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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and landatmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

Cold Spells↗
NASA NTRS1981

A further study of the annual cycle of the zonal mean circulation in the middle atmosphere

The influence on the stratospheric mean circulation of planetary wavenumber 2 disturbances excited by steady forcing at the 100 mb level is investigated using a global semi-spectral primitive equation model. There exists a critical forcing amplitude below which the waves have little effect on the mean flow, while above which the waves produce subseasonal time scale vacillations in the winter hemisphere, including both major and minor warmings. Wave transience induced by the evolving mean flow distribution is responsible for generating the vacillations, while thermal damping serves to reduce the wave-driven changes in the mean flow.

Holton, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Global variations of zonal mean ozone during stratospheric warming events

Eight years of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data are examined to study zonal mean variations associated with stratospheric planetary wave (warming) events. These fluctuations are found to be nearly global in extent, with relatively large variations in the tropics, and coherent signatures reaching up to 50 deg in the opposite (summer) hemisphere. These ozone variations are a manifestation of the global circulation cells associated with stratospheric warming events; the ozone responds dynamically in the lower stratosphere to transport, and photochemically in the upper stratosphere to the circulation-induced temperature changes. The observed ozone variations in the tropics are of particular interest because transport is dominated by zonal-mean vertical motions (eddy flux divergences and mean meridional transports are negligible), and hence, substantial simplifications to the governing equations occur. The response of the atmosphere to these impulsive circulation changes provides a situation for robust estimates of the ozone-temperature sensitivity in the upper stratosphere.

Randel, William J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Enhancement of wave growth for warm plasmas with a high-energy tail distribution

The classical linear theory of electromagnetic wave growth in a warm plasma is considered for waves propagating parallel to a uniform ambient magnetic field. Wave-growth rates are calculated for ion-driven right-hand mode waves for Kappa and Maxwellian particle distribution functions and for various values of the spectral index, the temperature anisotropy, and the ratio of plasma pressure to magnetic pressure appropriate to the solar wind. When the anisotropy is low the wave growth is limited to frequencies below the proton gyrofrequency and the growth rate increases dramatically as the spectral index is reduced. The growth rate for any Kappa distribution greatly exceeds that for a Maxwellian with the same bulk properties. For large thermal anisotropy the growth rate from either distribution is greatly enhanced. The growth rates from a Kappa distribution are generally larger than for a Maxwellian distribution, and significant wave growth occurs over a broader range of frequencies.

Thorne, Richard M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Microplankton species assemblages at the Scripps Pier from March to November 1983 during the 1982-1984 El Nino event

A semiweekly sampling program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography pier was begun in 1983 during an El Nino event. Microplankton data for March to November 1983 show a temporal sequence of species assemblages of the 24 important taxa, with a residence time of 1 to 4 weeks. From March to early September, the assemblages consisted of typical neritic taxa. From mid-September to mid-November, the presence of oceanic warm-wave species was associated with positive temperature anomalies characteristic of the El Nino condition. During the period studied numerical abundances were low.

Reid, F. M. H.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Microplankton species assemblages at the Scripps Pier from March to November 1983 during the 1982-1984 El Nino event

A semiweekly sampling program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Pier was begun in 1983 during an El Nino event. Microplankton data for March to November 1983 show a temporal sequence of species assemblages of the 24 important taxa, with a residence time of 1 to 4 weeks. From March to early September, the assemblages consisted of typial neritic taxa. From mid-September to mid-November, the presence of oceanic warm-wave species was associated with positive temperature anomalies characteristic of the El Nino condition. During the period studied numerical abundances were low.

Reid, F. M. H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Constraining the Models' Response of Tropical Clouds to SST Forcings Using CALIPSO Observations

Here we present preliminary results from the analysis of the low cloud cover (LCC) and cloud radiative effect (CRE) interannual changes in response to sea surface temperature (SST) forcings in two GISS climate models, and 12 other climate models. We further classify them as a function of their ability to reproduce the vertical structure of the cloud response to SST change against 10 years of CALIPSO observations: “the constrained models, which match the observation constraint, and the unconstrained models”. The constrained models replicate the observed interannual LCC change particularly well (ΔLCC(sub con)=-3.49 ±1.01 %/K vs. ΔLCC(sub obs)=-3.59 ±0.28 %/K) as opposed to the unconstrained models, which largely underestimate it (ΔLCC(sub unc) = -1.32 ± 1.28 %/K). As a result, the amount of short-wave warming simulated by the constrained models (ΔCRE(sub con)=2.60 ±1.13 W/m2/K) is in better agreement with the observations (ΔCRE(sub obs)=3.05 ±0.28 W/m2/K) than the unconstrained models (ΔCRE(sub con)=0.87 ±2.63 W/m2/K). Depending on the type of low cloud, the observed relationship between cloud/radiation and surface temperature varies. Over the stratocumulus regions, increasing SSTs generate higher cloud top height along with a large decrease of the cloud fraction below as opposed to a slight decrease of the cloud fraction at each level over the trade cumulus regions. Our results suggest that the models must generate sustainable stratocumulus decks and moist processes in the planetary boundary layer to reproduce these observed features. Future work will focus on defining a method to objectively discriminate these cloud types that can be applied consistently in both the observations and the models.

Cesana, Gregory↗
NASA NTRS1979

On self-consistent waves and their stability in warm plasma. I - Construction of the self-consistent waves

Clemmow's (1974) work is extended to include the case of large-amplitude self-consistent waves in warm plasmas both with and without a constant embedded magnetic field. Attention is given to determining the structure and basic properties of large-amplitude self-consistent waves in a warm plasma in the presence of a constant embedded magnetic field. It is shown that the class of large-amplitude self-consistent waves found by Clemmow for a cold plasma can be extended to allow for a thermal spread in the particles' motions. Some of the interesting variations and dependences of such waves with a constant embedded magnetic field are emphasized.

Lee, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

On self-consistent waves and their stability in warm plasmas. II - Instability of circularly polarized waves both in the presence and the absence of an ambient magnetic field

The stability of a self-consistent, large-amplitude, circularly polarized wave in a warm plasma is investigated. For perturbations to the system propagating normal to the plane of circular polarization, a dispersion relation is derived employing an expansion in the nonlinear wave amplitude and the momentum of the plasma particles in the plane of polarization. Instability results both in the absence and presence of a large-scale magnetic field with a growth rate of the order of the nonlinear wave amplitude.

Lee, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Propagation and selective transmission of internal gravity waves in a sudden warming

Longitudinally asymmetric features of gravity wave propagation in a sudden warming are examined theoretically, using observed geostrophic wind fields in the stratosphere for three days of winter 1979. It is shown that the wind patterns accompanying a sudden warming act to reduce, but not eliminate, quasi-stationary gravity wave propagation to the mesosphere. The onset of large-amplitude planetary waves leads to the formation of propagating zones and forbidden zones for gravity waves of intermediate horizontal scale (50-200 km). Lateral ray movement and horizontal refraction are secondary but observable effects for these waves. To the extent that these waves are excited isotropically in the troposphere, it is possible to evaluate the direction and magnitude of the average wavevector reaching the mesosphere as follows. Stationary waves with wavevector orthogonal to the local mean flow are selectively absorbed in the stratosphere, implying that for these waves the average wavevector transmitted to the mesosphere is antiparallel to the average of the mean flow orientation extrema in the underlying stratosphere.

Dunkerton, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sub-Seasonal Forecasting of the Stratospheric Wave Events, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, and Their Influence on the Troposphere

Stratospheric wave events and major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are well captured in high-resolution global forecasts out to 10 days. Tropospheric influences of SSW include statistically significant shifts in the storm tracks and associated surface temperature and precipitation pattern changes. Since these events can in turn influence the troposphere on time scales of 30-60 days the ability to predict these events and the subsequent long-term response on time scales beyond 10 days is of interest. Here we examine the prediction of stratospheric wave events and their evolution using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) system. This is a recently released subseasonal to seasonal forecast system, GEOS-S2S version 2.1. Compared to GMAO's previous system, the new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model of the cryosphere, includes additional interactive aerosol model components, and the ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Results are based on a comprehensive series of hindcasts starting from the year 2000. They show that while the S2S system is not as accurate at 10 days in forecasting major SSW events as the NASA GMAO Forward Processing system, it can usefully predict stratospheric anomalies out to 20 days and the subsequent stratospheric/tropospheric evolution beyond 30 days.

Coy, L.↗