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At least 19 records

Weapon Systems Risk-Assessment Tool Review

To anticipate, and potentially mitigate, future problems in aging weapon systems, four unique riskassessment techniques were analyzed, including root-cause analysis tools, six-sigma problemsolving approaches, and lean six-sigma tools. Identifying the most efficient process, or tool, is crucial for successful application to current and future weapon systems, subsystems, and components. The following processes were reviewed: Fault Tree Analysis, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, Bow-Tie Analysis, and Hazard and Operability Study. A systematic assessment was performed to determine the most desirable method, and included investigating qualitative versus quantitative characteristics, scope, process durations, advantages, and limitations. Presented results will outline the study findings and further illustrate a capacity to identify future issues and/or concerns, and ultimately, reduce risk.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

SNL will be able to provide well-calibrated models to weapons systems analysts by integrating an engine for constitutive model calibration with the GRANTA materials database

Researchers at Sandia National Laboratories have integrated the GRANTA materials database with the MatCal calibration engine to calibrate material models from characterization data. GRANTA is gaining acceptance across the NNSA Tri-lab complex and is being populated with weapons-specific test data by Sandia experimentalists. To use that data to create material models for use by weapons systems analysts, MatCal has been enabled import calibration data and test conditions from GRANTA to quickly and reproducibly produce a calibrated set of parameters for a given constitutive model. The team is currently working to store the parameters characterizing material behavior in GRANTA to make them accessible by all weapons analysts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Xyce Case Study

With the elimination of underground nuclear testing and declining defense budgets, science-based stockpile stewardship requires increased reliance on high performance modeling and simulation of weapon systems. Today's weapon systems are comprised of various electrical components and systems. As a result, there is a need for tools that will allow the use of massively parallel modeling and simulation techniques on high performance computers in existing and future weapons' electrical systems models. The Xyce Parallel Electronic Simulator is a SPICE (Simulation Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis)- compatible circuit simulator designed to run on large-scale parallel computing platforms, though it can also execute efficiently on a variety of architectures including single processor workstations. As a mature platform for large-scale parallel circuit simulation, Xyce supports standard capabilities available in commercial simulators, in addition to various devices and models specific to Sandia's needs. Specifically, Xyce aids in the design and verification of electrical and electronic circuits and systems prior to weapons' manufacturing and deployment.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Xyce Case Study

With the elimination of underground nuclear testing and declining defense budgets, science-based stockpile stewardship requires increased reliance on high performance modeling and simulation of weapon systems. Today's weapon systems are comprised of various electrical components and systems. As a result, there is a need for tools that will allow the use of massively parallel modeling and simulation techniques on high performance computers in existing and future weapons' electrical systems models. The Xyce Parallel Electronic Simulator is a SPICE (Simulation Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis)- compatible circuit simulator designed to run on large-scale parallel computing platforms, though it can also execute efficiently on a variety of architectures including single processor workstations. As a mature platform for large-scale parallel circuit simulation, Xyce supports standard capabilities available in commercial simulators, in addition to various devices and models specific to Sandia's needs. Specifically, Xyce aids in the design and verification of electrical and electronic circuits and systems prior to weapons' manufacturing and deployment.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Tommy Morris’ Comments on Nuclear Explosive Safety

Nuclear explosives and weapon systems require special consideration because of their political and military importance, their destructive power, and the potential consequences of an accident. The special consideration translates into specific requirements promulgated by Department of Energy (DOE) O 452.1E “Nuclear Explosive and Weapon Surety,” and Department of Defense (DoD) Directive 3150.02 “DoD Nuclear Weapon System Safety Program.” The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) W-Division Nuclear Explosive Safety Office mission is to coordinate LANL participation in Nuclear Explosive Safety Studies (NESS) and Nuclear Weapon System Safety Studies (NWSS); to provide qualified members and advisors to the studies; to liaise with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the DoD, other national laboratories, the Nevada Test Site, and Pantex Plant with regards to nuclear explosive and weapon system safety. These orders and directives define nuclear detonation as an energy release through a nuclear process, during a period of time on the order of 1 microsecond, in an amount equivalent to the energy released by detonating 4 or more pounds of trinitrotoluene (TNT).

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Non-nuclear Component Signatures for Warhead Dismantlement Confirmation

The verification of warhead dismantlement is expected to be an important component in future arms reduction treaties. Historic approaches developed with future arms control treaty verification in mind often involve intrusive measurements, process monitoring, and/or inspector presence to provide confidence that an authentic warhead has been dismantled. This work explores the possibility of reducing the negative impacts of these invasive approaches while also delivering a method that is more likely to provide non-sensitive data that can be shared with not only other nuclear weapons states but also non-nuclear weapons states partners. This work explores a novel approach for verifying dispositioned non-nuclear weapon components, providing confidence post-dismantlement that a treaty accountable item that was dismantled was in fact a treaty-relevant nuclear weapon system as declared. This method provides an alternative to intrusive inspection processes in nuclear weapons production environments, which would require significant changes to the host’s operational behaviors. It achieves this by identifying intrinsic neutron-induced signatures of non-nuclear components to determine their authenticity and estimate the duration they were exposed within a nuclear weapons system using technologies that are already in use for other national security applications. Intrinsic radiation effects studies are already a part of the stockpile aging and surveillance evaluations. However, none of these technologies and approaches have been previously considered for verification applications of non-nuclear component disposition. In this report, we introduce modeling studies that have been used to identify the most promising candidate parts and materials with signatures that are measurable and actionable. These models have been validated with laboratory measurements of signatures induced by the exposure of candidate materials to neutrons over a range of times. Predictive modeling then demonstrates the methodology for estimating exposure times and/or limits. Laboratory measurements of authentic non-nuclear parts from a dismantled warhead demonstrate the feasibility of employing these signature measurements. And finally, a concept of operations (CONOPS) for the potential use of this methodology is presented.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Measuring the robustness of predictive probability for early stopping in two-group comparisons

We report physical experiments are often expensive and time-consuming. Test engineers must certify the compatibility of aircraft and their weapon systems before they can be deployed in the field, but the testing required is time consuming, expensive, and resource limited. Adopting Bayesian adaptive designs is a promising way to borrow from the successes seen in the clinical trials domain. The use of predictive probability (PP) to stop testing early and make faster decisions is particularly appealing given the aforementioned constraints. Given the high-consequence nature of the tests performed in the national security space, a strong understanding of new methods is required before being deployed. Although PP has been thoroughly studied for binary data, there is less work with continuous data, where many reliability studies are interested in certifying the specification limits of components. A simulation study evaluating the robustness of this approach indicates early stopping based on PP is reasonably robust to minor assumption violations, especially when only a few interim analyses are conducted. The simulation study also compares PP to conditional power, showing its relative strengths and weaknesses. A post-hoc analysis exploring whether release requirements of a weapon system from an aircraft are within specification with desired reliability resulted in stopping the experiment early and saving 33% of the experimental runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Q-18: Advanced System Development Fact Sheet

Q-18 provides Systems and Design Engineering for Future Weapons Systems and Technology up to Phase 3 or 6.3 with emphasis on improved performance, safety, produceability and agility of the future stockpile. The group regulars engages and partners with DoD customers, NNSA as well as other divisions across the LANL campus including to complete its mission. The group is forward leaning and provides Future System and System Agnostic Design and System Engineering support to a wide range of experiments from internally fielded technology tests to hydrodynamic and subcritical experiments including fabrication for small component level to full scale prototypes and test articles, test article assembly, and mechanical and electrical design.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Sierra/SD – Verification Test Manual – 5.22

Verification and validation (V&V) of scientific computing programs are important at Sandia National Labs due to the expanding role of computational simulation in managing the United States nuclear stockpile. The complexities of structural response calculations used to analyze physical problems, the varieties of codes applied to the calculations, and the importance of accurate predictions when assessing field conditions demand confidence in the consistency and accuracy of computer codes. Confidence in the accuracy of the predictions arising from computer simulations must ultimately be gained through verification and validation. The Sierra salinas structural dynamics analysis code, Sierra/SD, is used at the DOE Laboratories, and in several DOD projects. The roles of Sierra/SD in the qualification of weapon systems and components for normal and hostile environments throughout the Stockpile-to-Target Sequence include to, • Redesign weapon components. • Certify weapon components and systems for target environments such as hypersonic vehicles. • Certify that components will survive the thermal mechanical shock loads associated with hostile environments. • Evaluate current stockpile issues, including issues associated with uncertainty quantification. • Address many other problems that are encountered in stockpile management. The Sierra/SD verification plan is described, and an evolving set of key verification tests are described in detail. The verification tests ensure the correctness of the mathematics and numerical algorithms associated with functionality describing engineering phenomena. Development is in accordance with a set of tailored Software Quality Engineering (SQE) practices. SQE practices guide the overall verification and validation effort.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Revealing conductivity of p-type delta layer systems for novel computing applications

This project uses a quantum simulation technique to reveal the true conducting properties of novel atomic precision advanced manufacturing materials. With Moore's law approaching the limit of scaling for the CMOS technology, it is crucial to provide the best computing power and resources to National Security missions. Atomic precision advanced manufacturing-based computing systems can become the key to the design, use, and security of modern weapon systems, critical infrastructure, and communications. We will utilize the state-of-the-art computational methodology to create a predictive simulator for p-type atomic precision advanced manufacturing systems, which may also find applications in counterfeit detection and anti-tamper.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program: FY23 Annual Progress Report- Compendium of Project Summaries

The project summaries are organized by Capability Pillar – Complex Natural and Engineered Systems, Information Science and Technology, Materials for the Future, Nuclear and Particle Futures, Science of Signatures, and Weapons Systems. Project summaries for continuing projects appear first, followed by project summaries and technical outcomes for projects that ended in FY23.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Detection of Damage Inducing Impact Events in Vibration Test Fixtures Using Holder Exponents

The Shock and Vibration team within the Test Engineering group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) aids in the development and qualification of weapon systems for the United States Department of Energy (DOE). Performing tests that replicate shock and vibration environments representative of a weapon’s lifetime is critical in ensuring safety, survivability, and reliability. A key factor in shock and vibration testing is accurate representation of the weapon’s boundary conditions in its end use configuration. The boundary conditions representative of a reentry body in flight are particularly difficult to replicate on an electrodynamic shaker. When executing shock and vibration tests on a reentry body, two system axes are tested with the system in a cantilevered configuration. This cantilevered testing configuration results in a moment load being applied to the system while undergoing vibration environments. A special fixture, known as the Flex-Web, was developed to decouple this moment load from the reentry body in order to more accurately represent real world boundary conditions while replicating flight environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

When should we care about new technology in the nuclear domain? Assessing emerging technologies impacts on stability

As new and modernized systems are fielded by the U.S. and Russia, and as China expands its nuclear stockpile with 21st century technology, it is important to ask when do new technologies in the nuclear domain actually matter? When do emerging capabilities and replacements of existing systems change the military realities of the world’s nuclear powers and the lived experiences of the people in these countries? Specifically, it is important to consider what are the attributes of emerging weapon systems that may impact nuclear strategic stability, or in even narrower terms, which attributes of newly fielded military systems may make nuclear conflict more likely or less likely? It is through this understanding that policy makers, voters, and the broader nuclear weapons community can evaluate when and how to respond to emerging technology while reducing the likelihood of nuclear escalation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Operational and Mission Highlights: A Monthly Summary of Top Achievements October 2022

On Sept. 26, Director Thom Mason signed the Laboratory’s annual assessment of four of the weapons systems in our nation’s nuclear stockpile: the B61 family of bombs and the W76, the W78 and the W88 warheads. Addressed to the secretary of energy, the secretary of defense and the chair of the Nuclear Weapons Council, this letter informs the president of the United States of our confidence that the stockpile remains safe, secure, and effective now and into the future as a result of our dedicated sustainment and modernization efforts.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Test Information Management System (Report FY 2020 and FY 2021)

Delivery Environments supported work in Fiscal Years 2020 and 2021 to develop the Test Information Management System (TIMS). This effort involved creating a suite of tools consisting of a database and the uploading and downloading scripts. It has been demonstrated that the TIMS database is suitable for archiving raw measurements performed on various measured test articles. The TIMS database has been populated with data from the TRUST projects in FY 20 and FY 21. This included the functional data in the Sensors records as well as metadata stored in records in several other tables. The performed work demonstrated that a database archiving validation test data and integrating it with engineering analysis simulations has a great potential to increase the efficiency, responsiveness, and confidence in the modeling, simulation, and validation efforts for future (and current) weapon systems and assemblies in normal and abnormal environments. In this report, we also discuss how the records belonging to the same project should be arranged, what are the minimum requirements for linking the records using the tabular links, and we provide several recommendations to the projects engineers and the database administrator to improve the TIMS database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Underwater unexploded ordnance discrimination based on intrinsic target polarizabilities – A case study

Seabed unexploded ordnance that resulted partly from the high failure rate among munitions from more than 80 years ago and from decades of military training and testing of weapons systems poses an increasing concern all around the world. Although existing magnetic systems can detect clusters of debris, they are not able to tell whether a munition is still intact requiring special removal (e.g. in situ detonation) or is harmless scrap metal. The marine environment poses unique challenges, and transferring knowledge and approaches from land to a marine environment has not been easy and straightforward. On land, the background soil conductivity is much lower than the conductivity of the unexploded ordnance and the electromagnetic response of a target is essentially the same as that in free space. For those frequencies required for target characterization in the marine environment, the seawater response must be accounted for and removed from the measurements. The system developed for this study uses fields from three orthogonal transmitters to illuminate the target and four three-component receivers to measure the signal arranged in a configuration that inherently cancels the system's response due to the enclosing seawater, the sea–bottom interface and the air–sea interface for shallow deployments. The system was tested as a cued system on land and underwater in San Francisco Bay – it was mounted on a simple platform on top of a support structure that extended 1 m below and allowed the diver to place metal objects to a specific location even in low-visibility conditions. The measurements were stable and repeatable. Furthermore, target responses estimated from marine measurements matched those from land acquisition, confirming that the seawater and air–sea interface responses were removed successfully. Thirty-six channels of normalized induction responses were used for the classification, which was done by estimating the target principal dipole polarizabilities. Our results demonstrated that the system can resolve the intrinsic polarizabilities of the target, with clear distinctions between those of symmetric intact unexploded ordnance and irregular scrap metal. The prototype system was able to classify an object based on its size, shape and metal content and correctly estimate its location and orientation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗