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The Nasa Multiscale Analysis Tool: an Enabling Platform for Achieving Vision 2040

Vision 2040 is a community-driven consensus document, written in 2018, aimed at defining the potential 25-year future state required for performing integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems for future aerospace and aeronautical applications. Nine Vision Key Elements (KEs) were defined along with associated technical gaps. This paper will address current NASA GRC research efforts utilizing the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). This paper will specifically focus on NASMAT’s ability to address gaps in three of the nine Vision 2040 KEs: 1) Models and Methods, 2) Multiscale Measurements and Characterization Tools and Methods, and 6) Data, Informatics, and Visualization. NASMAT is a versatile platform for performing computationally efficient multiscale analyses of heterogeneous materials. NASMAT offers the user flexibility to define an arbitrary number of length scales (levels) where a variety of micromechanics theories can be implemented at each level. Micromechanics theories can be selected to balance accuracy and computational efficiency and range from analytical (Mori-Tanaka) to several semi-analytical (method of cells) formulations. NASMAT can also be coupled with external software and used to perform multiscale analyses of more complex structures. The paper will include a recent application of NASMAT to model a complex, three-dimensional woven composite, with a particular emphasis placed on multiscale measurements utilized to enhance the quality of the multiscale analysis. Since typical NASMAT analyses can be completed in on the order of seconds to minutes, a second example will demonstrate NASMAT’s ability to generate large quantities of data useful for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, or machine learning applications. Current progress on developing multiscale data visualization tools will also be addressed along with the challenges associated with and proposed solutions for sifting through large amounts of data. These examples will demonstrate that NASMAT is an enabling platform for achieving the goals in Vision 2040.

Vision 2040↗

Vision 2040: A Roadmap for Integrated, Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Materials and Systems

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new materials characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) and additive manufacturing have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. While these advances have driven significant progress in the development of aerospace components and systems, that progress has been limited by persistent technology and infrastructure challenges that must be overcome to realize the full potential of integrated materials and systems design and simulation modeling throughout the supply chain. As a result, NASA's Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a diverse team led by Pratt & Whitney) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This report describes the findings of this 2040 Vision study (e.g., the 2040 vision state; the required interdependent core technical work areas, Key Element (KE); identified gaps and actions to close those gaps; and major recommendations) which constitutes a community consensus document as it is a result of over 450 professionals input obtain via: 1) four society workshops (AIAA, NAFEMS, and two TMS), 2) community-wide survey, and 3) the establishment of 9 expert panels (one per KE) consisting on average of 10 non-team members from academia, government and industry to review, update content, and prioritize gaps and actions. The study envisions the development of a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of fit-for-purpose materials, components, and systems. Although the vision focused on aeronautics and space applications, it is believed that other engineering communities (e.g., automotive, biomedical, etc.) can benefit as well from the proposed framework with only minor modifications. Finally, it is TTT's hope and desire that this vision provides the strategic guidance to both public and private research and development decision makers to make the proposed 2040 vision state a reality and thereby provide a significant advancement in the United States global competitiveness.

multi-scale modeling↗

2040 Vision Study: NASA’s T3 Implementation Activities

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new materials characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) and additive manufacturing have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. As a result, NASA’s Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a team led by Pratt & Whitney) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This talk will briefly review the findings of this 2040 Vision study (e.g., the 2040 vision state; the required interdependent core technical work areas, Key Element (KE); associated critical gaps and actions to close those gaps; and major recommendations) and discuss NASA’s TTT implementation activities, with special emphasis on recent accomplishments. The study, NASA CR 2018- 219771, envisions the development of a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that marries two non-mutually exclusive paradigms – “design of the materials” (material scientist viewpoint) and “design with the materials” (structural analyst viewpoint) – into a concurrent transformational paradigm that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of fit-for-purpose materials, components, and systems. Although the vision focused on aeronautics and space applications, it is believed that other engineering communities (e.g., automotive, biomedical, etc.) can benefit as well from the proposed framework with only minor modifications. Finally, it is TTT’s hope and desire that this vision provides the strategic guidance to both public and private research and development decision makers to make the proposed 2040 vision state a reality and thereby provide a significant advancement in the United State's global competitiveness

Materials↗

2040 Vision Study: an Enlargement of Model Based Engineering

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new materials characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) and additive manufacturing have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. As a result, NASA's Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a team led by Pratt & Whitney) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This talk will briefly review the findings of this 2040 Vision study (e.g., the 2040 vision state; the required interdependent core technical work areas, Key Element (KE); associated critical gaps and actions to close those gaps; and major recommendations). The study, NASA CR 2018- 219771, envisions the development of a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that marries two non-mutually exclusive paradigms _ "design of the materials" (material scientist viewpoint) and "design with the materials" (structural analyst viewpoint) _ into a concurrent transformational paradigm that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of fit-for-purpose materials, components, and systems. Although the vision focused on aeronautics and space applications, it is believed that other engineering communities (e.g., automotive, biomedical, etc.) can benefit as well from the proposed framework with only minor modifications. Finally, it is TTT's hope and desire that this vision provides the strategic guidance to both public and private research and development decision makers to make the proposed 2040 vision state a reality and thereby provide a significant advancement in the United States global competitiveness.

Arnold, Steven M.↗

2040 Vision: A Roadmap for Integrated, Multiscale Materials and System Modeling and Simulation

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new materials characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) and additive manufacturing have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. While these advances have driven significant progress in the development of aerospace components and systems, that progress has been limited by persistent technology and infrastructure challenges that must be overcome to realize the full potential of integrated materials and systems design and simulation modeling throughout the supply chain. As a result, NASA's Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a team led by Pratt & Whitney) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This talk will describe the findings of this 2040 Vision study (e.g., the 2040 vision state; the required interdependent core technical work areas, Key Element (KE); associated critical gaps and actions to close those gaps; and major recommendations). This roadmap is a community consensus document and is a result of over 450 professionals input obtain via: i) four society workshops (AIAA, NAFEMS, and two TMS), ii) community-wide survey, and iii) the establishment of 9 expert panels (one per key element) consisting on average 10 non-team members from academia, government and industry to review, update content, and prioritize gaps and actions. It is NASA's hope and desire that this roadmap provides the strategic guidance to both public and private research and development decision makers to make the proposed 2040 vision state a reality and thereby provide a significant advancement in the United States global competitiveness.

Multiscale Modeling↗

Vision 2040: Evolving the Successful International Space University

Space exploration has always been full of inspiration, innovation, and creativity, with the promise of expanding human civilization beyond Earth. The space sector is currently experiencing rapid change as disruptive technologies, grassroots programs, and new commercial initiatives have reshaped long-standing methods of operation. Throughout the last 28 years, the International Space University (ISU) has been a leading institution for space education, forming international partnerships, and encouraging entrepreneurship in its over 4,000 alumni. In this report, our Vision 2040 team projected the next 25 years of space exploration and analyzed how ISU could remain a leading institution in the rapidly changing industry. Vision 2040 considered five important future scenarios for the space sector: real-time Earth applications, orbital stations, lunar bases, lunar and asteroid mining, and a human presence on Mars. We identified the signals of disruptive change within these scenarios, including underlying driving forces and potential challenges, and derived a set of skills that will be required in the future space industry. Using these skills as a starting point, we proposed strategies in five areas of focus for ISU: the future of the Space Studies Program (SSP), analog missions, outreach, alumni, and startups. We concluded that ISU could become not just an increasingly innovative educational institution, but one that acts as an international organization that drives space commercialization, exploration, innovation, and cooperation.

Martin, Gary↗

Application Table: A Bridge Connecting the Designing “With-The-Material” and “The-Material” Paradigms

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new material characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. In 2016 NASA sponsored a 2040 Vision study (which appeared in 2018) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. The study envisions a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated (V & V) computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of “fit-for-purpose” materials, components, and systems. Consequently, the development of a robust information management system that incorporates (across the full life cycle) both experimental (real data) and virtual data resulting from the application of various simulation tools (at single or multiple length scales), therefore enabling the virtual design and optimization of materials throughout their processing – internal structure – property – performance envelope, has become critical. This need is also fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing; consistency, quality, and traceability of data; product design; engineering analysis; as well as control of access to proprietary or sensitive information. This is particularly true when attempting to merge ICME practices with recent additive manufacturing technology which will enable production of the resulting 2040 Vision material and structural designs. At NASA Glenn Research Center we are exploring the future of material science through the use of novel characterization methodologies, high performance computing, and recently an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Herein, recent efforts to incorporate an Application Table within NASA Glenn Research Center’s ICME Granta MI database is presented. The goal is to provide a place where material and structural application information/requirements can be linked so as to marry the “design the-material” and the “design-with-material” paradigms and thereby enable application-driven design and optimization of materials and structures by providing a central location that links material processing at various length scales to the application’s performance requirements. This paper discusses the specifics of this Application Table as well as best practices and key principles for the development of a robust materials information management system to enable the 2040 Vision integrated materials and structures ecosystem. Furthermore, it presents the intended role of the Application Table in the future of ICME design of “fit-for-purpose” materials, showing the need for a well-established framework that can successfully bridge the gap between the design “the material” and design “with-the-material” paradigms.

Materials↗

Application Table: A Bridge Connecting the Designing “With-the-Material” and “the-Material”

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new material characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. In 2016 NASA sponsored a 2040 Vision study (which appeared in 2018) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. The study envisions a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated (V & V) computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of “fit-for-purpose” materials, components, and systems. Consequently, the development of a robust information management system that incorporates (across the full life cycle) both experimental (real data) and virtual data resulting from the application of various simulation tools (at single or multiple length scales), therefore enabling the virtual design and optimization of materials throughout their processing – internal structure – property – performance envelope, has become critical. This need is also fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing; consistency, quality, and traceability of data; product design; engineering analysis; as well as control of access to proprietary or sensitive information. This is particularly true when attempting to merge ICME practices with recent additive manufacturing technology which will enable production of the resulting 2040 Vision material and structural designs. At NASA Glenn Research Center we are exploring the future of material science through the use of novel characterization methodologies, high performance computing, and recently an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Herein, recent efforts to incorporate an Application Table within NASA Glenn Research Center’s ICME Granta MI database is presented. The goal is to provide a place where material and structural application information/requirements can be linked so as to marry the “design the-material” and the “design-with-material” paradigms and thereby enable application-driven design and optimization of materials and structures by providing a central location that links material processing at various length scales to the application’s performance requirements. This paper discusses the specifics of this Application Table as well as best practices and key principles for the development of a robust materials information management system to enable the 2040 Vision integrated materials and structures ecosystem. Furthermore, it presents the intended role of the Application Table in the future of ICME design of “fit-for-purpose” materials, showing the need for a well-established framework that can successfully bridge the gap between the design “the material” and design “with-the-material” paradigms.

Materials↗

An Enabling Platform for Achieving Multiscale Multiphysics Analysis of Multiphase Materials

This paper will address current NASA GRC research efforts utilizing the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) which address technical gaps in three of the Vision 2040 key discipline areas. NASMAT is a versatile platform for performing computationally efficient multiscale analyses of heterogeneous materials and is available free through the NASA software catalog. It offers the user flexibility to define an arbitrary number of length scales (levels) where a variety of micromechanics theories can be implemented at each level. Micromechanics theories can be selected to balance accuracy and computational efficiency and range from analytical (Mori-Tanaka) to several semi-analytical (method of cells) formulations. The resulting anisotropic, evolving nonlinear, thermomechanical constitutive model can also be coupled with external software and used to perform multiscale analyses of more complex structures. A recent application to model a complex, three-dimensional woven composite, with a particular emphasis placed on multiscale measurements utilized to enhance the quality of the multiscale analysis will be discussed. Since typical NASMAT analyses can be completed on the order of seconds to minutes, a second example will demonstrate the ability to generate large quantities of data useful for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, or machine learning applications. Current progress on implementing NASMAT within a multiscale digital thread/digital twin framework will also be addressed. These examples will demonstrate that NASMAT is an enabling platform for achieving the goals in Vision 2040.

Multiscale↗

Capturing, Analyzing, Maintaining, and Disseminating Shape Memory Material Data Between Information Management Systems

With an increased demand on reducing the time, cost, and effort to develop new materials, Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) has received widespread attention in various engineering disciplines as a catalyst for significantly reducing experimental testing during the material design process. An ICME approach to design can enable ‘fit-for-purpose’ materials to be realized in engineering applications by incorporating well-understood process-property-performance relationships between the various length and time scales in a material’s structure, enabling material optimization. However, such an approach requires validated multiscale models at the various length scales for a material, which in turn requires a large amount of data, a robust means of storing the data, and the ability to link data to developed material models. The NASA Vision 2040 [1] has identified nine key elements to enabling ICME approaches in system level design, with one being “Data, Information, and Visualization”, thus outlining the importance of a robust information management system for ICME. As the relationship between microstructure, properties, and material performance become better understood and incorporated into multiscale models that can be leveraged in application design, the emergence of new materials with application-driven properties can be realized. One such new material class that has seen growing attention are shape memory materials (SMM), in which a material can transition between a deformed and undeformed state via a reversible phase transformation when subject to a thermal, mechanical, or magnetic load [2]. SMMs have been used widely in aerospace and biomedical industries, including applications such as actuators, low-shock mechanisms, medical staples, braces, and stents [3, 4]. These materials exhibit unique behavior due to their ability to transition between phases, and thus the mechanisms that enable this transition must be captured in a data information management system and incorporated into SMM material models. At NASA Glenn Research Center, the Shape Memory Materials Database (SMMD) Tool has been developed to capture the necessary information that governs SMM material behavior and provide users the ability to select and visualize various SMMs for a specific application [5]. The database contains point-wise data for published SMM materials, along with the pedigree metadata for traceability necessary for a robust information management system. The database is also capable of storing in-house test data performed at NASA GRC by interacting with the developed Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) Analytics tool to extract the necessary point-wise values and populate the database. Although the SMMD Tool offers its users a single, authoritative source for SMM material data that is critical for model development and material design, the full material pedigree of the in-house test data for SMMs is not currently captured and is out of the scope for the SMMD tool. In this work, the schema for capturing SMM test data within the larger NASA GRC ICME Schema [6, 7, 8, 9] will be developed and implemented for thermomechanical tests conducted at NASA GRC. The developed schema will not only store the relevant data needed for the SMMD tool, but also the material pedigree (i.e., production of the bulk material, bulk material analysis, sample cut-out diagrams, sample fabrication procedure, etc.), test pedigree (i.e., test equipment used, measurement systems used, raw test data), and analysis pedigree (i.e., how the data in the SMMD tool is calculated). Furthermore, a Python-based framework will be developed to seamlessly interact between the SMA Analytics and SMMD tools, which will write the full dataset and associated metadata to the GRC Information Management System before passing the required point-wise data to the SMMD tool. Data informatics is a key element of the NASA Vision 2040, which requires not only that data is stored and maintained throughout the material lifecycle, but that the data is also accessible and reusable such that material development efforts can be minimized. Therefore, for an ICME design approach to be realized, a centralized information management system that drives the ICME process must be able to communicate with other databases. The work that will be presented in this presentation will therefore not only demonstrate the ability of NASA GRC’s information management system to capture SMM data, but also its ability to interact with pre-existing tools specialized for such materials.

Data management↗

ICME: The Design of Fit-for-Purpose Materials

With the increased emphasis on reducing the cost and time to market of new materials, ICME (Integrated Computational Materials Engineering) has become a fast growing discipline within materials science and engineering. The vision of ICME is compelling in many respects, not only for the value added in reducing time to market for new products with advanced, tailored materials, but also for enhanced efficiency and performance of these materials. Although the challenges and barriers (both technical and cultural) are formidable, substantial cost, schedule, and technical benefits can result from broad development, implementation, and validation of ICME principles. ICME is an integrated approach to the design of products, and the materials that comprise them, by linking material and structural models at multiple time and length scales. NASA’s Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a team led by Pratt & Whitney) in 2016 to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This talk will briefly review ICME, the findings of the 2040 Vision study, and discuss NASA’s TTT 2040 implementation activities: with special emphasis on recent accomplishments. The 2040 study, NASA CR 2018- 219771, envisions the development of a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of fit-for-purpose materials, components, and systems by enabling the engineer to not only “design-with-the” material but also concurrently “design-the” material.

multiscale analysis↗

ICME for NASA Aerospace Applications: Batteries for Electric Aviation

NASA’s approach to computational materials modeling is detailed in the NASA Vision 2040 Roadmap for Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Materials and Systems. This report is in the spirit of national initiatives such as the Material Genome Initiative (MGI), Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), and others. We utilize a combination of fundamental modeling, computational high-throughput screening, and data science methods, e.g., machine learning, are used to find innovative solutions to NASA or national technology challenges. Applications of interest are wide ranging from advanced alloys to batteries to coatings, among others. In this talk, we present three examples for recent work related to NASA applications. First, doping advanced sulfur battery cathodes with selenium boosts electrical conductivity important for electric aircraft applications. First principles calculations will be discussed that result in compositional design maps for these materials. Second, development of icephobic coatings is important to mitigate safety hazards associated with icing for aircraft. Molecular dynamics simulations are reported for ice-surface interfaces to understand adhesion mechanisms and help screen optimal ice-phobic coatings. Third, shape memory alloys have numerous applications as actuators, superelastic materials, etc. for aerospace. We report machine learning models that predict martensitic transition temperatures across a broad swath of compositional space.

John Lawson↗

Digital Engineering Strategy Overview

Systems are changing and engineering practices must mind the balance between evolutionary and revolutionary change as we move towards increasingly agile processes, enabled by interconnected tools, to best provide for partnered collaboration. This is the first of many evolutions of the Goddard Digital Engineering strategy, in preparation for the NASA 2040 vision.

Digital Engineering↗

Digital Engineering at Goddard: Exploring the Digital Thread

Systems are changing and engineering practices must mind the balance between evolutionary and revolutionary change as we move towards increasingly agile processes, enabled by interconnected tools, to best provide for partnered collaboration. The Digital Thread is a foundational capability for a functional Digital Engineering Ecosystem, which is Phase 1 of Goddard's Digital Engineering strategy in an effort to achieve Goddard 2040 vision.

Digital Engineering↗

NASA GRC ICME Schema for Materials Data Management: An Executive Summary

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) has received a growing emphasis in attention due its potential impact on rapid material design, reduction in cost and time to market for new applications, and the promise of ‘fit-for-purpose’ materials coupled with recent advances in high performance computing and material characterization tools. However, for an organization to implement ICME practices for material discovery and design, a series of both technical and cultural challenges must be overcome to foster an environment that enables efficient, traceable, and predictive multiscale simulations of material behavior to enable virtual design of materials. In 2016, NASA sponsored a 2040 Vision study to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems to improve both the associated time and cost for aerospace and aeronautical innovation. The study envisions a cyber-physical-social ecosystem of experimentally validated computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that can enable rapid, optimized, ‘fit-for-purpose’ design of materials, components, and systems. A key requirement for such an ecosystem is the development of a robust information management system for materials across their full lifecycle, including material pedigree, experimental (real) and virtual (simulation) data, developed material models, and the implementation of models in engineering applications, such that process-structure-property-performance relationships can be established, thereby enabling the virtual design and optimization of materials. Such an information management system must be able to effectively capture: i) material information at each length scale; ii) test data and analysis; iii) associated material models; and iv) material and model deployment in engineering applications. These systems must also provide traceability between experimental and virtual representations of the material to ensure, when appropriate, the material digital twin is maintained. Additionally, this robust material information management system must be able to seamlessly connect with both commercial and an organization’s in-house software tools, be they analysis tools, other material databases, product lifecycle management (PLM) or simulation data management (SDM) tools, etc., such that automation of the design and analysis of a material across multiple length scales is possible. In this paper, an executive summary of the NASA GRC ICME Schema for materials information management is presented. The database best practices and schema design philosophy specifically for ICME materials data management and an overview description of each element in the schema is given, along with its associated role in an ICME workflow. Additionally, auxiliary tools that interact with the database and provide judicious automation with regards to importing, exporting, and analyzing materials data are presented. Such tools are critical to an ICME ecosystem, not only for their role in enabling optimization, but also in relieving users of tedious manual tasks, thus helping to promote adoption and combat the cultural challenges organizations face in enabling ICME.

Materials↗

Estimates of Future Numerical Weather Prediction Impacts from Hyperspectral Sounders

The United States’ satellite programs are currently in the process of evaluating the future of satellite observations of the Earth’s atmosphere, both as an individual nation and within the context of international partnerships. In an effort to better understand the impacts of various alternatives, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework has been utilized to evaluate several configurations of the international hyperspectral infrared sounder constellation from the perspective of global numerical weather prediction (NWP). This was done with an emphasis on the proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) Sounder (GXS), planned to launch in the mid-2030s, and similar planned missions from international partners. GXS, in addition to contributions from EUMETSAT and JMA, will form a global ring of geostationary sounders consistent with the WMO’s 2040 vision. In addition to a novel geostationary IR sounder program, considerations extend to the future of the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) sounder program with the upcoming demise of several existing instruments and plans for future missions ongoing. The GMAO OSSE framework has examined the potential roles of GEO and LEO sounders in weather prediction improvement. Overall, the inclusion of both GEO sounders in a global ring and LEO sounders produces the most beneficial observation impact and the most accurate global weather forecasts as evaluated using several metrics, including hurricanes and the FSOI.

Erica Mcgrath-Spangler↗

The Potential of GEO Sounders for Numerical Weather Prediction

The future of Earth observations from space is currently being decided upon in the United States. To better understand the impacts of various configurations, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework has been utilized to examine the impact of various hyperspectral infrared sounder constellations from the perspective of global numerical weather prediction (NWP). With an emphasis on the proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) Sounder (GXS), planned to launch in the mid-2030s, the NWP benefit of a global ring of geostationary sounders, consistent with the WMO’s 2040 vision is evaluated. In addition, considerations extend to the future of the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) sounder program with the loss of several existing instruments and plans for future missions ongoing. The GMAO OSSE framework has examined the potential complementarities of GEO and LEO sounders in weather prediction improvement. Overall, the inclusion of both GEO and LEO sounders produces the most beneficial impact on NWP for regional and global scales and the most accurate global weather forecasts as evaluated using several metrics, including hurricanes and the forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI).

Erica Mcgrath-Spangler↗