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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Wind power production from very large offshore wind farms

In this work, we provide the first quantitative assessment of power production and wake generation from offshore wind energy lease areas along the U.S. east coast. Deploying 15-MW wind turbines, with spacing equal to the European average, yields electricity production of 116 TWh/year or 3% of current national supply. However, power production is reduced by one-third due to wakes caused by upwind wind turbines and wind farms. Under some flow conditions whole wind-farm wakes can extend up to 90 km downwind of the largest lease areas, and the frequency-weighted average area with a 5% velocity deficit is 2.6 times the footprint of the lease areas. Simulations including maritime corridors demonstrate reduction in the wake effects leading to power-efficiency gains and may offer contingent benefits. First-order scaling rules are developed that describe how “wake shadows” from large offshore wind farms scale with prevailing meteorology and wind turbine installed densities.

15 MW↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the effect of wind speed and direction shear on utility‐scale wind turbine power production

Abstract Wind speed and direction variations across the rotor affect power production. As utility‐scale turbines extend higher into the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) with larger rotor diameters and hub heights, they increasingly encounter more complex wind speed and direction variations. We assess three models for power production that account for wind speed and direction shear. Two are based on actuator disc representations, and the third is a blade element representation. We also evaluate the predictions from a standard power curve model that has no knowledge of wind shear. The predictions from each model, driven by wind profile measurements from a profiling LiDAR, are compared to concurrent power measurements from an adjacent utility‐scale wind turbine. In the field measurements of the utility‐scale turbine, discrete combinations of speed and direction shear induce changes in power production of −19% to +34% relative to the turbine power curve for a given hub height wind speed. Positive speed shear generally corresponds to over‐performance and increasing magnitudes of direction shear to greater under‐performance, relative to the power curve. Overall, the blade element model produces both higher correlation and lower error relative to the other models, but its quantitative accuracy depends on induction and controller sub‐models. To further assess the influence of complex, non‐monotonic wind profiles, we also drive the models with best‐fit power law wind speed profiles and linear wind direction profiles. These idealized inputs produce qualitative and quantitative differences in power predictions from each model, demonstrating that time‐varying, non‐monotonic wind shear affects wind power production.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2016

Wind turbine power production and annual energy production depend on atmospheric stability and turbulence

Using detailed upwind and nacelle-based measurements from a General Electric (GE) 1.5sle model with a 77 m rotor diameter, we calculate power curves and annual energy production (AEP) and explore their sensitivity to different atmospheric parameters to provide guidelines for the use of stability and turbulence filters in segregating power curves. The wind measurements upwind of the turbine include anemometers mounted on a 135 m meteorological tower as well as profiles from a lidar. We calculate power curves for different regimes based on turbulence parameters such as turbulence intensity (TI) as well as atmospheric stability parameters such as the bulk Richardson number ( R B ). We also calculate AEP with and without these atmospheric filters and highlight differences between the results of these calculations. The power curves for different TI regimes reveal that increased TI undermines power production at wind speeds near rated, but TI increases power production at lower wind speeds at this site, the US Department of Energy (DOE) National Wind Technology Center (NWTC). Similarly, power curves for different R B regimes reveal that periods of stable conditions produce more power at wind speeds near rated and periods of unstable conditions produce more power at lower wind speeds. AEP results suggest that calculations without filtering for these atmospheric regimes may overestimate the AEP. Because of statistically significant differences between power curves and AEP calculated with these turbulence and stability filters for this turbine at this site, we suggest implementing an additional step in analyzing power performance data to incorporate effects of atmospheric stability and turbulence across the rotor disk.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Maximization of the annual energy production of wind power plants by optimization of layout and yaw-based wake control: Maximization of wind plant AEP by optimization of layout and wake control

This paper presents a wind plant modeling and optimization tool that enables the maximization of wind plant annual energy production (AEP) using yaw-based wake steering control and layout changes. The tool is an extension of a wake engineering model describing the steady-state effects of yaw on wake velocity profiles and power productions of wind turbines in a wind plant. To make predictions of a wind plant's AEP, necessary extensions of the original wake model include coupling it with a detailed rotor model and a control policy for turbine blade pitch and rotor speed. This enables the prediction of power production with wake effects throughout a range of wind speeds. We use the tool to perform an example optimization study on a wind plant based on the Princess Amalia Wind Park. In this case study, combined optimization of layout and wake steering control increases AEP by 5%. The power gains from wake steering control are highest for region 1.5 inflow wind speeds, and they continue to be present to some extent for the above-rated inflow wind speeds. The results show that layout optimization and wake steering are complementary because significant AEP improvements can be achieved with wake steering in a wind plant layout that is already optimized to reduce wake losses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

The importance of atmospheric turbulence and stability in machine-learning models of wind farm power production

Machine learning is frequently applied in the wind energy industry to build statistical models of wind farm power production using atmospheric data as input. In the field of wind power forecasting, in particular, there has been substantial research into finding the best-performing learning algorithms that improve model predictions. Overlooked in the literature, however, is the influence of atmospheric turbulence and stability measurements in improving model predictions. It has been well-established through observations and physical models that these effects can have considerable influence on wind farm power production; yet consideration of these effects in statistical models is almost entirely absent from the literature. In this work, we examine the impact of atmospheric turbulence and stability inputs on statistical model predictions of wind farm power output. Hourly observations from a wind farm in the Pacific Northwest United States located in very complex terrain are used. Five common learning algorithms and nine atmospheric variables are considered, five of which represent some measure of turbulence or stability. Here, we find a considerable improvement in hourly power predictions when some measure of turbulence or stability is included in the model. In particular, turbulent kinetic energy was found to be the most important variable apart from wind speed and more important than wind direction, pressure, and temperature. By contrast, the choice of learning algorithm is shown to be relatively less important in improving predictions. Based on this work, we recommend that turbulence and stability variables become standard inputs into statistical models of wind farm power production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part III: Variability

Abstract Daily expected wind power production from operating wind farms across North America are used to evaluate capacity factors (CF) computed using simulation output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and to condition statistical models linking atmospheric conditions to electricity production. In Parts I and II of this work, we focus on making projections of annual energy production and the occurrence of electrical production drought. Here, we extend evaluation of the CF projections for sites in the Northeast, Midwest, southern Great Plains (SGP), and southwest U.S. coast (SWC) using statewide wind-generated electricity supply to the grid. We then quantify changes in the time scales of CF variability and the seasonality. Currently, wind-generated electricity is lowest in summer in each region except SWC, which causes a substantial mismatch with electricity demand. While electricity of residential heating may shift demand, research presented here suggests that summertime CF are likely to decline, potentially exacerbating the offset between seasonal peak power production and current load. The reduction in summertime CF is manifest for all regions except the SGP and appears to be linked to a reduction in synoptic-scale variability. Using fulfillment of 50% and 90% of annual energy production to quantify interannual variability, it is shown that wind power production exhibits higher (earlier fulfillment) or lower (later fulfillment) production for periods of over 10–30 years as a result of the action of internal climate modes. Significance Statement Electrical power system reassessment and redesign may be needed to aid efficient increased use of variable renewables in the generation of electricity. Currently wind-generated electricity in many regions of North America exhibits a minimum in summertime and hence is not well synchronized with electricity demand, which tends to be maximized in summer. Future projections indicate evidence of reductions in wind power during summer that would amplify this offset. However, electrification of heating may lead to increased wintertime demand, which would lead to greater synchronization.

Coburn, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2016

Wind Power Ramping Product for Increasing Power System Flexibility

With increasing penetrations of wind power, system operators are concerned about a potential lack of system flexibility and ramping capacity in real-time dispatch stages. In this paper, a modified dispatch formulation is proposed considering the wind power ramping product (WPRP). A swinging door algorithm (SDA) and dynamic programming are combined and used to detect WPRPs in the next scheduling periods. The detected WPRPs are included in the unit commitment (UC) formulation considering ramping capacity limits, active power limits, and flexible ramping requirements. The modified formulation is solved by mixed integer linear programming. Numerical simulations on a modified PJM 5-bus System show the effectiveness of the model considering WPRP, which not only reduces the production cost but also does not affect the generation schedules of thermal units.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wind Shear and Wind Veer Effects on Wind Turbines

This chapter highlights key contributions to the scientific literature on the sources of wind shear and wind veer in the atmospheric boundary layer, observations of shear and veer, and the effects of shear and veer on wind turbine power production, wind turbine wake evolution, and wind turbine loads. As wind turbines have grown larger, they encounter deeper and more complicated regions of the atmosphere. Over this height, profiles of wind speed shear and wind direction veer play a quantifiable role. Changes in the wind speed and wind direction across the vertical extent of a wind turbine rotor disk modify the inflow vector on the blades of the turbine, thereby affecting the magnitude and orientation of the lift and drag forces of the blade's airfoil. These changes can affect the power production and loads on large modern turbines, as well as the evolution of the wake that could affect a downwind turbine.

atmospheric stability↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wind ramp events validation in NWP forecast models during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) using the Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M)

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a multi-agency field campaign held in the Columbia Gorge area (October 2015 - March 2017). The main goal of the project is to understand and improve the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in complex terrain, particularly beneficial for the wind energy industry. This region is well-known for its excellent wind resource. One of the biggest challenges for wind power production is the accurate forecasting of wind ramp events (large changes of generated power over short periods of time). Poor forecasting of the ramps requires large and sudden adjustments in conventional power generation, ultimately increasing the costs of power. A Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) was developed during the first WFIP experiment, held in the U.S. Great Plains (September 2011 - August 2012). The RT&M was designed to explicitly measure the skill of NWP models at forecasting wind ramp events. Here we apply the RT&M to 80-m (turbine hub-height) wind speeds measured by 19 sodars and 3 lidars, and to forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), 3-km, and from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST), 750-m horizontal grid spacing, models. The diurnal and seasonal distribution of ramp events are analyzed, finding a noticeable diurnal variability for spring and summer but less for fall and especially winter. Also, winter has fewer ramps compared to the other seasons. The model skill at forecasting ramp events, including the impact of the modification to the model physical parameterizations, was finally investigated.

Djalalova, Irina V.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling

Abstract Capacity factors (CFs) derived from daily expected power at 22 operating wind farms in different regions of North America are used as predictands to train statistical downscaling algorithms using output from ERA5. The statistical downscaling models are then used to make CF projections for a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). Downscaling is performed using a hybrid statistical approach that employs synoptic types derived using k -means clustering applied to sea level pressure fields with variance corrections applied as a function of the pressure gradient intensity. ESMs exhibit marked variability in terms of the skill with which the frequency of synoptic types and pressure gradients are reproduced relative to ERA5, and that differential skill is used to infer differential credibility in the associated CF projections. Projections of median annual mean CF [P50(CF)] in each 20-yr period from 1980 to 2099 show evidence of declines at most wind farms except in parts of the southern Great Plains, although the magnitude of the changes is strongly dependent on the ESM. For example, P50(CF) in 2080–99 deviate from those in 1980–99 by from −3.1 to +0.2 percentage points in the Northeast. The largest-magnitude declines in P50(CF) ranging from −3.9 to −2 percentage points are projected for the southern West Coast. CF trends exhibit marked seasonality and are strongly linked to changes in the relative intensity of future synoptic patterns, with much less impact from shifts in the occurrence of synoptic types over time. Internal climate modes continue to play a significant role in inducing interannual variability in wind power production, even under high radiative forcing scenarios. Significance Statement We describe how future climate changes may affect wind resources and wind power generation. Near-term changes in projected wind power electricity generation potential at operating wind farms over North America are small, but by the end of the current century electricity production is projected to decrease in many areas but may increase in parts of the southern Great Plains. The amount of change in projected wind power production is a strong function of the Earth system model that is downscaled and also depends on the continued presence of internally forced climate variability. An additional dependence on the amount of greenhouse gas–induced global warming indicates the transition of the energy sector to low-carbon sources may assist in maintaining the abundant U.S. wind resource.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative comparison of power production and power quality onshore and offshore: a case study from the eastern United States

Abstract. A major issue in quantifying potential power generation from prospective wind energy sites is the lack of observations from heights relevant to modern wind turbines, particularly for offshore where blade tip heights are projected to increase beyond 250 m. We present analyses of uniquely detailed data sets from lidar (light detection and ranging) deployments in New York State and on two buoys in the adjacent New York Bight to examine the relative power generation potential and power quality at these on- and offshore locations. Time series of 10 min wind power production are computed from these wind speeds using the power curve from the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference wind turbine. Given the relatively close proximity of these lidar deployments, they share a common synoptic-scale meteorology and seasonal variability with lowest wind speeds in July and August. Time series of power production from the on- and offshore location are highly spatially correlated with the Spearman rank correlation coefficient dropping below 0.4 for separation distances of approximately 350 km. Hence careful planning of on- and offshore wind farms (i.e., separation of major plants by > 350 km) can be used reduce the system-wide probability of low wind energy power production. Energy density at 150 m height at the offshore buoys is more than 40 % higher, and the Weibull scale parameter is 2 m s−1 higher than at all but one of the land sites. Analyses of power production time series indicate annual energy production is almost twice as high for the two offshore locations. Further, electrical power production quality is higher from the offshore sites that exhibit a lower amplitude of diurnal variability, plus a lower probability of wind speeds below the cut-in and of ramp events of any magnitude. Despite this and the higher resource, the estimated levelized cost of energy (LCoE) is higher from the offshore sites mainly due to the higher infrastructure costs. Nonetheless, the projected LCoE is highly competitive from all sites considered.

Foody, Rebecca↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal variability of wake impacts on US mid-Atlantic offshore wind plant power production

Abstract. The mid-Atlantic will experience rapid wind plant development due to its promising wind resource located near large population centers. Wind turbines and wind plants create wakes, or regions of reduced wind speed, that may negatively affect downwind turbines and plants. We evaluate wake variability and annual energy production with the first yearlong modeling assessment using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, deploying 12 MW turbines across the domain at a density of 3.14 MW km−2, matching the planned density of 3 MW km−2. Using a series of simulations with no wind plants, one wind plant, and complete build-out of lease areas, we calculate wake effects and distinguish the effect of wakes generated internally within one plant from those generated externally between plants. We also provide a first step towards uncertainty quantification by testing the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) by 0 % and 100 %. We provide a sensitivity analysis by additionally comparing 25 % and 50 % for a short case study period. The strongest wakes, propagating 55 km, occur in summertime stable stratification, just when New England's grid demand peaks in summer. The seasonal variability of wakes in this offshore region is much stronger than the diurnal variability of wakes. Overall, yearlong simulated wake impacts reduce power output by a range between 38.2 % and 34.1 % (for 0 %–100 % added TKE). Internal wakes cause greater yearlong power losses, from 29.2 % to 25.7 %, compared to external wakes, from 14.7 % to 13.4 %. The overall impact is different from the linear sum of internal wakes and external wakes due to non-linear processes. Additional simulations quantify wake uncertainty by modifying the added amount of turbulent kinetic energy from wind turbines, introducing power output variability of 3.8 %. Finally, we compare annual energy production to New England grid demand and find that the lease areas can supply 58.8 % to 61.2 % of annual load. We note that the results of this assessment are not intended to make nor are they suitable to make commercial judgments about specific wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flow Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) Wind Plant Power Production Data Sets

This dataset contains turbine- and plant-level power outputs for 252,500 cases of diverse wind plant layouts operating under a wide range of yawing and atmospheric conditions. The power outputs were computed using the Gaussian wake model in NREL's FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) model, version 2.3.0. The 252,500 cases include 500 unique wind plants generated randomly by a specialized Plant Layout Generator (PLayGen) that samples randomized realizations of wind plant layouts from one of four canonical configurations: (i) cluster, (ii) single string, (iii) multiple string, (iv) parallel string. Other wind plant layout parameters were also randomly sampled, including the number of turbines (25-200) and the mean turbine spacing (3D-10D, where D denotes the turbine rotor diameter). For each layout, 500 different sets of atmospheric conditions were randomly sampled. These include wind speed in 0-25 m/s, wind direction in 0 deg.-360 deg., and turbulence intensity chosen from low (6%), medium (8%), and high (10%). For each atmospheric inflow scenario, the individual turbine yaw angles were randomly sampled from a one-sided truncated Gaussian on the interval 0 deg.-30 deg. oriented relative to wind inflow direction. This random data is supplemented with a collection of yaw-optimized samples where FLORIS was used to determine turbine yaw angles that maximize power production for the entire plant. To generate this data, a subset of cases were selected (50 atmospheric conditions from 50 layouts each for a total of additional 2,500 cases) for which FLORIS was re-run with wake steering control optimization. The IEA onshore reference turbine, which has a 130 m rotor diameter, a 110 m hub height, and a rated power capacity of 3.4 MW was used as the turbine for all simulations. The simulations were performed using NREL's Eagle high performance computing system in February 2021 as part of the Spatial Analysis for Wind Technology Development project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office. The data was collected, reformatted, and preprocessed for this OEDI submission in May 2023 under the Foundational AI for Wind Energy project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office. This dataset is intended to serve as a benchmark against which new artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) tools may be tested. Baseline AI/ML methods for analyzing this dataset have been implemented, and a link to their repository containing those models has been provided. The .h5 data file structure can be found in the GitHub repository under explore_wind_plant_data_h5.ipynb.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2014

Guide to Using the WIND Toolkit Validation Code

In response to the U.S. Department of Energy's goal of using 20% wind energy by 2030, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit was created to provide information on wind speed, wind direction, temperature, surface air pressure, and air density on more than 126,000 locations across the United States from 2007 to 2013. The numerical weather prediction model output, gridded at 2-km and at a 5-minute resolution, was further converted to detail the wind power production time series of existing and potential wind facility sites. For users of the dataset it is important that the information presented in the WIND Toolkit is accurate and that errors are known, as then corrective steps can be taken. Therefore, we provide validation code written in R that will be made public to provide users with tools to validate data of their own locations. Validation is based on statistical analyses of wind speed, using error metrics such as bias, root-mean-square error, centered root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, and percent error. Plots of diurnal cycles, annual cycles, wind roses, histograms of wind speed, and quantile-quantile plots are created to visualize how well observational data compares to model data. Ideally, validation will confirm beneficial locations to utilize wind energy and encourage regional wind integration studies using the WIND Toolkit.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Use Cases and Types of Databases for Hosting Wind Power Data

The goal of the National Wind Power Production Data Dashboard project is to develop a publicly available platform to model, process, and share wind power with uncertainty quantification for the current and future onshore and offshore wind plants across the continental United States. As of 2021, more than 70,000 utility-scale wind turbines have been installed across the United States and this number is expected to grow in the next few years. A large-scale wind power production database is needed for stakeholders (policy makers, operators, and researchers) to access easily for their decision-making. Currently, meeting that need is a challenge. Most wind power operators and system operators focus on regions of their own interest, and the data are usually inaccessible to the public.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of the wind farm parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.8.1) with meteorological and turbine power data

Forecasts of wind-power production are necessary to facilitate the integration of wind energy into power grids, and these forecasts should incorporate the impact of wind-turbine wakes. Our paper focuses on a case study of four diurnal cycles with significant power production, and assesses the skill of the wind farm parameterization (WFP) distributed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.8.1, as well as its sensitivity to model configuration. After validating the simulated ambient flow with observations, we quantify the value of the WFP as it accounts for wake impacts on power production of downwind turbines. We also illustrate with statistical significance that a vertical grid with approximately 12 m vertical resolution is necessary for reproducing the observed power production. Further, the WFP overestimates wake effects and hence underestimates downwind power production during high wind speed, highly stable, and low turbulence conditions. We also find the WFP performance is independent of the number of wind turbines per model grid cell and the upwind–downwind position of turbines. Rather, the ability of the WFP to predict power production is most dependent on the skill of the WRF model in simulating the ambient wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Overview and Meteorological Validation of the Wind Integration National Dataset toolkit

The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this report fulfills these requirements, and constitutes a state-of-the-art national wind resource data set covering the contiguous United States from 2007 to 2013 for use in a variety of next-generation wind integration analyses and wind power planning. The toolkit is a wind resource data set, wind forecast data set, and wind power production and forecast data set derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. WIND Toolkit data are available online for over 116,000 land-based and 10,000 offshore sites representing existing and potential wind facilities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗