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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Application of a machine learning algorithm (XGBoost) to offline RHIC luminosity optimization

The operation parameter optimization in 2020 RHIC low energy run is difficult. First, the RHIC luminosity is affected by many RHIC operation parameters, as well as affected by many Low Energy RHIC electron Cooling (LEReC) operation parameters. Second, the luminosity signal in this run is noisy and not sensitive to these parameter changes, especially when these parameters are very close to their optimized values. It is not easy to distinguish the effects of one parameter from all other operation parameters separately. Therefore, it is difficult to optimize the luminosity by varying these parameters one by one. To find a way for luminosity optimization, we analyze some operation parameters via a machine learning algorithm - XGBoost. After constructing a black-box surrogate model from XGBoost and plotting their partial dependency plots (PDF) and SHAP value plots for different operation parameters, we can find the effects of an individual parameter on the RHIC luminosity and optimize it accordingly.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast Evaluation of Aircraft Icing Severity Using Machine Learning Based on XGBoost

Aircraft icing represents a serious hazard in aviation which has caused a number of fatal accidents over the years. In addition, it can lead to substantial increase in drag and weight, thus reducing the aerodynamics performance of the airplane. The process of ice accretion on a solid surface is a complex interaction of aerodynamic and environmental variables. The complex relationship makes machine learning-based methods an attractive alternative to traditional numerical simulation-based approaches. In this study, we introduce a purely data-driven approach to find the complex pattern between different flight conditions and aircraft icing severity prediction. The supervised learning algorithm Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) is applied to establish the prediction framework which makes prediction based on any set of observations. The input flight conditions for the proposed prediction framework are liquid water content, droplet diameter and exposure time. The proposed approach is demonstrated in three cases: maximum ice thickness prediction, icing area prediction and icing severity level evaluation. Performance comparison studies and error analysis are also conducted to verify the effectiveness and performance of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method has reasonable capability in evaluating aircraft icing severity.

Li, Sibo (ORCID:000000021705844X)↗
DOE OSTI2024

EBIS Beam Intensity Online Optimization with GPTune and Offline Analysis with XGBoost

The application of machine learning techniques to accelerator research has led to significant breakthroughs in optimization strategies. This paper presents a pioneering study using a novel machine learning algorithm, GPTune, to optimize beam intensity by adjusting parameters in the EBIS injection and extraction beam lines. Our research demonstrates substantial improvements, achieving a remarkable 22% and 70% increase in beam intensity at two separate measurement locations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping tree height in complex terrain of northern China using ultra-high-resolution images

Tree height is a key parameter for estimating forest biomass and carbon sequestration. In recent years, notable progress has been made in mapping tree height using satellite imagery. However, existing tree height products show low accuracy in mountainous and complex terrains, and few studies typically addressed tree height estimations in mountain areas. This study examines the Mentougou district of Beijing, China, characterized by complex terrain and mountainous landscapes. We analyzed two methods for estimating tree height: one using only spectral features and another combining spectral features with topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect). We used 3-m resolution PlanetScope 8-band multispectral imagery, with 710 field-measured individual tree heights averaged to obtain 471 pixel-level tree height values as ground-truth, to develop tree height prediction models using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) models. The results show that the XGBoost model consistently presented the highest accuracy for both methods evaluated. Specifically, the XGBoost model that combined spectral data with elevation and slope variables with an R² of 0.75 and an RMSE of 2.69 m. Using the XGBoost model, we generated the tree height map for the Mentougou area at 3 m resolution, showing tree heights ranging from 0.5 to 30.4 m, and the model’s prediction error standard deviations ranged from 2.50 to 4.71 m, indicating reliable performance across varied terrain. Additionally, we compared and evaluated the global tree height products, identifying limitations in the accuracy within complex terrains. This study demonstrates the potential for accurately predicting tree heights by combining high-resolution multispectral satellites with a terrain factor modeling approach.

Complex terrain↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning–assisted prediction of heat fluxes through thermally anisotropic building envelopes

Thermally anisotropic building envelope (TABE) is a novel active building envelope that can save energy use to maintain thermal comfort in buildings by redirecting heat and coolness from building envelopes to thermal loops. Finite element models (FEMs) can be used to compute the heat fluxes through TABEs, but the high computational cost of finite element simulations has prevented parametric studies and design optimizations. This paper proposes a domain knowledge–informed, finite element–based machine learning framework to reduce the computation cost for the energy management of buildings installed with TABE that uses a ground thermal loop. First, the training heat flux data set was generated by FEM simulations with different thermal loop schedules. Then, both shallow learning models (i.e., multivariate linear regression and eXtreme Gradient Boost, or XGBoost) and a deep learning model (i.e., deep neural network, or DNN) were trained to predict the heat fluxes. Domain knowledge was used for data preprocessing and feature selection. Finally, the suitability of the selected machine learning model was tested under different thermal loop schedules. Herein, the case study results showed that: (1) XGBoost can be as accurate as DNN (coefficient of determination equal to 0.81) with much less training time; (2) the annual energy cost savings for different thermal loop schedules obtained by the XGBoost-predicted and FEM-calculated heat fluxes are consistent, having a difference of only 4%; and (3) XGBoost can reduce the computation time for the annual energy analysis of the case study building with a given thermal loop schedule from around 12 h by using FEM to less than 1 min.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Part II, Machine Learning and Model Interpretability

Machine learning (ML) models have been applied to forecast solar energy; however, they often lack clarity of interpretability and underlying physics. This work addresses such challenges by developing a hierarchy of ML models that gradually introduce predictors to improve the forecast accuracy based on a physics-based framework. Three ML models (ARIMA, LSTM, and XGBoost) are examined and compared with four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I and the simple persistence model to assess the improvement of different models. The 7-year measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Southern Great Plains Central Facility site are used for forecasts and evaluations. The results reveal that the step-by-step introduction of predictors leads to different improvements for models at different hierarchical levels. Comparison of the ML models with persistence models shows that LSTM and XGBoost outperform all the persistence models, with LSTM having the overall best performance; however, ARIMA underperforms the four physics-informed persistence models. This study demonstrates the importance and utility of incorporating physics into ML models in improving forecast accuracy by introducing a hierarchy of physics-based predictors, distinguishing predictor contributions, and enhancing the ML interpretability. The combined use of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) significantly improves the forecast accuracy compared to using individual irradiances alone because the pair contains more information on cloud-radiation interactions.

interpretability↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the dependence of gas cooling and heating functions on the incident radiation field with machine learning

ABSTRACT Gas cooling and heating functions play a crucial role in galaxy formation. But, it is computationally expensive to exactly compute these functions in the presence of an incident radiation field. These computations can be greatly sped up by using interpolation tables of pre-computed values, at the expense of making significant and sometimes even unjustified approximations. Here, we explore the capacity of machine learning to approximate cooling and heating functions with a generalized radiation field. Specifically, we use the machine learning algorithm XGBoost to predict cooling and heating functions calculated with the photoionization code cloudy at fixed metallicity, using different combinations of photoionization rates as features. We perform a constrained quadratic fit in metallicity to enable a fair comparison with traditional interpolation methods at arbitrary metallicity. We consider the relative importance of various photoionization rates through both a principal component analysis (PCA) and calculation of SHapley Additive exPlanation (shap) values for our XGBoost models. We use feature importance information to select different subsets of rates to use in model training. Our XGBoost models outperform a traditional interpolation approach at each fixed metallicity, regardless of feature selection. At arbitrary metallicity, we are able to reduce the frequency of the largest cooling and heating function errors compared to an interpolation table. We find that the primary bottleneck to increasing accuracy lies in accurately capturing the metallicity dependence. This study demonstrates the potential of machine learning methods such as XGBoost to capture the non-linear behaviour of cooling and heating functions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimized Machine Learning Model for Predicting Groundwater Contamination

The use of physical models to predict groundwater contaminant movement remains technically challenging due to the complexity of the phenomena, the heterogeneity of key parameters in nature, and the presence of poorly defined interactive and feedback processes. New approaches to address these challenges are needed. In this study, we evaluate various Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based approaches to understand a hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) plumes located on the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Hanford Site in Richland, WA. The groundwater monitoring dataset used in this study included data from the 100 Area along the Columbia River and included data collected between 2010 to 2019. This study investigates the most prominent contaminant, Cr(VI), with the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning model. The XGBoost models were compared with optimized versions using an Empirical Bayes Search Cross-Validation technique for better prediction. The optimized XGBoost model yielded an R^2 value of 0.99 on the training set and 0.85 on the testing set, whereas XGBoost without optimization yielded a value of 0.83 on the training set and 0.85 on the testing set. This paper provides an overview of a computational method for groundwater contamination modeling that shows promise for improving current remediation efforts.

Mazumdar, Hirak↗
DOE OSTI2020

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Finally, our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment (i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features (i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms (e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods (e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Detection of Primary Biological Aerosol Particles Using Machine Learning and Single-Particle Measurement

Accurately identifying primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) using analytical techniques poses inherent challenges due to their resemblance to other atmospheric carbonaceous particles. Here, we present a study of an enhanced method for detecting PBAPs by combining single-particle measurement with advanced supervised machine learning (SML) techniques. We analyzed ambient particles from a variety of environments and lab-generated standards, focusing on chemical composition for traditional rule-based and clustering approaches and incorporating morphological features into the SML approaches, neural networks and XGBoost, for improved accuracy. This study demonstrates that SML methods outperform traditional methods in quantifying PBAPs, achieving significant improvements in precision, recall, F1-score, and accuracy, leading to an increased number of detected PBAPs by at least 19%. The adaptability of the proposed XGBoost-based SML model is showcased in comparison to traditional methods in categorizing PBAPs for blind data sets from different geographical locations. Two field case studies were investigated, over agricultural land and Amazonia rain forest, representing relatively low and high concentrations of PBAPs, respectively, where XGBoost consistently detected up to 3.5 times more PBAPs than traditional methods. Precise detection of PBAPs in the atmosphere could significantly improve the prediction of climatic impacts by them.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

At Risk Population Estimates for Belarus, Poland and Slovakia with Machine Learning

High-resolution gridded population modeling is crucial for various applications, including disaster response planning, infectious disease spread modeling, climate change impact estimation, policy development, and more. Multiple gridded population datasets have been developed, each tailored to meet specific objectives. Among them, LandScan Global dataset is designed to represent ambient and unwarned population distributions. However, this dataset relies on a statistical approach that requires manual adjustments, making it time consuming and labour intensive. Existing machine learning (ML) methods often train and test at different spatial resolutions, potentially leading to inflated results, and they rely on Census population totals for disaggregation. To address these limitations, in this study we developed population estimates using ML models trained and tested at a consistent 30 arc-second resolution (≈1 square kilometer), specifically using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. These models were trained on 2020 datum to predict for 2021 for three countries: Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Our findings show that both RF (MAE varies from 5.75 to 13.25) and XGBoost (MAE varies from 8.15 to 23.44) model performance is close to LandScan Global estimates. Furthermore, neither of the models performed the best across all grid cells: the RF model was more effective in areas with lower populations, while XGBoost excelled in more densely populated regions. The proposed approach can be used for countries where the Census data is not available.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fair Bagging Boosting Models [SWR-24-38]

Fair Bagging Boosting Models is a software implementation of a framework for building, measuring bias and correcting bias in 3 popular forest machine learning models: gradient boosted trees (GBT), random forest (RF), and XGBoost models, using the XGBoost library. The framework takes advantage of the flexibility in XGBoost library to represent gradient boosted tree and random forest models, as well as the ability to use custom loss function.

Ugirumurera, Juliette↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporal features of traffic help reduce automatic accident detection time

Quick and reliable automatic detection of traffic accidents is of paramount importance to save human lives in transportation systems. However, automatically detecting when accidents occur has proven challenging, and minimizing the time to detect accidents (TTDA) by using traditional features in machine learning (ML) classifiers has plateaued. We hypothesize that accidents affect traffic farther from the accident location than previously reported. Therefore, leveraging traffic signatures from neighboring sensors that are adjacent to accidents should help improve their detection. We confirm this hypothesis by using verified ground-truth accident data, traffic data from radar detection system sensors, and light and weather conditions and show that we can minimize the TTDA while maximizing classification performance by considering spatiotemporal features of traffic. Specifically, we compare the performance of different ML classifiers (i.e, logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost) when controlling for different numbers of neighboring sensors and TTDA horizons. We use data from interstates 75 and 24 in the metropolitan area that surrounds Chattanooga, TN. Our results show that the XGBoost classifier produces the best results by detecting accidents as quickly as 1.0 min after their occurrence with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of up to 83% and an average precision of up to 49%. We describe limitations, open challenges, and how the proposed framework can be used for quicker operational accident detection.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

"Hidden" hydrothermal technical potential & technoeconomics: Revealing permeability & fluids with more data

Historical hydrothermal estimates have largely relied on temperature or heat flow estimates ignoring the need for natural flowing fluids. More accurate hydrothermal estimates require some indication of permeability and fluids that naturally exist in the subsurface. This paper describes a novel approach that includes proxies of permeability and fluids in hydrothermal estimates by leveraging the relatively data-rich Great Basin. Specifically, nameplate capacities (megawatts) of operating geothermal plants, negative (0 megawatt) locations and 48 geophysical and geologic features are used to used in eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression to make hydrothermal capacity predictions. Additionally, this work inputs the XGBoost-based hydrothermal predictions into the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to quantify technical capacity, its uncertainty and techno-economics. Compared to historical hydrothermal estimates, these predictions adhere to the 37 operating geothermal plants and negative locations. We present a method for subsampling the negative sites to bring the labels into balance that uses the geologic domain knowledge to proportionally represent negatives. Overall, the distributions of the hydrothermal technical capacity and the site levelized cost of energy are respectively much tighter, lower and more accurate than the previous estimates for the Great Basin, as they include geological and geophysical surrogates for permeability and fluids. Percentile (50th and 90th, median and high estimate, respectively) models provide bookends for these metrics.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing bias in bagging and boosting regression models

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread, there is increasing attention on investigating bias in machine learning (ML) models. Previous research concentrated on classification problems, with little emphasis on regression models. This paper presents an easy-to-apply and effective methodology for mitigating bias in bagging and boosting regression models, that is also applicable to any model trained through minimizing a differentiable loss function. Our methodology measures bias rigorously and extends the ML model's loss function with a regularization term to penalize high correlations between model errors and protected attributes. We applied our approach to three popular tree-based ensemble models: a random forest model (RF), a gradient-boosted model (GBT), and an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). We implemented our methodology on a case study for predicting road-level traffic volume, where RF, GBT, and XGBoost models were shown to have high accuracy. Despite high accuracy, the ML models were shown to perform poorly on roads in minority-populated areas. Our bias mitigation approach reduced minority-related bias by over 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

In with the old, in with the new: machine learning for time to event biomedical research

The predictive modeling literature for biomedical applications is dominated by biostatistical methods for survival analysis, and more recently some out of the box machine learning approaches. In this article, we show a presentation of a machine learning method appropriate for time-to-event modeling in the area of prostate cancer long-term disease progression. Using XGBoost adapted to long-term disease progression, we developed a predictive model for 118 788 patients with localized prostate cancer at diagnosis from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Our model accounted for patient censoring. Harrell’s c-index for our model using only features available at the time of diagnosis was 0.757 95% confidence interval [0.756, 0.757]. Our results show that machine learning methods like XGBoost can be adapted to use accelerated failure time (AFT) with censoring to model long-term risk of disease progression. Furthermore, the long median survival justifies and requires censoring. Overall, we show that an existing machine learning approach can be used for AFT outcome modeling in prostate cancer, and more generally for other chronic diseases with long observation times.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗