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Why do Tornados and Hail Storms Rest on Weekends?

When anthropogenic aerosols over the eastern USA during summertime are at their weekly mid-week peak, tornado and hail storm activity there is also near its weekly maximum. The weekly cycle in storm activity is statistically significant and unlikely to be due to natural variability. The pattern of variability supports the hypothesis that air pollution aerosols invigorate deep convective clouds in a moist, unstable atmosphere, to the extent of inducing production of large hailstones and tornados. This is caused by the effect of aerosols on cloud-drop nucleation, making cloud drops smaller, delaying precipitation-forming processes and their evaporation, and hence affecting cloud dynamics.

Rosenfeld, Daniel↗

Weekend Effect" in Summertime U.S. Rainfall: Evidence for Midweek Intensification of Storms by Pollution

Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue-Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models, suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

The Invigoration of Deep Convective Clouds Over the Atlantic: Aerosol Effect, Meteorology or Retrieval Artifact?

Associations between cloud properties and aerosol loading are frequently observed in products derived from satellite measurements. These observed trends between clouds and aerosol optical depth suggest aerosol modification of cloud dynamics, yet there are uncertainties involved in satellite retrievals that have the potential to lead to incorrect conclusions. Two of the most challenging problems are addressed here: the potential for retrieved aerosol optical depth to be cloud-contaminated, and as a result, artificially correlated with cloud parameters; and the potential for correlations between aerosol and cloud parameters to be erroneously considered to be causal. Here these issues are tackled directly by studying the effects of the aerosol on convective clouds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean using satellite remote sensing, a chemical transport model, and a reanalysis of meteorological fields. Results show that there is a robust positive correlation between cloud fraction or cloud top height and the aerosol optical depth, regardless of whether a stringent filtering of aerosol measurements in the vicinity of clouds is applied, or not. These same positive correlations emerge when replacing the observed aerosol field with that derived from a chemical transport model. Model-reanalysis data is used to address the causality question by providing meteorological context for the satellite observations. A correlation exercise between the full suite of meteorological fields derived from model reanalysis and satellite-derived cloud fields shows that observed cloud top height and cloud fraction correlate best with model pressure updraft velocity and relative humidity. Observed aerosol optical depth does correlate with meteorological parameters but usually different parameters from those that correlate with observed cloud fields. The result is a near-orthogonal influence of aerosol and meteorological fields on cloud top height and cloud fraction. The results strengthen the case that the aerosol does play a role in invigorating convective clouds.

Koren, Ilan↗

Observational Evidence of Aerosol Enhancement of Lightning Activity and Convective Invigoration

Lightning activity over the West Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines is usually much less frequent than over the nearby maritime continents. However, in 2005 the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) aboard the TRMM satellite observed anomalously high lightning activity in that area. In the same year the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measured anomalously high aerosol loading. The high aerosol loading was traced to volcanic activity, and not to any factor linked to meteorology, disentangling the usual convolution between aerosols and meteorology. We show that in general lightning activity is tightly correlated with aerosol loadings at both inter-annual and biweekly time scales. We estimate that a approximately 60% increase in aerosol loading leads to more than 150% increase in lightning flashes. Aerosols increase lightning activity through modification of cloud microphysics. Cloud ice particle sizes are reduced and cloud glaciation is delayed to colder temperature when aerosol loading is increased. TRMM precipitation radar measurements indicate that anomalously high aerosol loading is associated with enhanced cloud mixed phase activity and invigorated convection over the maritime ocean. These observed associations between aerosols, cloud microphysics, morphology and lightning activity are not related to meteorological variables or ENSO events. The results have important implications for understanding the variability of lightning and resulting aerosol-chemistry interactions.

Yuan, Tianle↗

The Coupling Between Tropical Meteorology, Aerosol Lifecycle, Convection, and Radiation, During the Clouds, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex)

The NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) employed the NASA P-3, Stratton Park Engineering Company (SPEC) Learjet 35, and a host of satellites and surface sensors to characterize the coupling of aerosol processes, cloud physics, and atmospheric radiation within the Maritime Continent’s complex southwest monsoonal environment. Conducted in the late summer of 2019 from Luzon Philippines in conjunction with the Office of Naval Research Propagation of Intraseasonal Tropical OscillatioNs (PISTON) experiment with its R/VSally Ride stationed in the North Western Tropical Pacific, CAMP2Ex documented diverse biomass burning, industrial and natural aerosol populations and their interactions with small to congestus convection. The 2019 season exhibited El Nino and associated drought, high biomass burning emissions, and an early monsoon transition allowing for observation of pristine to massively polluted environments as they advected through intricate diurnal mesoscale and radiative environments into the monsoonal trough. CAMP2Ex’s preliminary results indicate 1) increasing aerosol loadings tend to invigorate congestus convection in height and increase liquid water paths; 2) lidar, polarimetry, and geostationary Advanced Himawari Imager remote sensing sensors have skill in quantifying diverse aerosol and cloud properties and their interaction; and 3) high resolution remote sensing technologies are able to greatly improve our ability to evaluate the radiation budget in complex cloud systems. Through the development of innovative informatics technologies, CAMP2Ex provides a benchmark dataset of an environment of extremes for the study of aerosol, cloud and radiation processes as well as a crucible for the design of future observing systems.

CAMP2Ex↗

Possible Influences of Air Pollution, Dust and Sandstorms on the Indian Monsoon

In Asian monsoon countries, such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air pollution are becoming increasingly serious, due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants from waste gas emissions and from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash floods or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human life and damage to crops and.property with devastating societal impacts. Historically, air-pollution and monsoons research are treated as separate problems. However recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically linked and need to be studied jointly. Fundamentally, aerosols can affect precipitation through radiative effects cif suspended particles in the atmosphere (direct effect) and/or by interfering and changing: the cloud and precipitation formation processes (indirect effect). Based on their optical properties, aerosols can be classified into two types.: those that absorb solar radiation, and those that do not. Both types of aerosols scatter sunlight and reduce the amount of solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface, causing it to cool. The surface cooling increases atmospheric stability and reduces convection potential, Absorbing aerosols, however, in addition to cooling the surface, can heat the atmosphere. The heating of the atmosphere may reduce the amount of low clouds by increased evaporation in cloud drops. The heating, however, may induce rising motion, enhance low-level moisture, convergence and, hence, increases rainfall, The latent heating from enhanced rainfall may excite feedback processes in the large-scale circulation, further amplify.the initial response to aerosol heating and producing more rain. Additionally, aerosols can increase the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), increase cloud amount and decrease coalescence and collision rates, leading to reduced precipitation. However, in the presence of increasing moist and warm air, the reduced coalescence/collision may lead to supercooled drops at higher altitudes where ice precipitation falls and melts. The latent heat release from freezing aloft and melting below implies greater upward heat transport in polluted clouds and invigorate deep convection. In this way, aerosols may lead to increased local convection. Hence, depending on the ambient large-scale conditions and dynamical feedback processes, aerosols' effect on precipitation can be positive, negative or mixed. In the Asian monsoon and adjacent regions, the aerosol forcing and responses of the water cycle are even more complex, Both direct and indirect effects may take place locally and simultaneously, interacting with each other. in addition to local effects, monsoon rainfall may be affected by aerosols transported from other regions and intensified through large-scale circulation and moisture feedback. Thus, dust transported by the large-scale circulation from the adjacent deserts to northern India may affect rainfall over the Bay of Bengal; sulphate and black carbon front industrial pollution in central, southern China and northern India may affect the rainfall regime over the Korean peninsula and Japan; organic and black carbon front biomass burning from Indo-China may modulate the pre-monsoon rainfall regime over southern China and coastal regions, contributing to variability in differential heating and cooling of the atmosphere and to the land-sea thermal contrast. During the pre-monsoon season and monsoon breaks, it has been suggested that radiative forcing by absorbing aerosols have nearly the same order of magnitude as the forcing due to latent heating from convection and surface fluxes. The magnitude of the total aerosol radiative cooling due to sulphates and soot is of the order of 20-40 W/m2 over the Asian monsoon land region in the pre-monsoon season, compared to about 1-2 W/m2 for global warng. However, the combined forcing at the surface and in the atmosphere, including all species. if aerosols, and details of aerosol mixing, and impacts on the energy and water cycles in the monsoon land regions, are not well known.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Potential impact of aerosols on convective clouds revealed by Himawari-8 observations over different terrain types in eastern China

Convective clouds are common and play a major role in Earth's water cycle and energy balance; they may even develop into storms and cause severe rainfall events. To understand the convective cloud development process, this study investigates the impact of aerosols on convective clouds by considering the influence of both topography and diurnal variation in radiation. By combining texture analysis, clustering, and thresholding methods, we identify all convective clouds in two warm seasons (May–September, 2016/17) in eastern China based on Himawari-8 Level 1 data. Having large diurnally resolved cloud data together with surface meteorological and environmental measurements, we investigate convective cloud properties and their variation, stratified by elevation and diurnal change. We then analyze the potential impact of aerosol on convective clouds under different meteorological conditions and topographies. In general, convective clouds tend to occur preferentially under polluted conditions in the morning, which reverses in the afternoon. Convective cloud fraction first increases then decreases with aerosol loading, which may contribute to this phenomenon. Topography and diurnal meteorological variations may affect the strength of aerosol microphysical and radiative effects. Updraft is always stronger along the windward slopes of mountains and plateaus, especially in northern China. The prevailing southerly wind near the foothills of mountains and plateaus is likely to contribute to this windward strengthening of updraft and to bring more pollutant into the mountains, thereby strengthening the microphysical effect, invigorating convective clouds. By comparison, over plain, aerosols decrease surface heating and suppress convection by blocking solar radiation reaching the surface.

clouds↗

Potential impact of aerosols on convective clouds revealed by Himawari-8 observations over different terrain types in Eastern China

Convective clouds are common and play a major role in Earth’s water cycle and energy balance; they may even develop into storms and cause severe rainfall events. To understand the convective cloud development process, this study investigates the impact of aerosols on convective clouds by considering the influence of both topography and diurnal variation of radiation. By combining texture analysis, clustering and thresholding methods, we identify all convective clouds in two warm seasons (May-September, 2016-2017) in eastern China based on Himawari-8 Level 1 data. Having a large diurnally resolved cloud data together with surface meteorological and environmental measurements, we investigate convective cloud properties and their variation, stratified by elevation and diurnal change. We then analyze the potential impact of aerosol on convective clouds under different meteorological conditions and topographies. In general, convective clouds tend to occur preferentially under polluted conditions in the morning, which reverses in the afternoon. Convective cloud fraction first increases then decreases with aerosol loading, which may contribute to this phenomenon. Topography and diurnal meteorological variations may affect the strength of aerosol microphysical and radiative effects. Updraft is always stronger along the windward slopes of mountains and plateaus, especially in northern China. The prevailing southerly wind near the foothills of mountains and plateaus is likely to contribute to this windward strengthening of updraft and to bring more pollutant into the mountains, thereby strengthening the microphysical effect, invigorating convective clouds. By comparison, over plain, aerosols decrease surface heating and suppresses convection by blocking solar radiation reaching the surface.

Tianmeng Chen↗

Weekly Cycle of Lightning and Associated Patterns of Rainfall, Cloud, and Aerosols over Korea and Adjacent Oceans during Boreal Summer

In this study, we analyze the weekly cycle of lightning over Korea and adjacent oceans and associated variations of aerosols, clouds, precipitation, and atmospheric circulations, using aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the NASA Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), cloud properties from MODIS, precipitation and storm height from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, and lightning data from the Korean Lightning Detection Network (KLDN) during 9-year from 2002 to 2010. Lightning data was divided into three approximately equal areas, land area of Korea, and two adjacent oceans, Yellow Sea and South Sea. Preliminary results show that the number of lightning increases during the middle of the week over Yellow Sea. AOD data also shows moderately significant midweek increase at about the same time as lightning peaks. These results are consistent with the recent studies showing the invigoration of storms with more ice hydrometeors by aerosols, and subsequently wash out of aerosols by rainfall. Frequency of lightning strokes tend to peak at weekend in land area and over South Sea, indicating local weekly anomalous circulation between land and adjacent ocean. On the other hand, lightning frequency over Yellow Sea appears to have very strong weekly cycle with midweek peak on around Wednesday. It is speculated that the midweek peak of lightning over Yellow Sea was related with aerosol transport from adjacent land area. AOD data also suggests midweek peak over Yellow Sea, however, the weekly cycle of AOD was not statistically significant. Changes in weekly cycle of lightning from pre-monsoon to monsoon season, as well as associated clouds and circulation patterns are also discussed.

Kim, Ji-In↗

Smoke Invigoration Versus Inhibition of Clouds over the Amazon

The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds is one of the most important and least understood aspects of human-induced climate change. Small changes in the amount of cloud coverage can produce a climate forcing equivalent in magnitude and opposite in sign to that caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and changes in cloud height can shift the effect of clouds from cooling to warming. Focusing on the Amazon, we show a smooth transition between two opposing effects of aerosols on clouds: the microphysical and the radiative. We show how a feedback between the optical properties of aerosols and the cloud fraction can modify the aerosol forcing, changing the total radiative energy and redistributing it over the atmospheric column.

Koren, Ilan↗

Satellite-Model-Ground-based Inter-Comparisons (WG-3)

AERO-SAT is an international consortium of experts on aerosol remote sensing from ground and space. This initiative was established in 2013 (1) to accelerate the exchange of ideas and concepts and (2) to elevate the capabilities of satellite sensorsretrieval (aerosol) products, which are needed to constrain aerosol processing in and assist in evaluations of global modeling. The main goal of the meeting is to substantiate and invigorate the five AEROSAT working groups. On each of those five topics dedicated working groups are building up and will report on their initial activities followed by further related presentations and ample time for discussions. Organizers of the meeting held September 27-28, 2014 would like to post the presentations to a website.

satellite remote sensing↗

Weekly Cycle of Lightning: Evidence of Storm Invigoration by Pollution

We have examined summertime 1998 2009 U.S. lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) to look for weekly cycles in lightning activity. As was found by Bell et al. (2008) for rain over the southeast U.S., there is a significant weekly cycle in afternoon lightning activity that peaks in the middle of the week there. The weekly cycle appears to be reduced over population centers. Lightning activity peaks on weekends over waters near the SE U.S. The statistical significance of weekly cycles over the western half of the country is generally small. We found no evidence of a weekly cycle of synoptic-scale forcing that might explain these patterns. The lightning behavior is entirely consistent with the explanation suggested by Bell et al. (2008) for the cycles in rainfall and other atmospheric data from the SE U.S., that aerosols can cause storms to intensify in humid, convectively unstable environments.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

Midweek Increase in U.S. Summer Rain and Storm Heights, Suggests Air Pollution Invigorates Rainstorms

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data show a significant midweek increase in summertime rainfall over the southeast U.S., due to afternoon intensification. TRMM radar data show a significant midweek increase in rain area and in the heights reached by afternoon storms. Weekly variations in model-reanalysis wind patterns over the region and in rain-gauge data are consistent with the satellite data. A midweek decrease of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic is also seen. EPA measurements of particulate concentrations show a midweek peak over much of the U.S. These observations are consistent with the theory that anthropogenic air pollution suppresses cloud-drop coalescence and early rainout during the growth of thunderstorms over land, allowing more water to be carried above the 0 C isotherm, where freezing yields additional latent heat, invigorating the storms--most dramatically evidenced by the shift in the midweek distribution of afternoon-storm heights--and producing large ice hydrometeors. The enhanced convection induces regional convergence, uplifting and an overall increase of rainfall. Compensating downward air motion suppresses convection over the adjacent ocean areas. Pre-TRMM-era data suggest that the weekly cycle only became strong enough to be detectable beginning in the 1980's. Rain-gauge data also suggest that a weekly cycle may have been detectable in the 1940's, but with peak rainfall on Sunday or Monday, possibly explained by the difference in composition of aerosol pollution at that time. This "weekend effect" may thus offer climate researchers an opportunity to study the regional climate-scale impact of aerosols on storm development and monsoon-like circulation.

Bell, Thomas L.↗