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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
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Motor Configuration Selection for A New Technical Challenge to Develop A 5 MW Cryogenic Motor and Drive

Due to aviation’s appreciable and growing share of humanity’s impact on our environment and estimates that CO2emissions only account for 34% of aviation’s total effective radiative forcing [1], there is a need to reach beyond climate goals that focus only on CO2emissions, such as the US Aviation Climate Action Plan’s [3] goal to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.There is motivation to develop technology that pushes toward future large transport aircraft with net zero climate impact that are highly electrified (i.e., have higher power electrical propulsion system components). This paper describes a new, 6-year technical challenge to address this need by developing a 5 MW superconducting motor and cryogenic drive. Section 1 will detail the motivation for this work. Section 2 will describe the technical challenge and the selected specifications for the motor. Section 3 will present the results of a motor configuration trade study and the down selection of one configuration to develop a detailed design for. The technical challenge focuses on the design of a5 MW superconducting motor and cryogenic drive and demonstration of it at a 2+ MW scale to achieve TRL 3. Both fully superconducting (superconducting stator and rotor) and fully cryogenic (superconducting rotor and cryogenic stator) machine configurations will be explored. An emphasis will be placed on addressing the key tall poles for high power superconducting machines. Further details will be included in the full paper. The requirements and goals of the motor will be detailed. The rated speed (2,000 to 3,000 rpm) is defined to be appropriate for directly driving multi-MW fans or propellers. A range of rated speed is permitted because the motor is not designed for a specific aircraft and to provide design flexibility if AC losses in the stator winding are found to be a significant constraint (i.e., a lower speed can be selected to reduce electrical frequency). Relatively conservative requirements for efficiency (99%) and specific power (20 kW/kg) are defined, because TRL advancement and pushing toward flight readiness is emphasized over performance optimization. However, more aggressive efficiency and specific power goals are specified (99.9% and 40 kW/kg). The 3rd section will present the results of a motor configuration trade study. The study started with a qualitative assessment of sixteen motor configurations based on geometric, mechanical, thermal, and electromagnetic criteria. This assessment has been completed with three evaluators scoring all nine criteria. A configuration down select was made by prioritizing the sixteen configurations into four tiers based on each configuration’s total score and consideration of manufacturability, complexity, and support hardware (e.g., rotary vacuum seals, bearings). Configurations in priority A and B will be further evaluated through quantitative assessments, whereas those in priority C will only be further evaluated if time permits and priority D will not be further evaluated. Eight of the sixteen configurations were down selected for quantitative assessment, which will include analytical calculations and low-to moderate-fidelity finite element analysis to produce a preliminary Pareto front of efficiency versus specific power for each configuration. This assessment emphasizes the calculation of AC losses in the stator winding and an exploration of thermal management approaches to remove that heat and maintain cryogenic temperature. The final paper will include a description of each motor configuration that was considered. The quantitative assessments are underway, and an assessment of one configuration is complete for multiple stator conductor options. The remaining assessments are scheduled to be completed by late March so that the final down select to one configuration can be included in this paper.

Net Zero↗
DOE OSTI2024

Informing forest carbon inventories under the Paris Agreement using ground-based forest monitoring data

Human interactions with forests have shaped Earth's climate for millennia and will continue to do so as we target net-zero emission goals. Accurately characterizing these climate impacts requires making reliable forest carbon data available for forest monitoring and planning. Here, we develop a semi-automated process for submitting forest carbon measurements from the largest relevant scientific database to the International Panel on Climate Change's Emission Factor Database, which currently has sparse forest carbon data. Building this bridge from scientific research to international policy is an important step towards managing forests in a net-zero motivated future. Humans have been influencing Earth's climate via transformative impacts on forests for millennia, and forests are now recognized as critical to climate change mitigation under the Paris Agreement. The efficacy of climate change mitigation planning and reporting depends on quality data on forest carbon (C) stocks and changes. The Emission Factor Database (EFDB) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is intended to be a definitive source for such data, but needs comprehensive and well-documented data to be so. To facilitate submission of forest C estimates from scientific studies to EFDB, we develop and document a process for semi-automated data submission from the Global Forest C database (ForC v4.0), which is the largest compilation of ground-based forest C estimates. We then assess the data currently available through ForC and provide recommendations for improving forest data collection, analysis, and reporting. As of September 2024, ForC contained ~19,286 records potentially relevant to EFDB, 1068 of which had been submitted and posted to EFDB. These represented 19% of the total EFDB records for forest land. Records were unevenly distributed across variables and geographic regions. ForC records (37%) reviewed could not be submitted because the original publication lacked required information. In the future, ground-based forest C estimates should target gaps in the record, and studies should ensure that they report all information necessary for inclusion in EFDB. Given that climate change is rapidly impacting the world's forests, timely reporting of recent estimates will be critical to accurate forest C inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Equity implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of energy expenditures across income classes under economy-wide deep decarbonization policies

With companies, states, and countries targeting net-zero emissions around midcentury, there are questions about how these targets alter household welfare and finances, including distributional effects across income groups. This paper examines the distributional dimensions of technology transitions and net-zero policies with a focus on welfare impacts across household incomes. The analysis uses a model intercomparison with a range of energy-economy models using harmonized policy scenarios reaching economy-wide, net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States in 2050. Here we employ a novel linking approach that connects output from detailed energy system models with survey microdata on energy expenditures across income classes to provide distributional analysis of net-zero policies. Although there are differences in model structure and input assumptions, we find broad agreement in qualitative trends in policy incidence and energy burdens across income groups. Models generally agree that direct energy expenditures for many households will likely decline over time with reference and net-zero policies. However, there is variation in the extent of changes relative to current levels, energy burdens relative to reference levels, and electricity expenditures. Policy design, primarily how climate policy revenues are used, has first-order impacts on distributional outcomes. Net-zero policy costs, in both absolute and relative terms, are unevenly distributed across households, and relative increases in energy expenditures are higher for lowest-income households. However, we also find that recycled revenues from climate policies have countervailing effects when rebated on a per-capita basis, offsetting higher energy burdens and potentially even leading to net progressive outcomes. Model results also show carbon Laffer curves, where revenues from net-zero policies increase but then decline with higher stringencies, which can diminish the progressive effects of climate policies. We also illustrate how using annual income deciles for distributional analysis instead of expenditure deciles can overstate the progressivity of emissions policies by overweighting revenue impacts on the lowest-income deciles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net-zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here, we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation, with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions from the CMIP DECK 1pctCO2 experiment, where emissions rates tend to increase during the experiment, such that at the time of CO2 doubling in year 70, emissions are much greater than present-day values. A base experiment, “esm-flat10”, has constant emissions of CO2 of 10 GtC per year (near-present-day values), and initial results show that the TCRE estimated in this experiment is about 0.1 K less than that obtained using 1pctCO2. A subset of ESMs exhibit land carbon sinks that saturate during this experiment. A branch experiment, esm-flat10-zec, illustrates that both positive and negative ZEC effects are less pronounced under esm-flat10 than under 1pctCO2 – the magnitude of ZEC50 in ESMs is, on average, reduced by 30 % compared with 1pctCO2 branch experiments. A final experiment, esm-flat10-cdr, assesses climate reversibility under negative emissions, where we find that peak warming may occur before or after net zero and that the asymmetry in temperature at a given level of cumulative emissions between the positive and negative emissions phases is well described by ZEC in most models. Further, we find that existing probabilistic simple climate model (SCM) ensembles tend to overestimate temperature reversibility compared with ESMs, highlighting the need for additional constraints. We propose a set of climate diagnostic indicators to quantify various aspects of climate reversibility. These experiments were suggested as potential candidates in CMIP7 and have since been adopted as “fast track” simulations.

Sanderson, Benjamin M↗
DOE OSTI2024

The path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's long-term pathway for GHG emission reduction

Saudi Arabia, as part of its Saudi Green Initiative, has announced its goal to achieve net zero green-house gas emissions by 2060. This ambitious target underscores the nation's dedication to address-ing climate change. However, there is a significant gap in comprehensive analysis regarding the long-term effects of Saudi Arabia's climate policies and their collective contribution towards the net-zero objective. This study endeavors to bridge this gap through a detailed examination using the GCAM-KSA, a specialized version of the Global Change Analysis Model tailored for Saudi Arabia, employing a multi-sectoral methodology that integrates economic, energy, and land use systems within a coherent framework to assess the impact of climate policies on GHG emissions. Our anal-ysis reveals that reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2060 is a complex challenge requiring con-certed efforts across all sectors of the economy. While transitioning to low-carbon electricity and improving energy efficiency offer considerable emission reductions, fully decarbonizing the indus-trial and transportation sectors poses a significant hurdle. Our findings suggest that Saudi Arabia must triple its emission reduction commitments in its next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) update to align with its 2060 net-zero goal. Early action and increased ambition could avoid the chances of getting locked into the high emission assets and give enough time to transform the energy system. Furthermore, the adoption and integration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) tech-nologies are identified as crucial for offsetting residual emissions, especially in sectors that might continue to rely on fossil fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Agriculture, bioenergy, and water implications of constrained cereal trade and climate change impacts

International trade increases connections and dependencies between countries, weaving a network of global supply chains. Agricultural commodity trade has implications for crop producers, consumers, crop prices, water and land uses, and other human systems. Interconnections among these systems are not always easy to observe when external impacts penetrate across multiple sectors. To better understand the interactions of non-linear and globally coupled agricultural-bioenergy-water systems under the broader economy, we introduce systematic perturbations in two dimensions, one human (restrictions on agricultural trade) and the other physical (climate impacts on crop yields). We explore these independently and in combination to distinguish the consequences of individual perturbation and interactive effects in long-term projections. We show that most regions experience larger changes in cereal consumption due to cereal import dependency constraints than due to the impacts of climate change on agricultural yields. In the scenario where all regions ensure an import dependency ratio of zero, the global trade of cereals decreases ~50% in 2050 compared to the baseline, with smaller decreases in cereal production and consumption (4%). The changes in trade also impact water and bioenergy: global irrigation water consumption increases 3% and corn ethanol production decreases 7% in 2050. Climate change results in rising domestic prices and declining consumption of cereal crops in general, while the import dependency constraint exacerbates the situation in regions which import more cereals in the baseline. The individual and interactive effects of trade perturbations and climate change vary greatly across regions, which are also affected by the regional ability to increase agricultural production through intensification or extensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy Efficiency as a Foundational Technology Pillar for Industrial Decarbonization

The U.S. government aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to reduce the severe impacts of climate change. The U.S. industrial sector will become a focal point for decarbonization since it accounts for 33% of the nation’s primary energy use and 30% of its energy-related CO2 emissions. Industrial emissions are also expected to increase by 15% through 2050, making the industrial sector a logical target for decarbonization efforts. Energy efficiency technology pathways provide low-cost, foundational routes to decarbonization that can be implemented immediately. Energy efficiency technology pathways, such as strategic energy management, system efficiency, smart manufacturing, material efficiency, and combined heat and power, are well established and would immediately reduce energy use and emissions. However, their role in the aggressive net-zero decarbonization pathway for the industrial sector is still unclear. This study aims to address energy efficiency pathways for decarbonization, and reviews studies related to these technologies for industrial decarbonization through 2050. This study identifies different strategies for the industrial sector in general and that are specific to six energy-intensive industries: iron and steel; chemical; food and beverage; petroleum refining; pulp and paper; and cement. Finally, a path toward the successful implementation of energy efficiency technologies is outlined.

Strategic energy management↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-term decarbonization impacts on residential energy security across income groups and US states

Abstract The impact of a transition to a net-zero economy on the residential energy sector across diverse income groups in the US remains uncertain. Here, we employ an integrated human-Earth system model, incorporating an expanded set of ten income groups in the residential energy sector, to examine the distributional impacts of long-term decarbonization scenarios on residential energy security at the state level through 2050. We use multiple metrics of energy security, including energy burden, energy satiation gap, and the distribution of energy service across income groups. Our findings show that the net-zero decarbonization scenarios affect residential energy security differently across income groups, with low-to-mid-income groups experiencing larger negative impacts on the dimensions studied here. Comparatively, climate change impact on residential energy security is minor through 2050 based on our model outcomes. Specifically, the net-zero decarbonization scenarios lead to increased energy burden across all income groups and states in 2050, where the lowest (highest) income group in each state shows an average of 0.6 (0.2) percentage point increase in energy burden, relative to the business-as-usual in 2050. The distribution of energy service consumption across income groups is also slightly more skewed under these scenarios. As incomes grow across all deciles in the future, residential energy security generally improves through 2050. Targeted interventions could mitigate the disproportionate impacts that some groups could incur under a transition to a net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2024

Additional Aviation Sustainability Strategies

Emissions from the aviation sector are expected to grow significantly in the next few decades due to growing demand for aviation. The U.S. fleet size has increased significantly in the past 20 years, growing from 2,132 aircraft to 5,485 aircraft. Similarly from 1990 to 2019, aviation emissions more than doubled, growing faster than any other transportation mode. These emissions include carbon dioxide (CO2), as well as non-CO2 sources including nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), water (H2O), and particulate matter (soot). However, this report focuses specifically on CO2 emissions because the impacts from CO2 are well-understood and long-lived. There are also many climate goals tied to CO2 emissions, including the US Aviation Climate Action Plan which is pushing for net-zero in 2050. CO2 is a greenhouse, or heat-trapping, gas that comes from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels, from wildfires, and natural processes like volcanoes. Greenhouse gases absorb heat radiating from the Earth’s surface and release it in all directions, including back toward Earth’s surface. By adding more CO2 to the atmosphere, humans amplify the natural greenhouse effect, causing global temperature to rise. Since the onset of industrial times in 1750, human activities have raised atmospheric CO2 by 50%. Considering this challenge, the United States has set a climate goal to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions in the U.S. aviation sector by 2050 to reduce the environmental impact of aviation. Net-zero emissions refers to the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CO2, methane or SO2, that are removed from the atmosphere being equal to those emitted by human activity. This contrasts with carbon-neutrality, which refers to no net release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, especially through offsetting emissions, that could be accomplished through a series of actions. As of 2022, the goal of net-zero has been adopted by much of the aviation industry including multiple airlines and countries. To reach net-zero by 2050, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are identified as the technology that could provide the greatest impact within this timeframe. However, certain challenges may limit the production and/or adoption of SAFs in the marketplace, such as competition for feedstocks, production capacity, and high cost. In this case, SAFs would be insufficient to meet the net-zero CO2 emission goals. Therefore, in addition to SAFs, other strategies will be needed to close the gap on emissions produced as a result of SAF shortfalls or to enhance the impact of SAFs on reducing emissions. NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) aims to examine these additional pathways to explore how its research may best contribute to the realization of net-zero emissions by 2050. Specifically, this effort considers strategies that can reduce emissions in the aviation sector in combination with the use of SAFs and carbon offsets while still meeting projected passenger demand. The strategies considered are not only feasible but also could be operationally scalable by 2050. The goal of this report is to investigate additional strategies such as alternative flight and ground operations, providing insight into the CO2 emission reduction potential and feasibility of strategy implementation by 2050.

Carbon Emissions↗
DOE OSTI2022

Designing for Zero Energy and Zero Carbon on a Multi-Building Scale Using URBANopt: Preprint

Groundbreaking efforts are necessary to mitigate contributors increasing impacts of climate change. In parallel to inventing pioneering clean energy technologies it is even more fundamental to rethink designing energy systems within a singular facility and collectively to function as a district. Facilities should not be continuously passive by just consuming; there is a need to shift to perform more dynamically. Designing for zero energy and zero carbon on a multi-building scale can uncover opportunities for building energy efficiency, decarbonization, demand flexibility, and resiliency that are not accessible at an individual building scale. This approach can be challenging without innovative tools to evaluate the multitude of possibilities. As an investigated result, we highlight the use of a campus-scale energy modeling platform - URBANopt™ - for the expansion of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) South Table Mountain campus in Golden, Colorado. Programmatic growth included the design of three new all-electric, zero-energy, and zero-carbon, mixed used buildings (a combination of research laboratories and office space). This investigation is critical to NREL reaching net-zero emissions for its operational footprint, which will occur in phases over the next decade. Leveraging URBANopt's capabilities, we evaluate 1) high-performance building energy efficiency and decarbonization measures, 2) 4th generation district heating and cooling (4th GDHC) systems, 3) optimized onsite generation and energy storage assets that meet zero-energy and zero-carbon targets at minimum life-cycle costs, and 4) cost-optimal distributed energy technology mixes, dispatch strategies, and associated capacities that increase resiliency to grid outages. This work demonstrates the use and capabilities of URBANopt through a real-world case study on a multi-building scale.

community energy model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nature-based solutions in mountain catchments reduce impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought streamflow

Quantifying how well Nature-based Solutions can offset anthropogenic climate change impacts is important for adaptation planning, but has rarely been done. Here we show that a widely-applied Nature-based Solution in South Africa – invasive alien tree clearing – reduces the impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought streamflow. Using a multi-model joint-attribution of climate and landscape-vegetation states during the 2015–2017 Cape Town “Day Zero” drought, we find that anthropogenic climate change reduced streamflow by 12–29% relative to a counterfactual world with anthropogenic emissions removed. This impact on streamflow was larger than corresponding reductions in rainfall (7–15%) and reference evapotranspiration (1.7–2%). Clearing invasive alien trees could have ameliorated streamflow reductions by 3–16% points for moderate invasions levels. Preventing further invasive alien tree spread avoided potential additional reductions of 10–27% points. Total clearing could not have offset the anthropogenic climate change impact completely. Invasive alien tree clearing is an important form of catchment restoration for managing changing hydroclimatic risk, but will need to be combined with other adaptation options as climate change accelerates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for Bistline, et al. (2025) "Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts"

These files contain input assumptions, results, and figures associated with the Bistline, et al. (2025) article "Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts" in Energy and Climate Change as part of the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study. Please refer to the original paper for details.

climate policy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Impact on CO2 Capture Efficiency and Levelized Cost of Liquid solvent-based DAC (Direct Air Capture) System

The transition towards net-zero emission poses economic, technical, and political challenges for the commercial-scale deployment of CO2 removal technologies by 2050. The opportunities for large-scale deployment will largely depend on the distinctive conditions found in the different locations of the world such as energy cost, carbon intensity of energy source, construction, transportation, and weather conditions. In this work, we focus on one of the promising negative emission technology, DAC (Direct Air Capture), and its response to different weather conditions. This work presents two potential operation scenarios: (i) natural gas standalone, (ii) grid electricity connected DAC plant. For the first time, we investigated the influence of temperature and RH (relative humidity) of the air on liquid-based DAC system and its response to carbon capture efficiency and levelized cost of carbon capture with operational sensitivity analysis. It is observed that the overall energy demand decreases from 11.1 to 8.3 GJ/ton-CO2 as the CO2 capture rate increases from 40 to 85%. We observed that a CO2 capture rate of 75% is only possible above 17°C even at 90% RH and this drops tremendously at lower temperatures. It is also observed that water evaporation in the air contactor is highest at dry and low RH as expected. The sensitivity analysis showed that weather conditions are insensitive to CO2 capture efficiency for the liquid-solvent based DAC plant for both scenarios. In addition, higher CO2 capture efficiency is achievable from lower upstream methane emissions and carbon intensity of grid electricity (for grid-connected scenario). Lastly, the levelized cost of natural gas standalone scenario varies from 239.7 to 408.8 $/t-CO2 is sensitive to temperature conditions more than relative humidity and compared to electricity grid-connected scenario, from 265.3 to 440.1 $/t-CO2.

An, Keju↗
DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Colorado (Pueblo) Regional DAC Hub TA-1: Feasibility (Phase 0a) (Final Technical Report)

This project supports the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) mission to reduce the environmental and climate impacts of fossil fuels and industrial processes, contributing to the goal of achieving net-zero emissions across the U.S. economy. The primary objective is to conduct a feasibility study for a Regional Direct Air Capture (DAC) Hub in the Southern Colorado region, northeast of Pueblo. The geographic construct of this hub is based on the Denver-Julesburg Basin – a geological area where a significant number of geological storage studies have been conducted (See Figure 1). The project will leverage the work of Project Eos, a CarbonSAFE Phase III study led by the Colorado School of Mines and CarbonAmerica. The DAC Hub aims to capture, store, and/or utilize at least 1,000,000 tonnes of CO 2 from the atmosphere annually. To achieve this, the project team is designing a system with an initial capacity of 100,000 tonnes per year. This feasibility-stage project will formulate the Regional DAC Hub concept and team to conduct the relevant analysis, networking and community stakeholder engagement necessary to advance the project to the design stage.

42 ENGINEERING↗