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Results for “Weather uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

A Mathematical Model and Algorithm for Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

A central challenge in managing today's commercial en route air traffic is the task of routing the aircraft in the presence of adverse weather. Such weather can make regions of the airspace unusable, so all affected flights must be re-routed. Today this task is carried out by conference and negotiation between human air traffic controllers (ATC) responsible for the involved sectors of the airspace. One can argue that, in so doing, ATC try to solve an optimization problem without giving it a precise quantitative formulation. Such a formulation gives the mathematical machinery for constructing and verifying algorithms that are aimed at solving the problem. This paper contributes one such formulation and a corresponding algorithm. The algorithm addresses weather uncertainty and has closed form, which allows transparent analysis of correctness, realism, and computational costs.

uncertainty↗
NASA NTRS2016

Risk-Hedged Approach for Re-Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

This presentation corresponds to: our paper explores a new risk-hedged approach for re-routing air traffic around forecast convective weather. In this work, flying through a more likely weather instantiation is considered to pose a higher level of risk. Current operational practice strategically plans re-routes to avoid only the most likely (highest risk) weather instantiation, and then tactically makes any necessary adjustments as the weather evolves. The risk-hedged approach strategically plans re-routes by minimizing the risk-adjusted path length, incorporating multiple possible weather instantiations with associated likelihoods (risks). The resulting model is transparent and is readily analyzed for realism and treated with well-understood shortest-path algorithms. Risk-hedged re-routes are computed for some example weather instantiations. The main result is that in some scenarios, relative to an operational-practice proxy solution, the risk-hedged solution provides the benefits of lower risk as well as shorter path length. In other scenarios, the benefits of the risk-hedged solution are ambiguous, because the solution is characterized by a tradeoff between risk and path length. The risk-hedged solution can be executed in those scenarios where it provides a clear benefit over current operational practice.

air traffic routing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying and simulating the weather forecast uncertainty for advanced building control

Weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable despite technological advancements. Accurately quantifying and modelling this uncertainty is essential for developing and comparing advanced building controllers. In this study, we present a structured approach using a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)) to model uncertainty in ambient temperature and global solar irradiation (GHI) forecasts. We analyzed weather data from four cities and employed Jensen–Shannon divergence (JSD) to evaluate the similarity between synthetic and actual forecast errors. The average JSD values for temperature are 0.027 (Berkeley), 0.021 (Leuven), 0.018 (Berlin), and 0.008 (Oslo), and for GHI, the average JSD values are 0.016 (Berkeley), 0.058 (Leuven), and 0.013 (Berlin). The low JSD values indicate a high similarity between the synthetic and real forecast error distributions. Further, our approach successfully generates synthetic weather forecasts that mirror the statistical properties of actual forecasts. The implementation of our method for uncertain forecast generation is being added to the BOPTEST framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Low-Earth Orbit Trajectory Optimization in the Presence of Atmospheric Uncertainty

The previous 20 to 25 years have seen a tremendous increase in space exploration, and with that an increase in the level of logistics planning needed to ensure mission success. For spacecraft that are designed to be periodically re-supplied, a key logistics consumable is propellant, as it constitutes the greatest up-mass on re-supply vehicles. A trajectory design strategy is therefore desired that minimizes propellant usage in order to ease the demand for propellant re-supply missions. This thesis develops such a strategy in three stages, and uses the International Space Station (ISS) as its testbed, as no other LEO spacecraft is more challenging from a space logistics standpoint. First, the ISS trajectory planning problem is formulated as a constrained burn optimization problem assuming a deterministic atmosphere. The cost function is total ∆v, with constraints imposed on longitude of ascending viii node (LAN) and semi-major axis (SMA) altitude. Analytic derivatives are constructed for both the cost and constraints, which are necessary given the 6-week to 2-year time frames being considered. A gradient-based optimizer is then utilized to find locally-optimal solutions to real-world ISS trajectory planning problems. Second, atmospheric uncertainty is addressed by constructing a probabilistic model of space weather data using Gaussian Processes (GPs). Bayesian inference is performed using the GP model to generate mean and covariance estimates for space weather predictions, whose pedigree is assessed against test data. The predictions are then mapped into atmospheric density via the analytic Jacchia-Roberts density model, and the effect of space weather uncertainty on orbital lifetime is examined. Third, an ISS burn execution uncertainty model is developed. This model, along with the space weather uncertainty model, are deployed in a linear covariance analysis to ascertain their combined effect on LAN and SMA altitude dispersions. The deterministic constraints from the original problem are re-formulated as stochastic constraints, where now the constraint uncertainty interval is required to fall within specified bounds. An updated optimization framework is constructed using the original ∆v cost function along with the stochastic constraints to solve the trajectory optimization problem under atmospheric uncertainty. Finally, the complete architecture is summarized for deployment in an operational setting.

Trajectory Optimization↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic predictions and uncertainty estimation for radiological and nuclear effects modeling

Better characterization of meteorological uncertainty is needed to predict the effects of radiological and nuclear releases in the atmosphere. Multi-physics ensembles of atmospheric simulations can estimate uncertainty of physical processes, but they are often limited for computational reasons. Because weather uncertainty is important for emergency response applications, but the conventional way of running multi-physics ensembles is infeasible, we have developed new machine learning-based methods that quickly estimate and identify key sources of meteorological uncertainty. Machine learning accelerates the analysis of weather uncertainty by iteratively learning about model physics options that affect plume predictions. We have demonstrated the power of machine learning by creating a large multi-physics weather and dispersion ensemble dataset containing 1,200 simulations for two hypothetical radiological release scenarios. By training on less than 10% of the ensemble, we can quickly and accurately predict different outcomes, including the mass of radiological material deposited and spatial distribution and extent of contaminated areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Flight Departure Delay and Rerouting Under Uncertainty in En Route Convective Weather

Delays caused by uncertainty in weather forecasts can be reduced by improving traffic flow management decisions. This paper presents a methodology for traffic flow management under uncertainty in convective weather forecasts. An algorithm for assigning departure delays and reroutes to aircraft is presented. Departure delay and route assignment are executed at multiple stages, during which, updated weather forecasts and flight schedules are used. At each stage, weather forecasts up to a certain look-ahead time are treated as deterministic and flight scheduling is done to mitigate the impact of weather on four-dimensional flight trajectories. Uncertainty in weather forecasts during departure scheduling results in tactical airborne holding of flights. The amount of airborne holding depends on the accuracy of forecasts as well as the look-ahead time included in the departure scheduling. The weather forecast look-ahead time is varied systematically within the experiments performed in this paper to analyze its effect on flight delays. Based on the results, longer look-ahead times cause higher departure delays and additional flying time due to reroutes. However, the amount of airborne holding necessary to prevent weather incursions reduces when the forecast look-ahead times are higher. For the chosen day of traffic and weather, setting the look-ahead time to 90 minutes yields the lowest total delay cost.

Mukherjee, Avijit↗
NASA NTRS1996

Uncertainties that flight crews and dispatchers must consider when calculating the fuel needed for a flight

In 1993, fuel accounted for approximately 15 percent of an airline's expenses. Fuel consumption increases as fuel reserves increase because of the added weight to the aircraft. Calculating fuel reserves is a function of Federal Aviation Regulations, airline company policy, and factors that impact or are impacted by fuel usage enroute. This research studied how pilots and dispatchers determined the fuel needed for a flight and identified areas where improvements in methods may yield measurable fuel savings by (1) listing the uncertainties that contribute to adding contingency fuel, (2) obtaining the pilots' and dispatchers' perspective on how often each uncertainty occurred, and (3) obtaining pilots' and dispatchers' perspective on the fuel used for each occurrence. This study found that for the majority of the time, pilots felt that dispatchers included enough fuel. As for the uncertainties that flight crews and dispatchers account for, air traffic control accounts for 28% and weather uncertainties account for 58 percent. If improvements can be made in these two areas, a great potential exists to decrease the reserve required, and therefore, fuel usage without jeopardizing safety.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-objective optimization of sustainable aviation fuel production pathways in the U.S. Corn Belt

As a potential source of low-carbon transportation energy, biofuels offer certain advantages over vehicle electrification (e.g., lower societal vulnerability to grid failures, and improved range of sustainable aviation), but also several challenges, including cost, carbon intensity, and land usage. There are also well-founded concerns that biofuel supply chains could be disrupted if extreme weather events impact feedstock yields. In this paper, we explore the use of multi-objective optimization to identify biofuel production pathways that balance cost, greenhouse gas emissions, and supply vulnerability to extreme weather. We compare the use of three different many-objective evolutionary algorithms and linear programming in optimizing biomass cultivation decisions in the U.S. Corn Belt under weather uncertainty using historical, modeled, and synthetic yield data. We consider four feedstock choices (corn, soy, switchgrass, and algae) with two land types (agricultural and marginal lands) and evaluate decisions using three alternative spatial resolutions (ranging from the USDA agricultural district level to the state level). Results show that feedstock choice is the primary driver of objective performance (i.e., the position and shape of 3D, approximate Pareto frontiers). Spatial diversification is a less effective tool in reducing exposure to weather-caused drops in crop yield.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A2E2G (Atmosphere to Electrons to the Grid platform) [SWR-23-22]

A2E2G is a platform that integrates 1) forecasting tools to account for weather uncertainty, with 2) aerodynamic wind plant models to account for wake dynamics and wind plant operation, and 3) economic models to advise on operation for a wind power plant that offers grid services in addition to energy. The A2E2G platform can be used as a high-level controller for a wind plant for market participation and real-time wind plant control. The A2E2g platform is a holistic Python tool with modules that can be run to 1) advise on market participation and 2) control and operate a wind power plant in real time. The A2E2g framework assumes two stages: the first stage is in day-ahead and the second stage is in real-time. Managing uncertainty is key in the first stage and managing variability is key in the second stage. The different components have models written and developed in the Python programming language. The code is assembled into a Python package and can be easily downloaded and installed from the A2E2g repository (https://github.com/NREL/a2e2g).

Sinner, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2011

Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

Consiglio, Maria C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Scheduling Framework using SP-ADMM for Residential Demand Response with Weather and Consumer Uncertainties

This paper presents a comprehensive scheduling framework for residential demand response (DR) programs considering both the day-ahead and real-time electricity markets. In the first stage, residential customers determine the operating status of their responsive devices such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and electric water heaters (EWHs), while the distribution system operator (DSO) computes the amount of electricity to be purchased in the day-ahead electricity market. In the second stage, the DSO purchases insufficient (or sells surplus) electricity in the real-time electricity market to maintain the supply-demand balance. Due to its computational complexity and data privacy issues, the proposed model cannot be directly solved in a centralized manner, especially with a large number of uncertain scenarios. Therefore, this paper proposes a combination of stochastic programming (SP) and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm, called SP-ADMM, to decompose the original model and then solve each sub-problem in a distributed manner while considering multiple uncertain scenarios. The simulation study is performed on the IEEE 33-bus system including 121 residential houses. Here, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for large-scale residential DR applications under weather and consumer uncertainties.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Urbanization Impact on Regional Climate and Extreme Weather: Current Understanding, Uncertainties, and Future Research Directions

Abstract Urban environments lie at the confluence of social, cultural, and economic activities and have unique biophysical characteristics due to continued infrastructure development that generally replaces natural landscapes with built-up structures. The vast majority of studies on urban perturbation of local weather and climate have been centered on the urban heat island (UHI) effect, referring to the higher temperature in cities compared to their natural surroundings. Besides the UHI effect and heat waves, urbanization also impacts atmospheric moisture, wind, boundary layer structure, cloud formation, dispersion of air pollutants, precipitation, and storms. In this review article, we first introduce the datasets and methods used in studying urban areas and their impacts through both observation and modeling and then summarize the scientific insights on the impact of urbanization on various aspects of regional climate and extreme weather based on more than 500 studies. We also highlight the major research gaps and challenges in our understanding of the impacts of urbanization and provide our perspective and recommendations for future research priorities and directions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Multi-Flight Common Routes for Traffic Flow Management

This paper presents an approach for creating common weather avoidance reroutes for multiple flights and the associated benefits analysis, which is an extension of the single flight advisories generated using the Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) concept. These multiple flight advisories are implemented in the National Airspace System (NAS) Constraint Evaluation and Notification Tool (NASCENT), a nation-wide simulation environment to generate time- and fuel-saving alternate routes for flights during severe weather events. These single flight advisories are clustered together in the same Center by considering parameters such as a common return capture fix. The clustering helps propose routes called, Multi-Flight Common Routes (MFCR), that avoid weather and other airspace constraints, and save time and fuel. It is expected that these routes would also provide lower workload for traffic managers and controllers since a common route is found for several flights, and presumably the route clearances would be easier and faster. This study was based on 30-days in 2014 and 2015 each, which had most delays attributed to convective weather. The results indicate that many opportunities exist where individual flight routes can be clustered to fly along a common route to save a significant amount of time and fuel, and potentially reducing the amount of coordination needed.

weather uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning based algorithms for uncertainty quantification in numerical weather prediction models

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the corresponding physical parameters during model configuration can significantly impact the accuracy of model forecasts. There is no combination of physical schemes that works best for all times, at all locations, and under all conditions. It is therefore of considerable interest to understand the interplay between the choice of physics and the accuracy of the resulting forecasts under different conditions. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning techniques to study the uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models due to the interaction of multiple physical processes. The first problem addressed herein is the estimation of systematic model errors in output quantities of interest at future times, and the use of this information to improve the model forecasts. The second problem considered is the identification of those specific physical processes that contribute most to the forecast uncertainty in the quantity of interest under specified meteorological conditions. In order to address these questions we employ two machine learning approaches, random forests and artificial neural networks. The discrepancies between model results and observations at past times are used to learn the relationships between the choice of physical processes and the resulting forecast errors. Numerical experiments are carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The output quantity of interest is the model precipitation, a variable that is both extremely important and very challenging to forecast. The physical processes under consideration include various micro-physics schemes, cumulus parameterizations, short wave, and long wave radiation schemes. The experiments demonstrate the strong potential of machine learning approaches to aid the study of model errors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Finally, our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗