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At least 19 records

Performance Data Errors in Air Carrier Operations: Causes and Countermeasures

Several airline accidents have occurred in recent years as the result of erroneous weight or performance data used to calculate V-speeds, flap/trim settings, required runway lengths, and/or required climb gradients. In this report we consider 4 recent studies of performance data error, report our own study of ASRS-reported incidents, and provide countermeasures that can reduce vulnerability to accidents caused by performance data errors. Performance data are generated through a lengthy process involving several employee groups and computer and/or paper-based systems. Although much of the airline indUStry 's concern has focused on errors pilots make in entering FMS data, we determined that errors occur at every stage of the process and that errors by ground personnel are probably at least as frequent and certainly as consequential as errors by pilots. Most of the errors we examined could in principle have been trapped by effective use of existing procedures or technology; however, the fact that they were not trapped anywhere indicates the need for better countermeasures. Existing procedures are often inadequately designed to mesh with the ways humans process information. Because procedures often do not take into account the ways in which information flows in actual flight ops and time pressures and interruptions experienced by pilots and ground personnel, vulnerability to error is greater. Some aspects of NextGen operations may exacerbate this vulnerability. We identify measures to reduce the number of errors and to help catch the errors that occur.

countermeasures↗

Relative Effects of Trajectory Prediction Errors on the AAC Autoresolver

Trajectory prediction is fundamental to automated separation assurance. Every missed alert, false alert and loss of separation can be traced to one or more errors in trajectory prediction. These errors are a product of many different sources including wind prediction errors, inferred pilot intent errors, surveillance errors, navigation errors and aircraft weight estimation errors. This study analyzes the impact of six different types of errors on the performance of an automated separation assurance system composed of a geometric conflict detection algorithm and the Advanced Airspace Concept Autoresolver resolution algorithm. Results show that, of the error sources considered in this study, top-of-descent errors were the leading contributor to missed alerts and failed resolution maneuvers. Descent-speed errors were another significant contributor, as were cruise-speed errors in certain situations. The results further suggest that increasing horizontal detection and resolution standards are not effective strategies for mitigating these types of error sources.

Lauderdale, Todd↗

The Effects of Speed Uncertainty on a Separation Assurance Algorithm

Trajectory prediction is central to separation assurance, because it is necessary to accurately predict where an aircraft will be in the future to avoid losses of separation. In any system in the field there will always be uncertainty associated with trajectory prediction. This uncertainty is a product of many different sources including wind prediction errors, pilot intent, surveillance errors, navigation errors and aircraft weight. The purpose of this study is to parametrically analyze the effects of aircraft speed errors on conflict detection and to analyze the performance of a conflict resolution algorithm when these speed errors are present. Results show that a speed error of +/- 10% of the cruise speed can result in about 30% of the conflicts not being detected ten minutes before the loss of separation. It can also result in 50% more resolutions being performed to maintain separation.

Lauderdale, Todd A.↗

Design of a flight control system for a highly maneuverable aircraft using mu synthesis

This paper presents a methodology for the design of longitudinal controllers for high performance aircraft operating over large ranges of angle of attack. The technique used for controller design is structured singular value or mu synthesis. The controller is designed to minimize the weighted H-infinity norm of the error between the aircraft response and the desired handling quality specifications without saturating the control actuators. The mu synthesis procedure ensures that the stability and performance of the aircraft is robust to parameter variations and modeling uncertainties included in the design model. Nonlinear simulations demonstrate that the controller satisfies handling quality requirements and provides excellent tracking of pilot inputs over a wide range of transient angles of attack and Mach number.

Reiner, Jacob↗

A piloted simulator evaluation of a ground-based 4D descent advisor algorithm

A ground-based, four-dimensional (4D) descent-advisor algorithm is under development at NASA Ames Research Center. The algorithm combines detailed aerodynamic, propulsive, and atmospheric models with an efficient numerical integration scheme to generate 4D descent advisories. This paper investigates the ability of the 4D descent advisor algorithm to provide adequate control of arrival time for aircraft not equipped with on-board 4D guidance systems. A piloted simulation was conducted to determine the precision with which the descent advisor could predict the 4D trajectories of typical straight-in descents flown by airline pilots under different wind conditions. The effects of errors in the estimation of wind and initial aircraft weight were also studied. A description of the descent advisor as well as the results of the simulation studies are presented.

Green, Steven M.↗

A piloted simulator evaluation of a ground-based 4-D descent advisor algorithm

A ground-based, four dimensional (4D) descent-advisor algorithm is under development at NASA-Ames. The algorithm combines detailed aerodynamic, propulsive, and atmospheric models with an efficient numerical integration scheme to generate 4D descent advisories. The ability is investigated of the 4D descent advisor algorithm to provide adequate control of arrival time for aircraft not equipped with on-board 4D guidance systems. A piloted simulation was conducted to determine the precision with which the descent advisor could predict the 4D trajectories of typical straight-in descents flown by airline pilots under different wind conditions. The effects of errors in the estimation of wind and initial aircraft weight were also studied. A description of the descent advisor as well as the result of the simulation studies are presented.

Davis, Thomas J.↗

Aircraft Conceptual Structural Design Using the AMMIT Structural Analysis Tool

Aircraft conceptual structural design is the process of developing and refining an idea for an aircraft into a feasible structural design. The process typically involves multiple evaluations of a single configuration and can require designers to examine thousands of concepts. Standard approaches to conducting structural analyses in this phase are either based on the use of historical or empirical data or often require significant expertise in structural analysis to perform these rapid assessments. The AMMIT structural analysis tool includes structural line models and handbook methods wrapped in a simple to use interface that can enable rapid, physics-based structural designs without requiring extensive structural expertise. The objectives of the present paper are to introduce AMMIT, describe the methods used in AMMIT, and present the results of the validation effort. Validation of the AMMIT methodology was performed on nine aircraft to determine the accuracy of the methods, highlight features of AMMIT, and guide future development of the methodology. Results of the validation effort indicated that AMMIT provides a prediction of primary structural weight for each aircraft with an acceptable level of error during the preliminary design phase with a minimal expenditure of computational resources.

Horvath, Bryce L.↗

Discretization Error Estimation and Control for Farfield Acoustic Signatures

We investigate the utility of adjoint-based error estimates for sonic boom farfield simulations governed by solutions of the augmented Burgers’ equation. Solution of this nonlinear system uses operator splitting with a second-order finite volume discretization in space and second-order Runge-Kutta time marching, while the absorption and molecular relaxation are solved using second-order central differencing. The discretization error in selected ground sonic boom cost functionals is estimated using the method of adjoint-weighted residuals. Key elements of the implementation process are emphasized with details provided on the practical aspects as appliedto the sonic boom farfield propagation. We establish the accuracy of the adjoint solutions usingcomplex step and finite difference approaches, and examine the accuracy of the error estimates using analytical N-wave solutions. We then apply it to a pressure waveform corresponding to the X-59 research aircraft. The investigations demonstrate that the method of adjoint-weighted residuals accurately predicts the level of discretization error present in sonic boom farfield simulations while offering insight into which features of the near field signal are the primary drivers of ground noise metrics. The numerical results indicate that at sampling frequencies as low as50kHz, discretization error in the propagation is under 0.01 dB[A] for realistically complex examples.

CST↗

Neural Network and Regression Methods Demonstrated in the Design Optimization of a Subsonic Aircraft

The neural network and regression methods of NASA Glenn Research Center s COMETBOARDS design optimization testbed were used to generate approximate analysis and design models for a subsonic aircraft operating at Mach 0.85 cruise speed. The analytical model is defined by nine design variables: wing aspect ratio, engine thrust, wing area, sweep angle, chord-thickness ratio, turbine temperature, pressure ratio, bypass ratio, fan pressure; and eight response parameters: weight, landing velocity, takeoff and landing field lengths, approach thrust, overall efficiency, and compressor pressure and temperature. The variables were adjusted to optimally balance the engines to the airframe. The solution strategy included a sensitivity model and the soft analysis model. Researchers generated the sensitivity model by training the approximators to predict an optimum design. The trained neural network predicted all response variables, within 5-percent error. This was reduced to 1 percent by the regression method. The soft analysis model was developed to replace aircraft analysis as the reanalyzer in design optimization. Soft models have been generated for a neural network method, a regression method, and a hybrid method obtained by combining the approximators. The performance of the models is graphed for aircraft weight versus thrust as well as for wing area and turbine temperature. The regression method followed the analytical solution with little error. The neural network exhibited 5-percent maximum error over all parameters. Performance of the hybrid method was intermediate in comparison to the individual approximators. Error in the response variable is smaller than that shown in the figure because of a distortion scale factor. The overall performance of the approximators was considered to be satisfactory because aircraft analysis with NASA Langley Research Center s FLOPS (Flight Optimization System) code is a synthesis of diverse disciplines: weight estimation, aerodynamic analysis, engine cycle analysis, propulsion data interpolation, mission performance, airfield length for landing and takeoff, noise footprint, and others.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗

Application of parametric weight and cost estimating relationships to future transport aircraft

A model comprised of system level weight and cost estimating relationships for transport aircraft is presented. In order to determine the production cost of future aircraft its weight is first estimated based on performance parameters, and then the cost is estimated as a function of weight. For initial evaluation CERs were applied to actual system weights of six aircraft (3 military and 3 commercial) with mean empty weights ranging from 30,000 to 300,000 lb. The resulting cost estimates were compared with actual costs. The average absolute error was only 4.3%. Then the model was applied to five aircraft still in the design phase (Boeing 757, 767 and 777, and BAC HS146-100 and HS146-200). While the estimates for the 757 and 767 are within 2 to 3 percent of their assumed break-even costs, it is recognized that these are very sensitive to the validity of the estimated weights, inflation factor, the amount assumed for nonrecurring costs, etc., and it is suggested that the model may be used in conjunction with other information such as RDT&E cost estimates and market forecasts. The model will help NASA evaluate new technologies and production costs of future aircraft.

Beltramo, M. N.↗

Goal-Oriented Discretization Error Control in Coupled Nearfield-Farfield Low-Boom Simulations

The method of adjoint weighted residuals is used to determine the level of discretization error in loudness predictions of sonic booms on the ground. We analyze the standard nearfied-farfield domain decomposition approach. In the nearfield domain, the three-dimensional Euler equations are solved to obtain a pressure signature generated by the aircraft. In the farfield, this waveform is propagated through the atmosphere to the ground by solving the augmented Burgers’ equation. Loudness is characterized using weighted sound-exposure-level metrics. We formulate discretization error estimates for the ground signature and loudness metrics for this one-way coupled system. Although the nearfield solution is independent of the farfield, the adjoint formulation for the coupled system provides feedback from the farfield to identify high-error regions in the nearfield. The results demonstrate that the discrete adjoint implementation is asymptotically consistent and provides reliable error estimates. Furthermore, we show how the error can be controlled through adaptive refinement of the nearfield mesh. The approach is evaluated on two- and three-dimensional problems, including the X-59 flight demonstration aircraft.

CST↗

The effect of digital computing on the performance of a closed-loop control-loading system

A sampled data model of a control loader system for flight simulation was developed and successfully validated. The model accounts for the effects of the central digital simulation computer on the response of the analog control loader system and includes the spring-gradients, bob-weight, and actuator-lag effects of the aircraft. The revelation of a frequency error introduced by the implementation of force feedback through the digital computer that could adversely affect pilot performance in simulated flight has led to a proposed new implementation which will minimize the impact of the frequency problem.

Parrish, R. V.↗

Robust Damage-Mitigating Control of Aircraft for High Performance and Structural Durability

This paper presents the concept and a design methodology for robust damage-mitigating control (DMC) of aircraft. The goal of DMC is to simultaneously achieve high performance and structural durability. The controller design procedure involves consideration of damage at critical points of the structure, as well as the performance requirements of the aircraft. An aeroelastic model of the wings has been formulated and is incorporated into a nonlinear rigid-body model of aircraft flight-dynamics. Robust damage-mitigating controllers are then designed using the H(infinity)-based structured singular value (mu) synthesis method based on a linearized model of the aircraft. In addition to penalizing the error between the ideal performance and the actual performance of the aircraft, frequency-dependent weights are placed on the strain amplitude at the root of each wing. Using each controller in turn, the control system is put through an identical sequence of maneuvers, and the resulting (varying amplitude cyclic) stress profiles are analyzed using a fatigue crack growth model that incorporates the effects of stress overload. Comparisons are made to determine the impact of different weights on the resulting fatigue crack damage in the wings. The results of simulation experiments show significant savings in fatigue life of the wings while retaining the dynamic performance of the aircraft.

Caplin, Jeffrey↗

Aircraft control surface failure detection and isolation using the OSGLR test

The performance of the orthogonal series generalized likelihood ratio (OSGLR) test in detecting and isolating commercial aircraft control surface and actuator failures is evaluated. A modification to incorporate age-weighting which significantly reduces the sensitivity of the algorithm to modeling errors is presented. The steady-state implementation of the algorithm based on a single linear model valid for a cruise flight condition is tested using a nonlinear aircraft simulation. A number of off-nominal no-failure flight conditions including maneuvers, nonzero flap deflections, different turbulence levels and steady winds were tested. Based on the no-failure decision functions produced by off-nominal flight conditions, the failure detection and isolation performance at the nominal flight condition was determined. The extension of the algorithm to a wider flight envelope by scheduling on dynamic pressure and flap deflection is examined. Based on this testing, the OSGLR algorithm should be capable of detecting control surface failures that would affect the safe operation of a commercial aircraft. Isolation may be difficult if there are several surfaces which produce similar effects on the aircraft. Extending the algorithm over the entire operating envelope of a commercial aircraft appears feasible.

Bonnice, W. F.↗

Automatic braking system modification for the Advanced Transport Operating Systems (ATOPS) Transportation Systems Research Vehicle (TSRV)

Modifications were designed for the B-737-100 Research Aircraft autobrake system hardware of the Advanced Transport Operating Systems (ATOPS) Program at Langley Research Center. These modifications will allow the on-board flight control computer to control the aircraft deceleration after landing to a continuously variable level for the purpose of executing automatic high speed turn-offs from the runway. A bread board version of the proposed modifications was built and tested in simulated stopping conditions. Test results, for various aircraft weights, turnoff speed, winds, and runway conditions show that the turnoff speeds are achieved generally with errors less than 1 ft/sec.

Coogan, J. J.↗

Subsonic Aircraft With Regression and Neural-Network Approximators Designed

At the NASA Glenn Research Center, NASA Langley Research Center's Flight Optimization System (FLOPS) and the design optimization testbed COMETBOARDS with regression and neural-network-analysis approximators have been coupled to obtain a preliminary aircraft design methodology. For a subsonic aircraft, the optimal design, that is the airframe-engine combination, is obtained by the simulation. The aircraft is powered by two high-bypass-ratio engines with a nominal thrust of about 35,000 lbf. It is to carry 150 passengers at a cruise speed of Mach 0.8 over a range of 3000 n mi and to operate on a 6000-ft runway. The aircraft design utilized a neural network and a regression-approximations-based analysis tool, along with a multioptimizer cascade algorithm that uses sequential linear programming, sequential quadratic programming, the method of feasible directions, and then sequential quadratic programming again. Optimal aircraft weight versus the number of design iterations is shown. The central processing unit (CPU) time to solution is given. It is shown that the regression-method-based analyzer exhibited a smoother convergence pattern than the FLOPS code. The optimum weight obtained by the approximation technique and the FLOPS code differed by 1.3 percent. Prediction by the approximation technique exhibited no error for the aircraft wing area and turbine entry temperature, whereas it was within 2 percent for most other parameters. Cascade strategy was required by FLOPS as well as the approximators. The regression method had a tendency to hug the data points, whereas the neural network exhibited a propensity to follow a mean path. The performance of the neural network and regression methods was considered adequate. It was at about the same level for small, standard, and large models with redundancy ratios (defined as the number of input-output pairs to the number of unknown coefficients) of 14, 28, and 57, respectively. In an SGI octane workstation (Silicon Graphics, Inc., Mountainview, CA), the regression training required a fraction of a CPU second, whereas neural network training was between 1 and 9 min, as given. For a single analysis cycle, the 3-sec CPU time required by the FLOPS code was reduced to milliseconds by the approximators. For design calculations, the time with the FLOPS code was 34 min. It was reduced to 2 sec with the regression method and to 4 min by the neural network technique. The performance of the regression and neural network methods was found to be satisfactory for the analysis and design optimization of the subsonic aircraft.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

Use of scan overlap redundancy to enhance multispectral aircraft scanner data

Two criteria were suggested for optimizing the resolution error versus signal-to-noise-ratio tradeoff. The first criterion uses equal weighting coefficients and chooses n, the number of lines averaged, so as to make the average resolution error equal to the noise error. The second criterion adjusts both the number and relative sizes of the weighting coefficients so as to minimize the total error (resolution error plus noise error). The optimum set of coefficients depends upon the geometry of the resolution element, the number of redundant scan lines, the scan line increment, and the original signal-to-noise ratio of the channel. Programs were developed to find the optimum number and relative weights of the averaging coefficients. A working definition of signal-to-noise ratio was given and used to try line averaging on a typical set of data. Line averaging was evaluated only with respect to its effect on classification accuracy.

Lindenlaub, J. C.↗