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At least 19 records

Large Contribution of Meteorological Factors to Inter-Decadal Changes in Regional Aerosol Optical Depth

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has become a crucial metric for assessing global climate change. Although global and regional AOD trends have been studied extensively, it remains unclear what factors are driving the inter-decadal variations in regional AOD and how to quantify the relative contribution of each dominant factor. This study used a long-term (1980–2016) aerosol dataset from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, along with two satellite-based AOD datasets (MODIS/Terra and MISR) from 2001 to 2016, to investigate the long-term trends in global and regional aerosol loading. Statistical models based on emission factors and meteorological parameters were developed to identify the main factors driving the inter-decadal changes of regional AOD and to quantify their contribution. Evaluation of the MERRA-2 AOD with the ground-based measurements of AERONET indicated significant spatial agreement on the global scale (r= 0.85, root-mean-square error = 0.12, mean fractional error = 38.7 %, fractional gross error = 9.86 % and index of agreement = 0.94). However, when AOD observations from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) were employed for independent verification, the results showed that MERRA-2 AODs generally underestimated CARSNET AODs in China (relative mean bias = 0.72 and fractional gross error =−34.3 %). In general, MERRA-2 was able to quantitatively reproduce the annual and seasonal AOD trends on both regional and global scales, as observed by MODIS/Terra, although some differences were found when compared to MISR. Over the 37-year period in this study, significant decreasing trends were observed over Europe and the eastern United States. In contrast, eastern China and southern Asia showed AOD increases, but the increasing trend of the former reversed sharply in the most recent decade. The statistical analyses suggested that the meteorological parameters explained a larger proportion of the AOD variability (20.4 %–72.8 %) over almost all regions of interest (ROIs) during 1980–2014 when compared with emission factors (0 %–56 %). Further analysis also showed that SO2 was the dominant emission factor, explaining 12.7 %–32.6 % of the variation in AOD over anthropogenic-aerosol-dominant regions, while black carbon or organic carbon was the leading factor over the biomass-burning-dominant (BBD) regions, contributing 24.0 %–27.7 % of the variation. Additionally, wind speed was found to be the leading meteorological parameter, explaining 11.8 %–30.3 % of the variance over the mineral-dust-dominant regions, while ambient humidity (including soil moisture and relative humidity) was the top meteorological parameter over the BBD regions, accounting for 11.7 %–35.5 % of the variation. The results of this study indicate that the variation in meteorological parameters is a key factor in determining the inter-decadal change in regional AOD.

Huizheng Che

Observations of aerosol optical depth during the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE)

Solar radiation measurements were made with a multiwavelength airborne tracking sunphotometer during the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE). Data from June 6, and October 11, 1987 are analyzed. Atmospheric optical properties were derived from the data, including total optical depth, aerosol optical depth, aerosol size distribution, aerosol phase function, and aerosol single scattering albedo. The aerosol optical depths for June 6 exhibited a spectral dependence that peaked at short wavelengths, whereas those for October 11 decreased monotonically with wavelength and closely followed an Angstrom wavelength dependence. Also, a unimodal aerosol size distribution was found for the June 6 data, while the October 11 data exhibited a power law size distribution. It is suggested that these differences indicate the need for simultaneous sunphotometer measurements and remotely sensed data.

Spanner, Michael A.

Influence of Observed Diurnal Cycles of Aerosol Optical Depth on Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect

The diurnal variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) can be significant, depending on location and dominant aerosol type. However, these diurnal cycles have rarely been taken into account in measurement-based estimates of aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) or aerosol direct radiative effect (ADRE). The objective of our study was to estimate the influence of diurnal aerosol variability at the top of the atmosphere ADRE estimates. By including all the possible AERONET sites, we wanted to assess the influence on global ADRE estimates. While focusing also in more detail on some selected sites of strongest impact, our goal was to also see the possible impact regionally.We calculated ADRE with different assumptions about the daily AOD variability: taking the observed daily AOD cycle into account and assuming diurnally constant AOD. Moreover, we estimated the corresponding differences in ADREs, if the single AOD value for the daily mean was taken from the the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra or Aqua overpass times, instead of accounting for the true observed daily variability. The mean impact of diurnal AOD variability on 24 h ADRE estimates, averaged over all AERONET sites, was rather small and it was relatively small even for the cases when AOD was chosen to correspond to the Terra or Aqua overpass time. This was true on average over all AERONET sites, while clearly there can be much stronger impact in individual sites. Examples of some selected sites demonstrated that the strongest observed AOD variability (the strongest morning afternoon contrast) does not typically result in a significant impact on 24 h ADRE. In those cases, the morning and afternoon AOD patterns are opposite and thus the impact on 24 h ADRE, when integrated over all solar zenith angles, is reduced. The most significant effect on daily ADRE was induced by AOD cycles with either maximum or minimum AOD close to local noon. In these cases, the impact on 24 h ADRE was typically around 0.1-0.2W/sq m (both positive and negative) in absolute values, 5-10% in relative ones.

optical depth

Tracking Smoke from a Prescribed Fire and its Impacts on Local Air Quality using Temporally Resolved GOES-16 ABI Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) was used to track a smoke plume from a prescribed fire in northeastern Virginia on 8 March 2020. Weather and atmospheric conditions created a favorable environment to transport the plume through the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland, metro areas in the afternoon and concentrate smoke near the surface, degrading air quality for several hours. ABI AOD with 5-min temporal resolution and 2-km spatial resolution definitively identified the timing and geographic extent of the plume during daylight hours. Comparison to AERONET AOD indicates that ABI AOD captured the relative change in AOD due to passage of the smoke, with a mean absolute error of 0.047. Ground-based measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) confirm deteriorations in air quality coincident with the progression of the smoke. Ceilometer aerosol backscatter profiles verify plume transport timing and indicate that smoke aerosols were well mixed in a shallow boundary layer. This event illustrates the advantages of using multiple datasets to analyze the impacts of aerosols on ambient air quality. Given the quickly evolving nature of the event over several hours, ABI AOD provided information for the public and decision-makers that was not available from any other source, including polar-orbiting satellite sensors. This study suggests that PM2.5 concentrations estimated from ABI AOD can be used to fill in the gaps in nationwide regulatory PM2.5 monitor networks and may be a valuable addition to EPA’s PM2.5 NowCast of current air quality conditions.

satellite observations

Validation of MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth Retrieval Over Land

Aerosol optical depths are derived operationally for the first time over land in the visible wavelengths by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) onboard the EOSTerra spacecraft. More than 300 Sun photometer data points from more than 30 AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) sites globally were used in validating the aerosol optical depths obtained during July - September 2000. Excellent agreement is found with retrieval errors within (Delta)tau=+/- 0.05 +/- 0.20 tau, as predicted, over (partially) vegetated surfaces, consistent with pre-launch theoretical analysis and aircraft field experiments. In coastal and semi-arid regions larger errors are caused predominantly by the uncertainty in evaluating the surface reflectance. The excellent fit was achieved despite the ongoing improvements in instrument characterization and calibration. This results show that MODIS-derived aerosol optical depths can be used quantitatively in many applications with cautions for residual clouds, snow/ice, and water contamination.

Chu, D. A.

Aeronet-based Microphysical and Optical Properties of Smoke-dominated Aerosol near Source Regions and Transported over Oceans, and Implications for Satellite Retrievals of Aerosol Optical Depth

Smoke aerosols from biomass burning are an important component of the global aerosol cycle. Analysis of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) retrievals of size distribution and refractive index reveals variety between biomass burning aerosols in different global source regions, in terms of aerosol particle size and single scatter albedo (SSA). Case studies of smoke transported to coastal/island AERONET sites also mostly lie within the range of variability at near-source sites. Two broad families of aerosol properties are found, corresponding to sites dominated by boreal forest burning (larger, broader fine mode, with midvisible SSA 0.95), and those influenced by grass, shrub, or crop burning with additional forest contributions (smaller, narrower particles with SSA 0.88-0.9 in the midvisible). The strongest absorption is seen in southern African savanna at Mongu (Zambia), with average SSA 0.85 in the midvisible. These can serve as candidate sets of aerosol microphysicaloptical properties for use in satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithms. The models presently adopted by these algorithms over ocean are often insufficiently absorbing to represent these biomass burning aerosols. A corollary of this is an underestimate of AOD in smoke outflow regions, which has important consequences for applications of these satellite datasets.

AERONET

BOREAS Aerosol Optical Depth Measurements and Atmospheric Correction

Aerosol optical depth measurements were conducted during all three Intensive Field Campaigns of BOREAS in 1994 by both groundbased and airborne tracking sun photometers. These measurements documented the highly variable aerosol loadings in the BOREAS study areas: very clear days with optical depths at 525 nm of 0.05 alternated with very hazy days (due to smoke from extensive western forest fires) with optical depths greater than 0.5. The airborne sun photometer showed the aerosol layer extended up to 3.5-4 km. Remote sensing missions were largely constrained to clear days, but some occurred under less optimum conditions. The spectral aerosol optical depths were used to derive aerosol size distributions and other aerosol optical properties useful for atmospheric correction of satellite and aircraft remote sensing imagery. Aerosol scattering phase functions and aerosol single scattering albedoes were calculated from Mie scattering theory using reasonable assumptions for the index of refraction for the aersols. Our atmospheric correction procedure Imagecor used the aerosol optical properties to derive surface radiances at each pixel from Landsat Thematic Mapper data of the southern study area on July 25, 1994. Similar efforts under FIFE showed close agreement between atmospherically corrected surface radiances and helicopter measurements of surface radiance of the same sites. Recently we incorporated calculations of the total downwelling irradiance from the 6S radiative transfer program (which vary little over the entire Landsat scene) to derive surface reflectances from the atmospherically corrected surface radiances. Tests using this procedure with both FIFE and HAPEX data sets show good agreement with ground-measured surface reflectances. Surface reflectances derived from the atmospherically corrected radiances of the July 25th Landsat scene will be compared to surface measurements made in BOREAS'southern study area.

Wrigley, R. C.

3D Radiative Aspects of the Increased Aerosol Optical Depth Near Clouds

To characterize aerosol-cloud interactions it is important to correctly retrieve aerosol optical depth in the vicinity of clouds. It is well reported in the literature that aerosol optical depth increases with cloud cover. Part of the increase comes from real physics as humidification; another part, however, comes from 3D cloud effects in the remote sensing retrievals. In many cases it is hard to say whether the retrieved increased values of aerosol optical depth are remote sensing artifacts or real. In the presentation, we will discuss how the 3D cloud affects can be mitigated. We will demonstrate a simple model that can assess the enhanced illumination of cloud-free columns in the vicinity of clouds. This model is based on the assumption that the enhancement in the cloud-free column radiance comes from the enhanced Rayleigh scattering due to presence of surrounding clouds. A stochastic cloud model of broken cloudiness is used to simulate the upward flux.

Marshak, Alexander

Aerosol optical depth retrievals over the Konza Prairie

The aerosol optical depth over the Konza Prairie, near Manhattan, Kansas, was recorded at various locations by five separate teams. These measurements were made in support of the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) and used to correct imagery from a variety of satellite and aircraft sensors for the effects of atmospheric scattering and absorption. The results from one instrument are reported here for 26 days in 1987 and for 7 in 1989. Daily averages span a range of 0.05 to 0.28 in the midvisible wavelengths. In addition, diurnal variations are noted in which the afternoon optical depths are greater than those of the morning by as much as 0.07. A comparison between instruments and processing techniques used to determine these aerosol optical depths is provided. The first comparisons are made using summer 1987 data. Differences of as much as 0.05 (midvisible) are observed. Although these data allow reasonable surface reflectance retrievals, they do not agree to within the performance limits typically associated with these types of instruments. With an accuracy goal of 0.02 a preseason calibration/comparison experiment was conducted at a mountain site prior to the final field campaign in 1989. Good calibration data were obtained, and good agreement (0.01, midvisible) was observed in the retrieved optical depth acquired over the Konza. By comparing data from the surface instruments at different locations, spatial inhomogeneities are determined. Then, data from the airborne tracking sunphotometer allow one to determine variations as a function of altitude. Finally, a technique is proposed for using the in situ data to establish an instrument calibration.

Bruegge, Carol J.

The Use of Satellite-Measured Aerosol Optical Depth to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions Source Strength in a Global Model GOCART

Small particles in the atmosphere, called "atmospheric aerosol" have a direct effect on Earth climate through scattering and absorbing sunlight, and also an indirect effect by changing the properties of clouds, as they interact with solar radiation as well. Aerosol typically stays in the atmosphere for several days, and can be transported long distances, affecting air quality, visibility, and human health not only near the source, but also far downwind. Smoke from vegetation fires is one of the main sources of atmospheric aerosol; other sources include anthropogenic pollution, dust, and sea salt. Chemistry transport models (CTMs) are among the major tools for studying the atmospheric and climate effects of aerosol. Due to the considerable variation of aerosol concentrations and properties on many temporal and spatial scales, and the complexity of the processes involved, the uncertainties in aerosol effects on climate are large, as is featured in the latest report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Reducing this uncertainty in the models is very important both for predicting future climate scenarios and for regional air quality forecasting and mitigation. During vegetation fires, also called biomass burning (BB) events, complex mixture of gases and particles is emitted. The amount of BB emissions is usually estimated taking into account the intensity and size of the fire and the properties of burning vegetation. These estimates are input into CTMs to simulate BB aerosol. Unfortunately, due to large variability of fire and vegetation properties, the quantity of BB emissions is very difficult to estimate and BB emission inventories provide numbers that can differ by up to the order of magnitude in some regions. Larger uncertainties in data input make uncertainties in model output larger as well. A powerful way to narrow the range of possible model estimates is to compare model output to observations. We use satellite observations of aerosol properties, specifically aerosol optical depth, which is directly proportional to the amount of aerosol in the atmosphere, and compare it to the model output. Assuming the model represents aerosol transport and particle properties correctly, the amount of BB emissions determines the simulated aerosol optical depth. In this study, we explore the regional performance of 13 commonly used emission estimates. These are each input to global Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. We then evaluate how well each emission estimate reproduces the smoke aerosol optical depth measured by the MODIS instrument. We compared GOCART-simulate aerosol optical depth with that measured from the satellite for 124 fire cases around the world during 2006 and 2007. We summarize the regional performance of each emission inventory and discuss reasons for their differences by considering the assumptions made during their development. We also show that because stronger wind disperses smoke plumes more readily, in cases with stronger wind, a larger increase in emission amount is needed to increase aerosol optical depth. In quiet, low-wind-speed environments, BB emissions produce a more significant increase in aerosol optical depth, other things being equal. Using the region-specific, quantitative relationships derived in our paper, together with the wind speed obtained from another source for a given fire case, we can constrain the amount of emission required in the model to reproduce the observations. The results of this paper are useful to the developers of BB emission inventories, as they show the strengths and weaknesses of individual emission inventories in different regions of the globe, and also for modelers who use these inventories and wish to improve their model results.

Petrenko, Mariya

Comparison of Coincident Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Aerosol Optical Depths over Land and Ocean Scenes Containing Aerosol Robotic Network Sites

The Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched on 18 December 1999 aboard the Terra spacecraft, are making global observations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiances. Aerosol optical depths and particle properties are independently retrieved from these radiances using methodologies and algorithms that make use of the instruments corresponding designs. This paper compares instantaneous optical depths retrieved from simultaneous and collocated radiances measured by the two instruments at locations containing sites within the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). A set of 318 MISR and MODIS images, obtained during the months of March, June, and September 2002 at 62 AERONET sites, were used in this study. The results show that over land, MODIS aerosol optical depths at 470 and 660 nm are larger than those retrieved from MISR by about 35% and 10% on average, respectively, when all land surface types are included in the regression. The differences decrease when coastal and desert areas are excluded. For optical depths retrieved over ocean, MISR is on average about 0.1 and 0.05 higher than MODIS in the 470 and 660 nm bands, respectively. Part of this difference is due to radiometric calibration and is reduced to about 0.01 and 0.03 when recently derived band-to-band adjustments in the MISR radiometry are incorporated. Comparisons with AERONET data show similar patterns.

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MOD

Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850-1990

A global stratospheric aerosol database employed for climate simulations is described. For the period 1883-1990, aerosol optical depths are estimated from optical extinction data, whose quality increases with time over that period. For the period 1850-1882, aerosol optical depths are more crudely estimated from volcanological evidence for the volume of ejecta from major known volcanoes. The data set is available over Internet.

Sato, Makiko

Advancements in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 database – automated near-real-time quality control algorithm with improved cloud screening for Sun photometer aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements

The Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) has provided highly accurate, ground-truth measurements of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) using Cimel Electronique Sun–sky radiometers for more than 25 years. In Version 2 (V2) of the AERONET database, the near-real-time AOD was semiautomatically quality controlled utilizing mainly cloud-screening methodology, while additional AOD data contaminated by clouds or affected by instrument anomalies were removed manually before attaining quality-assured status (Level 2.0). The large growth in the number of AERONET sites over the past 25 years resulted in significant burden to the manual quality control of millions of measurements in a consistent manner. The AERONET Version 3 (V3) algorithm provides fully automatic cloud screening and instrument anomaly quality controls. All of these new algorithm updates apply to near-real-time data as well as post-field-deployment processed data, and AERONET reprocessed the database in 2018. A full algorithm redevelopment provided the opportunity to improve data inputs and corrections such as unique filter-specific temperature characterizations for all visible and near-infrared wavelengths, updated gaseous and water vapor absorption coefficients, and ancillary data sets. The Level 2.0 AOD quality-assured data set is now available within a month after post-field calibration, reducing the lag time from up to several months. Near-real-time estimated uncertainty is determined using data qualified as V3 Level 2.0 AOD and considering the difference between the AOD computed with the pre-field calibration and AOD computed with pre-field and post-field calibration. This assessment provides a near-real-time uncertainty estimate for which average differences of AOD suggest a +0.02 bias and one sigma uncertainty of 0.02, spectrally, but the bias and uncertainty can be significantly larger for specific instrument deployments. Long-term monthly averages analyzed for the entire V3 and V2 databases produced average differences (V3–V2) of +0.002 with a ±0.02 SD (standard deviation), yet monthly averages calculated using time-matched observations in both databases were analyzed to compute an average difference of −0.002 with a ±0.004 SD. The high statistical agreement in multiyear monthly averaged AOD validates the advanced automatic data quality control algorithms and suggests that migrating research to the V3 database will corroborate most V2 research conclusions and likely lead to more accurate results in some cases.

David M. Giles

Assessment of Error in Aerosol Optical Depth Measured by AERONET Due to Aerosol Forward Scattering

We present an analysis of the effect of aerosol forward scattering on the accuracy of aerosol optical depth (AOD) measured by CIMEL Sun photometers. The effect is quantified in terms of AOD and solar zenith angle using radiative transfer modeling. The analysis is based on aerosol size distributions derived from multi-year climatologies of AERONET aerosol retrievals. The study shows that the modeled error is lower than AOD calibration uncertainty (0.01) for the vast majority of AERONET level 2 observations, ~99.53%. Only ~0.47% of the AERONET database corresponding mostly to dust aerosol with high AOD and low solar elevations has larger biases. We also show that observations with extreme reductions in direct solar irradiance do not contribute to level 2 AOD due to low Sun photometer digital counts below a quality control cutoff threshold.

AERONET

Stratospheric aerosol optical depth observed by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment. II - Decay of the El Chichon and Ruiz volcanic perturbations

The decay of the El Chichon perturbation to the optical depth of stratospheric aerosols at 1.02 micron, 0.525 micron, and 0.453 micron is calculated from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) data set for the period December 1984 to December 1988. It is found that the perturbed optical depths at middle and higher latitudes of both hemispheres exhibited an exponential decay superimposed by a seasonal oscillation with a maximum and a minimum occurring in local winter and local summer, respectively. Microphysical processes and variation of the tropopause height alone cannot explain this seasonal change of optical depth. The magnitudes of the exponential component at higher latitudes were, in general, larger than those at lower latitudes. For optical depths in tropical regions, the seasonal oscillations were small and were disturbed by the eruption of Nevado del Ruiz on November 13, 1985. The increase in the ratio of optical depth at 0.525 micron to that at 1.02 micron from about 2.0 at the beginning of 1985 to about 3.5 at the end of 1988 indicates the average size of aerosol particles in the stratosphere is diminishing since the eruption of El Chichon. The 1/e folding time for El Chichon decay derived from the SAGE II data set is in reasonably good agreement with those derived by other methods.

Yue, G. K.

Improvement of Aerosol Optical Depth Retrieval over Hong Kong from a Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Using Critical Reflectance with Background Optical Depth Correction

Despite continuous efforts to retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD) using a conventional 5-channelmeteorological imager in geostationary orbit, the accuracy in urban areas has been poorer than other areas primarily due to complex urban surface properties and mixed aerosol types from different emission sources. The two largest error sources in aerosol retrieval have been aerosol type selection and surface reflectance. In selecting the aerosol type from a single visible channel, the season-dependent aerosol optical properties were adopted from longterm measurements of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun-photometers. With the aerosol optical properties obtained fromthe AERONET inversion data, look-up tableswere calculated by using a radiative transfer code: the Second Simulation of the Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S). Surface reflectance was estimated using the clear sky composite method, awidely used technique for geostationary retrievals. Over East Asia, the AOD retrieved from the Meteorological Imager showed good agreement, although the values were affected by cloud contamination errors. However, the conventional retrieval of the AOD over Hong Kong was largely underestimated due to the lack of information on the aerosol type and surface properties. To detect spatial and temporal variation of aerosol type over the area, the critical reflectance method, a technique to retrieve single scattering albedo (SSA), was applied. Additionally, the background aerosol effect was corrected to improve the accuracy of the surface reflectance over Hong Kong. The AOD retrieved froma modified algorithmwas compared to the collocated data measured by AERONET in Hong Kong. The comparison showed that the new aerosol type selection using the critical reflectance and the corrected surface reflectance significantly improved the accuracy of AODs in Hong Kong areas,with a correlation coefficient increase from0.65 to 0.76 and a regression line change from τMI [basic algorithm] = 0.41τAERONET + 0.16 to τMI [new algorithm] = 0.70τAERONET + 0.01.

aerosols

Effect of Wind Speed on Aerosol Optical Depth over Remote Oceans, Based on Data from the Maritime Aerosol Network

The Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) has been collecting data over the oceans since November 2006. The MAN archive provides a valuable resource for aerosol studies in maritime environments. In the current paper we investigate correlations between ship-borne aerosol optical depth (AOD) and near-surface wind speed, either measured (onboard or from satellite) or modeled (NCEP). According to our analysis, wind speed influences columnar aerosol optical depth, although the slope of the linear regression between AOD and wind speed is not steep (approx. 0.004 - 0.005), even for strong winds over 10m/s. The relationships show significant scatter (correlation coefficients typically in the range 0.3 - 0.5); the majority of this scatter can be explained by the uncertainty on the input data. The various wind speed sources considered yield similar patterns. Results are in good agreement with the majority of previously published relationships between surface wind speed and ship-based or satellite-based AOD measurements. The basic relationships are similar for all the wind speed sources considered; however, the gradient of the relationship varies by around a factor of two depending on the wind data used

Smirnov, A.

A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

Air pollution