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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing Earth Observations of Soil Freeze/Thaw Data and Atmospheric Concentrations to Estimate Cold Season Methane Emissions in the Northern High Latitudes

The northern wetland methane emission estimates have large uncertainties. Inversion models are a qualified method to estimate the methane fluxes and emissions in northern latitudes but when atmospheric observations are sparse, the models are only as good as their a priori estimates. Thus, improving a priori estimates is a competent way to reduce uncertainties and enhance emission estimates in the sparsely sampled regions. Here, we use a novel way to integrate remote sensing soil freeze/thaw (F/T) status from SMOS satellite to better capture the seasonality of methane emissions in the northern high latitude. The SMOS F/T data provide daily information of soil freezing state in the northern latitudes, and in this study, the data is used to define the cold season in the high latitudes and, thus, improve our knowledge of the seasonal cycle of biospheric methane fluxes. The SMOS F/T data is implemented to LPX-Bern DYPTOP model estimates and the modified fluxes are used as a biospheric a priori in the inversion model CarbonTracker Europe-CH 4 . The implementation of the SMOS F/T soil state is shown to be beneficial in improving the inversion model’s cold season biospheric flux estimates. Our results show that cold season biospheric CH4 emissions in northern high latitudes are approximately 0.60 Tg lower than previously estimated, which corresponds to 17% reduction in the cold season biospheric emissions. This reduction is partly compensated by increased anthropogenic emissions in the same area (0.23 Tg), and the results also indicates that the anthropogenic emissions could have even larger contribution in cold season than estimated here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adversarial sampling of unknown and high-dimensional conditional distributions

Many engineering problems require the prediction of realization-to-realization variability or a refined description of modeled quantities. In that case, it is necessary to sample elements from unknown high-dimensional spaces with possibly millions of degrees of freedom. While there exist methods able to sample elements from probability density functions (PDF) with known shapes, several approximations need to be made when the distribution is unknown. In this paper the sampling method, as well as the inference of the underlying distribution, are both handled with a data-driven method known as generative adversarial networks (GAN), which trains two competing neural networks to produce a network that can effectively generate samples from the training set distribution. In practice, it is often necessary to draw samples from conditional distributions. When the conditional variables are continuous, only one (if any) data point corresponding to a particular value of a conditioning variable may be available, which is not sufficient to estimate the conditional distribution. This work handles this problem using an a priori estimation of the conditional moments of a PDF. Herein, two approaches, stochastic estimation, and an external neural network are compared for computing these moments; however, any preferred method can be used. The algorithm is demonstrated in the case of the deconvolution of a filtered turbulent flow field. It is shown that all the versions of the proposed algorithm effectively sample the target conditional distribution with minimal impact on the quality of the samples compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, the procedure can be used as a metric for the diversity of samples generated by a conditional GAN (cGAN) conditioned with continuous variables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Augmented Predictive and Generative Model for Rupture Life in Ferritic and Austenitic Steels

The Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) offers an efficient and fast scheme to estimate the creep rupture life of alloy materials for high temperature applications. However, owing to poor generalizability and dependence on the constant C, which is typically not known a-priori, estimations using the Larson-Miller parameter often result in suboptimal performance for a wide range of materials. At best it is useful in comparing alloys of similar composition. In this work, three machine learning (ML) schemes were developed for rupture life prediction for 9-12% Cr ferritic-martensitic steels and austenitic stainless steels, i.e., a hierarchical model to parameterize LMP using the LMP constant C to compute rupture life, a hierarchical model to parameterize both C and LMP to compute rupture life, and a direct prediction of rupture life. Specifically, we show that the third scheme, using a gradient boosting algorithm, can be used to train ML models for very accurate prediction of rupture life in a variety of alloys (Pear-son Correlation Coefficient > 0.9 for 9-12% Cr and > 0.8 for austenitic stainless steels). In addition, the Shapley value was used to quantify feature importance, making the model interpretable by identifying the effect of various features on the model performance. Furthermore, a variational autoencoder-based generative model was built by conditioning on the experimental dataset to sample hypothetical synthetic candidate alloys from the learnt joint distribution not existing in both 9-12 % Cr ferritic-martensitic steel and austenitic stainless steel datasets. Finally, based on the predictive and generative model, a reinforcement learning strategy has been proposed to guide experimentalists into designing better heat resistant alloys.

Mamun, Md Osman G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decentralized Data-Driven Estimation of Generator Rotor Speed and Inertia Constant Based on Adaptive Unscented Kalman Filter

This paper proposes an online decentralized and data-driven method for synchronous generator rotor speed and inertia estimation. First, an analytical relationship between the generator terminal voltage/current phasors and its internal rotor speed is derived using the Thevenin equivalent. The parameters of the latter are obtained via a recursive estimator, which allows us to estimate the generator's internal rotor speed from voltage/current phasors without the need for any generator information. Second, we reformulate the equivalent swing equation into the Kalman filter form, which enables us to use a priori-estimated internal rotor speed along with measured real and reactive power injections to obtain an estimate of the inertia for each online synchronous generator. This is achieved through an adaptive unscented Kalman filter. We demonstrate that the use of terminal bus frequency to approximate the rotor speed for inertia estimation by existing methods leads to large estimation biases/errors. Numerical simulations carried out on the IEEE 39-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems reveal that our proposed method is consistently more accurate than existing methods. Moreover, our proposed method is insensitive to both the type and location of system disturbances, and it is robust to different levels of measurement noise.

bus frequency↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient co-solution of time step size and independent state in simulations of fluid-driven fracture propagation with embedded meshes

Here we present an efficient time-continuation scheme for fluid-driven fracture propagation problems in the extended finite element method framework. The approach applies a monolithic solution strategy to a fully coupled and implicit approximation of hydro-mechanical systems in conjunction with simultaneous linear elastic propagation of multiple fractures. At the end of each time step, the process ensures that the weakest fracture tip is in an equilibrium propagation regime. Furthermore, the solution process provides an initialization procedure for the newly created fracture spaces and an a priori estimate of the stress intensity factor growth rate, improving simulation robustness, and efficiency. The solution process is validated using the Kristianovich-Geertsma-de Klerk analytical solution under the toughness- and viscosity-dominated regimes. It is also extended to and demonstrated on problems with multiple fractures undergoing simultaneous propagation with stress shadow interactions. Numerical examples demonstrate that the solution process can reduce the required computational cost by one order of magnitude compared to other existing methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of feed composition on the production of off-gases during vitrification of simulated low-activity nuclear waste

During the vitrification of nuclear waste, hazardous and radioactive emissions are generated from the feed-to-glass conversion reactions, in addition to discharges from forced air bubbling and air inleakage. Although the major gaseous emissions are water vapor, nitrogen, and carbon dioxide, various monitored environmental pollutants are also released, such as nitrogen oxides or sulfur dioxide. In addition, reactions between organics and nitrates in the feed may also form products of incomplete combustion such as carbon monoxide and acetonitrile. Although off-gas emissions are commonly measured during both laboratory- and pilot-scale melter testing, no predictive tool is currently available to a priori estimate the composition of gaseous emissions during nuclear waste vitrification. This work forms a basis for the development of such predictive tool by measuring gas evolution from a broad range of simulated low-activity waste melter feeds using evolved gas analysis data and developing correlations between the feed and off-gas compositions. Using reaction stoichiometry and regression analysis, we demonstrate that next to the content of nitrogen and organic carbon in the feed, the gaseous emissions are affected by the feed reduction-oxidation conditions – the more the feed is reduced, the less nitrogen monoxide, and more carbon monoxide and acetonitrile evolves. In conclusion, the results presented in this work provide a first step towards reducing the amount of expensive physical melter testing and the regression analysis provides a simple tool for rapid optimization of feed composition with respect to off-gas composition.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Energy and Meteorological Impacts on Thanksgiving CO2 in Salt Lake City

Abstract Long-term, high-frequency atmospheric CO2 measurements at multiple sites in the Salt Lake City (SLC), Utah, reveal that annual and monthly CO2 variability aligns with a priori estimates of emissions from anthropogenic and biological sources. In this study, we investigate whether short-term fluctuations in anthropogenic emissions, as captured in the Vulcan3 dataset for the United States, can be detected in atmospheric CO2 observations. Specifically, we focus on Thanksgiving holidays, when traffic and energy usage patterns differ from the rest of November. Onroad CO2 emissions exhibit a double peak during weekday morning and evening rush hours but remain relatively low on weekends and Thanksgiving. Interestingly, CO2 mole fractions during Thanksgiving were higher than the rest of November at all SLC monitoring sites, particularly from 2008 to 2013. This increase is partially attributed to elevated energy-related emissions — especially residential sources — and meteorological factors such as weak wind speeds, cold temperature, and a low planetary boundary layer height (PBLH).

 While CO₂ emissions and mole fraction patterns align over time, notable spatial differences exist. For instance, the near-highway site in Murray shows the highest CO₂ mole fractions despite low local emissions, suggesting pollution transport via highways and wind advection. Random Forest model-based SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis reveals that onroad emissions dominate CO2 contributions on weekdays and weekends, while energy-related emissions play a larger role during Thanksgiving, alongside meteorological drivers such as wind speed and PBLH. Across six urban cities, CO2 emissions display a consistent pattern: residential and commercial (onroad) emissions peak during Thanksgiving (weekday) with substantial (minimal) year-to-year variability. These findings highlight that urban CO₂ variability is driven by the combined influence of emissions and meteorology, underscoring the need for integrated mitigation strategies. Additionally, multi-site measurements are essential for accurate source attribution and the development of effective policy interventions. 

Ryoo, Ju-Mee (ORCID:0000000234256296)↗
DOE OSTI2023

New approaches to an old problem: addressing spatial gaps in the World Stress Map

Abstract A well-recognized characteristic of the World Stress Map (WSM) database is the continued presence of large spatial gaps in the distribution of the data records despite the more than 40-year development history of the database. The current release has more than 30 000 high-quality (A–C) data records (often referred to as ‘stress indicators’), but while some continental areas (such as Australia) have seen a significant increase in spatial converge with the latest release, other continental regions (Africa, central Asia, most of South America) remain markedly sparse. In this contribution we (1) review the current state of the spatial distribution of stress indicators in the continental regions (above sea-level); (2) quantify the clustering of the stress indicators in the latest WSM release using the Hopkins statistic as a way to explore the current spatial distribution of the indicators and assess future WSM releases; and (3) present three approaches (joint inversion, seismic anisotropy and InSAR) that provide a way to fill in the gaps (both in the S Hmax orientation and principal stress magnitudes) in regions that lack active seismicity and where borehole drilling is cost prohibitive. These three approaches have the potential to guide procedures for improving a priori estimates of the ambient stress field in the Earth's crust and reduce the uncertainty in predicting both the magnitude and orientation of the principal tectonic stresses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric Drivers of Wind Turbine Blade Leading Edge Erosion: Review and Recommendations for Future Research

Leading edge erosion (LEE) of wind turbine blades causes decreased aerodynamic performance leading to lower power production and revenue and increased operations and maintenance costs. LEE is caused primarily by materials stresses when hydrometeors (rain and hail) impact on rotating blades. The kinetic energy transferred by these impacts is a function of the precipitation intensity, droplet size distributions (DSD), hydrometeor phase and the wind turbine rotational speed which in turn depends on the wind speed at hub-height. Hence, there is a need to better understand the hydrometeor properties and the joint probability distributions of precipitation and wind speeds at prospective and operating wind farms in order to quantify the potential for LEE and the financial efficacy of LEE mitigation measures. However, there are relatively few observational datasets of hydrometeor DSD available for such locations. Here, we analyze six observational datasets from spatially dispersed locations and compare them with existing literature and assumed DSD used in laboratory experiments of material fatigue. We show that the so-called Best DSD being recommended for use in whirling arm experiments does not represent the observational data. Neither does the Marshall Palmer approximation. We also use these data to derive and compare joint probability distributions of drivers of LEE; precipitation intensity (and phase) and wind speed. We further review and summarize observational metrologies for hydrometeor DSD, provide information regarding measurement uncertainty in the parameters of critical importance to kinetic energy transfer and closure of data sets from different instruments. A series of recommendations are made about research needed to evolve towards the required fidelity for a priori estimates of LEE potential.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Error Estimates for the Optimal Control of a Parabolic Fractional PDE

In this work, we consider the integral definition of the fractional Laplacian and analyze a linear-quadratic optimal control problem for the so-called fractional heat equation; control constraints are also considered. We derive existence and uniqueness results, first order optimality conditions, and regularity estimates for the optimal variables. To discretize the state equation we propose a fully discrete scheme that relies on an implicit finite difference discretization in time combined with a piecewise linear finite element discretization in space. We derive stability results and a novel $L^2(0,T;L^2(\Omega))$ a priori error estimate. On the basis of the aforementioned solution technique, we propose a fully discrete scheme for our optimal control problem that discretizes the control variable with piecewise constant functions, and we derive a priori error estimates for it. We illustrate the theory with one- and two-dimensional numerical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Uncertainty in Simulated ENSO Statistics

Abstract Large ensembles of model simulations are frequently used to reduce the impact of internal variability when evaluating climate models and assessing climate change induced trends. However, the optimal number of ensemble members required to distinguish model biases and climate change signals from internal variability varies across models and metrics. Here we analyze the mean, variance and skewness of precipitation and sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific region often used to describe the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), obtained from large ensembles of Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate simulations. Leveraging established statistical theory, we develop and assess equations to estimate, a priori, the ensemble size or simulation length required to limit sampling‐based uncertainties in ENSO statistics to within a desired tolerance. Our results confirm that the uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series length and/or ensemble size. Moreover, we demonstrate that uncertainties of these statistics are generally comparable when computed using either pre‐industrial control or historical runs. This suggests that pre‐industrial runs can sometimes be used to estimate the expected uncertainty of statistics computed from an existing historical member or ensemble, and the number of simulation years (run duration and/or ensemble size) required to adequately characterize the statistic. This advance allows us to use existing simulations (e.g., control runs that are performed during model development) to design ensembles that can sufficiently limit diagnostic uncertainties arising from simulated internal variability. These results may well be applicable to variables and regions beyond ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-preserving enriched Galerkin method for a fully-coupled thermo-poroelasticity model

This paper proposes a new numerical method for a fully-coupled, quasi-static thermo-poroelasticity model in a unified enriched Galerkin (EG) method framework. In our method, the mechanics sub-problem is solved using a locking-free EG method, and the flow and heat sub-problems are solved using a locally-conservative EG method. The proposed method offers mass and energy conservation properties with much lower costs than other methods with the same properties, including discontinuous Galerkin methods and mixed finite element methods. The well-posedness and optimal a priori error estimates are carefully derived. Here, several numerical tests confirm the theoretical optimal convergence rates and the mass and energy conservation properties of the new method.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

McCormick envelopes in mixed-integer PDE-constrained optimization

McCormick envelopes are a standard tool for deriving convex relaxations of optimization problems that involve polynomial terms. Such McCormick relaxations provide lower bounds, for example, in branch-and-bound procedures for mixed-integer nonlinear programs but have not gained much attention in PDE-constrained optimization so far. This lack of attention may be due to the distributed nature of such problems, which on the one hand leads to infinitely many linear constraints (generally state constraints that may be difficult to handle) in addition to the state equation for a pointwise formulation of the McCormick envelopes and renders bound-tightening procedures that successively improve the resulting convex relaxations computationally intractable. We analyze McCormick envelopes for a model problem class that is governed by a semilinear PDE involving a bilinearity and integrality constraints. We approximate the nonlinearity and in turn the McCormick envelopes by averaging the involved terms over the cells of a partition of the computational domain on which the PDE is defined. This yields convex relaxations that underestimate the original problem up to an a priori error estimate that depends on the mesh size of the discretization. These approximate McCormick relaxations can be improved by means of an optimization-based bound-tightening procedure. We show that their minimizers converge to minimizers to a limit problem with a pointwise formulation of the McCormick envelopes when driving the mesh size to zero. We provide a computational example, for which we certify all of our imposed assumptions. The results point to both the potential of the methodology and the gaps in the research that need to be closed. Our methodology provides a framework first for obtaining pointwise underestimators for nonconvexities and second for approximating them with finitely many linear inequalities in an infinite-dimensional setting.

Approximations and Expansions↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-periodic steady-state solution of fluid-structure interaction and cardiac flow problems through multigrid-reduction-in-time

In this study, a time-periodic MGRIT algorithm is proposed as a means to reduce the time-to-solution of numerical algorithms by exploiting the time periodicity inherent to many applications in science and engineering. The time-periodic MGRIT algorithm is applied to a variety of linear and nonlinear single- and multiphysics problems that are periodic-in-time. It is demonstrated that the proposed parallel-in-time algorithm can obtain the same time-periodic steady-state solution as sequential time-stepping. It is shown that the required number of MGRIT iterations can be estimated a priori and that the new MGRIT variant can significantly and consistently reduce the time-to-solution compared to sequential time-stepping, irrespective of the number of dimensions, linear or nonlinear PDE models, single-physics or coupled problems and the employed computing resources. The numerical experiments demonstrate that the time-periodic MGRIT algorithm enables a greater level of parallelism yielding faster turnaround, and thus, facilitating more complex and more realistic problems to be solved.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Laser diagnostics to characterize the in-flame growth of platinum nanoparticles manufactured by the reactive spray deposition technology

Reactive Spray Deposition Technology (RSDT) is an atmospheric pressure, flame-based advanced manufacturing method used to fabricate Membrane Electrode Assemblies (MEAs) for proton exchange fuel cells and water electrolyzers. RSDT combines the flame synthesis of catalyst nanoparticles and their deposition onto the membrane in one step. The properties of the synthesized nanoparticles, such as their Size Distribution Function (SDF), determine the manufactured electrodes’ performance, which can be evaluated when the deposition is complete via ex-situ characterization of the products. Efforts to improve RSDT for manufacturing state-of-the-art MEAs can be significantly enhanced with integrated laser diagnostics that enable in situ measurement of the synthesized catalyst nanoparticles. This paper reports the implementation of laser diagnostics in an RSDT facility and evaluates their potential to assist the manufacturing process. Laser Light Scattering (LS) and Laser-Induced Incandescence (LII) measurements are performed in the oxygen-rich zone of the flame at various distances from the flame fuel jet nozzle downstream of its luminous region. The measurements quantitatively track the evolution in size and volume fraction of platinum-based nanoparticles in two flames that yield different catalytic properties in the manufactured electrodes. The profiles of the measured nanoparticles’ volume fraction along the flame axis can be estimated a priori so that the average nanoparticle sizes can be measured in quasi-real time via LS. Nanoparticles experience an extremely slow growth rate while being convected at distances from 150 nm to 300 nm from the fuel nozzle. Complementary characterizations of the synthesized nanoparticles are performed ex-situ via High-Angle Annular Darkfield Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (HAADF-STEM) image analyses of samples collected on grids at a fixed distance from the fuel jet nozzle. Comparing the results from laser and microscopy techniques not only cross-validates the findings but also provides the parameters to infer the bimodal SDF in-situ and yields evidence that the coagulation efficiency of the synthesized nanoparticles has extremely low values in the investigated zone of the flames.

Rayleigh Light Scattering (LS)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights From Dayflow: A Historical Streamflow Reanalysis Dataset for the Conterminous United States

Abstract Reconstructed historical streamflow time series can supplement limited streamflow gauge observations. However, there are common challenges of typical modeling approaches: process‐based hydrologic models can be data/computation‐intensive, and statistics‐based models can be region/stream‐specific. Here we present a nationally scalable modeling framework integrating the simulated runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model leveraging high‐performance computing. We demonstrate an efficient method of assimilating streamflow at US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow monitoring sites using a simple hierarchical approach in the VIC‐RAPID framework. The result is a reconstructed 36‐year (1980–2015) daily and monthly streamflow dataset (Dayflow) at ∼2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches in the conterminous US (CONUS). We perform a comprehensive evaluation at 7,526 USGS sites and characterize their error statistics. The results demonstrate that 49% of the USGS sites demonstrate Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) > 0.5 and 58% of the sites show percentage bias within ±20% for the daily naturalized streamflow. Streamflow data assimilation across CONUS shows an overall improvement over naturalized streamflow, notably in the western semiarid‐to‐arid regions. Comparison to other national and global streamflow reanalysis datasets such as the National Water Model and Global Reach‐scale A priori Discharge Estimates for SWOT demonstrates improved KGE, reduced bias, and directions for Dayflow improvements. Investigations of error statistics with key hydrologic, hydroclimatic, and geomorphologic basin characteristics reveal region‐specific patterns which may help improve future framework applications. Overall, Dayflow may enable a better understanding of hydrologic conditions in a changing environment, especially in locations currently not represented by streamflow monitoring networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗