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At least 19 records

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

Numerical Stability and Control Analysis Towards Falling-Leaf Prediction Capabilities of Splitflow for Two Generic High-Performance Aircraft Models

Aerodynamic analysis are performed using the Lockheed-Martin Tactical Aircraft Systems (LMTAS) Splitflow computational fluid dynamics code to investigate the computational prediction capabilities for vortex-dominated flow fields of two different tailless aircraft models at large angles of attack and sideslip. These computations are performed with the goal of providing useful stability and control data to designers of high performance aircraft. Appropriate metrics for accuracy, time, and ease of use are determined in consultations with both the LMTAS Advanced Design and Stability and Control groups. Results are obtained and compared to wind-tunnel data for all six components of forces and moments. Moment data is combined to form a "falling leaf" stability analysis. Finally, a handful of viscous simulations were also performed to further investigate nonlinearities and possible viscous effects in the differences between the accumulated inviscid computational and experimental data.

Charlton, Eric F.↗

Machine Learning Approach for Aircraft Performance Model Parameter Estimation for Trajectory Prediction Applications

Inaccurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools (DST) is a major concern in air traffic management (ATM). Aircraft trajectory prediction tools rely on a simplified point-mass aircraft performance model (APM) to make their predictions. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the APM’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to DSTs. Current ATM research focuses on improving the estimate of some APM parameters by freezing all other coefficients. This simplified approach introduces unwanted sources of bias and negatively impacts the accuracy of the performance model. In this paper, we apply machine learning (ML) techniques for the simultaneous prediction of three key APM parameters (two drag coefficients and the initial aircraft weight). To accomplish this, we employ an ordinary differential equation (ODE) fitting approach to generate optimized APM parameter labels customized to each individual flight record. Subsequently, we train ML models to capture the relationship between the historical data and the optimized APM parameters. Two different ML model solutions are applied and APM coefficients are predicted for unseen flights. The results indicate that the ML models are able to capture the relationship between APM parameters and flight-related features with good accuracy.

trajectory prediction, machine learning, aircraft ↗

GASP- General Aviation Synthesis Program. Volume 6: Performance

Aircraft performance modeling requires consideration of propulsion, aerodynamics, and weight characteristics. Eleven subroutines used in modeling aircraft performance are presented and their interactions considered. Manuals for performance model users and programmers are included.

Hague, D.↗

Community Noise Assessment of Urban Air Mobility Vehicle Operations using the FAA Aviation Environmental Design Tool

In contrast to most commercial air traffic today, vehicles serving the urban air mobility (UAM) market are anticipated to operate in communities close to the public at large. The approved model for assessing environmental impact of air traffic actions in the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration’s Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), does not support analysis of such operations due to a combined lack of a UAM aircraft performance model and aircraft noise data. This paper discusses the initial development of a method to assess the acoustic impact of UAM fleet operations on the community using AEDT and demonstrates its use for representative UAM operations. In particular, methods were developed using fixed-point flight profiles and user-supplied noise data in a manner that avoids unwanted behavior in AEDT. A set of 32 routes in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area were assessed for single and multiple (fleet) operations for two concept vehicles.

urban air mobility↗

Community Noise Assessment of Urban Air Mobility Vehicle Operations using the FAA Aviation Environmental Design Tool

In contrast to most commercial air traffic today, vehicles serving the urban air mobility (UAM) market are anticipated to operate in communities close to the public at large. The approved model for assessing environmental impact of air traffic actions in the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration’s Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), does not support analysis of such operations due to a combined lack of a UAM aircraft performance model and aircraft noise data. This paper discusses the initial development of a method to assess the acoustic impact of UAM fleet operations on the community using AEDT and demonstrates its use for representative UAM operations. In particular, methods were developed using fixed-point flight profiles and user-supplied noise data in a manner that avoids unwanted behavior in AEDT. A set of 32 routes in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area were assessed for single and multiple (fleet) operations for two concept vehicles.

urban air mobility↗

Second-Generation UAM Community Noise Assessment Using the FAA Aviation Environmental Design Tool

Vehicles serving the urban air mobility (UAM) market are anticipated to operate in communities close to the public at large. The approved model for assessing environmental impact of air traffic actions in the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration’s Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), does not support analysis of such operations due to a combined lack of a UAM aircraft performance model and aircraft noise data. This paper discusses second-generation developments to assess the acoustic impact of UAM fleet operations on the community using AEDT and demonstrates its use for representative UAM operations. In particular, methods were developed to add broadband self noise into computed noise-power-distance data, and vertiport-centric operations were evaluated for two concept vehicles.

urban air mobility↗

Aircraft Anomaly Detection Using Performance Models Trained on Fleet Data

This paper describes an application of data mining technology called Distributed Fleet Monitoring (DFM) to Flight Operational Quality Assurance (FOQA) data collected from a fleet of commercial aircraft. DFM transforms the data into aircraft performance models, flight-to-flight trends, and individual flight anomalies by fitting a multi-level regression model to the data. The model represents aircraft flight performance and takes into account fixed effects: flight-to-flight and vehicle-to-vehicle variability. The regression parameters include aerodynamic coefficients and other aircraft performance parameters that are usually identified by aircraft manufacturers in flight tests. Using DFM, the multi-terabyte FOQA data set with half-million flights was processed in a few hours. The anomalies found include wrong values of competed variables, (e.g., aircraft weight), sensor failures and baises, failures, biases, and trends in flight actuators. These anomalies were missed by the existing airline monitoring of FOQA data exceedances.

Gorinevsky, Dimitry↗

Study of materials performance model for aircraft interiors

A demonstration version of an aircraft interior materials computer data library was developed and contains information on selected materials applicable to aircraft seats and wall panels, including materials for the following: panel face sheets, bond plies, honeycomb, foam, decorative film systems, seat cushions, adhesives, cushion reinforcements, fire blocking layers, slipcovers, decorative fabrics and thermoplastic parts. The information obtained for each material pertains to the material's performance in a fire scenario, selected material properties and several measures of processability.

Leary, K.↗

An ODE-Fitting Approach to Estimate Critical Aircraft Performance Parameters for Trajectory Prediction

Ground-based decision support tools (DST) in air traffic management (ATM) typically perform trajectory prediction based on aircraft performance model (APM) parameters, but some or all of these parameters might not be readily available. In particular, the three critical parameters required for trajectory prediction are the thrust setting, drag coefficients, and takeoff weight of the aircraft. Unfortunately, these parameters are coupled and appear together in physics-based kinetic models. Past approaches utilize data from a specific phase of flight (climb, level flight or descent), where one or more of the parameters are assumed to be known and estimate the remaining unknown parameters. This approach introduces bias/errors and also does not extend to scenarios where all of the above parameters are not known with sufficient accuracy. This paper is the first of its kind to propose a generalized framework for simultaneous estimation of all three critical APM parameters (thrust, drag, and mass). The proposed approach utilizes data from both the climb and descent phases and fits the ordinary differential equation for altitude in each phase using historical trajectory data available from radar tracks or ADS-B. The approach yields a set of optimized APM parameters that are best suited to fit each historical flight record. The methodology is applied on on sample flights from three different aircraft types, and the results demonstrate low fit error and consequently will yield a high level of prediction accuracy.

trajectory prediction, aircraft performance model,↗

An ODE-Fitting Approach to Estimate Critical Aircraft Performance Parameters for Trajectory Prediction

Ground-based decision support tools (DST) in air traffic management (ATM) typically perform trajectory prediction based on aircraft performance model (APM) parameters, but some or all of these parameters might not be readily available. In particular, the three critical parameters required for trajectory prediction are the thrust setting, drag coefficients, and takeoff weight of the aircraft. Unfortunately, these parameters are coupled and appear together in physics-based kinetic models. Past approaches utilize data from a specific phase of flight (climb, level flight or descent), where one or more of the parameters are assumed to be known and estimate the remaining unknown parameters. This approach introduces bias/errors and also does not extend to scenarios where all of the above parameters are not known with sufficient accuracy. This paper is the first of its kind to propose a generalized framework for simultaneous estimation of all three critical APM parameters (thrust, drag, and mass). The proposed approach utilizes data from both the climb and descent phases and fits the ordinary differential equation for altitude in each phase using historical trajectory data available from radar tracks or ADS-B. The approach yields a set of optimized APM parameters that are best suited to fit each historical flight record. The methodology is applied on on sample flights from three different aircraft types, and the results demonstrate low fit error and consequently will yield a high level of prediction accuracy.

trajectory prediction↗

X-57 “Maxwell” High-Lift Propeller Testing and Model Development

NASA’s X-57 “Maxwell” distributed electric propulsion flight demonstrator has a high-lift system that includes 12 fixed-pitch high-lift propellers located upstream of the wing leading edge for lift augmentation at low speeds. These high-lift propellers are not required at higher speeds and are folded conformally along the nacelles to reduce drag when not in operation. Aircraft performance models and flight simulations incorporate propeller performance to predict thrust, moments, and power consumption and propeller model accuracy is important in identifying safe operating regimes for this aircraft. Current high-lift propeller performance models have been verified and calibrated against numerous computational fluid dynamics analyses under a variety of flight conditions. We performed a series of full-scale wind tunnel tests at the NASA Langley Research Center Low Speed Aeroacoustic Wind Tunnel to further validate these models, to identify any adverse operating conditions for these propellers, and to assess the accuracy of the facility’s new Propeller Test Stand. The results indicate that the models accurately predicted performance and that the right-handed propeller showed lower torque and thrust for a given propeller speed compared to the left-handed version. Acoustic data support these measurements, showing higher tonal noise for the left versus right propeller. We suspect this is due to slight differences in the material properties between the early production (right) and more recent (left) blade sets leading to greater detwisting in the right-handed blades under load. Both propellers demonstrated very stable operation throughout the test including during deployment, stowing, and windmilling. Furthermore, high-speed imagery of the spinning propeller indicated no blade oscillations or instabilities for any test case. We also leveraged these images to analyze the effects of propeller loading on blade detwisting and tip position. Unfortunately, the thrust measurements varied significantly during the test due to cross-loading of the Propeller Test Stand load cell, though trends in the thrust data were still observable. The torque measurement, however, remained very precise for all test points and was used for performance comparisons. As a result of this test, we validated and improved the X-57 high-lift propeller performance models, obtained detailed propeller acoustic data and high-speed imagery, observed the propeller operating safely during a variety of dynamic events, and identified two potentially adverse, low-propeller-speed conditions which will be avoided during normal aircraft operation.

X-57↗

Hybrid Solid Oxide Fuel Cell/Gas Turbine Model Development for Electric Aviation

A thermodynamic model was developed and validated to analyze a high-performance solid oxide fuel cell and gas turbine (SOFC-GT) hybrid power system for electric aviation. This study used a process simulation software package (ProMax) to study the role of SOFC design and operation on the feasibility and performance of the hybrid system. Standard modules, including compressor, turbine, heat exchanger, reforming reactor, and combustor were used from the ProMax tool suite while a custom module was created to simulate the SOFC stack. The model used an SOFC test data set as an input. Additional SOFC stack performance effects, such as pressure, temperature, and utilization of air and fuel, were added from open source data. System performance predictors were SOFC specific power, fuel-to-electricity conversion efficiency, and hybrid system efficiency. Using these input data and predictors, a static thermodynamic performance model was created that can be modified for different system configurations and operating conditions. Prior to creating the final aircraft performance model, initial demonstration models were developed to validate output results. We used the NASA SOFC model as a benchmark, which was created with their Numerical Propulsion System Simulator (NPSS) software framework. Our output results matched within 1% of both the NASA model and open source SOFC performance data. With confidence gained in the accuracy of this model, a 1-MW SOFC-GT hybrid power system was constructed for an aircraft propulsion concept. Overall hybrid system efficiencies of > 75% FTE were observed during standard 36,000 feet cruise flight conditions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

AIRNOISEUAM: An Urban Air Mobility Noise-Exposure Prediction Tool

A new software tool called AIRNOISEUAM is introduced that models the noise exposure of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. Given relevant UAM aircraft performance models, mission profiles, and Noise-Power-Distance data, AIRNOISEUAM predicts the noise exposure footprint for receptors on the ground. The performance of AIRNOISEUAM using a Robinson R66 helicopter model and a six-passenger quadrotor model, and a diverse set of scenarios from NASA’s UAM human-in-the-loop simulations is compared to that of the industry-standard tool with the same inputs. The predicted noise exposure results from both tools are found to be nearly identical. AIRNOISEUAM offers a fast-time, flexible interface and modular design to facilitate the dynamic requirements of the aviation research community.

Urban air mobility↗

AIRNOISEUAM: An Urban Air Mobility Noise-Exposure Prediction Tool

A new software tool called AIRNOISEUAM is introduced that models the noise exposure of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. Given relevant UAM aircraft performance models, mission profiles, and Noise-Power-Distance data, AIRNOISEUAM predicts the noise exposure footprint for receptors on the ground. The performance of AIRNOISEUAM using a Robinson R66 helicopter model and a six-passenger quadrotor model, and a diverse set of scenarios from NASA’s UAM human-in-the-loop simulations is compared to that of the industry-standard tool with the same inputs. The predicted noise exposure results from both tools are found to be nearly identical. AIRNOISEUAM offers a fast-time, flexible interface and modular design to facilitate the dynamic requirements of the aviation research community.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Integrating the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) in CTAS Trajectory Synthesizer

The Center-Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Automation System (CTAS), developed at NASA Ames Research Center for assisting controllers in the management and control of air traffic in the extended terminal area, supports the modeling of more than four hundred aircraft types. However, 90% of them are supported indirectly by mapping them to one of a relatively few aircraft types for which CTAS has detailed drag and engine thrust models. On the other hand, the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA), developed and maintained by Eurocontrol, supports more than 300 aircraft types, about one third of which are directly supported, i.e. they have validated performance data. All these data were made available for CTAS by integrating BADA version 3.8 into CTAS Trajectory Synthesizer (TS). Several validation tools were developed and used to validate the integrated code and to evaluate the accuracy of trajectory predictions generated using CTAS "native" and BADA Aircraft Performance Models (APM) comparing them with radar track data. Results of these comparisons indicate that the two models have different strengths and weaknesses. The BADA APM can improve the accuracy of CTAS predictions at least for some aircraft types, especially small aircraft, and for some flight phases, especially climb.

Abramson, Michael↗

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

Green, S.↗

Open-Loop HIRF Experiments Performed on a Fault Tolerant Flight Control Computer

During the third quarter of 1996, the Closed-Loop Systems Laboratory was established at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to study the effects of High Intensity Radiated Fields on complex avionic systems and control system components. This new facility provided a link and expanded upon the existing capabilities of the High Intensity Radiated Fields Laboratory at LaRC that were constructed and certified during 1995-96. The scope of the Closed-Loop Systems Laboratory is to place highly integrated avionics instrumentation into a high intensity radiated field environment, interface the avionics to a real-time flight simulation that incorporates aircraft dynamics, engines, sensors, actuators and atmospheric turbulence, and collect, analyze, and model aircraft performance. This paper describes the layout and functionality of the Closed-Loop Systems Laboratory, and the open-loop calibration experiments that led up to the commencement of closed-loop real-time flight experiments.

Koppen, Daniel M.↗