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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Establishing a silica gel zone in well annulus and evaluating its performance in blocking vertical water flow

Wells are often constructed for monitoring purposes with relatively long screen lengths (e.g., >10 m). Vertical water flows can occur within the artificial or natural filterpack annulus that surrounds the screened interval, bypassing packer assemblies installed inside the wellbore. Attempts to isolate discrete vertical zones during groundwater sampling are unsuccessful when annular flow occurs and lead to remedy decisions based on biased or incorrect interpretations. Blocking vertical annular water flow and contaminant transport will help obtain more accurate concentrations of contaminants from sampling in targeted depth intervals. The application of silica gels formed from the injected colloidal silica CS suspensions is a novel approach to minimize or prevent movement of vertical movement of groundwater in the surrounding filterpack annulus. In this work, we tested the feasibility of injecting CS suspensions to target locations and developed a modified CS formulation that is injectable and prevents gravity sinking. We studied the distribution and penetration of silica gel at laboratory scale in mock well annulus with surrounding formations. We evaluated the performance of the silica gel in blocking vertical water flow in the annulus and in minimizing chemical transport through the gel zone. CS suspension formulations have been defined that are ready for injection, stay in target locations, and form gel within desired time frames. Injection of CS suspensions achieved uniform distribution in a well annulus filter pack, fully occupied the annulus pore space, and penetrated the formation surrounding the filter packer with a sufficient distance to create a hydraulic annular seal when the injection was applied at a sufficient rate. The depth of penetration into the formation was dependent on the permeability contrast between the filter pack and the surrounding formation. Silica gel that formed in the annulus blocked vertical water flow and stopped the chemical transport through the gel zone. In conclusion, this research reveals that using CS suspension injection and sequential gelation (CS-GEL) is a promising technology for blocking vertical water flow and chemical transport through the filter pack in targeted zones within the annulus of long-screened well systems.

Colloidal silica suspension↗
DOE OSTI2024

Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model files to explore bedrock circulation depth and porosity in Copper Creek, Colorado

This data package contains integrated hydrological model input and output files for Copper Creek, Colorado (24 km2), a tributary of the East River located in the headwaters of the Upper Colorado River Basin. The model code is the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model. The model contains a 100-m grid resolution and a daily timestep. The land surface model is dynamically linked to a three-dimensional groundwater flow model that allows for streamflow gaining and losing conditions. The groundwater model contains 12 model layers and extends 400 m below land surface. The original Copper Creek model was modified to contain geologic layers representing saprolite, shallow bedrock, and deep bedrock. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. For the shallow case, median flow depths occur in the shallow saprolite at depths <8 m, while the deep case promotes a median groundwater flow depth of 100 m. With this modeling framework we compare streamflow response to a plausible worst-case drought lasting up to five years. Streamflow metrics of analysis include average streamflow, fraction of stream network that is dry, no-flow duration, average groundwater flow to streams and time to recovery following the drought. Results and implications are presented in a paper submitted to Geophysical Research Letters titled, "The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought" by Rosemary WH. Carroll, Andrew H. Manning and Kenneth H Williams. A Readme.txt file provides instructions on how to download all model files and execute each model scenario. In addition to the GSFLOW output/prms/copper_drought.csv file containing daily basin water stores and fluxes (refer to GSFLOW manual) and the output/prms/copper_drought_statvar.dat file with output defined in the gsflow3.control file (refer to GSFLOW Manual), output files also include spatially distributed daily values of total evapotranspiration, canopy evaporation, precipitation, snowfall, infiltration, snow water equivalent, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, sublimation, soil moisture, contributing interflow, water table elevations, changes in groundwater storage, groundwater evapotranspiration, interbasin groundwater flow (limited to the alluvium below the stream outlet), and surface-groundwater exchanges within the river system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of CO 2 on the water slip flow at silica surfaces for nanometer slit pores of talc

In our previous study, Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulated water flow with no dissolved gas in nanometer slit pores of the hydrophobic talc surfaces revealed a slip length of about 0.5 nm, which is close to the size of “water exclusion zone” but much less than experimental slip length. Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) imaging confirmed the presence of pancake shape nanobubbles at the hydrophobic talc (001) surface (size from tens to hundreds of nanometers). The effect of CO 2 on water slip flow in talc nanopores is reported to reveal the importance of dissolved gas for confined fluid flow. MD simulated 7 nm CO 2 nanobubbles were found to attach and spread at the talc (001) surface, consistent with the AFM observation. Simulated CO 2 saturated water flow in the slit pores of talc (001) surfaces predicted the generation of CO 2 nanobubbles at the end of the slit pore, due to the stabilization of a CO 2 film at the talc (001) surfaces and a water barrier at the edge surfaces of talc. A “critical thickness” of about 1.5 nm was found for CO 2 nanobubbles to be stabilized at the end of the talc (001) surface. With 1.5 nm CO 2 nanobubbles at the talc (001) surface of a 6 nm slit pore, a water slip length of 1.8 nm was determined. Furthermore, the nanometer slit pore simulations with dissolved CO 2 in water revealed an increased slip length. It is expected that an increased slip length value would be found with an increased CO 2 film thickness.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes

Abstract Soil water flow, particularly preferential flow (PF), is a critical control on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including groundwater recharge, contaminant transport, and carbon cycling. However, it remains challenging to predict PF occurrence across large environmental gradients. Here, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to estimate event‐scale soil water flow velocity and the probability of PF occurrence using high‐frequency soil moisture and precipitation data from 33 sites across the National Ecological Observatory Network. The model demonstrated high skill in predicting the binary occurrence of PF (91% F1‐score; 85% accuracy) but the performance was limited in predicting soil water velocity ( R 2 = 0.31). We found that precipitation characteristics (duration, volume, and intensity) were the most important predictors for soil water velocity. Among the non‐precipitation event variables, sand content showed relatively high predictive skill, though differences among non‐event climate variables were generally modest. Lower sand content was associated with increased predicted soil water velocity, a finding that highlights the role of soil structure in producing more non‐uniform flow, which contrasts with traditional uniform flow models. Projecting a reduced DL model under both moderate and high‐emissions future climate scenarios (2060–2099 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we found ∼7.3% increase under RCP4.5 and ∼15% under RCP8.5 of soil water velocities compared to the historical simulation, while modeled likelihood of PF changed little. These findings suggest climate change is not making PF more frequent, but it is making existing PF pathways more efficient with important consequences for associated nutrient and contaminant transport under climate change. Plain Language Summary Water movement in soil is critical for water quality. While often modeled as a uniform flow process, in reality water moves rapidly through cracks and burrows in what is called “preferential flow” (PF), which limits natural filtration and can transport pollutants. We developed a deep learning model, trained on data from 33 U.S. sites, to predict when and how fast this PF occurs based on precipitation, soil, and climate data. The model showed that precipitation characteristics (duration, intensity, volume) were the most important predictors of PF. Lower soil sand content/higher clay content was associated with faster water flow, likely due to clay soils forming aggregates and cracks that water moves through rather than infiltrating uniformly. Further analyses based on climate projections suggest that the speed at which PF occurs will become more rapid under future climate scenarios compared to historical simulation. This highlights the need to represent PF in soil water models when assessing future water quality. Key Points The effect of precipitation peak intensity on soil water velocities declined with increasing precipitation intensity Antecedent soil moisture failed to predict preferential flow (PF), contrasting the high predictive power of sand content Climate predictions suggest that soil water velocities through PF paths will increase ∼15% by 2099

Li, Bonan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ubiquity and Causes of Soil Water Preferential Flow Across 17 Ecoregions

Abstract Preferential flow (PF) in soil causes the rapid transport of water, nutrients, and contaminants into the subsurface, influencing groundwater recharge and streamflow. Data scarcity has hindered the quantification of PF occurrence and the identification of its drivers across diverse ecoregions. We address this gap by analyzing high‐frequency, multi‐depth soil moisture data across 17 ecoregions in the USA, using ∼1,500 sensors at 40 sites. We discovered that PF is widespread, with sites experiencing PF in up to 60% of rainfall events ≥2 mm. Multiple approaches consistently show that PF is more likely to occur with increased peak rainfall intensity, finer textured material, low soil moisture variability, humid climate, and higher net primary productivity. This suggests that PF patterns could shift with projected climate changes, increasing uncertainty in predictions of groundwater recharge, water quality, and streamflow generation. Plain Language Summary Water can bypass part of the soil's matrix through a process called preferential flow (PF). This quick transport of water through the soil brings with it nutrients and contaminants and eventually makes it to groundwater and streams. To ensure ample amounts of good quality groundwater and surface water we need to understand when and where PF occurs. We inferred when PF occurred at 40 different sites across 17 ecoregions in the USA using soil moisture and rainfall data. We found that PF happened at all sites and in up to 60% of rainfall events ≥2 mm. Preferential flow was most likely at sites with high rainfall intensities, high clay content in soils, low variability in soil moisture, and high vegetation productivity. As rainfall intensities are predicted to increase due to climate change and vegetation becomes more productive, PF occurrence becomes more important for predicting groundwater recharge, water quality, and streamflow generation. Key Points Preferential flow (PF) is ubiquitous across the USA and occurs in up to 60% of all rainfall events ≥2 mm Rainfall intensity, soil texture, and antecedent soil moisture emerge as critical in generating PF across diverse ecoregions Two different PF detection approaches show similar relationships between key drivers and occurrence of PF

Li, Bonan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Industrial Conduit Hydropower Opportunities in the United States: Scoping Assessment

Industrial conduit hydropower involves generating electricity from flowing water in existing industrial water supply, process flow, or wastewater discharges. The broader range of conduit hydropower involves powering existing water infrastructure in municipal, industrial, or agricultural systems. Whereas municipal and agricultural water systems have been retrofitted somewhat broadly in the United States, there are very few examples of industrial conduit hydropower. As stated in Kao et al. (2022), “conduit hydropower opportunities associated with industrial conduits are the least understood […] industrial developments are likely to be particularly efficient and cost-effective since they are typically eligible for on-site net-metering.” Therefore, additional insight into industrial opportunities is needed.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dataset: "Widespread Drought-driven Declines in Streamflows and Water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin (1998-2022)"

This data package contains the associated data and scripts for Nagamoto, E., Ombadi, M., Ciulla, F. et al. Widespread drought-driven declines in streamflows and water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin during 1998-2022. Commun Earth Environ 7, 734 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03890-5. This purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of the 21st century drought on water quantity and quality at catchments throughout the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). We used stream flow, water temperature, specific conductance, air temperature, precipitation, and catchment attribute data for over 200 sites in the UCRB, collected from the National Water Information System using Basin3D (Varadharajan, 2023), GAGESII (Falcone, 2010), and the Google Earth Engine. We identified years of severe drought between 1998 and 2022 using the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), then calculated the relative change percentage of the stream flow, water temperature, and specific conductance from drought versus non-drought years. We used the attribute information from GAGESII to investigate what physical traits of catchments are associated streamflow vulnerability (greater relative change) or resilience to drought. We used land cover data from the National Land Cover Database (USGS, 2024) to assess any changes to physical attributes that may not be represented in the static attributes information in GAGESII. To increase data availability, we modeled stream temperature using methods from Willard, 2023. While the study period is water years 1998 to 2022, the raw water quantity and quality data extends to 1950 and the meteorological data extends to 1980. The data and code can be downloaded via the UCRB_drought.zip. Within the zip, the files are organized as follows: - INPUTS: Contains all input data used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb - OUTPUTS: Contains all intermediate data created from UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb as well as final products including the calculated Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - climatic_variables: The code used to collect meteorologic data from Google Earth Engine - feature_importance: The code used for the catchment attributes analysis - preprocessing: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb - pyeto: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb - calculations: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impacts.ipynb - plotting: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impacts.ipynb - README.md - UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb: The code used to prep raw data for the analysis - UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impact.ipynb: The code which uses the prepped raw data for analysis, and plots all figures - requirements_ucrb-drought_v2.yml: The requirements file to create a virtual environment and Jupyter Lab kernel to run the code The INPUTS folder is organized into the following major directories and sub-directories. The "RDC_WT_SC_RAW" folder contains raw data for streamflow, water temperature, and specific conductance in a ".h5" file. The "NLCD_RAW" folder contains ".csv" files with annual land cover percentages for counties within the UCRB. The "MET_RAW" folder contains a ".csv" file with monthly meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) for the sites in the UCRB which was obtained from code in the climatic_variables folder. The "GAGESII" folder contains ".csv" files with physical catchment attribute variables for catchments across the country. The "WT_LSTM_data" folder contains ".csv" files with calculated WT (Willard, 2023) and the associated RMSEs. The "Upper_Colorado_River_Basin_Boundary" folder contains geographic data including a shapefile for plotting in the UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb. The "RESERVOIRS_RAW" folder contains ".csv" files for each reservoir in the UCRB with daily reservoir storage. There are also two files in the INPUTS folder that have combined reservoir storage data and reservoir metadata. The OUTPUTS folder is organized into the following major directories and sub-directories. The "RDC_WT_SC_data" folder contains a folder "Water_year" with the associated cleaned data, metadata, and data availability information in ".csv" files, a folder "Median_Relchange" with the relative change comparing drought to non-drought years in ".csv" files, and a folder "Peak95_Min5_Relchange" that has ".csv" files for the relative change in peak (95th %) and minimum (5th %) variables. The "NLCD_data" folder contains the difference in land cover from the beginning to end of the study period and the percentage of the county that is within UCRB bounds can be found in Nagamoto et al (2025)). The "MET_data" folder contains separated monthly air temperature and precipitation data and the calculated PET in ".csv" files. The "SPEI_data" folder contains ".csv" files with calculated SPEI values (one restricted to the study period and the other with information from the entire MET data period). The "Paper_Tables" folder contains two ".csv" files containing site information and data availability and information about the GAGESII trait aggregated categories. The base directory includes the file “flmd.csv” for a list and description of all files and the file “dd.csv” for data dictionaries. Scripts for preprocessing, analysis, and figure generation are located in the associated GitHub repository found at [https://github.com/iNAIADS/drought-impacts/tree/develop/UCRB-drought]. UPDATE 1: Title and code file updated to match submitted manuscript 10-15-2025. UPDATE 2: Code and data files updated to match revised manuscript 3-4-2026. UPDATE 3: Code and data files updated to match revised manuscript 6-7-2026. ** NOTE: DD and FLMD have not been updated yet. UPDATE 4: Added associated Manuscript information and DD and FLMD have been updated. To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX: @misc{nagamoto2025drought, author = {Emily Nagamoto and Fabio Ciulla and Mohammad Ombadi and Jared Willard and Rosemary Carroll and Charuleka Varadharajan}, title = {Dataset: "Widespread Drought-driven Declines in Streamflows and Water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin (1998-2022)"}, year = {2025}, doi = {10.15485/2551894}, publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository}, url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2551894} }

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental study of a tri-functional propane hydronic heat pump

This study investigates the performance of a propane hydronic heat pump system for space cooling, heating, and water heating applications, focusing on various operational conditions, with a total refrigerant charge below 1200 g. Cooling performance was evaluated at different outdoor temperatures, compressor stages (capacity levels), and water flow rates. The results showed that the coefficient of performance (COP) for cooling was higher at lower outdoor temperatures, with peak values exceeding 5.0 under low-stage operation and lower water flow rate. The cooling capacity increased with higher flow rates and compressor stages, reaching 12 kW. Space heating performance, evaluated at ambient temperatures ranging from −8.3 °C to 16.7 °C, revealed a decrease in COP with lower temperatures. However, high-stage operation maintained higher heating capacities even at low temperatures. The system demonstrated high Heating Seasonal Performance Factors (HSPF), exceeding 10.0. For water heating, the COP decreased with lower ambient temperatures and higher supply water temperatures. The system efficiently heated an 189-L water tank, outperforming conventional water heaters, with process COPs exceeding 4.0 under cooling-season conditions. Despite some efficiency loss due to defrosting at low temperatures, the propane heat pump consistently delivered strong performance. Seasonal energy efficiency ratios (SEER) and seasonal heating COP values indicated significant overall efficiency. The study concludes that propane is a promising refrigerant for heat pump systems, with future research needed to future reduce total system charge and optimize system performance through advanced controls and heat exchanger designs.

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reliability and resilience of environmental flows under uncertainty: reconsidering water year types and inconsistent flow requirements in California

Abstract Environmental water allocation in California is a complex legal process involving various government agencies and stakeholders. E-flow requirements can be based on annual runoff typologies called water year types (WYTs), which dictate water volume, timing, and duration. In this study, we examined hydropower licensing documents of the major water and power projects in the Central Sierra Nevada to catalog e-flow requirements by WYT. In this study case, we identify how WYT classification systems and categories vary across and within different basins. Additionally, we assessed the impacts of climate change on hydrology, the frequency of WYTs identified, and the reliability and resilience of e-flows using future projections (2031–2060) of 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs). We then propose a potential adaptation strategy using a 30 year moving percentiles approach to recalculate WYTs. We identified eight WYT classifications systems were identified, and their WYT distributions statistically significantly changes across all GCMs, even though most GCMs indicate no statistically significant change in hydrology. Disparities in future impacts are observed among and within hydropower projects, with some river reaches showing negative impacts on reliability and resilience. The adaptation strategy can generally boost resilience and improve reliability, but simply updating existing WYT thresholds without flexible regulatory frameworks reconsidering WYTs and e-flows thresholds, may not yield substantial improvements. Challenges in managing e-flows in California within regulatory and hydroclimatic contexts are intricate due to the lack of standardized approaches, leading to inconsistencies and potential conflicts among stakeholders, that will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Thus, we emphasize that targeted, site-specific, and adaptive management strategies are crucial, besides the need for a harmonized and consistent approach to defining and applying WYT categories and methods and/or e-flow assessments.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative phase imaging around water vapor microbubbles under pulsed laser illumination

We measured water temperature around a self-oscillating water vapor-rich bubble using diffraction phase microscopy equipped with a pulsed laser. The water vapor-rich bubble, which causes a strong water flow around it, was generated by locally heating degassed water through the photothermal conversion properties of an FeSi2 thin film. The generation of the flow is related to the self-oscillation of the bubble at sub-MHz frequencies and the temperature distribution around it. Here, the refractive index of the surrounding water was measured using a pulsed laser with a 3.5-ns pulse duration, which guarantees a time resolution of less than 1/200 of the oscillation cycle of the bubble. The temperature distribution around the bubble was calculated from the measured refractive index.

Narihira, Kyoshiro [Kyoto University, Japan]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Theoretical model of dielectrophoretic water vapor condensation during multiphase flow of electrically charged water droplets in air

Water droplet growth in air, influenced by vapor diffusion and electrical charging, has significant implications for indoor air quality, cloud formation, and aerosol dynamics. Here, this study presents a comprehensive theoretical model that describes the growth dynamics of electrically charged water droplets under external electric fields, incorporating diffusion, electrostatic, and dielectrophoretic forces to enhance understanding and practical applications in air dehumidification and environmental control. A theoretical model was established to analyze the growth dynamics of the charged water droplets. The approach extended the thermodynamic framework of the Modified Kelvin-Thomson equation by integrating electrostatic and dielectrophoretic effects, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of vapor concentration near the surface of charged droplets. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the roles of droplet size, electric field intensity, surface charge, and vapor concentration on condensation rates. The study progressed beyond the classical diffusion-limited growth of neutral droplets, addressing the behavior of charged droplets in electrohydrodynamic environments. The model highlighted the significance of dielectrophoretic drift flux for dipolar vapor molecules, especially in micron-sized droplets ranging from 10 to 100 µm. Findings demonstrated that, for smaller droplets subjected to elevated electrical charge, average growth rates varied from 0.3 to 1.6 µm/s if the air relative humidity increased from 50 to 100 %. Analytical results are corroborated by numerical simulations, which exhibited strong concordance, thereby validating the proposed theoretical approach. This research introduced an innovative and scalable analytical methodology for electric field-enhanced droplet growth, offering valuable insights into the advancement of energy-efficient air dehumidification, water desalination, and atmospheric water harvesting technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-term socioeconomic trends and climate variability as drivers of virtual water scarcity in China

Water scarcity can have far-reaching sectoral impacts beyond its physical location through the propagation of virtual water flows. Socioeconomic and hydroclimatic changes affect local and virtual water scarcity by altering availability and demand. Yet most studies of this phenomenon focus on volumetric footprints, and the few on water scarcity risk have not examined hydroclimatic variability beyond long-term trends. In this study, we ask how gross domestic product (GDP) and population changes, long-term meteorological trends, sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, and interannual meteorological variability affect water scarcity in China, both locally (through the local water scarcity risk index, LWSR) and remotely (through the virtual water scarcity risk index, VWSR). Counterfactual scenarios were compared in a regression-and-simulation framework, with the socioeconomic and meteorological drivers varying over 1923–2019 and the multi-regional input–output structure staying fixed at 2017. Relative to a 5 year baseline centered on 2017, GDP and population changes have induced a cumulative 17%–50% increase in LWSR and 13%–21% increase in VWSR, outweighing the effect of long-term meteorological trends. phase change in one of two examined SST patterns induce 4%–13% differences in LWSR and 1%–4% differences in VWSR. Interannual meteorological variability induces 10%–20% standard deviations in LWSR and 3%–7% in VWSR. The findings highlight the importance of using longer time series to accurately assess local and virtual water scarcity situations. Water scarcity management should prioritize socioeconomic factors when planning at century-long timescales and prioritize hydroclimatic factors at multidecadal or shorter timescales. water managers should consider interannual variabilities in LWSR and VWSR and plan for potential occurrences of extreme conditions.

climate variability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0

Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to determine water pressure, discharge, and drainage system geometry. While they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between surface melt and ice flow, the number of uncertain model parameters and the computational cost of running models makes it difficult to adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and evaluate uncertainty in model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian process (GP) emulators that make fast predictions with associated uncertainty of subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component (PC) basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for diurnally averaged subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The emulators make predictions ∼ 1000 times faster than GlaDS simulations, with errors <3 % for the water pressure field and ∼ 5 %–9 % for drainage efficiency and configuration. We apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional parameter space by computing variance-based parameter sensitivity indices, finding that three parameters (ice flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio, and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90 % of the variance in modelled water pressure in response to parameter changes. The GP emulator approach described here is well suited to integrating observational data with models to make calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pressure Spike in The LBNF Absorber Core s Gun Drilled Cooling Channel from an Accident Beam Pulse

he LBNF absorber consists of thirteen 6061-T6 aluminum core blocks. The core blocks are water cooled with de-ionized (DI) water which becomes radioactive during beam operations. The cooling water flows through gun-drilled channels in the core blocks. The cooling water is supplied by the LBNF absorber radioactive water (RAW) cooling system which is designed as per ASME B31.3 normal fluid service. An uninhibited beam accident pulse striking the water channels was identified as a credible accident scenario. In this study, it is assumed that the beam pulse hits the absorber directly without interacting with any of the other upstream beamline components. The beam parameters used for the LBNF beam are 120 GeV, 2.4 MW with a 1.2 s cycle time. The accident pulse lasts for 10 µs. The maximum energy is deposited in the 3rd aluminum core block. For the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that the accident pulse strikes the 1 in. ID water channel directly. The analysis here simulates the pressure rise in the water during and after the beam pulse and its effects on the aluminum piping components that deliver water to the core blocks. The weld strengths as determined by the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRDF) and the Allowable Strength Design (ASD) are compared to the forces generated in the weld owing to the pressure spike. A transient structural analysis was used to determine the equivalent membrane, peak, and bending stresses and they were compared to allowable limits.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The EGS Collab project: Outcomes and lessons learned from hydraulic fracture stimulations in crystalline rock at 1.25 and 1.5 km depth

With the goal of better understanding stimulation in crystalline rock for improving enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), the EGS Collab Project performed a series of stimulations and flow tests at 1.25 and 1.5 km depths. The tests were performed in two well-instrumented testbeds in the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, United States. The testbed for Experiment 1 at 1.5 km depth contained two open wells for injection and production and six instrumented monitoring wells surrounding the targeted stimulation zone. Four multi-step stimulation tests targeting hydraulic fracturing and nearly year-long ambient temperature and chilled water flow tests were performed in Experiment 1. The testbed for Experiments 2 and 3 was at 1.25 km depth and contained five open wells in an outwardly fanning five-spot pattern and two fans of well-instrumented monitoring wells surrounding the targeted stimulation zone. Experiment 2 targeted shear stimulation, and Experiment 3 targeted low-flow, high-flow, and oscillating pressure stimulation strategies. Hydraulic fracturing was successful in Experiments 1 and 3 in generating a connected system wherein injected water could be collected. However, the resulting flow was distributed dynamically, and not entirely collected at the anticipated production well. Thermal breakthrough was not observed in the production well, but that could have been masked by the Joule-Thomson effect. Shear stimulation in Experiment 2 did not occur - despite attempting to pressurize the fractures most likely to shear - because of the inability to inject water into a mostly-healed fracture, and the low shear-to-normal stress ratio. The EGS Collab experiments are described to provide a background for lessons learned on topics including induced seismicity, the correlation between seismicity and permeability, distributed and dynamic flow systems, thermoelastic and pressure effects, shear stimulation, local geology, thermal breakthrough, monitoring stimulation, grouting boreholes, modeling, and system management.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental investigation of flow distribution in enhanced geothermal systems with deep eutectic solvent

Geothermal energy has been recognized as a valuable alternative to fossil fuels and nuclear power, as it is renewable and reliable. Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGSs) have the potential to expand geothermal energy production by enabling access to previously untapped geothermal resources. Geothermal short-circuiting poses a significant challenge to EGS development, leading to reduced heat extraction. Deep Eutectic Solvent (DES) exhibits favorable thermal and rheological properties, making it a candidate for geothermal applications. Here, this paper examines Choline Chloride-Based Deep Eutectic Solvent (DES) as a working fluid in geothermal applications and its potential to mitigate geothermal short-circuiting. Hydraulic experiments using a dual fracture flow loop were conducted at high temperatures. The results showed that DES exhibited higher differential pressure behavior compared to water. Flow distribution results revealed that DES enhances flow allocation within the small fracture, particularly when a temperature difference exists between fractures. Specifically, DES increased flow distribution by an average of 11% when the temperature difference was 85°C, and by 13% when the difference was 45°C, relative to water. These findings suggest that DES responds to thermal fracture differences, making it a potential remedy to address geothermal short-circuiting.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

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