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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Climate adaptation in Populus trichocarpa : key adaptive loci identified for stomata and leaf traits

We investigated adaptive genetic variation in Populus trichocarpa, a potential biofuel feedstock crop, to better understand how physiological traits may influence tolerance to water limitation. Our study focused on leaf and stomatal traits, given their roles in plant–water relations and adaptation. Using a diversity panel of over 1300 genotypes, we measured 14 leaf and stomatal traits under control (well-watered) and drought (water-limited) conditions. We conducted genome-wide association studies (GWAS), climate association analyses, and transcriptome (RNA-seq) profiling to identify genetic loci associated with phenotypic variation and adaptation. Stomatal traits, including size and density, were correlated with the climate of origin, with genotypes from more arid regions tending to have smaller but denser stomata. GWAS identified multiple loci associated with trait variation, including a major-effect region on chromosome 10 linked to stomatal size and abaxial contact angle. This locus overlapped with a tandem array of 3-ketoacyl-CoA synthase (KCS) genes and showed strong allele–climate and gene expression associations. Our findings reveal genetic and phenotypic variation consistent with local adaptation and suggest that future climates may favor alleles associated with smaller stomata, particularly under increasing aridity. This work provides insights into climate adaptation and breeding strategies for resilience in perennial crops.

Populus trichocarpa↗
DOE OSTI2026

Adapt: A Weather Radar Data Analysis and Nowcasting Platform for Informed Adaptive Scanning

SF-26-021 Adapt is a data processing platform for real-time data analysis, short term prediction of targets convective cells and tracking for archived data. It provides tools for downloading, processing, segmenting, projecting, analyzing, and visualizing storm cell data from weather radar. The pipeline includes cell detection, motion estimation using optical flow, cell property extraction, and persistence to NetCDF and SQLite/Parquet for guiding adaptive scanning.

Raut, Bhupendra Ashokrao [Argonne National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Importance of Being Adaptable: An Exploration of the Power and Limitations of Domain Adaptation for Simulation-Based Inference with Galaxy Clusters

The application of deep machine learning methods in astronomy has exploded in the last decade, with new models showing remarkably improved performance on benchmark tasks. Not nearly enough attention is given to understanding the models' robustness, especially when the test data are systematically different from the training data, or "out of domain." Domain shift poses a significant challenge for simulation-based inference, where models are trained on simulated data but applied to real observational data. In this paper, we explore domain shift and test domain adaptation methods for a specific scientific case: simulation-based inference for estimating galaxy cluster masses from X-ray profiles. We build datasets to mimic simulation-based inference: a training set from the Magneticum simulation, a scatter-augmented training set to capture uncertainties in scaling relations, and a test set derived from the IllustrisTNG simulation. We demonstrate that the Test Set is out of domain in subtle ways that would be difficult to detect without careful analysis. We apply three deep learning methods: a standard neural network (NN), a neural network trained on the scatter-augmented input catalogs, and a Deep Reconstruction-Regression Network (DRRN), a semi-supervised deep model engineered to address domain shift. Although the NN improves results by 17% in the Training Data, it performs 40% worse on the out-of-domain Test Set. Surprisingly, the Scatter-Augmented Neural Network (SANN) performs similarly. While the DRRN is successful in mapping the training and Test Data onto the same latent space, it consistently underperforms compared to a straightforward Yx scaling relation. These results serve as a warning that simulation-based inference must be handled with extreme care, as subtle differences between training simulations and observational data can lead to unforeseen biases creeping into the results.

Ntampaka, Michelle [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal Adaptation of Enzyme‐Mediated Processes Reduces Simulated Soil CO2 Fluxes Upon Soil Warming

Abstract Understanding factors influencing carbon effluxes from soils to the atmosphere is important in a world experiencing climatic change. Two important uncertainties related to soil organic carbon (SOC) stock responses to a changing climate are (a) whether soil microbial communities acclimate or adapt to changes in soil temperature and (b) how to represent this process in SOC models. To further explore these issues, we included thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes in a mechanistic SOC model (ReSOM) using the macromolecular rate theory. Thermal adaptation is defined here to encompass all potential responses of soil microbes and microbial communities following a change in temperature. To assess the effects of thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes on simulated SOC losses, ReSOM was applied to data collected from a 13‐year soil warming experiment. Results show that a model omitting thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes substantially overestimates observed CO 2 effluxes during the initial years of soil warming. The bias against observed CO 2 effluxes was lower for models including thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes. In addition, for a simulated linear 3°C soil warming over 100 years, models including thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes simulated SOC losses of a factor of three smaller than models omitting this process. As thermal adaptation of microbial community characteristics is generally not included in models simulating feedback between the soil, biosphere and atmosphere, we encourage future studies to assess the potential impact that microbial adaptation has on soil carbon – climate feedback representations in models. Plain Language Summary A major uncertainty in projecting how much soil organic carbon (SOC) will be converted to CO 2 as a consequence of climate change is related to how soil microbes may adapt to increasing soil temperatures. While this “microbial thermal adaptation” has been shown to occur in short‐term lab incubation experiments, its effect on SOC cycling on a decadal timescale is not clear. To address this knowledge gap, a mechanistic SOC model was used to simulate data collected from a 13‐year soil warming experiment, to assess how microbial thermal adaptation affects predicted SOC losses upon soil warming. The model results show that incorporating microbial thermal adaptation into the model led to reduced CO 2 effluxes from the soil to the atmosphere compared to the common approach of omitting this mechanism. Our results imply that projected SOC losses for the decades to come may be reduced when this mechanism is incorporated in land models. We therefore advocate for more research on the mechanisms controlling microbial thermal adaptation, and how to implement this mechanism in SOC models. Key Points A crucial aspect of soil organic carbon (SOC) models is the representation of soil microbes Predicted soil CO 2 fluxes upon soil warming are reduced when accounting for microbial thermal adaptation On a centennial time scale, this thermal adaptation results in up to a factor of three lower predicted SOC loss

Van de Broek, Marijn↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water‐Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States

Abstract The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system‐wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub‐region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures. However, when implemented at scale, indoor water conservation reduces electricity use by an average of 683 Terawatt hours while wastewater recycling increases energy use by an average of 721 Terawatt hours, cumulatively from 2020 to 2070. Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge adaptations increase the ability to meet agricultural water demand, increase groundwater storage, and reduce summertime electricity use. While most of these findings are consistent across different climate projections, the benefits of aquifer recharge are sensitive to spatial variation of precipitation. Given the limitations and tradeoffs of each individually, the results suggest that a portfolio of adaptation measures will be needed for a climate‐resilient water and energy future in the Western US. Plain Language Summary The Western US faces increased water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet demands for cities, agriculture, and hydropower facilities. Adaptation measures like water conservation, retiring agricultural lands, recycling wastewater, and storing water underground can address these challenges. However, there is little modeling to understand the impact of these adaptations if they were implemented across the entire Western US while also considering climate change. We use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate how implementing adaptation measures impacts groundwater levels, the ability to meet water demands, and electricity use related to water in three different possible climate futures. We find that recycling wastewater to drinking water standards does a better job of meeting urban water demands than water conservation measures. However, indoor water conservation reduces energy use for water while recycling wastewater increases energy use for water. Retiring agricultural lands and storing water underground both increase the ability to meet agricultural water demands, increase underground water storage, and reduce summertime energy use. No adaptation measures provides benefits across every metric we track. Therefore, multiple adaptation measures will likely be needed to achieve a climate‐resilient future for energy and water in the Western US. Key Points Water‐related climate change adaptations have different benefits and tradeoffs for interconnected water‐energy systems in the Western U.S. Wastewater recycling most increases urban water coverage, but has a significant tradeoff in the form of greater electricity use Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge benefit water and electricity systems most in the summer when those systems are most stressed

Singhal, A↗
DOE OSTI2025

Local adaptation of both plant and pathogen: an arms‐race compromise in switchgrass rust

In coevolving species, parasites locally adapt to host populations as hosts locally adapt to resist parasites. Parasites often outpace host local adaptation since they have rapid life cycles, but host diversity, the strength of selection, and external environmental influence can result in complex outcomes. To better understand local adaptation in host–parasite systems, we examined locally adapted switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), and its leaf rust pathogen (Puccinia novopanici) across a latitudinal range in North America. We grew switchgrass genotypes in 10 replicated multiyear common gardens, measuring rust severity from natural infection in a ‘host reciprocal transplant’ framework for testing local adaptation. We conducted genome-wide association mapping to identify genetic loci associated with rust severity. Genetically differentiated rust populations were locally adapted to northern and southern switchgrass, despite host local adaptation to environmental conditions in the same regions. Rust resistance was polygenic, and distinct loci were associated with rust severity in the north and south. We narrowed a previously identified large-effect quantitative trait locus for rust severity to a candidate YELLOW STRIPE-LIKE gene and linked numerous other loci to defense-related genes. Overall, our results suggest that both hosts and parasites can be simultaneously locally adapted, especially when parasites impose less selection than other environmental factors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Angular-spatial hp -adaptivity for radiative transfer with discontinuous Galerkin spectral element methods

Radiative transfer is important for many science and engineering applications, and numerical simulations of radiative transfer can be challenging. For instance, the radiation field is seven-dimensional – three spatial, two angular, one wavelength, and one temporal – and often features steep gradients. Therefore, memory usage is a key issue. To reduce memory, some past work has investigated the use of adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), typically for either the spatial or angular coordinate, and typically for only h -adaptivity. Here, we propose the use of AMR for the spatial and angular coordinates together, and the use of h - and p -adaptivity together as hp -AMR for the potential for further memory savings. We implemented the proposed method for several test cases in two spatial and one angular dimension, with the discontinuous Galerkin spectral element method. These test cases featured highly anisotropic angular radiation, with or without steep spatial gradients. Our primary findings from these test cases were: (1) Angular hp -adaptivity can deliver the radiation solution with the same accuracy as, and with much less computational memory than, uniform angular h - or p -refinements, or angular h -adaptivity alone. This is most obvious when the incoming radiation is highly anisotropic, in which case the savings can be orders of magnitude. (2) Full spatial-angular hp -adaptivity is more efficient in solution representation, compared to solely spatial or solely angular -adaptivity. This is most evident when steep gradients are present in both the spatial and angular distribution. These results suggest that adaptive spatial- hp angular-refinement may perform well in large-scale seven-dimensional applications.

Adaptive refinement↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing measurement costs by recycling the Hessian in adaptive variational quantum algorithms

Abstract Adaptive protocols enable the construction of more efficient state preparation circuits in variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) by utilizing data obtained from the quantum processor during the execution of the algorithm. This idea originated with Adaptive Derivative-Assembled Problem-Tailored variational quantum eigensolver (ADAPT-VQE), an algorithm that iteratively grows the state preparation circuit operator by operator, with each new operator accompanied by a new variational parameter, and where all parameters acquired thus far are optimized in each iteration. In ADAPT-VQE and other adaptive VQAs that followed it, it has been shown that initializing parameters to their optimal values from the previous iteration speeds up convergence and avoids shallow local traps in the parameter landscape. However, no other data from the optimization performed at one iteration is carried over to the next. In this work, we propose an improved quasi-Newton optimization protocol specifically tailored to adaptive VQAs. The distinctive feature in our proposal is that approximate second derivatives of the cost function are recycled across iterations in addition to optimal parameter values. We implement a quasi-Newton optimizer where an approximation to the inverse Hessian matrix is continuously built and grown across the iterations of an adaptive VQA. The resulting algorithm has the flavor of a continuous optimization where the dimension of the search space is augmented when the gradient norm falls below a given threshold. We show that this inter-optimization exchange of second-order information leads the approximate Hessian in the state of the optimizer to be consistently closer to the exact Hessian. As a result, our method achieves a superlinear convergence rate even in situations where the typical implementation of a quasi-Newton optimizer converges only linearly. Our protocol decreases the measurement costs in implementing adaptive VQAs on quantum hardware as well as the runtime of their classical simulation.

Ramôa, Mafalda (ORCID:0000000302187801)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Signatures of local nitrogen adaptation in the Brachypodium distachyon root microbiome

Plants associate with diverse microbiomes that impact their fitness, yet the contribution of the microbiome to plant adaptation is uncertain. As plant recruitment of its microbiome can be both highly variable and genetically determined, we hypothesized this recruitment process may be the result of adaptive evolution, and contributing to plant local adaptation. We investigated the evolution and adaptive benefit of plant–microbiome recruitment by characterizing the rhizosphere communities across a genotypic panel of Brachypodium distachyon in a common garden experiment. By linking microbial communities to their host genotype's historic environment, we identified signatures of selection on plant–microbiome recruitment. Plant–microbiome composition was significantly correlated with the host genotype's historic environment, with enrichment of microbial traits aligned to local resource conditions. For example, genotypes from low-nitrogen environments recruited communities enriched in nitrogen acquisition traits. In a complementary experiment evaluating plant nitrogen response, these same genotypes were well-adapted to low-nitrogen environments, contingent on the presence of key nitrogen-cycling microbes. These results suggest that local adaptation in plants may partially be mediated by recruitment of beneficial microbiomes. This perspective suggests that plant adaptation may be an emergent property of host–microbe interactions, where evolutionary responses favor traits that promote recruitment of locally beneficial microbiomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenging excited states from adaptive quantum eigensolvers: subspace expansions vs. state-averaged strategies

The prediction of electronic structure for strongly correlated molecules represents a promising application for near-term quantum computers. Significant attention has been paid to ground state wavefunctions, but excited states of molecules are relatively unexplored. In this work, we consider the adaptive, problem-tailored (ADAPT)-variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithm, a single-reference approach for obtaining ground states, and its state-averaged generalization for computing multiple states at once. We demonstrate for both rectangular and linear H4, as well as for BeH2, that this approach, which we call multistate-objective, Ritz-eigenspectral (MORE)-ADAPT-VQE, can make better use of small excitation manifolds than an analogous method based on a single-reference ADAPT-VQE calculation, q-sc-EOM. In particular, MORE-ADAPT-VQE is able to accurately describe both avoided crossings and crossings between states of different symmetries. In addition to more accurate excited state energies, MORE-ADAPT-VQE can recover accurate transition dipole moments in situations where traditional ADAPT-VQE and q-sc-EOM struggle. These improvements suggest a promising direction toward the use of quantum computers for difficult excited state problems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Drought adaptation index (DAI) based on BLUP as a selection approach for drought-resilient switchgrass germplasm

This study introduces a Drought Adaptation Index (DAI), derived from Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP), as a method to assess drought resilience in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.). A panel of 404 genotypes was evaluated under drought-stressed (CV) and well-watered (UC) conditions over four consecutive years (2019–2022). BLUP-estimated biomass yields were used to calculate the DAI, which enabled classification of genotypes into four adaptation groups: very well-adapted, well-adapted, adapted, and unadapted. The DAI was compared with conventional drought tolerance indices, including the Stress Susceptibility Index (SSI), Stress Tolerance Index (STI), Geometric Mean Productivity (GMP), and Yield Stability Index (YSI). Correlation analyses demonstrated strong agreement between DAI and these indices, supporting its validity and consistency. Biplot analyses using the Genotype plus Genotype-by-Environment Interaction (GGE) and Additive Main Effects and Multiplicative Interaction (AMMI) models revealed significant genotype-by-environment interactions (GEI) and identified J222.A, J463.A, and J295.A. A as high-performing genotypes, with J222.A exhibiting greater yield stability across treatments and years. Additionally, DAI isoline curves provided a graphical representation of differential genotype performance under drought and control conditions. These visualizations aided in distinguishing genotypes with stable and superior biomass yield across contrasting environments. Overall, the BLUP-based DAI is a robust and practical selection tool that improves the accuracy of identifying drought-resilient, high-yielding switchgrass genotypes. Its integration into breeding programs offers a comprehensive framework for improving biomass productivity and stress adaptation under variable climatic conditions. The application of DAI supports the development of climate-resilient cultivars and contributes to sustainable bioenergy and forage production systems.

BLUP↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive anomaly detection for identifying attacks in cyber-physical systems: A systematic literature review

Modern cyberattacks in cyber-physical systems (CPS) rapidly evolve and cannot be deterred effectively with most current methods, which focus on characterizing past threats. Adaptive anomaly detection (AAD) is among the most promising techniques to detect evolving cyberattacks, with an emphasis on fast data processing and model adaptation. AAD has been researched extensively; however, to the best of our knowledge, our work is the first systematic literature review (SLR) on current research in this field. We present a comprehensive SLR, gathering 397 relevant papers and systematically analyzing 65 of them (47 research and 18 survey papers) on AAD in CPS from 2013 to November 2023. We introduce a novel taxonomy considering attack types, CPS application, learning paradigm, data management, and algorithms. Our findings show that most studies addressed either model adaptation or data processing, but rarely both simultaneously. This indicates a research gap in fully adaptive solutions. We also categorize algorithms, datasets, and attack characteristics, and summarize strengths and weaknesses across the literature. Our review provides a structured and accessible reference for researchers and practitioners, offering insights into key trends and highlighting limitations in current approaches. Finally, we outline several future research directions, including the need for integrated real-time processing and adaptive learning, explainability, and uncertainty quantification in AAD for CPS.

Adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sim-to-real supervised domain adaptation for radioisotope identification

Machine learning has the potential to improve the speed and reliability of radioisotope identification using gamma spectroscopy. However, meticulously labeling an experimental dataset for training is often prohibitively expensive, while training models purely on synthetic data is risky due to the domain gap between simulated and experimental measurements. In this research, we demonstrate that supervised domain adaptation can substantially improve the performance of radioisotope identification models by transferring knowledge between synthetic and experimental data domains. We consider two domain adaptation scenarios: (1) a simulation-to-simulation adaptation, where we perform multi-label proportion estimation using simulated high-purity germanium detectors, and (2) a simulation-to-experimental adaptation, where we perform multi-class, single-label classification using measured spectra from handheld lanthanum bromide (LaBr) and sodium iodide (NaI) detectors. We begin by pretraining a spectral classifier on synthetic data using a custom transformer-based neural network. After subsequent fine-tuning on just 64 labeled experimental spectra, we achieve a test accuracy of 96% in the sim-to-real scenario with a LaBr detector, far surpassing a synthetic-only baseline model (75%) and a model trained from scratch (80%) on the same 64 spectra. Furthermore, we demonstrate that domain-adapted models learn more human-interpretable features than experiment-only baseline models. Overall, our results highlight the potential for supervised domain adaptation techniques to bridge the sim-to-real gap in radioisotope identification, enabling the development of accurate and explainable classifiers even in real-world scenarios where access to experimental data is limited.

Lalor, Peter W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Weight Determination and Interstate Coupling in State-Averaged ADAPT-VQE

Characterizing electronic thermal states at low temperatures is an important but challenging task in quantum chemistry and condensed matter physics, making it a prime candidate for a useful application in quantum computing. One of the most successful methods for state preparation on quantum computers is the Adaptive, Problem-Tailored (ADAPT) Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE), which has recently been generalized to treat excited states within a state-averaged framework as well as Gibbs states. In this work, we introduce Helmholtz-Optimized Thermal (HOT) ADAPT-VQE, an ancilla-free strategy for preparing Gibbs states that directly minimizes the Helmholtz free energy by targeting the dominant eigenstates of the thermal ensemble. We demonstrate the usefulness of HOT-ADAPT-VQE by predicting the free energy of two model systems with strongly correlated ground states: (1) the Fe 2+ cation in a magnetic field and (2) a [Cu 2 O 7 ] 10– fragment of the Mott insulator La 2 CuO 4 . Our results demonstrate that HOT-ADAPT-VQE significantly improves upon Gibbs-state estimates from multistate variants of ADAPT-VQE, often with substantially shallower quantum circuits, making it a promising candidate for thermal-state calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Functional team selection as a framework for local adaptation in plants and their belowground microbiomes

Abstract Multicellular organisms are hosts to diverse communities of smaller organisms known as microbiomes. Plants have distinctive microbiomes that can provide important functions related to nutrition, defense, and stress tolerance. Empirical studies provide convincing evidence that in some—but not all—circumstances, belowground microbiomes help plants adapt to their local environment. The purpose of this review is to develop functional team selection (FTS) as a framework to help predict the conditions necessary for root microbiomes to generate local adaptation for their plant hosts. FTS envisions plants and their microbiomes as complex adaptive systems, and plant adaptations as emergent properties of these systems. If plants have the capacity to recognize and cultivate beneficial microbes and suppress pathogens, then it is possible for plants to evolve the capacity to gain adaptations by curating their microbiome. In resource-limited and stressful environments, the emergent functions of complex microbial systems may contribute to positive feedback linked to plant vigor, and ultimately, local adaptation. The key factors in this process are: (i) selective force, (ii) host constitution, (iii) microbial diversity, and (iv) time. There is increasing interest in harnessing beneficial microbial interactions in agriculture and many microbial growth-promoting products are commercially available, but their use is controversial because a large proportion of these products fail to consistently enhance plant growth. The FTS framework may help direct the development of durable plant-microbiome systems that enhance crop production and diminish pathogens. It may also provide valuable insights for understanding and managing other kinds of host-microbe systems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Community-Engaged Modeling of Urban Flood Adaptation Pathways

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Spangler, Ava [Pennsylvania State University] (ORC↗