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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript analyzing ELM-FATES parameter sensitivity under pre-fire and postfire scenarios using machine learning

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Fire Severity-Dependent Shifts in Vegetation Parameter Sensitivity: A Pre- and Post-Fire Analysis Using ELM-FATES and Explainable AI” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Zahura et al. 2026). The study examines vegetation physiological parameters controlling pre-fire and post-fire vegetation dynamics. To support this analysis, 73 vegetation parameters in Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (Fisher et al., 2018) , which is coupled with E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) land model (ELM, ELM-FATES), were perturbed using a Sobol sequence to generate 1,024 ensemble members for two plant functional types: needleleaf evergreen extratropical trees (NEET) and C3 grass. Simulations were conducted for the pre-fire period (2016) and post-fire period (2018–2023). Burn severity was represented by modifying the Nesterov index in FATES to 75,000, 150,000, and 300,000 for low, moderate, and high severity, respectively. A no-fire scenario was also included. Simulations were performed for 16 grid cells in the American River Watershed across different burn severities and plant functional types. XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models were trained using the parameter ensembles and ELM-FATES-simulated outputs, including leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP), aboveground biomass, vegetation evaporation, transpiration, and soil evaporation. Models were trained separately for each year and burn severity, followed by SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to identify changes in dominant parameters after fire disturbance. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. The data package contains the ELM-FATES simulation data. The scripts and data related to the analysis will be added later. The inputs and outputs from ELM-FATES are inside the “FATES” folder. “FATES_domain_surface” contains the domain and surface netcdfs that were used to run ELM-FATES in the study area. “FATES_parameters” contains the 1024 ensembles that were generated using Sobol sequence. “FATES_outputs” folder contains ELM-FATES simulated variables. All files are .csv and .nc (NetCDF).

Aboveground biomass↗
DOE OSTI2026

Shifts in Evapotranspiration Components During Heatwaves Alter Surface Cooling

Heatwave events significantly alter ecosystem water and energy balance and are often accompanied by extreme surface temperatures. Understanding how surface temperatures during such events are regulated by soil evaporation (E) and vegetation transpiration (T) remains limited due to challenges in partitioning total evapotranspiration (ET). Here, high-frequency turbulence methods are used to partition observed ET at 32 National Ecological Observatory Network sites across the contiguous United States. Heatwaves were defined as at least three consecutive days with daily maximum air temperature exceeding the site-specific 90th percentile of the 2019–2021 record. Across 268 identified events, the T/ET ratio decreased by 32% ± 16% relative to the non-heatwave baseline of 0.65, with greater reductions at lower biomass sites. The T/ET ratio was typically suppressed below non-heatwave conditions during the early and middle stages of the heatwave (first two-thirds of event duration), but was on average higher than non-heatwave baseline levels during late stages (final third) due to extremely low soil evaporation. Of the studied heatwaves, 71% of these had surface temperatures above 38°C in their late stage; however, heatwaves sustaining higher evaporation fluxes (upper tertile of observed fluxes) during the late stage were associated with relative surface temperature anomalies that were on average 45% lower than those of heatwaves with lower evaporation fluxes (lower tertile). The commensurate surface cooling induced by higher transpiration was only 2% during heatwaves, suggesting that transpiration has a limited ability to mitigate extreme surface temperatures. This study allows for improved prediction of ecosystem feedbacks under extreme thermal stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid Penman-Monteith and machine learning model for simulating evapotranspiration and its components

Integrating physical processes with machine learning has advanced evapotranspiration (ET) simulation, yet most hybrid models fail to partition total ET into its components: soil evaporation (E) and vegetation transpiration (T). This study introduces Residual Neural Network–Penman–Monteith (RNN-PM), a novel hybrid dual-source ET model designed to overcome this limitation. The model synergizes the physically-based Penman–Monteith framework with three specialized residual neural networks trained to estimate key conductance parameters (canopy conductance, soil surface conductance, and aerodynamic conductance). Furthermore this explicit parameterization allows for the direct partitioning of total ET. Validation at National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites using high-frequency partitioned E and T shows that RNN-PM reliably reproduces ET and the transpiration fraction (T/ET). For ET, the model achieves an average Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.89 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.55 mm/day; for T/ET, the KGE is 0.87 with an RMSE of 0.06. Furthermore, RNN-PM demonstrates robust generalization, accurately simulating ET and its components well beyond the initial training dataset, even under extreme climatic conditions. This study extended the analysis by comparing the RNN-PM model with seven established dual-source ET models. The results indicate that RNN-PM outperforms both conventional machine learning models and purely physical process-based models in simulating ET components in most cases. Among the purely physical process-based dual-source models, those based on surface temperature decomposition showed improved performance as the leaf area index (LAI) decreased when evaluated against high-frequency ET component datasets. In contrast, the performance of conductance-based dual-source models declined with decreasing LAI. Although purely machine learning-based models can produce relatively accurate simulations of ET components, they often exhibit limited generalization capability, an issue that the RNN-PM model effectively overcomes. Ultimately, the RNN-PM model represents a significant advance in simulating ET components, offering a novel and scalable approach for improving the representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A machine learning pipeline for identifying infiltration managed aquifer recharge locations from satellite imagery in the San Joaquin Valley, California

This study focuses on an agricultural region in California’s Central Valley, USA, where Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is widely implemented to mitigate groundwater depletion under increasing water demand and climate variability. A deep learning and machine learning framework was developed to identify infiltration-MAR locations using satellite imagery and environmental data. The framework integrates surface water detection from Sentinel-2 imagery, geospatial delineation of water bodies, spatiotemporal tracking of water body dynamics, and supervised classification using meteorological, environmental, and topographic variables. The framework was applied to a 2379 km² study area southwest of Fresno, where 765 water bodies were detected, including 139 identified MAR sites based on publicly available datasets and expert knowledge. The classification model achieved an accuracy of 0.94 and an F1 score of 0.85. Feature importance analysis indicates that cropland, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and evaporation are among the most influential predictors for infiltration-MAR. Notably, the framework suggests that engineered water management in infiltration-MAR systems can disrupt or even reverse the expected positive correlation between surface water extent and precipitation. These findings provide physically interpretable insights into the characteristics of existing infiltration-MAR facilities and demonstrate the potential of the proposed framework as a reproducible, interpretable, and potentially transferable tool for data-driven infiltration-MAR identification and inventory development under growing climatic and hydrological uncertainty.

Classification↗
DOE OSTI2025

Causal relationships of vegetation productivity with root zone water availability and atmospheric dryness at the catchment scale

Abstract. This study explores the causal relationships between catchment water availability, vapor pressure deficit, and gross primary productivity (GPP) across 341 catchments in the contiguous US. Seasonal climatic, hydrological, and vegetation characteristics were represented using the Horton index, ecological aridity index, evaporative fraction index, and carbon uptake efficiency. Statistical methods, including circularity statistics, correlation analysis, and causality tests, were employed to determine the complex interactions between catchment wetness, atmospheric dryness, and vegetation carbon uptake. The results revealed a maximum lag of 2 months in the intra-annual variability of catchment water supply–productivity and atmospheric water demand–productivity relationships, with hysteresis patterns varying with the catchment's hydrological characteristics. In catchments not permanently under water-limited or energy-limited conditions, vegetation experiences hydrological stress during the peak growing period, coinciding with the highest gross primary productivity and carbon uptake efficiency being out of phase with the Horton index and in phase with the evaporative fraction index. Causality analysis highlights strong temporal continuity in GPP seasonal characteristics, with a cause–effect relationship between catchment water supply, atmospheric demand, and vegetation productivity spanning a maximum of 2 months. These findings underscore the need for a comprehensive functional framework that integrates catchment water supply, atmospheric demand, and vegetation productivity to enhance our understanding and predictive capabilities with regard to ecosystem responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Greening Future Elevates Flash Drought Risk in Northern Mid‐to‐High Latitudes

Flash droughts have become a growing concern, as they can emerge rapidly and increase the risk of crop failure. Although past studies have investigated the meteorological drivers and future changes of flash drought, why flash drought is more frequent over humid and vegetated regions remains underexplored. This study delves further into the mechanism by which vegetation regulates flash drought and its future change using observations from multiple data sets and large ensemble simulations from three Earth system models. On an interannual timescale, both observations and simulations show robust increases in flash drought frequency and a higher flash-to-sub-seasonal drought ratio during spring or antecedent conditions with dense vegetation, supporting the important role of vegetation in flash drought occurrence, especially in the northern mid-to-high latitudes. In the latter regions, the large ensemble simulations show robust increases in flash drought (e.g., 67% and 46% increases in Eastern U.S. and North Asia in 2050–2100 relative to 1950–2000 under the high emission scenario), where the growing season is lengthening. Although greening might suggest reduced drought stress, it drives precipitation-soil moisture-evapotranspiration decoupling by increasing evapotranspiration partitioning to transpiration. As transpiration can access deep soil water through the plant root system, its increased portion can weaken the constraints of concurrent precipitation on evapotranspiration, thus accelerating soil moisture depletion under high evaporative demand, driving a slow-to-rapid drought transition. How vegetation regulates flash drought by regulating surface moisture budget is supported by observations and simulations. Although warming supports early planting, agriculture may increasingly be threatened by surging flash drought risk.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2026

Accelerated Carbon and Water Cycles in the Amazon and Congo Basins Revealed From TRENDY Models and Remote Sensing Products

Tropical forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle and land–atmosphere interactions. Estimating tropical forest carbon–water dynamics is challenging due to observational and modeling uncertainties. This study leverages the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project models and satellite observations to assess changes (2003–2021) in vegetation carbon, gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and net biosphere production (NBP) in the Amazon and Congo. Atmospheric CO 2 , climate variability, and land use and land cover changes constrain these variables between 1700 and 2021 with the overall increasing trends of carbon stock and fluxes. The models overestimate vegetation carbon and GPP, while ET and NBP are consistent with observations. Fire-activated models predict lower values for vegetation carbon and GPP, ET, and NBP, aligning more closely with observations. The higher ET from fire-activated models may result from enhanced soil evaporation due to increased canopy openings. Fire-inactivated models could well estimate the magnitudes of NBP. The high vegetation carbon in nitrogen-enabled models points to simulation uncertainties and imbalance in model numbers regarding the nitrogen cycle. Although the nitrogen cycle enhances water use efficiency in both the Amazon and Congo, the models show a higher sensitivity to the nitrogen cycle in the Congo. This study highlights the challenges in accurately representing tropical biogeochemical cycles and the values of satellite products in model evaluations, underscoring the need for standard modeling protocols that address biogeochemical components (e.g., nutrient cycles) to better resolve process-based representations.

Shi, Mingjie [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2025

GNSS-based Vegetation Optical Depth, Tree Sway, and Evapotranspiration data from the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest (US-NR1) AmeriFlux site

This data package contains data and information about Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD), tree sway motion, and eddy-covariance evapotranspiration (ET) data collected at the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest AmeriFlux site (US-NR1). The raw GNSS data were collected between May 2022 and August 2023. Other processed datasets such as tree sway motion and ET data are also included. The goal was to study the water content within a subalpine forest and, more specifically, examine the canopy evaporation process. This data archive includes all data that were used within the following Biogeosciences discussion paper that further summarizes the research objectives and conclusions:Burns, S.P., V. Humphrey, E.D. Gutmann, M.S. Raleigh, D.R. Bowling, and P.D. Blanken, 2025: Using GNSS-based vegetation optical depth, tree sway motion, and eddy-covariance to examine evaporation of canopy-intercepted rainfall in a subalpine forest. EGUsphere [preprint],https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1755This data archive also supplements the 30-min Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) AmeriFlux dataset for US-NR1 (i.e., https://doi.org/10.17190/AMF/1246088) and updates what was in the 2020 ESS-DIVE US-NR1 archive (https://doi.org/10.15485/1671825) to include data from the years 2020-2025. More specifically, the following updates are provided: (i) five-minute statistics (means, variances, covariances) of all data measured by the US-NR1 data system between Sep 2020 and Jun 2025 in netCDF format, (ii) the electronic logbook of US-NR1 site visits, (iii) a web calendar (in HTML format) documenting activity at the site (a replica of https://urquell.colorado.edu/calendar/), (iv) photos taken at the site between years 2020 and present day (Aug 2025), and (v) several auxiliary datasets, primary related to trees near the site, soil properties, soil moisture and soil temperature, and subcanopy radiation data. The data package is setup so that the web calendar, photos, and electronic logbook can be easily accessed on a local computer using a web browser. The provided data files are in either BINEX or SBF format (for the raw GNSS data), netCDF, CSV, ASCII, or MATLAB format. To obtain a better understanding about the archive, please start by reading the following PDF which is included within the data archive:README_ESS_DIVE_USNR1_2025_readme_first.pdf.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical Investigation of Observational Flux Partitioning Methods for Water Vapor and Carbon Dioxide

Abstract While yearly budgets of CO 2 flux (F c ) and evapotranspiration (ET) above vegetation can be readily obtained from eddy‐covariance measurements, the separate quantification of their soil (respiration and evaporation) and canopy (photosynthesis and transpiration) components remains an elusive yet critical research objective. In this work, we investigate four methods to partition observed total fluxes into soil and plant sources: two new and two existing approaches that are based solely on analysis of conventional high frequency eddy‐covariance (EC) data. The physical validity of the assumptions of all four methods, as well as their performance under different scenarios, are tested with the aid of large‐eddy simulations, which are used to replicate eddy‐covariance field experiments. Our results indicate that canopies with large, exposed soil patches increase the mixing and correlation of scalars; this negatively impacts the performance of the partitioning methods, all of which require some degree of uncorrelatedness between CO 2 and water vapor. In addition, best performances for all partitioning methods were found when all four flux components are non‐negligible, and measurements are collected close to the canopy top. Methods relying on the water‐use efficiency (W) perform better whenWis known a priori, but are shown to be very sensitive to uncertainties in this input variable especially when canopy fluxes dominate. We conclude by showing how the correlation coefficient between CO 2 and water vapor can be used to infer the reliability of differentWparameterizations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate Conundrum: A Wet or Dry European and Northern African Climate During the Middle Miocene

Abstract End of 21st‐century hydroclimate projections suggest an expansion of subtropical dry zones, with Mediterranean and Sahel regions becoming much drier. However, paleobotanical assemblage evidence from the middle Miocene (17‐12 Ma), suggests both regions were instead humid environments. Here we show that by modifying regional sea surface temperatures (SST) in an Earth System Model (CESM1.2) simulation of the middle Miocene, the increased ocean evaporation and integrated water vapor flux overrides any drying effects associated with warming‐induced land‐surface evaporation driven by atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. These modifications markedly reduce the bias in the model‐data comparison for this period. A vegetation model (BIOME4) forced with simulated climatologies predicts both regions were dominated by mixed forest, which is largely consistent with the paleobotanical record. This study unveils the potential for wetter subtropical Mediterranean climates associated with warming, presenting an alternative scenario from future drying projections with localized SST warming governing regional climate change.

Acosta, R. P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Daily evapotranspiration changes during heatwaves at 32 NEON sites, 2019-2021

This dataset provides partitioned evapotranspiration (ET, the combined loss of water from soil and plant surfaces) anomalies during heatwave events—soil evaporation (E) and transpiration (T)—for 268 heatwave events across 32 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites in the contiguous United States from 2019–2021. Using an ensemble of four high-frequency turbulence methods (Flux-variance Similarity, Conditional Eddy Covariance [CEC], CEC with Water-Use Efficiency, and Conditional Eddy Accumulation; see Zahn and Bou-Zeid 2024), half-hourly transpiration-to-evapotranspiration (T/ET) ratios were derived from 20 hertz (Hz, cycles per second) eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and water vapor (H₂O) concentrations. The dataset spans six vegetation types including evergreen and deciduous forests, grasslands, cultivated crops, shrublands, and emergent herbaceous wetlands. Data Package Contents: The dataset includes a single CSV (comma-separated values) file containing daily anomalies (deviations from baseline conditions) for transpiration (Delta_T), evaporation (Delta_E), total evapotranspiration (Delta_ET), and T/ET ratio (Delta_T_ET) during each day of identified heatwave events. The file also includes site codes, dates, heatwave event identifiers, and day-of-heatwave indicators. The CSV file can be opened with spreadsheet software (Microsoft Excel, Google Sheets) or programming environments (Python, R, MATLAB). This resource enables researchers to investigate ecosystem-specific responses to thermal extremes, validate land surface model partitioning of ET fluxes, and examine feedbacks between water cycling and surface energy balance during heatwaves. The dataset is particularly valuable for studies linking vegetation hydraulic strategies to climate resilience, as it captures the divergent responses of shallow-rooted versus deep-rooted ecosystems. Potential applications include improving drought early warning systems, informing irrigation management strategies, and advancing our mechanistic understanding of land-atmosphere interactions under extreme heat conditions.

Day of Heatwave↗
DOE OSTI2025

Current and candidate additives for environmentally acceptable lubricants—A review

The world consumes approximately 40 million tons of lubricants annually, and nearly half of them end up in the environment because of leaks, discharges, and evaporation, causing significant environmental and economic impacts. The need for moving toward environmentally acceptable lubricants (EALs) is increasingly being recognized. Synthetic ester, polyalkylene glycol, vegetable oil, and water are among the base fluids approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for EALs. However, neat base fluids cannot fully meet the lubrication requirements without incorporating functional additives such as anti-wear, antioxidant, corrosion inhibitor, and viscosity modifiers. Both the performance and environmental compatibility of lubricant additives are critical. In this article, current and candidate EAL additives, both in liquid and solid forms, are reviewed, with a focus on their functionalities in friction and wear reduction, toxicity, and biodegradability. Finally, a perspective for future research on EAL additives is discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evapotranspiration partitioning estimates from 8 methods from 47 NEON sites, 2019-2021

This dataset provides daily estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) and the transpiration-to-evapotranspiration ratio (T/ET) across 47 terrestrial National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites spanning diverse environmental and biome conditions in the United States across three years of data (2019-2021). Daily ET is reported in both energy units (MJ m⁻² day⁻¹) and equivalent water depth (mm day⁻¹), assuming a constant latent heat of vaporization of 2.45 MJ/kg. The primary method uses a hybrid recurrent neural network–Penman–Monteith framework (RNN-PM), which integrates physically based surface energy balance constraints with data-driven learning to partition ET into transpiration and evaporation components. Model inputs include in situ meteorological observations (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, wind speed, and radiation) combined with satellite-derived land surface temperature, leaf area index, and soil moisture. For benchmarking and uncertainty assessment, T/ET estimates from seven additional models are included: Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL), Penman-Monteith (P-M), Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), among others—spanning empirical, machine-learning, and process-based approaches (see methods section or linked publication for detailed descriptions). Data Package Contents: The dataset a csv files containing daily ET and T/ET estimates for each site and model, along with associated metadata files these variables. Data can be accessed using common spreadsheet software (e.g., Microsoft Excel, LibreOffice) or programming environments such as R or Python. Together, these data support cross-site comparisons of ecosystem water use, evaluation of ET partitioning methods, and development of improved land–atmosphere exchange models.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE↗