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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

A Real-Time Vehicle-Specific Eco-Routing Model for On-Board Navigation Applications Capturing Transient Vehicle Behavior

The paper develops a real-time vehicle-specific eco-routing model for use in on-board navigation systems for both conventional fuel- and battery-powered electric vehicles. The model uses a novel link cost function that retains all microscopic transient behavior along a link by capturing within-link speed, acceleration, and road grade variations. Specifically, eight vehicle-agnostic link-specific variables are transmitted to the cloud and fused with information received from other connected vehicles. The fused data are then sent back to the connected vehicles and used to compute vehicle-specific eco-routes (edge computing). The solution produces an energy-efficient dynamic user-equilibrium traffic assignment that is solved incrementally. A numerical experiment is first designed to test the model, demonstrating the benefits associated with vehicle-specific eco-routes compared to those produced by traditional models. The model is then implemented in a micro-simulation framework to evaluate the network-wide impacts of the proposed energy-efficient user-optimum incremental traffic assignment for different traffic demand levels. Results demonstrate that the proposed model produces lower network-wide energy consumption levels compared to traditional energy-efficient and travel time user-optimum traffic assignment methods for both conventional fuel and electric vehicles. Conventional fuel savings relative to travel time routing decrease with increasing traffic demand levels, while electric power savings do not vary monotonically with congestion levels. Energy savings relative to traditional eco-routing are also demonstrated to not vary monotonically with demand levels. Results of the study also demonstrate that the transportation network layout significantly affects the eco-routing system performance. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed model in real-world applications is discussed and presented.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Thermal Management Approaches for Integrated Traction Drives in Electric Vehicles

The continuous push to increase power densities of electric vehicle (EV) traction drive systems necessitates combining electric motor and power electronics into one unit. A single, compact traction drive unit with fewer interconnecting components also facilitates fast, automated assembly of electric vehicles, driving production costs down and enabling wider adoption of EVs. There are a number of challenges associated with the integration of power electronics with the electric machine, including thermal management of the combined traction drive system. However, one important benefit of integration from the thermal management system perspective is the potential for using a single fluid loop instead of two separate cooling systems for the electric machine and the power electronics/inverter. This paper reviews several integration approaches and, employing finite element analysis (FEA), compares thermal management solutions for the combined electric machine and power electronics systems. Namely, three different scenarios are modeled: (1) independent component (motor and power electronics) cooling, which is compared to the combined cooling system approach for (2) radially and (3) axially integrated power electronics modules into the motor enclosure. Temperature distributions for selected thermal loads and thermal resistances from the key heat-generating components to the cooling fluid are compared for each scenario.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-range vehicle speed prediction using vehicle connectivity for enhanced energy efficiency of vehicles

An integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data mining and real-time V2I communications for CAVs. The present framework provides multi-horizon speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The present multi-horizon speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs) as a case study. The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the present data mining strategy over long prediction horizons. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAV speed predictions, the vehicle level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal-driving and conventional BTM strategy.

Amini, Mohammad Reza↗
DOE OSTI2023

Highly Resolved Projections of Passenger Electric Vehicle Charging Loads for the Contiguous United States: Results From and Methods Behind Bottom-Up Simulations of County-Specific Household Electric Vehicle Charging Load (Hourly 8760) Profiles Projected Through 2050 for Differentiated Household and Vehicle Types

This report documents enhancements made to the TEMPO (Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options TM ) model to project spatially, demographically, and temporally resolved national-scale EV charging load profiles and describes three scenarios and corresponding datasets created for the NREL demand-side grid (dsgrid) project in support of bulk power systems modeling. In brief, TEMPO was enhanced to disaggregate national and annual energy demand projections into household and county-level projections of passenger electric vehicle (EV) hourly charging load profiles (8760 profiles), accounting for consumer, travel, and temperature variations that impact EV energy demand. In alignment with NREL's forward-looking grid modeling, three scenarios for EV adoption covering 2020-2050 were created-- Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Reference Case, Electrification Futures Study (EFS) High Electrification, and All EV Sales by 2035 --and associated datasets have been included in the dsgrid platform for public use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Potential Adoption and Benefits of Co-Optimized Multimode Engines and Fuels for U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles

Exploring a diverse portfolio of technologies for decarbonization is crucial to understanding the potential impacts of different technological solutions and their associated environmental implications. Using high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends in co-optimized multimode engines can increase engine efficiency and reduce vehicle emissions. Here, the multimode engine research focuses on the benefits of light-duty vehicle engines, which can operate in multiple modes depending on the vehicle's load. Low-temperature combustion can improve efficiency and reduce emissions (such as those from oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter) during low-load operation, while spark ignition performance is maintained in high-load operation. These advanced engines can be optimized to run on blends of biobased fuels. This analysis models scenarios for potential market adoption of co-optimized multimode vehicles fueled by three different bioblendstocks: ethanol, isopropanol, and isobutanol. An integrated modeling approach is used to forecast the energy and environmental impacts of the deployment of co-optimized multimode vehicles and fuels in the light-duty sector over the 2020-to-2050 time horizon. The multidisciplinary approach combines vehicle sales modeling, system dynamics modeling of the biorefining industry, and life cycle assessment to estimate the emissions and energy benefits. The models consider market forces such as consumer preferences for vehicle attributes, biofuel supply and demand dynamics subject to biorefinery capacity build-out and bioresource constraints, and forecasted changes to the U.S. bulk energy system over time. Market adoption of co-optimized vehicles is evaluated across a wide parameter space for incremental vehicle cost and engine efficiency improvement. This analysis reveals that the deployment of co-optimized multimode fuels and vehicles results in up to a 5% reduction in annual sector-wide life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, relative to a business-as-usual scenario, but is also indicates environmental trade-offs, such as higher life cycle water-use. Emission benefits could potentially increase beyond 2050, as the new technologies penetrate the market and gain a foothold. Results also show that, under certain circumstances, vehicles with engines co-optimized for use with high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends can be cost-competitive with conventional gasoline, while reducing GHG emissions. Our modeling results indicate that co-optimized multimode fuels and engines can be strategically leveraged in tandem with electrification to decarbonize the light-duty sector. Co-optimized vehicles could play a role in the early years of the time horizon, while electric vehicles (EVs) could become more competitive in the later years, highlighting the complementary benefits of these technologies for GHG reductions.

Oke, Doris↗
DOE OSTI2022

Important powertrain dynamics for developing models for control of connected and automated electrified vehicles

Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV) technology presents significant opportunities for energy saving in the transportation sector. CAV technology forecasts vehicle and powertrain power needs under various terrain, ambient, and traffic conditions. Integration of the CAV technology in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) provides the opportunity for optimal vehicle operation. Indeed, Hybrid Electric Vehicle powertrains present high degrees of flexibility and possibility for choosing optimum powertrain modes based on the predicted traction power needs. In modeling complex CAV powertrain dynamics, the modeler needs to consider short-time scale powertrain dynamics, such as engine transients, and hysteresis of mode-switching for a multi-mode HEV. Therefore, the powertrain dynamics essential for developing powertrain controllers for a class of connected HEVs is presented. To this end, control-oriented powertrain dynamic models for a test vehicle consisting of full electric, hybrid, and conventional engine operating modes are developed. The resulting powertrain model can forecast vehicle traction torque and energy consumption for the specified prediction horizon of the test vehicle. The model considers different operating modes and associated energy penalty terms for mode switching. Thus, the vehicle controller can determine the optimum powertrain mode, torque, and speed for forecasted vehicle operation via utilizing connectivity data. The powertrain model is validated against the experimental data and shows prediction error of less than 5% for predicting vehicle energy consumption. The model is used to create energy penalty maps that can be used for CAV control, for example fuel penalty map for engine torque changes (10–40 Nm) at each engine speed. The results of model-based optimization show optimum switching delays ranging from 0.4 to 1.4 s to avoid hysteresis in mode switching.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Automated Vehicle Fuel Economy Benefits Evaluation Framework Using Real-World Travel and Traffic Data

Increasing automation is a consistent development trend in the automobile industry. However, real-world evaluation of the operational and energy consumption differences between automated vehicles and comparable manually driven vehicles has been limited. This study helps fill the information gap by comparing the operation and fuel economy of vehicles in adaptive cruise control (ACC) and non-ACC modes based on large-scale field test data collected by Volvo Car Corporation (Volvo Cars) from vehicles traveling on the designated 'Drive Me' project road network in Gothenburg, Sweden. The test vehicles' travel data are classified by driving mode (ACC vs. non-ACC) and driving conditions, which refer to traffic speed and road grade in this study. The results from the data logging fleet are used to estimate the aggregate fuel consumption differences at the Drive Me road-network level for vehicles traveling in ACC vs. non-ACC mode based on appropriately weighting the total amount of travel that took place on the network under different driving conditions. At the ACC penetration levels observed in the field test data, vehicles tended to drive more smoothly in ACC mode than in non-ACC mode. The corresponding travel-weighted fuel consumption rate for vehicles in ACC mode was about 5%-7% lower than for vehicles in non-ACC mode when traveling at similar conditions. Sensitivity analyses impart confidence in this result, and in the future, the established evaluation framework could be used to objectively quantify potential on-road fuel consumption impacts from vehicles with even higher levels of automated driving capability.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Consumption and Cost Reduction of Future Light-Duty Vehicles through Advanced Vehicle Technologies: A Modeling Simulation Study Through 2050

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) aim to develop sustainable, affordable and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate vehicle-level fuel savings potential is critical for understanding DOE’s impact. In this work, we simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light duty vehicles. The simulations were performed across: Multiple powertrain configurations (i.e., conventional, power-split, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles), Vehicle classes (i.e., compact car, midsize car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], midsize SUV, and pickup trucks); and Fuels (i.e., gasoline, diesel, hydrogen, and battery electricity). These various technologies are assessed for six different timeframes: laboratory years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. A delay of 5 years is assumed between laboratory year and model year (year technology is introduced into production). Finally, uncertainties are included for both technology performance and cost aspects by considering two cases: Low case, aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on regulations, business as usual; and High case, aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on R&D targets developed through support by VTO & HFTO. These scenarios are not intended as predictions of future performances. The energy and cost impact of different technologies were estimated using Autonomie (www.autonomie.net), Argonne vehicle system simulation tool. Autonomie is a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool used to assess the energy consumption, performance and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies across classes (from light to heavy duty), powertrains (from conventional to HEVs, FCEVs, PHEVs and BEVs), components and control strategies. Autonomie is packaged with a complete set of vehicle models for a wide range of vehicle classes, powertrain configurations and component technologies, including vehicle level and component level controls. These controls were developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies including analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrains components for different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route based vehicle energy control and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions and estimates the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs for the various types of light duty vehicles. All details of vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the potential of hydrogen in decarbonizing China's light-duty vehicle market

The Chinese government has pledged to achieve overall carbon neutrality by 2060. Currently, the transportation sector contributes to about 10% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China. Hence, China has created a well-defined energy vehicle development strategy to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector, further expanding into hydrogen vehicle technologies. In this study, the Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) investigates the potential of hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (H2- ICEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) as a reliable pathway towards the government's aspiration of carbon neutrality in the transportation sector. According to TEAM, by adopting FCEVs and H2-ICEVs in the vehicle market, hydrogen demand could reach 25% of the total light-duty transportation energy demand in 2050. Consequently, this will lead to an annual reduction of more than 35 million tons GHG compared to only counting on the electrification pathway in the decarbonization task. Besides, FCEVs would take longer to penetrate the light-duty vehicle market compared to H2-ICEVs, as the current fuel cell technology still requires much improvement to attain a competitive vehicle cost of production.

Life cycle analysis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Demonstration of a Class 6 Range-Extended Electric Vehicle for Commercial Pickup and Delivery Operation: Preprint

Range-extended hybrids are an attractive option for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle fleets because they offer the efficiency of an electrified powertrain with the driving range of a conventional diesel powertrain. The vehicle essentially operates as if it was purely electric for most trips, while ensuring that all commercial routes can be completed in any weather conditions or geographic terrain. Fuel use and point-source emissions can be significantly reduced, and in some cases eliminated, as many shorter routes can be fully electrified with this architecture. Under a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-funded project for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Powertrain Electrification, Cummins has developed a plug-in hybrid electric Class 6 truck with a range-extending engine designed for pickup and delivery application. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) assisted by developing representative workday drive cycles for Class 6 operation and an adapted cycle to enable vehicle track testing. A novel, automated driving system was utilized by Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) to improve the repeatability of the track testing conducted to quantify vehicle energy consumption. Cummins used a drivetrain model to design the hybrid control system for increased fuel savings. The control system functionality and fuel savings objective of 50% or more were confirmed by track testing described in this paper.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Debate on Vehicle Triad: Examining the Utilization Patterns of Gasoline, Hybrid, and Electric Vehicles in Households

Light-duty vehicles contribute to approximately half of the transport sector's emissions, a sector challenging to decarbonize owing to the autocentric nature of many American cities. The U.S. Department of Transportation's blueprint outlines three key decarbonization strategies: increasing convenience, improving efficiency, and transitioning to zero-emission vehicles. Among these, the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) offers a promising opportunity to reduce emissions from light-duty vehicles, which are predominantly gasoline-powered. Although substantial literature identifies and addresses factors influencing EV adoption, understanding their utilization within households who own vehicles with mixed fuel types is crucial for accurately assessing their environmental benefits. This paper addresses two key questions: (a) Are EVs utilized more, equally, or less than gasoline vehicles (GVs) and (b) What factors influence mileage utilization patterns in households with multiple vehicle fuel types, accounting for substitution and complementary effects? Analysis of 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data indicates that EVs are utilized more than GVs within households that own multiple mixed fuel fleets. Findings reveal that households with a higher number of younger individuals and multiple workers use EVs more extensively, and those with older adults and larger households with multiple vehicles tend to use GVs more. Rural households have higher use of hybrid vehicles (HVs). The study identifies a substitution effect between EVs and GVs, while complementary relationship between HVs and EVs, suggesting nuances in vehicle utilization patterns. This nuanced understanding of vehicle utilization patterns informs the development of targeted policies and infrastructure investments to optimize household transportation efficiency.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparing total cost of ownership of battery electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles

The technological advance of electrochemical energy storage and the electric powertrain has led to rapid growth in the deployment of electric vehicles. The high cost and the added weight of the batteries have limited the size (energy storage capacity) and, therefore, the driving range of these vehicles. However, consumers are steadily purchasing these vehicles because of the fast acceleration, quiet ride, and high energy efficiency. The higher pack-to-wheel efficiency and the lower energy cost per mile, as well as the lower expense for maintenance and repair, translate to operating savings over conventional vehicles. Here we compare battery electric vehicles with internal combustion engine vehicles based on the total cost of ownership. It is seen that the higher initial cost of electric vehicles can be recovered in as little as 5 years. This is especially true for electric vehicles with shorter driving ranges. Specifically, a vehicle with an electric driving range under 200 miles may achieve cost parity with an equivalent internal combustion engine vehicle in 8 years or less.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automated Classification of Vehicle Movements at Signalized Intersections Using Vehicle Trajectories

Accurate vehicle movement classification through signalized intersections is of paramount importance to the analysis of intersection performance and the optimization of traffic control strategies. Conventional techniques for tracking vehicle turning movements depend on infrastructure-based strategies like human counts, loop detectors, and video analytics, all of which are costly, prone to errors, and spatially constrained. High-frequency trajectory data can be utilized to determine vehicle movement patterns in a scalable and infrastructure-independent method due to the adoption of connected vehicles (CVs). In recent years, several studies have utilized connected vehicle data to generate performance measures. Most of the trajectory-based performance measures approaches, however, require map matching-i.e., extracting geospatial references from maps to identify the movements that individual vehicles make at a signalized intersection. These approaches are often time-consuming and hinder scalability since geographic features need to be provided for an analysis to be conducted. Map matching methods are prone to errors as different map versions change these geographic features. This research presents a novel automatic classification pipeline that uses CV trajectory data to classify vehicle movements at signalized crossings, specifically pass-through left-turn and right-turn maneuvers. The process starts by filtering trips that cross a spatial bounding box that has been defined at the target intersection. Approach and departure headings for each trajectory crossing the boundary are computed and are clustered together to identify dominant movements. The proposed algorithm is used to classify the movement of vehicles at 10 intersections in the state of California, and the results indicate that the algorithm can classify movements at these intersections with varying traffic volumes and road network configurations, all in a map-less framework with no need for conflation of vehicle trajectories to a digital base map.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Eco Look-Ahead Control of Battery Electric Vehicles and Roadway Grade Effects

Roadway grade is one of the major variables that affects a vehicle’s energy consumption. This study demonstrates the potential benefits of an eco look-ahead control for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The proposed eco look-ahead controller was developed for the lead vehicle of a platoon of BEVs. The eco look-ahead control predicts the optimum speed and acceleration levels within a preset speed window to minimize energy consumption considering the instantaneous energy used and the regenerated energy. The developed BEV eco look-ahead control system integrates a BEV energy consumption model and a powertrain model to save fuel while maintaining vehicle speed within a user-specified window. In addition, the study demonstrates the effects of roadway grade on BEV energy consumption. The results show that the energy consumption of BEVs are significantly reduced on downhill roads compared with internal combustion engine vehicles owing to regenerative braking. Specifically, testing showed that BEVs could even produce extra energy on downhill roads. The study also tested the eco look-ahead control on an 18-km section of I-81 and found that the system produced savings of 8.51% and 26.88% in the uphill and downhill directions, respectively. This study demonstrated that regenerative energy in BEVs is a critical factor in energy efficiency and the developed eco look-ahead control significantly improved the energy efficiency for BEVs.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Highly Resolved Spatial-Temporal Vehicle Energy Consumption Estimation Using Machine Learning and Probe Data

Real-time highly resolved spatial-temporal vehicle energy consumption is a key missing dimension in transportation data. Most roadway link-level vehicle energy consumption data are estimated using average annual daily traffic measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System; however, this method does not reflect day-to-day energy consumption fluctuations. As transportation planners and operators are becoming more environmentally attentive, they need accurate real-time link-level vehicle energy consumption data to assess energy and emissions; to incentivize energy-efficient routing; and to estimate energy impact caused by congestion, major events, and severe weather. This paper presents a computational workflow to automate the estimation of time-resolved vehicle energy consumption for each link in a road network of interest using vehicle probe speed and count data in conjunction with machine learning methods in real time. The real-time pipeline can deliver energy estimates within a couple seconds on query to its interface. The proposed method was evaluated on the transportation network of the metropolitan area of Chattanooga, Tennessee. The volume estimation results were validated with ground truth traffic volume data collected in the field. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the energy consumption pipeline was applied to real-world data to quantify road transportation-related energy reduction because of mitigation policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 and to measure energy loss resulting from congestion.

Severino, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2019

Vehicle Technologies and Fuel Cell Technologies Office Research and Development Programs: Prospective Benefits Assessment for Medium- and Heavy-duty Vehicles

Through a diverse set of programs, the Vehicle Technologies and Fuel Cell Technologies Offices of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) invest in early-stage vehicle and fuel cell research. The Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and the Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO) are two offices that are encompassed within EERE’s Sustainable Transportation pillar. VTO conducts research and development (R&D) to provide low-cost, reliable, and efficient energy for the transportation of goods and people across America. FCTO has a comprehensive portfolio of activities that address the barriers facing the development and implementation of hydrogen and fuel cells, with the ultimate goals of decreasing our dependence on oil, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and enabling clean, reliable power generation through both transportation and stationary uses of hydrogen. This report quantifies the vehicle-level and national-level benefits of successful VTO and FCTO R&D applied to medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. The benefits estimated include reductions in energy use and GHG emissions from and changes in expenditures on medium- and heavy-duty vehicles on the road in the United States through the year 2050. The potential future benefits of successfully developing and implementing these technologies were analyzed by comparing a “Program Success” case to a base case (the “No Program” case). The Program Success case represents the future with successful implementation of VTO and FCTO technologies. The No Program case represents a future in which VTO or FCTO do not contribute to these technologies after Fiscal Year (FY) 2019. Three side cases were analyzed to assess the sensitivity of the projections of market adoption to future electricity prices (including infrastructure costs), the availability of electricity and hydrogen at public stations, and fuel cell system efficiency. Advanced vehicle technologies supported by VTO and FCTO programs can greatly increase the fuel economy of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. As a result of EERE-supported technologies, the sales-weighted average fuel economy of the fleet of all new Class 7 and 8 trucks in the Program Success case is projected to be 1.2 times that of the trucks in the No Program case in 2035 and 1.3 times the baseline in 2050. These technologies in Classes 4–6 increase fuel economy by a factor of 1.46 in 2035 and 1.78 in 2050. The fuel economy of the entire on-road medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleet, including all fuel types, is projected to be higher by 10%, reaching 9.1 mpgde in 2035, and by 25%, reaching 11.0 mpgde in 2050. The resulting petroleum savings in 2050 were estimated to be 0.75 million barrels per day, and reductions in GHG emissions in 2050 were estimated to 110 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 -eq) per year. Such petroleum reductions result in significant reductions in fuel expenditure for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, totaling approximately $37 billion annually by 2035. Figure ES-1 shows the difference in projected consumption of diesel fuel, electricity, and hydrogen in the No Program and Program Success cases. Negative values show the reduction in the Program Success case, relative to the No Program case.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing Medium- & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis

We simulate adoption and energy consumption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the medium and heavy duty (MD/HD) sector. With continued improvement in ZEV technologies, total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional vehicles is achievable by 2035 for all MD/HD vehicle classes. Two technological solutions – battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are viable in multiple market segments, offering alternative pathways for decarbonization. In this scenario, ZEV sales reach 99+% by 2045 and 42% by 2030. 80% of the MD/HD stock transitions to ZEVs by 2050, reducing CO2 emissions by 69% from 2019. Disparities in adoption rate and vehicle usage between vehicle classes and between short and long-haul applications highlight opportunities for targeted policies (to reduce emissions it is critical to understand what vehicles transition to ZEV, not just how many vehicles). Results are highly sensitive to assumed fuel prices, technology improvement trajectories, adoption decision-making, and assumptions about future freight demand and vehicle use.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗