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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Enabled Quantitative Risk Assessment of Aerial Wildfire Response

Aerial wildfire operations are high risk and account for a large number of firefighter deaths. Increasing intensity of wildfires is driving a surge in aerial operations, while simultaneously there is growing interest in improving system safety and performance. In this work, wildfire aviation mishaps documented using the SAFECOM system are analyzed using a previously developed framework for hazard extraction and analysis of trends (HEAT). Hazards and specific failure modes are extracted from the narrative data in SAFECOM forms using natural language processing techniques. Metrics for each hazard are calculated, including frequency, rate, and severity. We examine whether these metrics change over time, and whether they are related to metadata, such as region and aircraft type. The results of the hazard analysis are presented in a risk matrix, identifying the highest and lowest risk hazards based on rate of occurrence and average severity. Results identify jumper operations hazards as high-risk, in addition to bucket drop failures, cargo let down failures, and severe weather as medium risk.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Enabled Quantitative Risk Assessment of Aerial Wildfire Response

Aerial wildfire operations are high risk and account for a large number of firefighter deaths. Increasing intensity of wildfires is driving a surge in aerial operations, while simultaneously there is growing interest in improving system safety and performance. In this work, wildfire aviation mishaps documented using the SAFECOM system are analyzed using a previously developed framework for hazard extraction and analysis of trends (HEAT). Hazards and specific failure modes are extracted from the narrative data in SAFECOM forms using natural language processing techniques. Metrics for each hazard are calculated, including frequency, rate, and severity. We examine whether these metrics change over time, and whether they are related to metadata, such as region and aircraft type. The results of the hazard analysis are presented in a risk matrix, identifying the highest and lowest risk hazards based on rate of occurrence and average severity. Results identify jumper operations hazards as high-risk, in addition to bucket drop failures, cargo let down failures, and severe weather as medium risk.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BERT-based Topic Modeling and Information Retrieval to Support Fishbone Diagramming for Safe Integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems in Wildfire Response

Recent concepts for emerging wildfire response operations have included unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) due to their increasing accessibility and capabilities. To integrate UAS into wildfire response safely, researchers have studied the use of large repositories of historic incident reports to improve the scope of root cause analysis. Recent work has emphasized applying state-of-the-art natural language processing techniques to extract useful information from these repositories. However, it has not yet been studied how these results can be interpreted and integrated into the systems engineering process. In this work, we propose a process in which Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based topic modeling and information retrieval are applied to a relevant set of documents in order to support the development of a fishbone diagram in a semiautomated process. High-level themes in the document set are identified using topic modeling, which are then refined and interpreted by a human analyst. Then, the themes are used to guide a finer search using information retrieval, which returns specific incident reports of relevance. This provides traceability to specific incidents as well as broader categorizations that comprise the fishbone branches. We apply the proposed process to relevant documents from NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The proposed process is widely applicable when relevant documents are available, and the results from this study will be useful to identifying potential causes of wildfire response UAS incidents.

hazard analysis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BERT-based Topic Modeling and Information Retrieval to Support Fishbone Diagramming for Safe Integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems in Wildfire Response

Recent concepts for emerging wildfire response operations have included unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) due to their increasing accessibility and capabilities. To integrate UAS into wildfire response safely, researchers have studied the use of large repositories of historic incident reports to improve the scope of root cause analysis. Recent work has emphasized applying state-of-the-art natural language processing techniques to extract useful information from these repositories. However, it has not yet been studied how these results can be interpreted and integrated into the systems engineering process. In this work, we propose a process in which Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based topic modeling and information retrieval are applied to a relevant set of documents in order to support the development of a fishbone diagram in a semiautomated process. High-level themes in the document set are identified using topic modeling, which are then refined and interpreted by a human analyst. Then, the themes are used to guide a finer search using information retrieval, which returns specific incident reports of relevance. This provides traceability to specific incidents as well as broader categorizations that comprise the fishbone branches. We apply the proposed process to relevant documents from NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The proposed process is widely applicable when relevant documents are available, and the results from this study will be useful to identifying potential causes of wildfire response UAS incidents.

hazard analysis↗
NASA NTRS2023

BERT-Based Topic Modeling and Information Retrieval to Support Fishbone Diagramming for Safe Integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems in Wildfire Response

Recent concepts for emerging wildfire response operations have included unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) due to their increasing accessibility and capabilities. To integrate UAS into wildfire response safely, researchers have studied the use of large repositories of historic incident reports to improve the scope of root cause analysis. Recent work has emphasized applying state-of-the-art natural language processing techniques to extract useful information from these repositories. However, it has not yet been studied how these results can be interpreted and integrated into the systems engineering process. In this work, we propose a process in which Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based topic modeling and information retrieval are applied to a relevant set of documents in order to support the development of a fishbone diagram in a semiautomated process. High-level themes in the document set are identified using topic modeling, which are then refined and interpreted by a human analyst. Then, the themes are used to guide a finer search using information retrieval, which returns specific incident reports of relevance. This provides traceability to specific incidents as well as broader categorizations that comprise the fishbone branches. We apply the proposed process to relevant documents from NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The proposed process is widely applicable when relevant documents are available, and the results from this study will be useful to identifying potential causes of wildfire response UAS incidents.

Hazard analysis↗
NASA NTRS2022

Supporting Hazard Analysis for Wildfire Response Using fmdtools and MIKA

The System Wide Safety (SWS) Safety Demonstrator (SD) Series drives development of an increasingly capable In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) focusing on humanitarian applications, starting with wildfire response (SD-1). The goals of this report are to (1) provide an early hazard analysis and mitigation evaluation of wildfire response to support these efforts and (2) provide a demonstration of capabilities of the Fault Model Design Tools (fmdtools) and Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) tools. fmdtools provides a modeling, simulation, and resiliency analysis framework in which a wildfire response model, the System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (SMARt-STEReO), is built. MIKA is an intelligent knowledge manager with several capabilities, including assisting in hazard analysis by extracting and analyzing hazards from historical incident reports. The following topics are covered in the report: Understanding Wildfire Hazard Dynamics. We provide a description and simulated examples of how hazards occur in the SMARt-STEReO model of wildfire response and their effect on its outcome. This provides a common mental model and focuses the analysis presented in the remainder of the report. Wildfire Hazard Identification. MIKA identifies wildfire hazards from three relevant datasets: the ICS-209-PLUS, SAFECOM, and SAFENET. Hazards are manually organized into a taxonomy and MIKA analyzes each hazard’s effects, likelihood, severity, and risk. Evaluating Mitigation Strategies. The SMARt-STEReO wildfire response model built in fmdtools evaluates a subset of identified hazards. Specifically, we simulate the effect of communications faults and equipment faults on operator safety, the effect of changing winds and flammability, and a scenario with multiple ignition points and heavy smoke. Tool Limitations and Usage Considerations. We provide a discussion of appropriate tool use cases as well as limitations and considerations for usage. The tool findings are used to synthesize recommendations for wildfire response operations, which can be captured as part of an IASMS. Key recommendations are as follows: Hazards are identified from a broad spectrum of sources including aircraft subsystems, operational sources, and ground crew operations. Highest risk operational environment hazards identified are Evacuations. The highest risk manned aerial operations hazard categorized is Jumper Operations Mishap. Ground crew hazards that are highest risk are Burns, Cargo Operations Overhead, Dehydration, Entrapment, Falling Objects, Heart Attacks, Heat Exhaustion, Inadequate Training or Certification, Vehicle Breakdown, and Vehicle Collision. Modelled containment failures arise from a mismatch between the difficulty of the firefighting scenario and the capacity (e.g., speed, effectiveness, awareness) of the response. In firefighting scenarios where containment is possible (e.g., because the fire does not spread too quickly), these mismatches can occur because of a change in environmental conditions (e.g., wind, flammability, etc) or because of planning, equipment, or communications faults. Improvements to communications increase the capacity of the firefighting response by reducing the time needed to respond to the fire. While surveillance does not increase this capacity by itself, it increases operator safety by increasing state awareness, enabling firefighters to evade approaching fires. Increasing both has a synergistic effect. In general, these performance and resilience increases generalize over fault scenarios as well as unforeseen changes to circumstances (i.e., wind, aridity, etc.). However, these improvements need to be designed so as not to make the system prone to persistent large-scale communications outages, which can reduce performance.

Hazard analysis↗
NASA NTRS2022

SWS TechTalk Systems Modelling for SWS Safety Demonstrator 1 (SD-1): Wildfire Response Operations

Build out a System Safety Model for System-Wide Safety’s first Technical Challenge 5 (TC5) Safety Demonstrator (SD-1), which will be a demonstration of an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System in emerging wildfire response operations. Supporting the Systems Engineer and using Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) practices, languages, and tools. Summer 2022 SD1 milestones: TC5-03-01 Initial Stakeholder Engagement Concept of Operations Development milestone and the upcoming TC5-03-02 Identification of key gaps and prioritization of NASA, SWS milestone.

model-based systems engineering↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Systems Model for System-Wide Safety Safety Demonstrator (SD-1): Wildfire Response Operations

The aim of this internship-based project was to contribute to the ongoing development of a systems model for System-Wide Safety’s first Technical Challenge 5 (TC5) series Safety Demonstrator (SD-1), which will be a demonstration of an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) in emerging wildfire response operations. Using Models-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) principles to develop the model, I organized and traced previously collected stakeholder needs from the Spring 2022 NASA System-Wide Safety Wildland Firefighting Operations Virtual Workshop (https://nari.arc.nasa.gov/sws-wildfire) to system elements, creating connections which can be used in the future by the project engineers to identify and address requirements gaps throughout the system design process. I also identified and modeled preliminary use case scenarios for aerial assets in the demonstrator and, building on previously produced preliminary high-level models of the 8 SD-1 Services, Functions, and Capabilities (SFCs) and their IASMS data flows, worked to model the Real-Time Risk Assessment (RTRA) tool as an implementation of Risk Assessment and Management that can take in multiple sets of data monitored by SFCs. Project deliverables include stakeholder requirements tables and matrices and systems model diagrams produced with MagicDraw software in the SysML Systems Modeling Language, with eventual plans to connect model diagrams to a Department of Defense Operational Viewpoint (OV-1) graphic, a high-level operational concept graphic that will be used to visualize the SD-1 scenarioin a future phase. The system model serves to provide a common understanding of the scope of and activities necessary for the completion of SD-1,and traces how stakeholder needs are to be addressed.

model-based systems engineering↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Test Exploration of Integrated Wildfire Response Operations with Crewed and Uncrewed Air Assets

Since 2016, JAXA and NASA have partnered to investigate the safe and efficient integration of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in disaster response operations. Through the collaboration, supporting systems from the respective agencies have been successfully integrated and demonstrated in multiple activities ranging from localized simulations and flight tests to large-scale national disaster drills. This paper describes findings from the most recent flight test by JAXA using a crewed helicopter conducting wildfire response operations in proximity to an area in which simulated small UAS, supported by UTM services, were conducting prescribed burn operations.

disaster response↗
DOE OSTI2022

Smoke from 2020 United States wildfires responsible for substantial solar energy forecast errors

Abstract The 2020 wildfire season (May through December) in the United States was exceptionally active, with the National Interagency Fire Center reporting over 10 million acres ( > 40 000 km 2 ) burned. During the September 2020 wildfire events, large concentrations of smoke particulates were emitted into the atmosphere. As a result, smoke was responsible for ∼10%–30% reduction in solar power production during peak hours as recorded by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) sites. In this study, we focus on a 9 d period in September when wildfire smoke had a profound impact on solar energy production. During the smoke episodes, hour-ahead forecasts utilized by CAISO did not include the effects of smoke and therefore overestimated the expected power production by ∼10%–50%. Here we use multiple observational networks and a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to show that the wildfire events of 2020 had a significantly detrimental influence on solar energy production due to high aerosol loading. We find that including the contribution of biomass burning particles greatly improves the day-ahead solar energy bias forecast of both global horizontal irradiance and direct normal irradiance by nearly ∼50%. Our results suggest that a more comprehensive treatment of aerosols, including biomass burning aerosols, in NWP models may be an important consideration for energy grid balancing, in addition to solar resource assessment, as solar power reliance increases.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Test Exploration of Integrated Wildfire Response Operations with Crewed and Uncrewed Air Assets

Since 2016, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and NASA have partnered to investigate the safe and efficient integration of uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) in disaster relief operations. Current disaster response operations would benefit from the use of UAS but are limited by the need for safe airspace integration technologies and enabling regulations. The work presented in this paper focuses on the safe integration of UAS and helicopters in active wildfire disaster response operations. The authors propose the use of mission planning and traffic management technologies, including onboard pilot situation awareness support technologies, to coordinate airspace operations between crewed and uncrewed aircraft (e.g., UAS). A representative wildfire scenario including a helicopter and UAS was developed. The helicopter mission included a flight path that mimicked the siphoning of water from a natural water reservoir (lake) and a subsequent water drop over vegetation along the progressing edge of a fire perimeter. Simulated UAS were assumed to conduct aerial ignition flights in the vicinity as part of a controlled burn of the vegetation ahead of the fire front to create a natural barrier between the fire and a nearby populated area. A situation awareness tool was developed and used to support the helicopter pilots’ task to stay clear of the volume of airspace where the UAS was conducting its operation while efficiently conducting the fire suppression mission. A flight test using JAXA’s experimental helicopter was conducted in August 2022 to validate the developed technology. The advantages of the developed technology were demonstrated, and pilot feedback confirmed that real-time awareness of the UAS operation airspace helped the flight planning and execution of a safe mission that minimized the flight time loss due to the potential interference with the UAS. Post-flight interviews with the pilots indicated no sufficient increase in the pilots’ workload and provided ideas for future technology development. Future research will provide recommendations to standards development organizations to support considerations for crewed-uncrewed interactions in disaster-response operations.

disaster response↗
NASA NTRS2023

Machine Learning Framework for Hazard Extraction and Analysis of Trends (HEAT) in Wildfire Response

This research proposes a natural language processing enabled risk analysis framework, named Hazard Extraction andAnalysis of Trends (HEAT), and applies the framework to the ICS-209-PLUS data set of wildfire incident responseforms. The HEAT framework produces safety- and risk- relevant analyses, consisting of: (1) a set of hazards extractedfrom text data, (2) a primary analysis using hazard-relevant metrics, such as rate and severity, to form an FMEA-styletable and risk matrix, (3) a time series analysis of metric trends, and (4) a secondary analysis examining potentialpredictors for hazards. Results from HEAT provide quantitative risk-relevant information for high-level hazards doc-umented in existing-state operations. Because of the generalizability of the steps and limited data requirements, HEATcan be applied to any dataset containing narrative text, thus providing a framework for data-driven machine learning-enabled quantitative risk analysis across a variety of domains. To demonstrate HEAT in a case study, we apply theframework to the ICS-209-PLUS dataset of wildland fire incident response forms. Hazards identified in wildfire re-sponse arise from environmental conditions, the mission, and the wildland urban interface. The resulting risk matrixidentifies evacuations as high-risk hazards, while all other identified hazards are medium or serious risk.

natural language processing↗
NASA NTRS2022

Evaluation and Improvement of System-of-Systems Resilience in a Simulation of Wildfire Emergency Response

Because of the increasing threat that wildfires pose, there is interest in leveraging new technologies to improve firefighting. Specifically, Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and UAS Traffic Management (UTM) promise to improve firefighters’ situational awareness, coordination, communications, safety, and strategy. While these technologies could be beneficial, there has been little formal investigation into how much benefit would occur and whether these benefits would outweigh hazards introduced by these systems. To better understand the impacts of these technologies, this paper presents a high-level dynamic simulation for evaluating wildfire response performance and resilience incorporating fire propagation, surveillance and communication, response planning, and the resulting mitigation actions. This simulation is then used to study the impact of communications and surveillance improvement, considering (1) the effect on fire containment and ground crew injuries and (2) the effect of introduced and existing disruptive fault scenarios. Simulating this model over a large number of scenarios finds that these changes can improve containment and reduce ground crew injuries. While these improvements generalize over both existing and introduced single-fault scenarios and thus result in a more resilient system, they could be negated if the introduced communications infrastructure is prone to full-scale outages.

modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Input from Wildfire Incident Experts to Identify Key Risks and Hazards in Wildfire Emergency Response

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) describes wildland fires as, “a force of nature that can be nearly as impossible to prevent, and as difficult to control, as hurricanes, tornadoes and floods.” Existing challenges in managing wildland fires often put first responders’ lives at risk. The emergence of drones and their capabilities to supplement human efforts could alleviate some, if not all, of those risks that first responders face during wildfire management efforts. However, the process of adding drones to wildfire response has come with its own challenges as well. NASA’s System-Wide Safety Project is working towards overcoming these challenges to enable routine transfer of risk from responders to aviation assets. The concept of operations and model-based systems engineering (MBSE) effort for this shift is underway. To inform and to validate the MBSE effort, we delivered a questionnaire to wildland firefighting experts on the hazards they currently face. This questionnaire has given us insight and a better understanding of the challenges related to the use of drones from a first responder’s point of view. We are using this information to better address responders’ concerns, develop a safety management system, and eliminate the roadblocks that prevent the use of drones in wildfire management.

Wildfire↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript on a meta-analysis synthesizing stream biogeochemical response to wildfires across space and time (v2)

This data package is associated with the publication “Catchment characteristics modulate the influence of wildfires on nitrate and dissolved organic carbon in lotic systems across space and time: A meta-analysis” submitted to Global Biogeochemical Cycles (Cavaiani et al. 2025). This study uses meta-analytical techniques to evaluate the effect of wildfire on in-stream responses in burned and unburned watersheds. The study aims to provide additional insight into the range of responses and net influences that wildfires have on hydro-biogeochemistry across broad spatial scales, burn extents, and the persistence of water-quality change. This study compiles data and metadata from 18 total publications that includes 1) surface water geochemistry data (dissolved organic carbon; nitrate), 2) climate classifications, 3) year of the wildfire, 4) the time lag between when the fire occurred and when the sampling occurred, and 5) study design of the publication. In total, this meta-analysis draws data that spans 8 climate guilds, 3 biomes, 62 watersheds, and 20 unique wildfires. See Sites_meta_data.csv for citations of the papers used in this meta-analysis. All R scripts and the associated data can also be found on GitHub at This data package was originally published in March 2024. It was updated in April 2025 (v2; new and modified files). See the change history section in the readme for more details. This data package contains five primary folders that include the following: (1) inputs; (2) output for analysis; (3) initial plots; (4) R scripts; and (5) GIS data. The data package also contains a data dictionary (dd) that provides column header definitions and a file-level metadata (flmd) file that describes every file. The “inputs” folder contains a list of all publications identified during the formal web search and an indication of whether each publication was included in the final analysis. Additionally, it includes site-level metadata, catchment characteristics, and GIS data for all publications included in the final analysis. The “Output_for_analysis” folder contains all data frames and figures generated from each R script used for additional data analysis. The “initial_plots” folder includes all exploratory figures that will be included in a supplemental and figures that will be submitted with the manuscript for publication. The “R_scripts” folder contains the scripts that perform all the data manipulations, statistical analyses, and plots. The “gis_data” folder includes shape files for each fire included in this meta-analysis. This data package contains the following file types: csv, pdf, jpeg, cpg, dbf, prj, shp, shp.ea.iso.xml, shp.iso.xml, shx.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗