new information becomes available. A substantial improvement in both precision and F1-score using this approach is demonstrated through simulation. Finally, we apply the proposed model fitting and variable selection methodology to the problem of forecasting civil unrest in Latin America. Our dynamic logistic regression approach shows improved accuracy compared to the static approach currently used in event prediction and feature selection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2013

Calibration Variable Selection and Natural Zero Determination for Semispan and Canard Balances

Independent calibration variables for the characterization of semispan and canard wind tunnel balances are discussed. It is shown that the variable selection for a semispan balance is determined by the location of the resultant normal and axial forces that act on the balance. These two forces are the first and second calibration variable. The pitching moment becomes the third calibration variable after the normal and axial forces are shifted to the pitch axis of the balance. Two geometric distances, i.e., the rolling and yawing moment arms, are the fourth and fifth calibration variable. They are traditionally substituted by corresponding moments to simplify the use of calibration data during a wind tunnel test. A canard balance is related to a semispan balance. It also only measures loads on one half of a lifting surface. However, the axial force and yawing moment are of no interest to users of a canard balance. Therefore, its calibration variable set is reduced to the normal force, pitching moment, and rolling moment. The combined load diagrams of the rolling and yawing moment for a semispan balance are discussed. They may be used to illustrate connections between the wind tunnel model geometry, the test section size, and the calibration load schedule. Then, methods are reviewed that may be used to obtain the natural zeros of a semispan or canard balance. In addition, characteristics of three semispan balance calibration rigs are discussed. Finally, basic requirements for a full characterization of a semispan balance are reviewed.

Ulbrich, Norbert M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decision Tree for Variable Selection vs. Impact on Durability for Biomass and Biochar Burial Pathways [Slides]

Quantifying durability for lower-TRL BiCRS pathways has been challenging as limited data are available from real-world projects and long-term experiments, resulting in an overall lack of scientific consensus. We develop a decision tree that aims to summarize the current scientific understanding and state-of-the-art project experience. The decision tree can be used to (1) guide the selection of key variables and evaluate their relative impact on durability, (2) identify data and knowledge gaps for future research.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Updates to Relevance Vector Machine: Multiclass Classification, Variable Selection, and Proof-of-Concept Application to Safeguards Fresh Fuel Verification using List-Mode Neutron Collar Data

To expand the capabilities of safeguards authorities to verify the integrity of fresh fuel assemblies, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has retrofit the existing electronics of the JCC-71 uranium neutron coincidence collar, which contains 18 3 He neutron detectors and an external 241 AmLi(α, n) neutron interrogation source arranged to surround a fresh nuclear fuel assembly. The new electronics system allows analysts to record list-mode neutron multiplicity data in addition to the singles and doubles rates that are currently measured. Based on previous proof-of-concept research, analysis of these new data will identify off-normal fuel configurations in an assembly and characterize or localize the specific partial fuel defects. The purpose of this report it to document the analysis algorithm development and then to demonstrate its capability for the safeguards verification of fresh fuel assemblies using list mode neutron collar data. To analyze the complex list-mode data collected with the upgraded uranium neutron collar, multivariate classification algorithms are being developed using a novel classification method, the relevance vector machine. This approach may be applied to multiclass problems to estimate the probability that test data belongs to one of many possible classes of data. In addition, our method identifies the most useful variables/channels for making predictions, which illuminates the basis for the model’s predictions, and this interpretability is largely unique among data analytics methods. Variable selection occurs during model training and parameter tuning and does not need any external hyperparameter tuning routines. Finally, we apply the modified relevance vector machine to a simulated dataset of list-mode neutron collar data generated with the radiation transport code MCNP. The method can correctly identify off-normal fuel configurations, categorize the data according to four fuel defect scenarios, and rank the channels in the data according to prediction utility. For nuclear safeguards applications, it is concluded that this method has the potential to increase the sensitivity and reliability to detect missing fuel rods from a standard 17 x 17 Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) fresh fuel assembly. Within this analysis, “off-normal” (i.e., missing fuel rods) were correctly classified in 17 simulated test scenarios with one quarter (25%) of the fresh fuel rods missing using a training data set of 58 simulated measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiobjective Optimal Controlled Variable Selection for a Gas Turbine–Solid Oxide Fuel Cell System Using a Multiagent Optimization Platform

Hybrid gas turbine–fuel cell systems have immense potential for high efficiency in electrical power generation with cleaner emissions compared with fossil-fueled power generation. We report a systematic controlled variable (CV) selection method is deployed for a hybrid gas turbine–fuel cell system in the HyPer (hybrid performance) facility at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) for maximizing its economic and control performance. A three-stage approach is used for the CV selection comprising a priori analysis, multiobjective optimization, and a posteriori analysis. The a priori analysis helps to screen off several candidate CVs, thus reducing the size of the combinatorial optimization problem for multiobjective CV selection. For optimal CV selection, a transfer function model of the HyPer facility is identified. By considering several candidate models, the final transfer function model is selected using Akaike’s Final Prediction Error criterion. Experimental data from the HyPer facility are used to estimate the noise in the measurement data. For solving the combinatorial multiobjective optimization problem for CV selection, a multiagent optimization platform comprising simulated annealing, genetic algorithm, and efficient ant colony optimization algorithms is used. Pareto-optimal CV sets exhibit a high trade-off between the economic and control objective. The a posteriori analysis is undertaken for several top Pareto-optimal CV sets. An optimal CV set is selected that shows the best compromise between process economics and controllability under both nominal and off-design conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

VarIabiLity seLection of AstrophysIcal sources iN PTF (VILLAIN): I. Structure function fits to 71 million objects

Light-curve variability is well-suited to characterizing objects in surveys with high cadence and a long baseline. This is especially relevant in view of the large datasets to be produced by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We aim to determine variability parameters for objects in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) and explore differences between quasars (QSOs), stars, and galaxies. We relate variability and colour information in preparation for future surveys. We fit joint likelihoods to structure functions (SFs) of 71 million PTF light curves with a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. For each object, we assume a power-law SF and extract two parameters: the amplitude on timescales of one year, A, and a power-law index, γ. With these parameters and colours in the optical (Pan-STARRS1) and mid-infrared (WISE), we identify regions of parameter space dominated by different types of spectroscopically confirmed objects from SDSS. Candidate QSOs, stars, and galaxies are selected to show their parameter distributions. QSOs show high-amplitude variations in the R band, and the highest γ values. Galaxies have a broader range of amplitudes and their variability shows relatively little dependency on timescale. With variability and colours, we achieve a photometric selection purity of 99.3% for QSOs. Even though hard cuts in monochromatic variability alone are not as effective as seven-band magnitude cuts, variability is useful in characterizing object subclasses. Through variability, we also find QSOs that were erroneously classified as stars in the SDSS. We discuss perspectives and computational solutions in view of the upcoming LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Variability Selected Low-Luminosity Active Galactic Nuclei in the 4 Ms Chandra Deep Field-South

The 4 Ms Chandra Deep Field-South (CDF-S) and other deep X-ray surveys have been highly effective at selecting active galactic nuclei (AGN). However, cosmologically distant low-luminosity AGN (LLAGN) have remained a challenge to identify due to significant contribution from the host galaxy. We identify long-term X ray variability (approx. month years, observed frame) in 20 of 92 CDF-S galaxies spanning redshifts approx equals 00.8 - 1.02 that do not meet other AGN selection criteria. We show that the observed variability cannot be explained by X-ray binary populations or ultraluminous X-ray sources, so the variability is most likely caused by accretion onto a supermassive black hole. The variable galaxies are not heavily obscured in general, with a stacked effective power-law photon index of Gamma(sub Stack) approx equals 1.93 +/- 0.13, and arc therefore likely LLAGN. The LLAGN tend to lie it factor of approx equal 6-89 below the extrapolated linear variability-luminosity relation measured for luminous AGN. This may he explained by their lower accretion rates. Variability-independent black-hole mass and accretion-rate estimates for variable galaxies show that they sample a significantly different black hole mass-accretion-rate space, with masses a factor of 2.4 lower and accretion rates a factor of 22.5 lower than variable luminous AGNs at the same redshift. We find that an empirical model based on a universal broken power-law power spectral density function, where the break frequency depends on SMBH mass and accretion rate, roughly reproduces the shape, but not the normalization, of the variability-luminosity trends measured for variable galaxies and more luminous AGNs.

Young, M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chemical recycling of polymer composites induced by selective variable frequency microwave heating

Abstract The application of variable frequency microwave (VFM) heating to achieve rapid thermal depolymerization of polymer composites is reported for the first time. The thermal and chemical influence of composite additives on polymer decomposition has been studied for a set of chemically recyclable polymers, including polyphthalaldehyde, polypropylene carbonate, two polyhydroxyalkanoates, and nylon 6. Carbon‐based additives, specifically nanocarbon particles, were used as effective microwave absorbers to controllably degrade the surrounding polymer matrix into valuable, monomeric compounds. Depolymerization and byproduct confirmation were quantified by gel permeation chromatography and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Synergistic effects can be leveraged from pre‐treating composite samples to further reduce the total microwave energy required to depolymerize composite samples. This study establishes the use of VFM heating for chemical recycling of polymer composites that can be leveraged toward a plastic circular economy.

Polymer Science↗