Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions
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Shuyu Y. Chang↗
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Advancement of Deep Learning and Geometric Methods for Active Terrain Relative Navigation
To enhance NASA’s precision landing capabilities, in conjunction with the development of a novel active terrain relative navigation (ATRN) and terrain mapping system, denoted SHERIF, this work performed a comparative analysis between both deep-learning (DL) based and geometric approaches to hazard detection (HD) and safe-site-identification (SSI) through hardware-in-the loop testing on the Six degree-of-freedom Tendon Actuated Robot (STAR). The Standalone Hazard Evaluation and Refinement using Instrument Findings (SHERIF) system is capable of ingesting sensor data at an asynchronous rate, stitching successive terrain scans together to yield a high-resolution digital elevation map (DEM), performing absolute and relative localization using novel 3D feature extraction and matching methods, and HD/SSI activities. The DL-based HD/SSI algorithm provides a modular alternative to classical geometric approaches which have performance times that scale with map resolution. As the adoption of AI solutions become more prevalent for autonomous system decision making, it is prudent to explore the utility of such solutions in applications where they traditionally excel, such as image classification. Along with the development of a DL-based HD system, this work performed the first comparative analysis between DL and geometric approaches to HD/SSI using real sensor data from real-time testing in a relevant environment.
Davis Adams↗
Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland
As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term. The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.
Disasters↗
Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland
As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRMM Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.
Disasters↗
Deep Learning Method for Detecting Precursors to Adverse Events
With the recent advancements in Deep Learning methods, the ability to model large complex heterogeneous data sets are fundamentally changing industry and research. Coupled with hardware improvements, and ease of implementation, a wide variety of deep neural network architectures can quickly be developed to solve a sweeping range of problems such as: object detection in images, automatic healthcare diagnosis using heterogenous data sources, real time language translating and sentence prediction, upscaling low resolution images, and forecasting of multivariate timeseries. Generally, many of these architectures outperform classical machine learning approaches in their respective tasks, however, this typically comes at a cost of interpretability. These black box algorithms generally suffer from lack of transparency in both model complexity as well as the rationale behind the prediction. This lack of comprehension, is driving an emerging area of interest in “Explainable AI”. An algorithm called: “Deep Temporal Multiple Instance Learning”1 was a recently developed to identify precursors to adverse events and has been applied in the aviation domain. The deep learning architecture is designed to capture the evolution of the probability of the outcome over the time preceding the adverse event using a multiple instance learning approach as illustrated in Figure 1. Precursors are defined when the probability of the event has exceeded a threshold at some point in the timeseries, at which point, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine contributing factors. The contributing factors are used to explain and define the precursor during the periods where the probability score is high. The identified contributing factors are then presented to subject matter experts to provide objective insights into the leading factors associated with the particular adverse event. The algorithm has been tested on flight data from a commercial airline and has the ability to discover precursors to known adverse events that take the form of safety critical operations, such as unstable approach events on final approach. Apart from detecting precursors to adverse events, the converse can also be leveraged to discover corrective actions. These positive actions manifest themselves as periods in the timeseries when the precursor score has been lowered from an elevated state; meaning that if the system had been left uncorrected, it would have eventually reached the adverse event state. Characterizing these state changes can help identify successful interventions that may not have been known before. Policy makers and procedure designers can use this additional knowledge to craft more safety and efficient resilient procedures for future operations and therefore improve the overall performance of the National Airspace.
Matthews, Bryan L.↗
The Application of Artificial Intelligence Deep Learning to Visually Identify Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Impacts
Recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) are changing the World. Novel approaches to training AI systems have led to dramatic reductions in the amount of time required. Training an AI system could take years and teams of people using traditional methods, but with the advancements of Deep Learning (DL) models this training can now be accomplished by an individual in a matter of minutes. The development of “fast AI” libraries has delivered AI to essentially everyone. Democratization of AI power has inspired many to revisit past problems that will benefit from DL approaches. For example, the application of AI has improved detection of breast cancer by 20% compared to traditional detection methods. Computer vision and machine learning are being used to identify soil deficiencies and provide planting recommendations to farmers. Success stories like these and many others have provided inspiration to see if AI can help improve one of our needed capabilities – that of visually identifying micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impact damage to spacecraft from images of the spacecraft exterior. The need to visually locate and characterize spacecraft MMOD impact damage has been present since the early days of space travel. This is often done by either having a crew member take photographs of the spacecraft through a window using a hand-held camera or ground personnel directing externally-mounted cameras. The photographs are then transmitted back to Earth for visual analysis. This method of MMOD damage inspection works well and has been used on various spacecraft including the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station (ISS). One of the issues with the current method that we believe AI could improve is the speed and possibly the accuracy in identifying MMOD impacts. Note that detecting MMOD impacts in images can be very difficult. The visual appearance of an MMOD impact can change dramatically with lighting conditions, size of impact, depth of penetration, material types, surface waviness, fabric coverings, camera & lens, distance to surface, spacecraft orientation, analyst experience, and many other factors. Currently, this takes a team of highly-experienced specialists in both the fields of Image Analysis and MMOD impacts. This paper documents our initial research in training an AI DL model using the fast-AI library to identify actual and simulated MMOD impacts and perforations into exposed flat surfaces. While we recognize that this initial goal seems modest, it must be noted that what we have done would have taken teams of individuals and years of training just ten years ago. Our long-term goal is to add complexity and use-cases to the DL model being trained to expand the capabilities of this model so that it can be used to identify MMOD impacts on all types of spacecraft surfaces.
Cameron M Collins↗
A Generalized Approach to Aircraft Trajectory Prediction via Supervised Deep Learning
As research advances diverse forms and missions of aircraft, the National Airspace System (NAS) will become increasingly crowded, limiting current communications resources to accommodate aviation operations. Ongoing research proposes a paradigm of airspace communications, such that resources are autonomously and dynamically allocated via intelligent agents; this allocation requires accurate representations of the NAS, including the predicted positions of aircraft. State-of-the-art research emphasizes the importance of a hybrid-recurrent framework for trajectory prediction and compares the impact of commonly considered weather data on prediction accuracy. However, current research has been limited in its scope of efforts, frequently utilizing a unique flight route, architecture, set of weather data, and date range. This article considers the challenges of generalizing hybrid-recurrent predictive models for flight trajectories. Results illustrate an increase in error variance when identical models are trained over a generalized set of flights; this may be mitigated with careful tuning of hyperparameters, both in the network structure and optimization algorithms. Even so, an irreducible vertical error was identified, resulting from the complex takeoff and landing procedures which can not be correlated to functions of weather or additional assumptions of aircraft behavior. Finally, the use of a test route indicates that generalized models still do not possess sufficient knowledge for general aircraft predictions, with mean error increases ranging from 70-500%. These results illustrate the need for continued efforts on improving model versatility, as well as potential limitations for spectrum allocation near airports and other centers.
Nathan Schimpf↗
Deep Learning Models for Planetary Seismicity Detection
Research in planetary seismology is fundamentally constrained by a lack of data. Seismo-logical science products of future missions can typically only be informed by theoretical signal/noise characteristics of the environment or likely Earth-analogues. Although objectives can be re-assessed after some initial data-collection upon lander arrival, transfer of high-resolution data back to Earth is costly on lander power usage. Over the last several years, development of GPU computing techniques and open-source high-level APIs have led to rapid advances in deep learning within the fields of computer vision, natural language processing, and collaborative filtering. These techniques are actively being adapted in seismology for a variety of tasks, including: earthquake detection, seismic phase discrimination, and ground-motion prediction. Until the recent detection of mars quakes during the Mars InSight mission, the only other measurements of seismicity recorded outside of Earth was on the Moon during the Apollo missions between 1969 to 1977. These unique data sets have been periodically revisited using new seismological methods, including ambient noise interferometry and Hidden Markov Models. Our objective is to develop a deep learning seismic detector and use it to catalog moonquakes from the Apollo 17 Lunar Seismic Profiling Experiment (LSPE) and compare the results with those obtained by other methods. Additionally, we will assess the accuracy tradeoff between using a training set of lunar data and one composed of Earth seismicity. In this document, we present preliminary results using a prototype classifier trained on a small set of earthquakes that was able to obtain detections for LSPE moonquakes with a greater accuracy than a recent study using Hidden Markov Models.
Civilini, F.↗
PERSIANN-Unet: A Global Deep Learning Framework for Near-Real-Time Precipitation Estimation Using Infrared Data
Access to high-quality, high-resolution, near-real-time precipitation data is essential for hydrological and meteorological research and disaster mitigation. Traditional tools such as rain gauges and radar networks, though effective, have limitations, including sparse coverage in remote areas and high operational costs. Satellite data, with its global coverage and high spatial and temporal resolutions, mitigates limitations in coverage. Satellite precipitation products like Hydro Estimator (HE), Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) utilize both geosynchronous thermal infrared (IR) and passive microwave (PMW) data in their operation. PMW sensors offer detailed atmospheric profiles but suffer from higher latency, whereas IR sensors provide lower latency but only capture cloud-top information. Despite this constraint, IR data remains attractive for low-latency precipitation estimation. Recent advances in deep learning, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), have further improved satellite precipitation retrievals. This study introduces PERSIANN-Unet (PUnet or PERSIANN V3), a quasi-global algorithm covering 60°N–60°S that combines IR data, monthly climatology, and the UNet architecture to produce half-hourly precipitation estimates at 0.04° resolution. The product is evaluated against HE, IMERG, and PDIR-Now for 2022–2023. Results show that PUnet closely matches its training target, IMERG V07 Final, at the global scale, and performance is further evaluated against Stage IV as a reference over CONUS. Training PUnet on IMERG (2016–2021) leverages a high-quality, integrated PMW IR-gauge precipitation product while developing an IR-based framework not reliant on PMW availability. By operating on a single global image, PUnet avoids tile partitioning and blending steps, reducing edge discontinuities, and produces more spatially consistent precipitation fields across hemispheres.
Phu Nguyen↗
NASA SpaceCube Edge TPU SmallSat Card for Autonomous Operations and Onboard Science-Data Analysis
Using state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI)frameworks onboard spacecraft is challenging because common spacecraft processors cannot provide comparable performance to datacenters with server-grade CPUs and GPUs available for terrestrial applications and advanced deep-learning networks. This limitation makes small, lo w-p o we r AI microchip architectures, such as the Google Coral Edge Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), attractive for space missions where the application-specific design enables both high-performance and power-efficient computing for AI applications. To address these challenging considerations for space deployment, this research introduces the design and capabilities of a CubeSat-sized Edge TPU-based co-processor card, known as the SpaceCube Low-power Ed g e Artificial Intelligence Resilient Node (SC-LEARN). This design conforms to NASA’s CubeSat Card Specification (CS2) for integration into next-generation SmallSat and CubeSat systems. This paper describes the overarching architecture and design of the SC-LEARN, as well as, the supporting test card designed for rapid prototyping and evaluation. The SC-LEARN was developed with three operational modes: (1) a high-performance parallel-processing mode,(2)a fault-tolerant mode for onboard resilience, and (3) a power-saving mode with cold spares. Importantly, this research also elaborates on both training and quantization of Tensor Flow models for the SC-LEARN for use onboard with representative, open-source datasets. Lastly, we describe future research plans, including radiation-beam testing and flight demonstration.
Advanced avionics↗
Contextual Segmentation of Fire Spotting Regions Through Satellite-Augmented Autonomous Modular Sensor Image
Globally, forest fires remain a significant threat to human and environmental wellbeing. Towards mitigating the impacts of forest fires, it is critical that accurate and updated information regarding not only the fire line, but also nearby human settlements, vegetation, and water sources is reported quickly to emergency services. However, while existing UAS-based fire detection methods are effective, they largely do not report the contextual environmental information necessary to best serve nearby communities in disaster response. Additionally, modern advancements in deep learning offer new approaches for image segmentation which may improve classification accuracy beyond current pixel-wise indices. In this work, we benchmark the performance of these modern segmentation techniques in locating both fire lines and environmental features in historical Autonomous Modular Sensor imagery. Furthermore, we augment these outputs with satellite imagery segmentation towards developing a robust contextual mapping tool for rapid emergency fire response and decision making.
Nikhil Behari↗
Autoencoders for Denoising Atmospheric Profiles from ICESat-2
Abstract: The 2nd generation Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-2) is an altimetry mission designed primarily for measuring ice sheet elevation and sea ice thickness, provides atmospheric profiles of clouds and aerosols at 532 nm using a photo counting detection approach. While highly sensitive for the detection of tenuous aerosol and cloud features, during the day signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) photon counting detectors are adversely impacted by solar contributions to the total signal. Averaging the data to coarser horizontal resolutions has been the standard way to increase SNR and thus allow clouds and aerosols to be more easily detectable. Recent work has demonstrated success in boosting SNR without decreasing resolution using advanced filtering techniques [Yorks et al., 2021], however, rapid advancements in Deep Learning based image denoising algorithms can further improve the SNR. Here, we present results using a state-of-the-art Deep Learning autoencoder applied to noisy ICESat-2 data to improve daytime SNR and discuss implications for atmospheric feature detection, classification, and optical property retrievals.
denoising↗
Heritage and Advanced Technology Systems Engineering Lessons Learned from NASA Deep Space Missions
In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology systems or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced and heritage systems within the spacecraft and mission environment identifies unanticipated technical issues. Resolving these issues often results in cost overruns and schedule impacts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that optimistic hardware/software inheritance and technology readiness assumptions caused cost and schedule growth for four of the five missions studied. The cost and schedule growth was not found to result from technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. The projects institutional inheritance and technology readiness processes appear to adequately assess technology viability and prevent technical issues from impacting the final mission success. However, the processes do not appear to identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: an inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of development experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the system-wide impacts necessary to implement an advanced technology for space flight applications. The paper summarizes the study's lessons learned in more detail and offers suggestions for improving the project's ability to identify and manage the technology and heritage risks inherent in the design solution.
Barley, Bryan↗
Tradeoffs When Considering Deep Reinforcement Learning for Contingency Management in Advanced Air Mobility
Air transportation is undergoing a rapid evolution globally with the introduction of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and with it comes novel challenges and opportunities for transforming aviation. As AAM operations introduce increasing heterogeneity in vehicle capabilities and density, increased levels of automation are likely necessary to achieve operational safety and efficiency goals. This paper focuses on one example where increased automation has been suggested. Autonomous operations will need contingency management systems that can monitor evolving risk across a span of interrelated (or interdependent) hazards and, if necessary, execute appropriate control interventions via supervised or automated decision making. Accommodating this complex environment may require automated functions (autonomy) that apply artificial intelligence (AI) techniques that can adapt and respond to a quickly changing environment. This paper explores the use of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) which has shown promising performance in complex and high-dimensional environments where the objective can be constructed as a sequential decision-making problem. An extension of a prior formulation of the contingency management problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) is presented and uses a DRL framework to train agents that mitigate hazards present in the simulation environment. A comparison of these learning-based agents and classical techniques is presented in terms of their performance, verification difficulties, and development process.
machine learningautonomous systems; flight simulat↗
Tradeoffs When Considering Deep Reinforcement Learning for Contingency Management in Advanced Air Mobility
Air transportation is undergoing a rapid evolution globally with the introduction of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and with it comes novel challenges and opportunities for transforming aviation. As AAM operations introduce increasing heterogeneity in vehicle capabilities and density, increased levels of automation are likely necessary to achieve operational safety and efficiency goals. This paper focuses on one example where increased automation has been suggested. Autonomous operations will need contingency management systems that can monitor evolving risk across a span of interrelated (or interdependent) hazards and, if necessary, execute appropriate control interventions via supervised or automated decision making. Accommodating this complex environment may require automated functions (autonomy) that apply artificial intelligence (AI) techniques that can adapt and respond to a quickly changing environment. This paper explores the use of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) which has shown promising performance in complex and high-dimensional environments where the objective can be constructed as a sequential decision-making problem. An extension of a prior formulation of the contingency management problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) is presented and uses a DRL framework to train agents that mitigate hazards present in the simulation environment. A comparison of these learning-based agents and classical techniques is presented in terms of their performance, verification difficulties, and development process.
machine learning↗
The Application of Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning to Visually Identify Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Impacts
Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) have made Machine Learning (ML) techniques readily available for practical applications while using a fraction of time that was previously required. In particular, the use of Deep Learning (DL) algorithms has advanced the field of image and pattern recognition. With the use of Deep Learning algorithms, Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris(MMOD) penetrations can be identified with high accuracy and give possibilities to new understandings of hypervelocity impacts.
Deep Learning↗
Application of Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics for Physics-Informed Learning
Advances in machine learning and deep neural networks has enabled complex engineering tasks like image recognition, anomaly detection, regression, and multi-objective optimization, to name but a few. The complexity of the algorithm architecture, e.g., the number of hidden layers in a deep neural network, typically grows with the complexity of the problems they are required to solve, leaving little room for interpreting (or explaining) the path that results in a specific solution. This drawback is particularly relevant for autonomous aerospace and aviation systems, where certifications require a complete understanding of the algorithm behavior in all possible scenarios. Including physics knowledge in such data-driven tools may improve the interpretability of the algorithms, thus enhancing model validation against events with low probability but relevant for system certification. Such events include, for example, spacecraft or aircraft sub-system failures, for which data may not be available in the training phase. This paper investigates a recent physics-informed learning algorithm for identification of system dynamics, and shows how the governing equations of a system can be extracted from data using sparse regression. The learned relationships can be utilized as a surrogate model which, unlike typical data-driven surrogate models, relies on the learned underlying dynamics of the system rather than large number of fitting parameters. The work shows that the algorithm can reconstruct the differential equations underlying the observed dynamics using a single trajectory when no uncertainty is involved. However, the training set size must increase when dealing with stochastic systems, e.g., nonlinear dynamics with random initial conditions.
Corbetta, Matteo↗
The Challenges of Human-Autonomy Teaming
Machine intelligence is improving rapidly based on advances in big data analytics, deep learning algorithms, networked operations, and continuing exponential growth in computing power (Moores Law). This growth in the power and applicability of increasingly intelligent systems will change the roles humans, shifting them to tasks where adaptive problem solving, reasoning and decision-making is required. This talk will address the challenges involved in engineering autonomous systems that function effectively with humans in aeronautics domains.
artificial intelligence↗