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NE-COST plug-in: Expanding ACCERT's Capabilities for Life-Cycle Cost Modeling

The Algorithm for the Capital Cost Estimation of Reactor Technologies (ACCERT) is a structured methodology and software tool designed to simplify and standardize cost estimation for nuclear reactor technologies [1]. By utilizing a relational database structure and modular cost estimation algorithms, ACCERT delivers a robust, flexible, and scalable framework for evaluating costs across various reactor types and configurations [2]. The recent integration of the NE-COST plugin further expands ACCERT’s scope by introducing detailed life-cycle cost modeling and probabilistic analysis of uncertainties. This addition enables users to evaluate costs across front-end processes such as uranium enrichment and fabrication, as well as back-end activities including waste disposal and geologic storage. Through Monte Carlo statistical cost simulations, the plugin provides probabilistic insights into cost ranges, offering critical decision-making support for stakeholders including reactor developers, policymakers, and researchers.

Zhou, Jia

Connecting Black Hole States and Accertion Flow Geometry

Under this program, INTEGRAL made four observations of the Galactic black hole X-ray binary GRO 51655-40 in outburst. Our team made a number of supporting observations simultaneously in the radio, optical, and X-ray bands. The data have been processed by INTEGRAL and efforts to make a preliminary reduction and analysis of the data are underway. As the data have only been in house for a month at the time of writing, there are no significant results to report at this time, apart from the fact that the source appears to have been detected clearly even up to an energy of 200 keV.

Teegarden, Bonnard

The stability of thick, self-gravitating disks in protostellar systems

Using numerical hydrodynamics techniques, we perform a nonlinear stability analysis of accretion disk systems that contain thick, self-gravitating disks. The systems are initially represented by a point mass M(sub c) at the center and a geometrically thick, axisymmetric disk of mass M(sub d) that supports uniform specific angular momentum and obeys an n = 3/2, polytropic equation of state. The equilibrium disk structure is uniquely defined upon the specification of two key dimensionless system parameters: M(sub d)/M(sub c) and T/absolute value of W (the ratio of rotational kinetic energy if the disk to the gravitational potential energy of the system). The focus of this work is on the identification of systems within this two-dimensional parameter space that are marginally unstable toward the development of nonaxisymmetric distortions. The geometric form and relative pattern speed of the disk's distortion as well as the likelihood of disk fragmentation as a result of such instabilities is examined, particularly in the context of protostellar systems. The value of T/absolute value of W at which thick disks first become dynamically unstable to nonaxisymmetric distortions is found to vary significantly with the mass ratio of the accertion disk system. Nonaxisymmetric eigenmodes with four distinctly different characters are identified in systems with mass ratios in the range 0.2 less than or equal to (M(sub d)/M(sub c)) less than or equal to 5.

Woodward, John W.

The conductive propagation of nuclear flames. 2: Convectively bounded flames in C + O and O + Ne + Mg cores

We determine the speeds, and many other physical properties, of flame fronts that propagate inward into degenerate and semidegenerate cores of carbon and oxygen (CO) and neon and oxygen (NeOMg) white dwarfs when such flames are bounded on their exterior by a convective region. Combustion in such fronts, per se, is incomplete, with only a small part of the initial mass function burned. A condition of balanced power is set up in the star where the rate of energy emitted as neutrinos from the convective region equals the power available from the unburned fuel that crosses the burning front. The propagation of the burning front itself is in turn limited by the temperature at the base of the convective shell, while cannot greatly exceed the adiabatic value. Solving for consistency between these two conditions gives a unique speed for the flame. Typical values for CO white dwarfs are a few hundredths of a centimeter per second. Flames in NeOMg mixtures are slower. Tables are presented in a form that can easily be implemented in stellar evolution codes and yield the rate at which the convective shell advances into the interior. Combining these velocities with the local equations for stellar structure, we find a minimum density for each gravitational potential below with the local equations for stellar structure, we find a minimum density for each gravitational potential below which the flame cannot propagate, and must die. Although detailed stellar models will have to be constructed to reslove some issues conclusively, our results that a CO white dwarf inginted at its edge will not burn carbon all the way to its center unless the mass of the white dwarf exceeds 0.8 solar mass. On the other hand, it is difficult to ignite carbon burning by compression alone anywhere in a white dwarf whose mass does not exceed 1.0 solar mass. Thus, compressionally ignited shell carbon burning in an accerting CO dwarf almost certainly propagates all the way to the center of the star. Implications for neutron star formation, and Type Ia supernova models, are briefly discussed. These are also applicable to massive stars in the about 10-12 solar mass range which ignite neon burning off center.

Timmes, F. X.

Utilitarian models of the solar nebula

Models of the primitive solar nebula based on a combination of theory, observations of T Tauri stars, and global conservation laws are presented. The models describe the motions of nebular gas, mixing of interstellar material during the formation of the nebula, and evolution of thermal structure in terms of several characteristic parameters. The parameters describe key aspects of the protosolar cloud (its rotation rate and collapse rate) and the nebula (its mass relative to the Sun, decay time, and density distribution). For most applications, the models are heuristic rather than predicted. Their purpose is to provide a realistic context for the interpretation of solar system data, and to distinquish those nebular characteristics that can be specified with confidence, independently of the assumtions of particular models, form those that are poorly constrained. It is demonstrated that nebular gas typically experienced large radial excursions during the evolution of the nebula and that both inward and outward mean radial velocities on the order of meters per second occured in the terrestrial planet region, with inward velocities predominant for most ofthe evolution. However, the time history of disk size, surface density, and radial velocities are sensitive to the total angular momentun of the protosolar cloud, which cannot be constrained by purely theoretical considerations.It is shown that a certain amount of 'formational' mixing of interstellar material was an inevitable consequenc of nebular mass and angular momentum transport during protostellar collapse, regardless of the specific transport mechanisms invloved. Even if the protosolar cloud was initially homogeneous, this mixing was important because it had the effect of mingling presolar material that had experienced different degrees of thermal processing during collapse and passage through the accertion shock. Nebular thermal structure is less sensitive to poorly constrained parameters than is dynamical history. A simple criterion is derived for the condition that silicate grains are evaporated at midplane, and it is argued that this condition was probably fulfilled early in nebular history. Cooling of a hot nebula due tocoagulation of dust and consequent local reduction of optical depth is examined, and it is shown how such a process leads naturally to an enrichment of rock-forming elements in the gas phase.

Cassen, Patrick

Quantifying Capital Cost Reduction Pathways for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

The framework developed in this study is provided both as an excel sheet (https://inl.gov/content/uploads/2023/11/Nuclear-Reactor-Cost-Reduction-Pathway-Spreadsheet-Tool.xlsx) and a Python (Jupyter) Notebook (link: https://github.com/accert-dev/ACCERT/tree/main/Cost%20Reduction). Capital cost considerations are one of the primary inhibitors to the large-scale deployment of nuclear power plants. While it is widely accepted that first units will likely be expensive and relatively uncompetitive, it is reasonable to expect that subsequent units, built in relative quick succession, will be cheaper as they benefit from the so-called “learning effects”. However, the large degree of uncertainty associated with this parameter renders it challenging for first movers to invest in the first few expensive units. To resolve this impasse, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Nuclear Liftoff study advocated for the formation of large, committed order books of plants of the same technology to spread the costs across several units and kickstart the nuclear supply chain. The study also advocated best practices for avoiding overruns and keeping reactors on budget. This report builds on these key recommendations by attempting to quantify specific pathways toward cost reduction for nuclear energy. A capital cost estimation framework was built to untangle the effect of learning into a subset of key cost drivers, referred to as “levers”. Collectively, the choice of these levers is intended to reflect the decision-making of high-level stakeholders like plant owners and the government. In addition to the size of the firm orderbook, these levers included (a) cost drivers that are most often attributed to cost overruns such as architect/engineering (A/E) proficiency, construction proficiency, procurement service proficiency, design completion prior to the start of construction, and design maturity, and (b) cost reduction strategies such as modular construction, cross-site standardization, safety classification of the reactor building, and of the balance of plant. Two advanced reactor designs were leveraged as use cases and bottom-up cost estimates made with assumptions consistent with a well-executed first-of-a-kind project (WE-FOAK, i.e., almost no overruns) were used as baselines for the models. Cost correlations were surveyed from the literature to determine the impact of important variables on projected timelines and costs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS