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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The RAM-SCB model and its applications to advance space weather forecasting

Energetic particle fluxes that are part of the Earth’s ring current and radiation belts can intensify significantly during space weather events like geomagnetic storms and could cause severe damage to satellite-based technologies. Understanding the physical processes that control their dynamics and improving our capability for their prediction is thus extremely important. In the context of space weather applications and user needs, this paper provides a brief description of our kinetic ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic field (RAM-SCB) and its further extension to implement a self-consistent electric (E) field. Specific examples that demonstrate RAM-SCB capabilities and limitations to reproduce the near-Earth space weather environment are given. In this paper, the current status of RAM-SCB is assessed and plans for its further improvement are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator application to heat waves: Ko’olauloa community resilience hub

Heat waves are increasing in severity, duration, and frequency. The Multi-Scenario Extreme Weather Simulator (MEWS) models this using historical data, climate model outputs, and heat wave multipliers. In this study, MEWS is applied for planning of a community resilience hub in Hau'ula, Hawaii. The hub will have normal operations and resilience operations modes. Both these modes were modeled using EnergyPlus. The resilience operations mode includes cutting off air conditioning for many spaces to decrease power requirements during emergencies. Results were simulated for 300 future weather files generated by MEWS for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080. Shared socioeconomic pathways 2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 were used. The resilience operations mode results show two to six times increase of hours of exceedance beyond 32.2 °C from present conditions, depending on climate scenario and future year. The resulting decrease in thermal resilience enables an average decrease of energy use intensity of 26% with little sensitivity to climate change. The decreased thermal resilience predicted in the future is undesirable, but was not severe enough to require a more energy-intensive resilience mode. Instead, planning is needed to assure vulnerable individuals are given prioritized access to air-conditioned parts of the hub if worst-case heat waves occur.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radar Derived Rainfall and Rain Gauge Measurements at SRS

Over the years rainfall data for the Savannah River Site has been obtained from ground level measurements made by rain gauges. These instruments have inherent errors or biases that can impact the measured rainfall totals but are assumed as ground truth for most climatological and weather applications. With the development of weather radar technologies, various methods to derive rainfall totals from radar reflectivity values have been developed and have continued to improve. The Z-R relationship, which uses an exponential relationship to estimate rainfall rate based on radar reflectivity values, provides estimates of rainfall amounts (Z-R Level III) for locations within the radar’s detection range. The recently developed Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) dataset combines reflectivity-based estimates using the Z-R relationship with a network of gauges and other rainfall estimates to produce a refined set of precipitation estimates for each grid point within its domain. Comparisons were done between gauge observations and radar estimates for various SRS locations to assess whether radar derived estimates are representative of rainfall measurements at the site. Results obtained show good agreement between radar derived amounts and ground measurements, with MRMS showing stronger correlations and lower spread than Z-R Level III estimates. Outliers and errors observed appear to be related to hydrometeor classification schemes. In general, MRMS proved to provide sufficiently representative estimates of daily rainfall amounts to replace existing SRS rain gauge measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kronecker-structured covariance models for multiway data

Many applications produce multiway data of exceedingly high dimension. Modeling such multi-way data is important in multichannel signal and video processing where sensors produce multi-indexed data, e.g. over spatial, frequency, and temporal dimensions. We will address the challenges of covariance representation of multiway data and review some of the progress in statistical modeling of multiway covariance over the past two decades, focusing on tensor-valued covariance models and their inference. We will illustrate through a space weather application: predicting the evolution of solar active regions over time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of WSR-88D Level III and MRMS Rainfall Estimates Against Rain Gauge Observations at the Savannah River Site

Rainfall data for the Savannah River Site (SRS) has been historically measured by rain gauges. These instruments serve as ground truth for most climatological and weather applications; however, gauge measurements are prone to errors or biases under certain weather conditions. Rainfall estimates from radar reflectivity values have been developed and improved over the years and serve as an alternative or supplement for gauge measurements. This study compares measurements from tipping bucket rain gauges with rainfall estimates from the NOAA NWS WSR-88D Level III hourly rainfall product and the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) gauge-corrected precipitation estimate. Results show good agreement between radar derived amounts and ground measurements, with MRMS values showing correlation coefficients of 0.60-0.95 and RMSE values of less than 1.0 cm (0.4 in). The WSR-88D Level III estimates result in correlation coefficients of 0.46-0.86 and RMSE values of less than 1.3 cm (0.5 in). Few outliers are observed for each data pair and are evaluated against precipitation classification products (WSR-88D Hybrid Hydrometeor Classification product and MRMS Precipitation Flag product). The rain gauges used in this study are not part of the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) network used to correct the MRMS estimates and therefore, results of this work provide an independent validation of the MRMS gauge correction scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A conservative implicit-PIC scheme for the hybrid kinetic-ion fluid-electron plasma model on curvilinear meshes

We report that the hybrid kinetic-ion fluid-electron plasma model is widely used to study challenging multi-scale problems in space and laboratory plasma physics. Here, a novel conservative scheme for this model employing implicit particle-in-cell techniques is extended to arbitrary coordinate systems via curvilinear maps from logical to physical space. The scheme features a fully non-linear electromagnetic formulation with a multi-rate time advance - including sub-cycling and orbit-averaging for the kinetic ions. By careful choice of compatible particle-based kinetic-ion and mesh-based fluid-electron discretizations in curvilinear coordinates, as well as particle-mesh interpolations and implicit midpoint time advance, the scheme is proven to conserve total energy for arbitrary curvilinear meshes. In the electrostatic limit, the method is also proven to conserve total momentum for arbitrary curvilinear meshes. Although momentum is not conserved for arbitrary curvilinear meshes in the electromagnetic case, it is for an important subset of Cartesian tensor-packed meshes. The scheme and its novel conservation properties are demonstrated for several challenging numerical problems using different curvilinear meshes, including a merging flux-rope simulation for a space weather application, and a helical m = 1 mode simulation for magnetic fusion energy application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview, Progress and Next Steps for Our Understanding of the Near-Earth Space Radiation and Plasma Environment: Science and Applications

The Near-Earth Space Radiation and Plasma Environment falls within the realm of G3 Cluster (G3 refers to ‘Near-Earth Radiation and Plasma Environment’ of the ‘Coupled Geospace System’) under the COSPAR (Committee On Space Research) /International Space Weather Action Teams (ISWAT) Initiative. The diverse and dynamic particle populations from this region pose challenges from both science and space weather-impact perspectives. The G3 cluster has intimate connections with solar, heliosphere clusters, and the other Geospace ones (G1, G2) through a chain of physical processes. This paper reviews recent scientific advances in understanding this complex space environment, identifies gaps in research and space weather applications, and maps out our recommendations on priorities for the next 5-10 years.

Zheng, Yihua↗
DOE OSTI2025

A digital twin platform for building performance monitoring and optimization: Performance simulation and case studies

Advancements in sensor technology, data analytics, affordable compute, and communication infrastructure have paved the way for Digital Twin technology in optimizing building operations and controls. This study presents the development of an open and interoperable web-based Digital Twin platform for integrating diverse data streams and facilitating effective user interactions. The platform utilizes modern technologies for the web framework and time-series data management, ensuring scalability and responsiveness. The backend supports seamless integration of diverse data sources and emulators, incorporating data from building sensors and meters, external weather Application Programming Interfaces, and advanced EnergyPlus simulation models of the building and its energy systems including the Distributed Energy Resources that are formulated in Functional Mockup Units. A simulation case study was conducted with FlexLab, a test facility on Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory campus. The case study includes normal operations, Distributed Energy Resource integration, and power outage scenarios, to illustrate the Digital Twin’s ability to provide critical insights into energy performance and thermal resilience. The results demonstrated the platform’s potential as a decision-support tool for optimizing building energy performance and enhancing resilience against extreme weather events. Future work will focus on deploying the Digital Twin platform to a real building for field validation, extending its capabilities to cover more scenarios such as bidirectional Electric Vehicle interactions, and enhancing user engagement.

EnergyPlus↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Randomized Preconditioned Solvers for Strong Constraint 4D-Var Data Assimilation

The Strong Constraint 4D Variational (SC-4DVAR) data assimilation method is widely used in climate and weather applications. SC-4DVAR involves solving a minimization problem to compute the maximum a posteriori estimate, which we tackle using the Gauss-Newton method. The computation of the descent direction is expensive since it involves the solution of a large-scale and potentially ill-conditioned linear system, solved using the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method. Here, to address this cost, we efficiently construct scalable preconditioners using three different randomization techniques, which all rely on a certain low-rank structure involving the Gauss-Newton Hessian. The proposed techniques come with theoretical guarantees on the condition number, and at the same time, are amenable to parallelization. We also develop an adaptive approach to estimate the sketch size and choose between the reuse or recomputation of the preconditioner. We demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of our methodology on two representative model problems—the Burgers and barotropic vorticity equation—showing a drastic reduction in both the number of PCG iterations and the number of Gauss-Newton Hessian products after including the preconditioner construction cost.

Gauss-Newton↗
DOE OSTI2022

Meso-Scale Electrodynamic Coupling of the Earth Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System

Within the fully integrated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, many electrodynamic processes interact with each other. We review recent advances in understanding three major meso-scale coupling processes within the system: the transient field-aligned currents (FACs), mid-latitude plasma convection, and auroral particle precipitation. (1) Transient FACs arise due to disturbances from either dayside or nightside magnetosphere. As the interplanetary shocks suddenly compress the dayside magnetosphere, short-lived FACs are induced at high latitudes with their polarity successively changing. Magnetotail dynamics, such as substorm injections, can also disturb the current structures, leading to the formation of substorm current wedges and ring current disruption. (2) The mid-latitude plasma convection is closely associated with electric fields in the system. Recent studies have unraveled some important features and mechanisms of subauroral fast flows. (3) Charged particles, while drifting around the Earth, often experience precipitating loss down to the upper atmosphere, enhancing the auroral conductivity. Recent studies have been devoted to developing more self-consistent geospace circulation models by including a better representation of the auroral conductance. It is expected that including these new advances in geospace circulation models could promisingly strengthen their forecasting capability in space weather applications. The remaining challenges especially in the global modeling of the circulation system are also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Evaporator for Efficient Solar-Driven Interfacial Steam Generation

Solar-driven interfacial steam generation is a promising technique for clean water production as it can minimize thermal loss by localizing solar-to-heat conversion at the air/liquid interface. Here we report an integrated solar-evaporator by partially growing two-dimensional polypyrrole microsheets within a melamine foam through chemical vapor polymerization. These microsheets can induce multiple light reflections within the foam, enable omnidirectional light absorption, provide abundant surfaces to promote heat transfer, and achieve spatially-defined hydrophobicity to facilitate vapor escape. Meanwhile, the inherent hydrophilicity of the bottom part of the foam promotes spontaneous upward water transport and suppresses heat loss. The composite foam exhibits an excellent apparent evaporation rate of ~2 kg/(m 2 ·h) and solar-to-vapor efficiency of ~91%. Here, the combined advantages of large surface area, high efficiency, low cost, all weather application, excellent durability, and scalable manufacturing make our integrated design promising for fabricating large-scale solar steam generation systems that are suitable for practical clean water production.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A New Phase for Space Weather

As we move into the declining phase of solar cycle 25, the sunspot number is going down but space weather impacts are not disappearing. Solar energetic particle events, large x-ray flares, and geomagnetic storms are still happening and the declining phase will bring a different balance of hazards. The need for space weather science, space weather applications, and an interface between research, application, and stakeholder communities has not passed. Observations and insights from solar cycle 25 will continue to help us prepare for solar cycle 26, so that we approach the next solar maximum with better predictions, better understanding of outcomes, and a stronger community enabling more confident mitigation and clearer outreach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Weathering May Benefit From Co‐Application With Organic Amendments

Abstract Enhanced weathering has emerged as a promising natural climate solution that has the potential to remove billions of tons of carbon from the atmosphere if widely adopted in agricultural settings. Despite this potential, few field trials have been published that verify the carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential of enhanced weathering in croplands and, until now, none had been published in grazing lands. Anthony et al. (2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001480 ) conducted the first trial of enhanced weathering in a California rangeland and showed weathering of ground silicate rocks despite drought conditions in an already dry climate. Co‐application of inorganic (silicate rocks) with organic (biochar and compost) amendments revealed not just additive, but synergistic effects whereby organic amendments increased rates of weathering. This is important because field CDR rates were <10% of the theoretical maximum (i.e., the rate if basalt was completely weathered); thus, methods to improve weathering rates will be necessary for this practice to scale in a meaningful way. Multi‐carbon pool measurements revealed not only how co‐application of soil amendments heightened net carbon benefits, but also how soil amendments complemented each other to produce net benefits for soil carbon, biomass growth, and greenhouse gas emission reductions. Anthony et al. (2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001480 ) produce new insights toward our understanding of enhanced weathering as well as introduce paths for future research concerning combined amendment applications, synergistic mechanisms for carbon storage, and deployment in various agricultural contexts. While questions remain about the fate of weathering products in arid regions, Anthony et al. (2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001480 ) present novel findings on the potential for significant weathering to occur even under suboptimal conditions.

Almaraz, Maya [Yale Center for Natural Carbon Capt↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Review of Recent and Emerging Machine Learning Applications for Climate Variability and Weather Phenomena

Abstract Climate variability and weather phenomena can cause extremes and pose significant risk to society and ecosystems, making continued advances in our physical understanding of such events of utmost importance for regional and global security. Advances in machine learning (ML) have been leveraged for applications in climate variability and weather, empowering scientists to approach questions using big data in new ways. Growing interest across the scientific community in these areas has motivated coordination between the physical and computer science disciplines to further advance the state of the science and tackle pressing challenges. During a recently held workshop that had participants across academia, private industry, and research laboratories, it became clear that a comprehensive review of recent and emerging ML applications for climate variability and weather phenomena that can cause extremes was needed. This article aims to fulfill this need by discussing recent advances, challenges, and research priorities in the following topics: sources of predictability for modes of climate variability, feature detection, extreme weather and climate prediction and precursors, observation–model integration, downscaling, and bias correction. This article provides a review for domain scientists seeking to incorporate ML into their research. It also provides a review for those with some ML experience seeking to broaden their knowledge of ML applications for climate variability and weather.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗