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At least 19 records

Distributed Wind Diffusion Model Overview (Presentation)

Distributed wind market demand is driven by current and future wind price and performance, along with several non-price market factors like financing terms, retail electricity rates and rate structures, future wind incentives, and others. We developed a new distributed wind technology diffusion model for the contiguous United States that combines hourly wind speed data at 200m resolution with high resolution electricity load data for various consumer segments (e.g., residential, commercial, industrial), electricity rates and rate structures for utility service territories, incentive data, and high resolution tree cover. The model first calculates the economics of distributed wind at high spatial resolution for each market segment, and then uses a Bass diffusion framework to estimate the evolution of market demand over time. The model provides a fundamental new tool for characterizing how distributed wind market potential could be impacted by a range of future conditions, such as electricity price escalations, improvements in wind generator performance and installed cost, and new financing structures. This paper describes model methodology and presents sample results for distributed wind market potential in the contiguous U.S. through 2050.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A GENERALIZED TWO-COMPONENT MODEL OF SOLAR WIND TURBULENCE AND AB INITIO DIFFUSION MEAN-FREE PATHS AND DRIFT LENGTHSCALES OF COSMIC RAYS

We extend a two-component model for the evolution of fluctuations in the solar wind plasma so that it is fully three-dimensional (3D) and also coupled self-consistently to the large-scale magnetohydrodynamic equations describing the background solar wind. The two classes of fluctuations considered are a high-frequency parallel-propagating wave-like piece and a low-frequency quasi-two-dimensional component. For both components, the nonlinear dynamics is dominanted by quasi-perpendicular spectral cascades of energy. Driving of the fluctuations by, for example, velocity shear and pickup ions is included. Numerical solutions to the new model are obtained using the Cronos framework, and validated against previous simpler models. Comparing results from the new model with spacecraft measurements, we find improved agreement relative to earlier models that employ prescribed background solar wind fields. Finally, the new results for the wave-like and quasi-two-dimensional fluctuations are used to calculate ab initio diffusion mean-free paths and drift lengthscales for the transport of cosmic rays in the turbulent solar wind.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Direct numerical simulation of a turbulent methane/air flame impinged by a sub-breakdown electric field

Here, the effects of an external electric field on a turbulent methane/air diffusion flame are analyzed in this work using direct numerical simulations. The analyzed configuration consists of a temporally evolving mixing layer of air and a mixture of methane and nitrogen at 1 atm that is impinged by an electric field in the direction normal to the mean mixing plane. The combustion and chemi-ionization reactions involved in the flow are modeled using finite-rate chemistry and a reduced reaction scheme consisting of 26 species and 134 reactions. The mass diffusion and ion-wind effects are modeled using a detailed description of the diffusion coefficients and electric mobilities based on kinetic theory. The presented calculations show that the turbulence generated within the mixing layer is mostly unaffected by the applied electric field for the configuration under exam. In fact, the electric body force is developed away from the mixing region where the flow is uniform. Conversely, the turbulence is able to introduce very high intermittency in the electrically charged species concentration and, consequently, in the electric body force. Such intermittency will constitute a challenge in the future formulation of combustion models that take into account ion-wind effects.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Analysis of vibrations of the National Transonic Facility model support system using a 3-D aeroelastic code

Vibrations of the National Transonic Facility model support system were analyzed using Computational Aeroelasticity Program-Transonic Small Disturbance, a three-dimensional transonic small disturbance code designed for aeroelastic analysis of complete aircraft. The model support system was represented as a tunnel-spanning flexible wing whose structural properties were obtained from measured responses. Aeroelastic transients were calculated and analyzed to obtain modal stability characteristics. The results show that there is tendency to exhibit a hump mode instability in one of the modes, and that there are other weakly damped or unstable modes. Most of the motion is in the aft section of the model support system. The close proximity of the solid wind-tunnel diffuser side walls to the model support system is shown to have adverse effects on its aeroelastic stability characteristics. When the effects of the wind-tunnel walls are modeled, the analyses indicate the presence of wind-tunnel resonance modes which are not present when free-air boundary conditions are used.

Whitlow, Woodrow, Jr.↗

A baseline for ensemble-based, time-resolved inflow reconstruction for a single turbine using large-eddy simulations and latent diffusion models

We are interested in reconstructing winds flowing through a turbine on a second-by-second basis over a 10 min window. Previously, we developed a machine learning algorithm that takes in a snapshot of wind speed measurements and generates ensembles of three-dimensional wind field estimates. Here, we use these estimates as initial conditions in large-eddy simulations and reconstruct atmospheric and turbine response dynamic quantities in a synthetic field campaign. In doing so, we establish a baseline for model validation that future time-aware data assimilation techniques will be compared to. In turbine-free case studies, ground truth wind speeds consistently fall within our estimated wind speed distribution for the first 100 s after the simulation start. In simulations with turbines, the wind estimates show a small bias of 0.10 m s 1 and good correlation of 0.80 during the first 100 s. During this window, our estimates of the Blade 1 bending moment and generator power typically span the ground truth, with the estimate of the former performing better overall. In summary, this approach shows promise as a stand-alone technique for reconstructing real-world inflow and turbine dynamics in 1-2 min windows and as a foundation for future time-aware data assimilation techniques.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A model for Jupiter's proton radiation belt

A model for electron and proton energy and density in Jupiter's radiation belt is proposed. It is assumed that electrons diffuse inward from the solar wind. The Davis and Chang diffusion model, in which there is a very steep L-shell dependence in density and energy, is scaled outwards from the peak of the belts at about 1.5 to 2 Jupiter radii to the magnetopause as defined by the magnetic moment. The energetic electron density is calculated to be one billionth of the density in the solar wind, and that is assumed to be the trapping ratio of Jupiter's synchrotron belts. It is further assumed that the same figures apply to protons. The flux density at 80 MHz was measured by the Culgoora ring to be identical to that at 3000 MHz, implying a constant flux density of the synchrotron source of over 20 or 30 to 1 in frequency. It is suggested that the synchrotron spectrum is flat over more than an order of magnitude of frequency. Jupiter is an enormous synchrotron source and has a strong magnetic field, causing long diffusion times for electrons in the magnetosphere.

Warwick, J.↗

Crustal evolution inferred from Apollo magnetic measurements

The topology of lunar remanent fields is investigated by analyzing simultaneous magnetometer and solar wind spectrometer data. The diffusion model proposed by Vanyan (1977) to describe the field-plasma interaction at the lunar surface is extended to describe the interaction with fields characterized by two scale lengths, and the extended model is compared with data from three Apollo landing sites (Apollo 12, 15 and 16) with crustal fields of differing intensity and topology. Local remanent field properties from this analysis are compared with high spatial resolution magnetic maps obtained from the electron reflection experiment. It is concluded that remanent fields over most of the lunar surface are characterized by spatial variations as small as a few kilometers. Large regions (50 to 100 km) of the lunar crust were probably uniformly magnetized early in the evolution of the crust. Smaller scale (5 to 10 km) magnetic sources close to the surface were left by bombardment and subsequent gardening of the upper layers of these magnetized regions. The small scale sized remanent fields of about 100 gammas are measured by surface experiments, whereas the larger scale sized fields of about 0.1 gammas are measured by the orbiting subsatellite experiments.

Dyal, P.↗

The global distribution of thermospheric odd nitrogen for solstice conditions during solar cycle minimum

A two-dimensional model of odd nitrogen in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere is described. The global distributions of nitric oxide and atomic nitrogen are calculated for the solstice period for quiet and moderate magnetic activity during the solar minimum period. The effect of thermospheric transport by winds is investigated along with the importance of particle-induced ionization in the auroral zones. The results are compared with rocket and satellite measurements, and the sensitivity of the model to eddy diffusion and neutral winds is investigated. Downward fluxes of NO into the mesosphere are given, and their importance for stratospheric ozone is discussed. The results show that the summer-to-winter pole meridional circulation transports both NO and N(S-4) across the solar terminator into the polar night region where there is a downward vertical transport toward the mesosphere. The model shows that odd nitrogen densities at high winter latitudes are entirely controlled by particle precipitation and transport processes.

Gerard, J.-C.↗

Effects of drift on the transport of cosmic rays. VI - A three-dimensional model including diffusion

The first results are presented from a series of computer simulations of the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays using a full three-dimensional model which incorporates all known important effects on particle transport, particle drifts, convection with the solar wind, energy loss, and anisotropic diffusion. The model is time-independent in the coordinate frame rotating with the sun, so corotating effects can be studied. Modulation in an interplanetary magnetic field model is considered in which the current sheet separating the northern and southern solar hemispheres is warped and corotating with the sun. The amplitude of the warp is varied to simulate possible solar cycle variation of the magnetic field. Substantial effects due to the warp of the current sheet are found. Comparison of the model results with various data is presented. Among other things, it is shown that the intensity may decrease away from the current sheet for both signs of the magnetic field, as suggested by recent observations, and in contrast with inferences from earlier, more approximate calculations.

Kota, J.↗

Variations in eddy diffusion and associated transport processes

Variation in the eddy diffusion coefficient constitutes a momentum source. This variation near the turbopause affects both the composition and the wind and temperature fields of the thermosphere. Two types of calculations are carried out, for horizontal winds considered self-consistently in a three-dimensional dynamic model and horizontal winds artificially suppressed to simulate a one-dimensional model. Momentum transfer associated with variations in eddy diffusion coefficients represents the source function in the analysis presented. It is shown that for long-term variations in the thermosphere, the compositional dependence on variations in eddy diffusion coefficients can be entirely different in one and three dimensional models with horizontal winds included. Horizontal winds can greatly reduce the effects of eddy diffusion in general and the ratio between He and O amplitudes in particular.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Tools for Assessing Performance Project: FY2021 Quarter 4 Report

The rotatable building located at Texas Tech’s Reese Technology Center is approximately 14 m wide (width being defined as more normal to the wind than parallel), 9 m long (aligned more with the wind than perpendicular), and 4 m tall. By placing 29 sonic anemometers downwind of the building, see Fig. 1, this facility provided a chance to collect data concerning both the wake velocity deficit distribution in the downstream and crosssteam directions (relative to the mean wind) behind an isolated building. A preliminary comparison between this data and the recently- developed fast-running diffusive wake model, which was developed based on wind tunnel and LES (performed with JOULES) simulations, for the purpose of either validating this model of understanding potential persistent differences between the idealized wind tunnel or LES conditions and those of full-scale real world phenomena. For this preliminary exploration, we utilized the diffusive wake model implemented in the QUIC model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Diffusive shock acceleration - Comparison of a unified shock model to bow shock observations

A comparison is made between recent AMPTE/IRM observations of diffuse ions detected upstream of the earth's bow shock when the interplanetary magnetic field was nearly parallel to the solar wind direction and a known collisionless quasi-parallel shock model. These observations, which provide the proton spectrum for all of velocity space, give a direct measure of the shock acceleration efficiency and show how thermal solar winds are injected into the diffusive shock acceleration mechanism. The model accurately describes the proton spectrum; moreover, it predicts the shock structure, the complete particle spectrum, the relative velocity distributions of different ion species in the down stream region, and the enhancement of heavy ions over protons relative to the unshocked solar wind.

Ellison, Donald C.↗

Cosmic-ray transport and gamma-ray emission in supernova shells

The mixing and transport of cosmic rays accelerated by a pulsar inside an expanding supernova remnant are examined, and the resulting high-energy gamma-ray emission from nuclear interactions of these accelerated particles in the shell is investigated. Rayleigh-Taylor instability at the interface between a pulsar wind cavity and the inner supernova envelope is assumed to be the mixing mechanism. The analysis is applied to the model of Gaisser, Harding, and Stanev (1987), where protons are accelerated at the reverse shock in the pulsar wind. The instability time-scale is estimated from the dynamics of the pulsar wind cavity, and model the injection, diffusion, and interaction of protons in the shell. The resulting gamma-ray flux is lower than previous estimates due to proton adiabatic losses in the expanding pulsar wind. The protons mix and diffuse only into the innermost regions of the envelope before interacting. Energy-dependent diffusion causes the higher energy gamma-ray light curves to decay faster than those at lower energy.

Harding, A. K.↗

The electron diffusion coefficient in Jupiter's magnetosphere

A steady-state model of Jupiter's electron radiation belt is developed. The model includes injection from the solar wind, radial diffusion, energy degradation by synchrotron radiation, and absorption at Jupiter's surface. A diffusion coefficient of the form D sub RR/R sub J squared = k times R to the m-th power is assumed, and then observed data on synchrotron radiation are used to fit the model. The free parameters determined from this fit are m = 1.95 plus or minus 0.5, k = 1.7 plus or minus 0.5 x 10 to the 9th power per sec, and the magnetic moment of injected particles equals 770 plus or minus 300 MeV/G. The value of m shows quite clearly that the diffusion is not caused by magnetic pumping by a variable solar wind or by a fluctuating convection electric field. The process might be field line exchange driven by atmospheric-ionospheric winds; our diffusion coefficient has roughly the same radial dependence but is considerably smaller in magnitude than the upper bound diffusion coefficients recently suggested for this process by Brice and McDonough (1973) and Jacques and Davis (1972).

Birmingham, T.↗

Analysis of aeroelastic and resonance responses of a wind tunnel model support system

Vibrations of the National Transonic Facility model support system were analyzed using CAP-TSD (Computational Aeroelasticity Program-Transonic Small Disturbance), a three-dimensional transonic small disturbance potential code designed for aeroelastic analysis of complex configurations. The model support system was represented as a tunnel-spanning flexible wing whose structural properties were obtained from measured responses. Aeroelastic transients were calculated, assuming no structural damping, and analyzed to obtain modal stability characteristics. The results showed that there is a tendency toward a hump mode instability in one of the modes and that there are other weakly damped or unstable modes. The close proximity of the solid wind-tunnel diffuser side walls to the model support system was shown to have adverse effects on its aeroelastic stability characteristics. When the effects of the wind-tunnel walls were modeled, the analyses indicated the presence of wind-tunnel resonance modes which were not present when free-air boundary conditions were used.

Whitlow, Woodrow, Jr.↗

Tropical Cyclone Super Resolution using conditional diffusion denoising probabilistic model from mesoscale simulation to LES

Accurate modeling of tropical cyclone wind fields is essential for the design, risk assessment, and operational planning of offshore energy infrastructure. While mesoscale simulations are widely used thanks to their computational efficiency, they lack the necessary resolution to capture key features such as wind shear and veer profiles as well as the distribution turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). High-fidelity large-eddy simulation (LES) models on the other hand, can resolve turbulent structures and provide a more accurate representation of the complex wind field, albeit at a higher computational cost. To address this modeling gap, we introduce a two-part generative framework to enhance the resolution and physics-capturing ability of mesoscale simulations. First, a reduced-order model based on Karhunen–Loève (KL) decomposition is used to extract dominant spatial modes from one-dimensional mean wind profiles. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) is trained to map mesoscale mode weights to their LES counterparts, enabling accurate reconstruction of vertical velocity profiles. Second, a conditional Diffusion Denoising Probabilistic Model (DDPM) is developed to super-resolve coarse and low-fidelity mesoscale velocity fields, recovering fine-scale turbulence structures and stress distributions. The framework is evaluated across different tropical cyclone intensity categories defined by the Saffir–Simpson scale and demonstrates strong performance in both interpolation and extrapolation tasks. The generated fields accurately reproduce spatial coherence, stress distributions, and spectral energy characteristics observed in LES data. By bridging the fidelity gap between mesoscale and LES outputs, this approach offers a scalable, data-driven solution for enhancing the representation of tropical cyclone wind fields, enabling more robust offshore energy infrastructure systems design in tropical-cyclone-prone areas.

17 WIND ENERGY↗