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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Correlation Between Weather Alerts and Grid Component Failures for Grid Alert

Weather events cause most grid failures. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Recent research at Idaho National Laboratory into electric grid risk analysis methods resulted in a tool that allows for the development of the most likely scenarios given failure probabilities of grid components. INL has a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) program to develop a Grid Alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios uses MASTERRI and then notifies the utility if there is significant risk. Historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid have been compiled by utilities and organizations such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates are needed for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures are correlated with historic weather events from Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS). These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. This discusses the Grid Alert project plan but focuses on the data gathered and process used in determining failure rates for possible grid failure scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

DMTN-165: A Hybrid Notification and Alert Retrieval Service

We consider the implications of providing a subset of alert packet contents in the alert stream, with the full alert packets available for rate-limited retrieval using an identifier included in the "lightweight" alert. This hybrid approach would enable much wider dissemination of the complete lightweight alert stream, potentially to thousands more users than is possible in the current baseline. In turn this "alerts on your laptop" access would allow users to conduct more sophisticated filtering and analysis than the current Alert Filtering Service, increasing the overall scientific returns of the alert stream. Community brokers would still be able to retrieve all of the contents of the full alert stream within the 60 second latency window and would gain greater control over their ingestion of the bulk alert data. Technically, this hybrid system may represent a modest increase in complexity over the current baseline but is likely to be more operationally robust.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Natural Hazard Forecast Alert Grid Risk System

Weather events cause most power outages. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Idaho National Laboratory had a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response program to develop a grid alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios using MASTERRI (Modeling And Simulation for Targeted Reliability and Resilience Improvement). For high-risk events, the application can then send alert links to subscribed electric distribution utility operations staff to allow them to see and evaluate the scenarios and the impact in a web based interactive map tool. This proof of concept application used data from utilities and organizations, such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which have complied historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid. Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates were calculated for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures were correlated with historic weather events from the Integrated Public Alert & Warning System. These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. Working with an industry collaborator, actual grid models and data were used for demonstration cases. This report outlines the work performed for this project.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Alerga: Alert Aggregation and Reasoning in GOOSE Simulation Pipeline

IEC 61850 specifies the Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) protocol as one option for low latency communication of substation-related events. Due to its strict timing requirements, GOOSE lacks any form of encryption or authentication and has only minimal integrity guarantees. These absences render the protocol vulnerable to a variety of communication anomalies, including adversarial action. In particular, an adversary with access to the substation network can launch man in the middle (MITM) attacks. We propose Alerga, a set of tools to allow operators to mitigate some of the risks of the protocol while retaining its strengths. To that end, we have developed first a GOOSE simulation pipeline including data generation, anomaly detection, alert handling, causal reasoning and data visualization components. The simulator is designed to be modular, allowing operators to swap components to better fit their network capabilities. The volume of alert traffic on a substation network threatens operators with alert fatigue. In order to combat this, we secondly present a novel form of alert aggregation and processing, offering operators a condensed view of any threats to the system. Thirdly, to facilitate the handling of these threats, our causal reasoning system traces the alerts back to their most likely cause, generating an initial hypothesis for operators to investigate.

alert aggregation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures, specifically, by providing situational awareness in near real-time about flood impacts to enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions to forecast flood events at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models – GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the purpose of this project is to implement a Model of Models (MoM) approach to integrate the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity at watershed level worldwide, and send alerts based on severity similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes) to flood impacted communities. The alerts containing flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. The current version of the MoM approach was implemented for a case study flood event that occurred during January and February of 2020 in South and Central Africa. The findings of the case study event reveal that the approach is effective in identifying potential flood impact areas and the spatio-temporal variation of flood severity, flood depth and extent at watershed level, which will be used to assess infrastructure and societal impacts using earth-observation data and for alerting.

Kar, Bandana↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on Populations of Neutrino Sources from Searches in the Directions of IceCube Neutrino Alerts

Beginning in 2016, the IceCube Neutrino Observatory has sent out alerts in real time containing the information of high-energy ($E$ ≳ 100 TeV) neutrino candidate events with moderate to high (≳30%) probability of astrophysical origin. In this work, we use a recent catalog of such alert events, which, in addition to events announced in real time, includes events that were identified retroactively and covers the time period of 2011–2020. We also search for additional, lower-energy neutrinos from the arrival directions of these IceCube alerts. We show how performing such an analysis can constrain the contribution of rare populations of cosmic neutrino sources to the diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux. After searching for neutrino emission coincident with these alert events on various timescales, we find no significant evidence of either minute-scale or day-scale transient neutrino emission or of steady neutrino emission in the direction of these alert events. This study also shows how numerous a population of neutrino sources has to be to account for the complete astrophysical neutrino flux. Assuming that sources have the same luminosity, an $E$ -2.5 neutrino spectrum, and number densities that follow star formation rates, the population of sources has to be more numerous than 7 × 10 -9 Mpc -3 . This number changes to 3 × 10 -7 Mpc -3 if number densities instead have no cosmic evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

IceCat-1: The IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks

We present a catalog of likely astrophysical neutrino track-like events from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. IceCube began reporting likely astrophysical neutrinos in 2016, and this system was updated in 2019. The catalog presented here includes events that were reported in real time since 2019, as well as events identified in archival data samples starting from 2011. We report 275 neutrino events from two selection channels as the first entries in the catalog, the IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks, which will see ongoing extensions with additional alerts. The Gold and Bronze alert channels respectively provide neutrino candidates with a 50% and 30% probability of being astrophysical, on average assuming an astrophysical neutrino power-law energy spectral index of 2.19. For each neutrino alert, we provide the reconstructed energy, direction, false-alarm rate, probability of being astrophysical in origin, and likelihood contours describing the spatial uncertainty in the alert's reconstructed location. We also investigate a directional correlation of these neutrino events with gamma-ray and X-ray catalogs, including 4FGL, 3HWC, TeVCat, and Swift-BAT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

RADAMS: Resilient and adaptive alert and attention management strategy against Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks

Attacks exploiting human attentional vulnerability have posed severe threats to cybersecurity. In this work, we identify and formally define a new type of proactive attentional attacks called Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks that generate a large volume of feint attacks to overload human operators and hide real attacks among feints. Here, we incorporate human factors (e.g., levels of expertise, stress, and efficiency) and empirical psychological results (e.g., the Yerkes-Dodson law and the sunk cost fallacy) to model the operators’ attention dynamics and their decision-making processes along with the real-time alert monitoring and inspection. To assist human operators in dismissing the feints and escalating the real attacks timely and accurately, we develop a Resilient and Adaptive Data-driven alert and Attention Management Strategy (RADAMS) that de-emphasizes alerts selectively based on the abstracted category labels of the alerts. RADAMS uses reinforcement learning to achieve a customized and transferable design for various human operators and evolving IDoS attacks. The integrated modeling and theoretical analysis lead to the Product Principle of Attention (PPoA), fundamental limits, and the tradeoff among crucial human and economic factors. Experimental results corroborate that the proposed strategy outperforms the default strategy and can reduce the IDoS risk by as much as 20%. Besides, the strategy is resilient to large variations of costs, attack frequencies, and human attention capacities. We have recognized interesting phenomena such as attentional risk equivalency, attacker’s dilemma, and the half-truth optimal attack strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fermi -LAT follow-up observations in seven years of real-time high-energy neutrino alerts

The realtime program for high-energy neutrino track events detected by the IceCube South Pole Neutrino Observatory releases alerts to the astronomical community with the goal of identifying electromagnetic counterparts to astrophysical neutrinos. Gamma-ray observations from theFermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) enabled the identification of the flaring gamma-ray blazar TXS 0506+056 as a likely counterpart to the neutrino event IC-170922A. By continuously monitoring the gamma-ray sky,Fermi-LAT plays a key role in the identification of candidate counterparts to realtime neutrino alerts. In this paper, we present theFermi-LAT strategy for following up high-energy neutrino alerts applied to seven years of IceCube data. Right after receiving an alert, a search is performed in order to identify gamma-ray activity from known and newly detected sources that are positionally consistent with the neutrino localization. In this work, we study the population of blazars found in coincidence with high-energy neutrinos and compare them to the full population of gamma-ray blazars detected byFermi-LAT. We also evaluate the relationship between the neutrino and gamma-ray luminosities, finding different trends between the two blazar classes BL Lacs and flat-spectrum radio quasars.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pre-training Vision Models for the Classification of Alerts from Wide-field Time-domain Surveys

Modern wide-field time-domain surveys facilitate the study of transient, variable and moving phenomena by conducting image differencing and relaying alerts to their communities. Machine learning tools have been used on data from these surveys and their precursors for more than a decade, and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), which make predictions directly from input images, saw particularly broad adoption through the 2010s. Since then, continually rapid advances in computer vision have transformed the standard practices around using such models. It is now commonplace to use standardized architectures pre-trained on large corpora of everyday images (e.g., ImageNet). In contrast, time-domain astronomy studies still typically design custom CNN architectures and train them from scratch. Here, we explore the effects of adopting various pre-training regimens and standardized model architectures on the performance of alert classification. We find that the resulting models match or outperform a custom, specialized CNN like what is typically used for filtering alerts. Moreover, our results show that pre-training on galaxy images from Galaxy Zoo tends to yield better performance than pre-training on ImageNet or training from scratch. We observe that the design of standardized architectures are much better optimized than the custom CNN baseline, requiring significantly less time and memory for inference despite having more trainable parameters. On the eve of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time and other image-differencing surveys, these findings advocate for a paradigm shift in the creation of vision models for alerts, demonstrating that greater performance and efficiency, in time and in data, can be achieved by adopting the latest practices from the computer vision field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Swift /UVOT follow-up of gravitational wave alerts in the O3 era

ABSTRACT In this paper, we report on the observational performance of the Swift Ultra-violet/Optical Telescope (UVOT) in response to the gravitational wave (GW) alerts announced by the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory and the Advanced Virgo detector during the O3 period. We provide the observational strategy for follow-up of GW alerts and provide an overview of the processing and analysis of candidate optical/UV sources. For the O3 period, we also provide a statistical overview and report on serendipitous sources discovered by Swift/UVOT. Swift followed 18 GW candidate alerts, with UVOT observing a total of 424 deg2. We found 27 sources that changed in magnitude at the 3σ level compared with archival u- or g-band catalogued values. Swift/UVOT also followed up a further 13 sources reported by other facilities during the O3 period. Using catalogue information, we divided these 40 sources into five initial classifications: 11 candidate active galactic nuclei (AGNs)/quasars, three cataclysmic variables (CVs), nine supernovae, 11 unidentified sources that had archival photometry, and six uncatalogued sources for which no archival photometry was available. We have no strong evidence to identify any of these transients as counterparts to the GW events. The 17 unclassified sources are likely a mix of AGN and a class of fast-evolving transient, and one source may be a CV.

Oates, S. R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Introduction to ALERT: A User-Interface Tool for Resilient Optimization

As the cyber-physical systems grow in complexity, there is a need for proactive resilience strategies that involve online, adaptive control actions to best prepare for any impending adversarial events. In this technical effort, supported by RD2C LDRD initiative, the project team designed and demonstrated online strategies – referred to as ALERT controls – for proactive and adaptive tuning of existing optimal controls in a microgrid, with quantifiably assured margins of resilience to various cyber-physical adversarial events. This ALERT functionality is made available to the end-users, e.g., the system operators, via an interactive user-interface. The end-users will not only be able to use the interface to visualize the system’s operation under various cyber-physical adversarial scenarios, but also evaluate the amount of tolerance the system has against selected adversarial perturbations of interest (e.g., malfunctioning sensors, suspected attacked measurements) via the adversarial plots. In this technical report, we briefly outline the algorithmic modules of the developed ALERT control technology, and introduce the user-interface tool that allows end-users (e.g., microgrid operators) to enter their system description, specify various operational and resilience requirements, and evaluate the impact of the control decisions via illustrative plots.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Detection of Disease Re-emergence Using a Web-Based Tool (RED Alert): Design and Case Analysis Study

Background: Currently, the identification of infectious disease re-emergence is performed without describing specific quantitative criteria that can be used to identify re-emergence events consistently. This practice may lead to ineffective mitigation. In addition, identification of factors contributing to local disease re-emergence and assessment of global disease re-emergence require access to data about disease incidence and a large number of factors at the local level for the entire world. This paper presents Re-emerging Disease Alert (RED Alert), a web-based tool designed to help public health officials detect and understand infectious disease re-emergence. Objective: Our objective is to bring together a variety of disease-related data and analytics needed to help public health analysts answer the following 3 primary questions for detecting and understanding disease re-emergence: Is there a potential disease re-emergence at the local (country) level? What are the potential contributing factors for this re-emergence? Is there a potential for global re-emergence? Methods: We collected and cleaned disease-related data (eg, case counts, vaccination rates, and indicators related to disease transmission) from several data sources including the World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), World Bank, and Gideon. We combined these data with machine learning and visual analytics into a tool called RED Alert to detect re-emergence for the following 4 diseases: measles, cholera, dengue, and yellow fever. We evaluated the performance of the machine learning models for re-emergence detection and reviewed the output of the tool through a number of case studies. Results: Our supervised learning models were able to identify 82%-90% of the local re-emergence events, although with 18%-31% (except 46% for dengue) false positives. This is consistent with our goal of identifying all possible re-emergences while allowing some false positives. The review of the web-based tool through case studies showed that local re-emergence detection was possible and that the tool provided actionable information about potential factors contributing to the local disease re-emergence and trends in global disease re-emergence. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first tool that focuses specifically on disease re-emergence and addresses the important challenges mentioned above.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Alert Classification for the ALeRCE Broker System: The Light Curve Classifier

We present the first version of the Automatic Learning for the Rapid Classification of Events (ALeRCE) broker light curve classifier. ALeRCE is currently processing the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) alert stream, in preparation for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. The ALeRCE light curve classifier uses variability features computed from the ZTF alert stream and colors obtained from AllWISE and ZTF photometry. We apply a balanced random forest algorithm with a two-level scheme where the top level classifies each source as periodic, stochastic, or transient, and the bottom level further resolves each of these hierarchical classes among 15 total classes. This classifier corresponds to the first attempt to classify multiple classes of stochastic variables (including core- and host-dominated active galactic nuclei, blazars, young stellar objects, and cataclysmic variables) in addition to different classes of periodic and transient sources, using real data. We created a labeled set using various public catalogs (such as the Catalina Surveys and Gaia DR2 variable stars catalogs, and the Million Quasars catalog), and we classify all objects with ≥6 g-band or ≥6 r-band detections in ZTF (868,371 sources as of 2020 June 9), providing updated classifications for sources with new alerts every day. For the top level we obtain macro-averaged precision and recall scores of 0.96 and 0.99, respectively, and for the bottom level we obtain macro-averaged precision and recall scores of 0.57 and 0.76, respectively. Updated classifications from the light curve classifier can be found at the ALeRCE Explorer website (http://alerce.online).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combined Pre-supernova Alert System with KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande

Preceding a core-collapse supernova (CCSN), various processes produce an increasing amount of neutrinos of all flavors characterized by mounting energies from the interior of massive stars. Among them, the electron antineutrinos are potentially detectable by terrestrial neutrino experiments such as KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande (SK) via inverse beta decay interactions. Once these pre-supernova (pre-SN) neutrinos are observed, an early warning of the upcoming CCSN can be provided. In light of this, KamLAND and SK, both located in the Kamioka mine in Japan, have been monitoring pre-SN neutrinos since 2015 and 2021, respectively. Recently, we performed a joint study between KamLAND and SK on pre-SN neutrino detection. A pre-SN alert system combining the KamLAND detector and the SK detector was developed and put into operation, which can provide a supernova alert to the astrophysics community. Fully leveraging the complementary properties of these two detectors, the combined alert is expected to resolve a pre-SN neutrino signal from a 15 M ⊙ star within 510 pc of the Earth at a significance level corresponding to a false alarm rate of no more than 1 per century. For a Betelgeuse-like model with optimistic parameters, it can provide early warnings up to 12 hr in advance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DMTN-093: Design of the LSST Alert Distribution System

We describe the proposed design and implementation of the LSST Alert Distribution System, which provides rapid dissemination of alerts to community alert brokers. At time of writing, this service is still under development; this “living document” describes current thinking, but is expected to evolve over the course of LSST construction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DMTN-221: Periodicity Analysis in Alert Production

The baselined timeseries features to be computed in Alert Production include a Lomb-Scargle periodogram ran on two classes of variable systems: RR Lyrae and Eclipsing Binaries. Based on a simulated LSST-like cadence light curves taken from the Extended LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (ELAsTiCC) we perform an end-to-end test to characterize the periodicity recovery on the Alert Production multi-band light curves. In both variable classes, we found that a single-band Lomb-Scargle implementation yields to a low fraction of recovered periods, with a significant preference on the simple periodic phenomena such as RR Lyrae. We also investigated the results from a multi-band Lomb-Scargle and found an increased fraction of recovered periodicities above 15% for the eclipsing binaries, and over 80$\%$ for the RR Lyrae stars. Our findings suggest that a multi-band Lomb-Scargle should be implemented for searching periodic phenomena through AP. We also asses the computational and scientific performance of several configurations on simulated alert data and find that our current configuration scales linearly with the number of detections while assuming an heuristic frequency grid.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗