Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Western US”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The Wasatch Environmental Observatory: A mountain to urban research network in the semi‐arid western US

Abstract The 2085 km 2 Jordan River Basin, and its seven sub‐catchments draining the Central Wasatch Range immediately east of Salt Lake City, UT, are home to an array of hydrologic, atmospheric, climatic and chemical research infrastructure that collectively forms the Wasatch Environmental Observatory (WEO). WEO is geographically nested within a wildland to urban land‐use gradient and built upon a strong foundation of over a century of discharge and climate records. A 2200 m gradient in elevation results in variable precipitation, temperature and vegetation patterns. Soil and subsurface structure reflect systematic variation in geology from granitic, intrusive to mixed sedimentary clastic across headwater catchments, all draining to the alluvial or colluvial sediments of the former Lake Bonneville. Winter snowfall and spring snowmelt control annual hydroclimate, rapid population growth dominates geographic change in lower elevations and urban gas and particle emissions contribute to episodes of severe air pollution in this closed‐basin. Long‐term hydroclimate observations across this diverse landscape provide the foundation for an expanding network of infrastructure in both montane and urban landscapes. Current infrastructure supports both basic and applied research in atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemistry, climate, ecology, hydrology, meteorology, resource management and urban redesign that is augmented through strong partnerships with cooperating agencies. These features allow WEO to serve as a unique natural laboratory for addressing research questions facing seasonally snow‐covered, semi‐arid regions in a rapidly changing world and an excellent facility for providing student education and research training.

Follstad Shah, Jennifer J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extension of Large Fire Emissions From Summer to Autumn and Its Drivers in the Western US

Abstract Burned areas in the western US have increased ten‐fold since 1980s, which are attributable to multiple factors, including increasing heat, changing precipitation patterns, and extended drought. To better understand how these factors contribute to large fire emissions (gridded monthly fire emissions >95th percentile of all the fire emissions in the western US; 0.009 Gg/month), we build a machine learning model to predict fire emissions (PM 2.5 ) over the western US at 0.25° resolution, interpreted using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). From the predictor contributions derived from XAI, we conduct k‐means clustering analysis to identify four clusters of predictor variables representing different drivers of large fire emissions. The four clusters feature the contributions of fuel load (Cluster 1) and different levels of dryness (Cluster 2–4), controlled by fuel moisture, drought condition, and fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns featuring high temperature, high pressure, and low relative humidity. In the past two decades, large fire emissions peak in summer. However, large fire emissions increased significantly in September and October in 2010–2020 relative to 2000–2009, extending the peak large fire emissions from summer to autumn. The larger enhancements of large fire emissions during autumn compared to summer are contributed by decreased fuel moisture, along with more frequent concurrent fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns and drought. These results highlight fuel drying as a common driver supported by multiple drivers, such as warmer temperature and more frequent synoptic patterns favorable for fires, in increasing the autumn risk of large fire emissions across the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Wind Speed in Prolonging Large Fire Durations in the Western US

Abstract The duration of large wildfires in the western US has increased significantly from 1992 to 2020 in the two fire seasons, by 0.76 days yr −1 in summer and 0.55 days yr −1 in fall. The factors driving the trend and variability were analyzed using multiple linear regression models. Our analysis identified the maximum daily wind speed during large fires, which has also increased during the study period, as the primary predictor for the large fire duration. Despite the observed rise in maximum wind speed specifically during large fires, there are no corresponding trends in the average daily mean wind speed throughout the fire seasons. The mechanisms underlying the increase in maximum wind speed during large fires remain unclear and warrant further investigation, as they may pose growing challenges for fire control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations

Overview The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model is an open-source geospatial python package that provides new power plant locations at a 1km resolution. The model ingests U.S. state or regional-scale electricity system capacity expansion plans, such as those produced by the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), and identifies feasible, site-specific locations for individual new power plants (renewable and non-renewable). CERF combines high-resolution geospatial suitability analyses with an economic algorithm that selects individual plant siting locations based on grid interconnection costs and the locational marginal value of new generation. The model incorporates a wide range of dynamic constraints and opportunities, such as protected lands, population density, existing infrastructure, and water availability. This dataset provides CERF power plant siting results for IM3 Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 CERF siting results in this dataset correspond to capacity expansion plans in the GCAM-USA IM3 Phase 2 simulation data and are available for each of the above scenarios. Data Details Temporal Range: 2015-2055 in 5-year timesteps. Note that 2015 is the experiment base year and 2020 and beyond represent model simulation years. Spatial Range: Plant locations are provided for the eleven states in the Western US including Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Spatial Resolution: 1 km-squared, provided in x and y coordinates Geospatial Projection: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) File Type: csv The dataset contains subdirectories for each of the eight scenarios described in the overview. Each scenario folder contains two subfolders with the following information: 1. Power Plant Data This directory contains a single .csv file of power plant locations for both pre-existing (non-CERF sited plants in operation in 2015) and new (CERF-sited) power plants across the temporal range along with additional CERF model output parameters for CERF-sited plants. Plant with a siting year earlier than 2020 correspond to facilities that are operational leading into the first timestep CERF simulation. For a more detailed description of CERF model output parameters, see the CERF model documentation. Note that the cerf_plant_id parameter is unique within each scenario file but not across scenario files. Parameter Descriptions scenario - Name of scenario cerf_plant_id - Unique siting identifier cerf_sited - If True, indicates that plant was sited by CERF model. If False, indicates pre-existing facility region_name - Name of region (state) tech_id - Technology ID tech_name - Full generation technology name inclusive of cooling type (if applicable) and additional characteristics tech_simple - Simplified generation technology type unit_size_mw - Power plant unit size (MW) xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) index - Index position in the flattend 2D array buffer_in_km - Exclusion buffer around site (km) sited_year - Year of siting retirement_year - Year of retirement lmp_zone - Locational marginal price (LMP) zone ID locational_marginal_price_usd_per_mwh - Locational marginal price ($/MWh) generation_mwh_per_year - Generation output (MWh/yr) operating_cost_usd_per_year - Cost of plant operations ($/yr) net_operational_value - Net operational value based on LMP and and operating costs ($/yr) interconnection_cost - Cost of interconnection for transmission & gas pipeline (if applicable) net_locational_cost -- Difference of interconnection cost and operating value ($/yr) capacity_factor_fraction - Capacity factor (fraction) carbon_capture_rate_fraction - Carbon capture rate (fraction) fuel_co2_content_tons_per_btu - Fuel CO2 content (tons/Btu) fuel_price_usd_per_mmbtu - Fuel price ($/MMBtu) fuel_price_esc_rate_fraction - Fuel price escalation rate (fraction) heat_rate_btu_per_kWh - Heat rate (Btu/kWh) lifetime_yrs - Technology lifetime for annuity (years) operational_life_yrs - Operational lifetime for retirement (years) variable_om_usd_per_mwh - Variable operation and maintenance costs of yearly capacity use ($/MWh) variable_om_esc_rate_fraction - Variable operation and maintenance costs escalation rate (fraction) carbon_tax_usd_per_ton - Carbon tax ($/ton) carbon_tax_esc_rate_fraction - Carbon tax escalation rate (fraction) 2. Storage Data This directory contains information on new and pre-existing energy storage facilities operational in each timestep along with various storage operational parameters. The 2015 timestep provides pre-existing energy storage data and corresponds with facilities that are operational leading into the first model simulation timestep. Note that coordinates in the storage files correspond to the interconnection point on the grid (substation location), not individual energy storage locations. Energy storage is added in a cumulative process at each given interconnection point. That is, each individual file provides the total operational storage capacity interconnected to the specified substation for the given timestep, inclusive of previously installed storage at that location and new storage installed in that timestep at that location. Parameters scenario - Name of scenario timestep - Simulation timestep name - Unique storage identifier s_typ - Type of energy storage technology (battery or pumped storage hydro) s_node - Node ID of interconnecting substation xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) charge_rate - Maximum charge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) discharge_rate - Maximum discharge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) duration - Duration of storage system (hours) max_SoC - Allowed maximum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) min_SoC -Allowed minimum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) charge_eff - Efficiency of charge (fraction between 0 and 1) discharge_eff - Efficiency of discharge (fraction between 0 and 1) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

CERF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the Water Systems of the Western US to Support Climate‐Resilient Electricity System Planning

Abstract Electricity and water systems in the Western US (WUS) are closely connected, with hydropower comprising 20% of total annual WUS generation, and electricity related to water comprising about 7% of total WUS electricity use. Because of these interdependencies, the threat of climate change to WUS resources will likely have compounding electricity impacts on the Western Interconnect grid. This study describes a WUS‐wide water system model with a particular emphasis on estimating climate impacts on hydropower generation and water‐related electricity use, which can be linked with a grid expansion model to support climate‐resilient electricity planning. The water system model combines climatically‐driven physical hydrology and management of both water supply and demand allocation, and is applied to an ensemble of 15 climate scenarios out to 2050. Model results show decreasing streamflow in key basins of the WUS under most scenarios. Annual water‐related electricity use increases up to 4%, and by up to 6% during the summer months, driven by growing agricultural demands met increasingly through a shift toward energy‐intensive groundwater to replace declining surface water. Total annual hydropower generation changes by +5% to −20% by mid‐century but declines in most scenarios, with decreases in summer generation by up to nearly −30%. Water‐related electricity use increases tend to coincide with hydropower generation declines, annually and seasonally, demonstrating the importance of concurrently evaluating the climate signal on both water‐for‐energy and energy‐for‐water to inform planning for grid reliability and decarbonization goals.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Abstract Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st‐century changes in mean‐state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter‐model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet‐season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large‐scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter‐model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Natural Variability Has Concealed Increases in Western US Flood Hazard Since the 1970s

Flood hazard across the western United States (US) has generally shown decreasing trends in recent decades. This region's extreme streamflow is highly influenced by natural variability, which could either mask or amplify anthropogenic streamflow trends. Here, in this study, we utilize a technique known as dynamical adjustment to assess historical (1970–2020) annual maximum 1-day streamflow (Qx1d) from unregulated basins across the western US with and without the impact of natural variability. After removing natural variability, the fraction of basins with a positive (>5%) trend in Qx1d shifts from 25% to 53%. Basins with increasing (decreasing) Qx1d trends after dynamical adjustment exhibit weak (strong) drying, and furthermore are associated with intensifying precipitation extremes and/or large decreases in snowpack. Increasing flood hazard will likely emerge for such basins as the current phase of natural decadal variability shifts, and anthropogenic signals continue to intensify.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variable wildfire impacts on the seasonal water temperatures of western US streams: A retrospective study

Recent increases in the burn area and severity of wildfires in the western US have raised concerns about the impact on stream water temperature–a key determinant of cold-water fish habitats. However, the effect on seasonal water temperatures of concern, including winter and summer, are not fully understood. In this study, we assessed the impact of wildfire burns at Boulder Creek (Oregon), Elk Creek (Oregon), and Gibbon River (Wyoming) watersheds on the downstream winter and summer water temperatures for the first three post-fire years. To obtain results independent of the choice of the analytical method, we evaluated the consequence of each burn using three different statistical approaches that utilize local water temperature data. Our results from the three approaches indicated that the response of water temperatures to wildfire burns varied across seasons and sites. Wildfire burns were associated with a median increase of up to 0.56°C (Standard Error; S.E. < 0.23°C) in the summer mean water temperatures (MWT) and 62 degree-day Celsius (DDC; S.E. < 20.7 DDC) in the summer accumulated degree days (ADD) for the three subsequent years across studied stream sites. Interestingly, these burns also corresponded to a median decrease of up to 0.49°C (S.E. < 0.45°C) in the winter MWT and 39 DDC (S.E. < 40.5 DDC) in the winter ADD for the same period across sites. Wildfire effects on the downstream water temperatures diminished with increasing site distance from the burn perimeter. Our analyses demonstrated that analytical methods that utilize local watershed data could be applied to evaluate fire effects on downstream water temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wildfires increasingly impact western US fluvial networks

Wildfires are increasing globally in frequency, severity, and extent, but their impact on fluvial networks, and the resources they provide, remains unclear. We combine remote sensing of burn perimeter and severity, in-situ water quality monitoring, and longitudinal modeling to create the first large-scale, long-term estimates of stream+river length impacted by wildfire for the western US. We find that wildfires directly impact ~6% of the total stream+river length between 1984 and 2014, increasing at a rate of 342 km/year. When longitudinal propagation of water quality impacts is included, we estimate that wildfires affect ~11% of the total stream+river length. Our results indicate that wildfire activity is one of the largest drivers of aquatic impairment, though it is not routinely reported by regulatory agencies, as wildfire impacts on fluvial networks remain unconstrained. We identify key actions to address this knowledge gap and better understand the growing threat to fluvial networks, water security, and public health risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projecting Large Fires in the Western US With an Interpretable and Accurate Hybrid Machine Learning Method

More frequent and widespread large fires are occurring in the western United States (US), yet reliable methods for predicting these fires, particularly with extended lead times and a high spatial resolution, remain challenging. In this study, we proposed an interpretable and accurate hybrid machine learning (ML) model, that explicitly represented the controls of fuel flammability, fuel availability, and human suppression effects on fires. The model demonstrated notable accuracy with a F 1 -score of 0.846 ± 0.012, surpassing process-driven fire danger indices and four commonly used ML models by up to 40% and 9%, respectively. More importantly, the ML model showed remarkably higher interpretability relative to other ML models. Specifically, by demystifying the “black box” of each ML model using the explainable AI techniques, we identified substantial structural differences across ML fire models, even among those with similar accuracy. The relationships between fires and their drivers, identified by our model, were aligned closer with established fire physical principles. The ML structural discrepancy led to diverse fire predictions and our model predictions exhibited greater consistency with actual fire occurrence. With the highly interpretable and accurate model, we revealed the strong compound effects from multiple climate variables related to evaporative demand, energy release component, temperature, and wind speed, on the dynamics of large fires and megafires in the western US. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing the structural integrity of models in addition to their accuracy. They also underscore the critical need to address the rise in compound climate extremes linked to large wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Further adoption of conservation tillage can increase maize yields in the western US Corn Belt

Conservation tillage can reduce soil erosion, increase soil health, and decrease labor and fuel input costs. Despite these benefits, potential yield impacts remain an important concern for farmers considering adoption. Previous research suggests that conservation tillage is likely to have the largest yield benefits in more arid conditions, but a lack of field-level analyses across climatic, management and soil conditions limits confidence in such predictions. Satellite imagery provides the opportunity to monitor agricultural lands at sub-field resolution across large spatial scales and wide environmental gradients. Here we investigate the maize yield impacts of conservation tillage in the semi-arid western US Corn Belt, using sub-field resolution datasets on tillage practices and crop yields derived from satellite data spanning four states (Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, and North Dakota) between 2008 and 2020. On these datasets, we estimate heterogenous yield outcomes for several thousand maize fields across gradients in climate, soil quality and irrigation status by using a causal forests analysis, an adaptation of the random forests machine-learning algorithm for causal inference on observational data. We find that long-term adoption of conservation tillage increased rainfed maize yields by an average of 9.9% in the region. Impacts on irrigated yields were small and not statistically significant. These results, along with an analysis of variables related to greater than average yield benefits, indicate that improved water infiltration and retention are the primary reasons for conservation tillage benefits. Despite yield benefits, many fields estimated to see increased yields under long term low till have not adopted the practice. Therefore, we identify specific counties likely to benefit most from increased levels of adoption. Our results strengthen the understanding of the impacts of conservation agriculture on crop yields and help define environments and counties most likely to benefit from conservation tillage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of Land‐Surface Conditions on the 2020–2021 Western US Drought

Abstract In summer 2021, 90% of the western United States (WUS) experienced drought, with over half of the region facing extreme or exceptional conditions, leading to water scarcity, crop loss, ecological degradation, and significant socio‐economic consequences. Beyond the established influence of oceanic forcing and internal atmospheric variability, this study highlights the importance of land‐surface conditions in the development of the 2020–2021 WUS drought, using observational data analysis and novel numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that the soil moisture state preceding a meteorological drought, due to its intrinsic memory, is a critical factor in the development of soil droughts. Specifically, wet soil conditions can delay the transition from meteorological to soil droughts by several months or even nullify the effects of La Niña‐driven meteorological droughts, while drier conditions can exacerbate these impacts, leading to more severe soil droughts. For the same reason, soil droughts can persist well beyond the end of meteorological droughts. Our numerical experiments suggest a relatively weak soil moisture‐precipitation coupling during this drought period, corroborating the primary contributions of the ocean and atmosphere to this meteorological drought. Additionally, drought‐induced vegetation losses can mitigate soil droughts by reducing evapotranspiration and slowing the depletion of soil moisture. This study highlights the importance of soil moisture and vegetation conditions in seasonal‐to‐interannual drought predictions. Findings from this study have implications for regions like the WUS, which are experiencing anthropogenically‐driven soil aridification and vegetation greening, suggesting that future soil droughts in these areas may develop more rapidly, become more severe, and persist longer.

Jiang, Yelin [Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Col↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monthly hydropower generation data for Western Canada to support Western-US interconnect power system studies

Hydroelectric power generation in Western Canada significantly contributes to power grid operations of the North American Western Interconnection through substantial generation, some of which is exported to the United States (U.S.). However, the lack of publicly available hydropower generation datasets poses challenges for future market projections and resource adequacy evaluations. We present a simulation-based monthly power system model-ready hydropower generation dataset for 110 facilities in British Columbia and Alberta from 1981 to 2019. These monthly hydropower generation estimates are developed from integrated hydrologic model simulations of runoff and reservoir-operated streamflow, followed by scaling that considers diversion inflow constraints based on hydropower water license information. To address the lack of comparable hydropower generation records, we conduct step-by-step evaluations for simulated runoff, regulated streamflow, and hydropower generation using available observations or estimates. The presented hydropower dataset aims to enhance the representation of hydropower resources in Western Canada, supporting power grid system studies for the Western Interconnection of the U.S. and Canada.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

More land is needed for solar and wind infrastructure under a high renewables scenario in the Western US by 2050

Expanding United States electricity infrastructure to meet growing demand could require extensive power plant development footprints and land use conversion, depending on the mix of generation types chosen. Understanding where future power plant sitings are likely to take place and identifying potential conflicts and land-use tradeoffs will be key to identifying feasible and affordable investments and evaluating regional planning coordination needs. Here we use an integrated modeling framework that combines capacity expansion planning, hourly grid operations, and geospatial techno-economic analysis to develop projections (2025-2050) of power plant sitings in the Western United States (US) at a 1 km 2 resolution for a business-as-usual scenario and a high renewables penetration scenario. We find that 30% more land will be needed in the high renewables scenario as compared to business-as-usual, and that 75% of that development is projected to be located within 10 km of natural areas.

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heat Wave Impacts on Western US Electricity System

Visualization of hourly generation, load, unserved load, and locational marginal energy prices in the western United States during a July 22-28 heatwave event in 2018 and 2058. In addition to hourly time series data of each of the parameters, choropleth maps showing the hourly value for each balancing authority are provided as well as a county-level choropleth map of temperature.

Mongird, Kendall↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wet and dry plastic deposition data for western US National Atmospheric Deposition Program sites (2017-2019)

Raw plastic counts and calculated plastic deposition rates for 11 National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) sites in the western USA recorded from 2017-2019. Samples were collected to determine plastic deposition rates in remote locations and identify the potential sources of plastic to the atmosphere. Samples were collected using an Aerochem Metrics Wet and Dry sampler. Wet deposition refers to the material retained on a 0.45-micron filter. Dry deposition refers to the dry only deposition collected using a Dry Side Insert (DSI) (Brahney et al. 2020). Plastics are identified as either fibers or particles (includes small colored films). Wet deposition rates are recorded weekly and dry plastic deposition rates are based on monthly sampling intervals. Sites included are Grand Canyon National Park (AZ03), Joshua Tree National Park (CA67), Rocky Mountain National Park (CO98), Niwot Ridge (CO02), Ashley National Forest (UT95), East River SFA (CO10)), Craters of the Moon National Park (ID03), Great Basin National Park (NV05), Canyonlands National Park (UT09), Bryce Canyon Nationa Park (UT99), and Wind River Range (WY06). Data collection is being published in collaboration with the Department of Energy's research project, "Constraining physical understanding of aerosol loading, biogeochemistry, and snowmelt hydrology from hillslope to watershed scale in the East River Scientific Focus Areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Analysis of Impact of Western US Fires on Central US Hailstorms

Fires, including wildfires, harm air quality and essential public services like transportation, communication, and utilities. These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions, including temperature and aerosols, potentially affecting severe convective storms. Here, we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States (WUS) on the occurrence of large hail (size: $\geqslant$ 2.54 cm) in the central US (CUS) over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning (ML), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) methods. The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy (> 90%) and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide, particularly in four states (Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region (temperature and moisture), the westerly wind over the plume transport path, and the fire features (i.e., the maximum fire power and burned area). Importantly, the results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS, corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗