Bayesian Program Learning
Article contribution towards Edge.org's annual question. This one will be about a new type of artificial intelligence.
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Importance of the Annual Cycles of SST and Solar Irradiance for Circulation and Rainfall: A Climate Model Simulation Study
Annual cycle of climate and precipitation is related to annual cycle of sunshine and sea-surface temperatures. Understanding its behavior is important for the welfare of humans worldwide. For example, failure of Asian monsoons can cause widespread famine and grave economic disaster in the subtropical regions. For centuries meteorologists have struggled to understand the importance of the summer sunshine and associated heating and the annual cycle of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on rainfall in the subtropics. Because the solar income is pretty steady from year to year, while SSTs depict large interannual variability as consequence of the variability of ocean dynamics, the influence of SSTs on the monsoons are better understood through observational and modeling studies whereas the relationship of annual rainfall to sunshine remains elusive. However, using NASA's state of the art climate model(s) that can generate realistic climate in a computer simulation, one can answer such questions. We asked the question: if there was no annual cycle of the sunshine (and its associated land-heating) or the SST and its associated influence on global circulation, what will happen to the annual cycle of monsoon rains? By comparing the simulation of a 4-year integration of a baseline Control case with two parallel anomaly experiments: 1) with annual mean solar and 2) with annual mean sea-surface temperatures, we were able to draw the following conclusions: (1) Tropical convergence zone and rainfall which moves with the Sun into the northern and southern hemispheres, specifically over the Indian, African, South American and Australian regions, is strongly modulated by the annual cycles of SSTs as well as solar forcings. The influence of the annual cycle of solar heating over land, however, is much stronger than the corresponding SST influence for almost all regions, particularly the subtropics; (2) The seasonal circulation patterns over the vast land-masses of the Northern Hemisphere at mid and high latitudes also get strongly influenced by the annual cycles of solar heating. The SST influence is largely limited to the oceanic regions of these latitudes; (3) The annual mode of precipitation over Amazonia has an equatorial regime revealing a maxima in the month of March associated with SST, and another maxima in the month of January associated with the solar annual cycles, respectively. The baseline simulation, which has both annual cycles, depicts both annual modes and its rainfall is virtually equal to the sum of those two modes; (4) Rainfall over Sahelian-Africa is significantly reduced (increased) in simulations lacking (invoking) solar irradiation with (without) the annual cycle. In fact, the dominant influence of solar irradiation emerges in almost all monsoonal-land regions: India, Southeast Asia, as well as Australia. The only exception is the Continental United States, where solar annual cycle shows only a relatively minor influence on the annual mode of rainfall.
Sud, Yogesh C.↗
Assessing Net Growth of Phytoplankton Biomass on Hourly to Annual Timescales Using the Geostationary Ocean Color Instrument
Questions of whether diurnal changes in carbon fixation affect the global carbon budget cannot be answered using the present generation of polar orbiting ocean color sensors that can only retrieve one image daily. Here, we present novel satellite-derived indices of chlorophyll-based production based on the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), whose hourly imaging capability offer the potential for direct estimates of net phytoplankton growth over hourly to seasonal time scales. Our results reveal large variations in net chlorophyll growth in the GOCI study region, both over the day and between seasons. Hourly changes in chlorophyll concentration are highest during spring while growth rates show maxima during the winter. We show seasonal relationships between growth and photon flux. Our study suggests that Geostationary Ocean Color data can be used to constrain phytoplankton productivity on diurnal time scales and be an essential tool to better understand diurnal growth patterns over large spatial regions.
Joseph E. Salisbury↗
Kelvin Waves during GOAmazon and Their Relationship to Deep Convection
The 2014–15 Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign over the central Amazon near Manaus, Brazil, occurred in coordination with the larger Cloud Processes of the Main Precipitation Systems in Brazil: A Contribution to Cloud-Resolving Modeling and to the Global Precipitation Measurement (CHUVA) project across Brazil. These programs provide observations of convection over the central Amazon on diurnal to annual time scales. Here, we address the question of how Kelvin waves, observed in satellite observations of deep cloud cover over the GOAmazon region during the 2014–15 time period, modulate the growth, type, and organization of convection over the central Amazon. The answer to this question has implications for improved predictability of organized systems over the region and representation of convection and its growth on local to synoptic scales in global models. Our results demonstrate that Kelvin waves are strong modulators of synoptic-scale low- to midlevel free-tropospheric moisture, integrated moisture convergence, and surface heat fluxes. These regional modifications of the environment impact the local diurnal cycle of convection, favoring the development of mesoscale convective systems. As a result, localized rainfall is also strongly modulated, with the majority of rainfall in the GOAmazon region occurring during the passage of these systems.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Does Commercial Space Really Need MOA?
The Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) discipline actively participates as a project member to achieve their common objective of full mission success while also providing an independent risk assessment to the Project Manager. The cornerstone element of MOA is the independent assessment of the risks the project faces in executing its mission. Especially as the project approaches critical mission events, it becomes imperative to clearly identify and assess the risks the project faces. This has been the paradigm for robotic space exploration missions, but does the same apply to commercial space operations? This is the question which is the driver for this year's MOA track at the 18th Annual Improving Space Operations workshop in April at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and the question we examine in this paper. Corollaries to this driving question are why shouldn't MOA apply and are there factors beyond mission success with acceptable risk which apply to commercial space operations that are not present in government scientific missions? To address these questions, areas we focus on include risk (both mission and profit) management for commercial space operations and the practical extension of robotic mission MOA to commercial space operations. Another key area to look at is command file errors which are a major concern for deep space robotic missions, but can we worry about them less with manned missions or unmanned supply mission? Further, with the growing concern about space debris, we delve into the role of MOA relative to End-of-Mission activities. This paper examines these topics and in particular the perspectives presented at the workshop to begin charting the appropriate course for MOA in the emerging sector of Commercial Space Operations.
commercial space↗
Review of NASA's Evidence Reports on Human Health Risks
NASA has requested a study from the Institute of Medicine (IOM) to provide an independent review of more than 30 evidence reports on human health risks for long duration and exploration spaceflight. The evidence reports, which are publicly available, are categorized into five broad categories: (1) behavioral health and performance; (2) human health countermeasures (with a focus on bone metabolism and orthopedics, nutrition, immunology, and cardiac and pulmonary physiology); (3) radiation; (4) human factors issues; and (5) exploration medical capabilities. The reports are revised on an ongoing basis to incorporate new scientific information. In conducting this study, an IOM ad hoc committee will build on the 2008 IOM report Review of NASA's Human Research Program Evidence Books. That report provided an assessment of the process used for developing the evidence reports and provided an initial review of the evidence reports that had been completed at that time. Each year, NASA staff will identify a set of evidence reports for committee review. Over the course of the study all evidence reports will be reviewed. The committee will hold an annual scientific workshop to receive input on the evidence reports it is reviewing that year and an update on the recent literature. The committee will issue an annual letter report that addresses the following questions relevant to each evidence report: 1. Does the evidence report provide sufficient evidence, as well as sufficient risk context, that the risk is of concern for long-term space missions? 2. Does the evidence report make the case for the research gaps presented? 3. Are there any additional gaps in knowledge or areas of fundamental research that should be considered to enhance the basic understanding of this specific risk? 4. Does the evidence report address relevant interactions among risks? 5. Is input from additional disciplines needed? 6. Is the breadth of the cited literature sufficient? 7. What is the overall readability and quality? 8. Is the expertise of the authors sufficient to fully cover the scope of the given risk? 9. Has the evidence report addressed previous recommendations made by the IOM in the 2008 letter report?
Scott-Conner, Carol E. H.↗
LDRD 2024 Annual Report: Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program Activities
One fundamental question underlying all living organisms is the need to understand their hierarchical organizations and physical changes with the necessary spatial and temporal resolutions under physiological or pathological conditions. This is a multi-scale challenge requiring imaging from sub-nanometers to micrometers in a cellular context. While individual imaging techniques are available, there is a critical need to integrate them into a workflow capability. Our objective is to develop an integrated multi-disciplinary and multi-scale bioimaging capability at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The capability expands BNL’s existing facility operation program in bioimaging and positions BNL in a leadership position in bioimaging research. The capability also addresses the grand challenges of the Department of Energy (DOE) science programs for national bioenergy sustainability and security.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Orbiting Carbon Observatory
Human impact on the environment has produced measurable changes in the geological record since the late 1700s. Anthropogenic emissions of CO2 today may cause the global climate to depart for its natural behavior for many millenia. CO2 is the primary anthropogenic driver of climate change. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory goals are to help collect measurements of atmospheric CO2, answering questions such as why the atmospheric CO2 buildup varies annually, the roles of the oceans and land ecosystems in absorbing CO2, the roles of North American and Eurasian sinks and how these carbon sinks respond to climate change. The present carbon cycle, CO2 variability, and climate uncertainties due atmospheric CO2 uncertainties are highlighted in this presentation.
orbiting carbon observatory (OCO)↗
Prevalence of Self-Reported Voice Concerns and Associated Risk Markers in a Nonclinical Sample of Military Service Members
Introduction: Difficult communication environments are common in military settings, and effective voice use can be critical to mission success. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of self-reported voice disorders among U.S. military service members and to identify factors that contribute to their voice concerns. Method: A nonclinical sample of 4,123 active-duty service members was recruited across Department of Defense hearing conservation clinics. During their required annual hearing evaluation, volunteers provided responses to voice-related questions including a slightly adapted version of the Voice Handicap Index-10 (VHI-10) as part of a larger survey about communication issues. Changepoint detection was applied to age and years of service to explore cohort effects in the reporting of voice concerns. Logistic regression analyses examined multiple available factors related to communication to identify factors associated with abnormal results on the VHI-10. Results: Among the respondents, 41% reported experiencing vocal hoarseness or fatigue at least several times per year, and 8.2% ( n = 336) scored above the recommended abnormal cut-point value of 11 on the VHI-10. Factors independently associated with the greatest risk for self-reported voice concerns were sex (female), cadmium exposure, vocal demands (the need for a strong, clear voice), and auditory health measures (frequency of experiencing temporary threshold shifts; self-reported hearing difficulties). Conclusions: Based on self-reported voice concerns and false negative rates reported in the literature, the prevalence of dysphonia in a large sample of active-duty service members is estimated to be 11.7%, which is higher than that in the general population. Certain predictors for voice concerns were expected based on previous literature, like female sex and voice use, but frequency of temporary threshold shifts and exposure to cadmium were surprising. The strong link between voice and auditory problems has particular implications regarding the need for effective communication in high-noise military and other occupational environments.
Audiology & Speech-Language Pathology↗
Regional Climatology and Surface Radiation Budget
The climatology and surface radiation budget (SRB) of a region are intimately related. This paper presents a brief examination of this relationship. An 8-year surface radiation budget data set has been developed based on satellite measurements. In that data set and in this paper a region is defined as a quasi-square 2.5o in latitude and approximately the same physical distance in longitude. A pilot study by Wilber et al. (1998) showed a variety of behaviors of the annual cycles for selected regions. Selected desert regions form a loop in a specific part of the plot, with large NLW and large NSW. Tropical wet regions form much smaller loops in a different part of the plot, with small NLW and large NSW. For regions selected in high latitude the annual cycles form nearly linear figures in another part of the plot. The question arises as to whether these trajectories are characteristic of the climatology of the region or simply the behavior of the few regions selected from the set of 6596 regions. In order to address this question, it is necessary to classify the climatology of the each region, e.g. as classified by Koeppen (1936) or Trenwarthe and Horne (1980). This paper presents a method of classifying climate of the regions on the basis of the surface radiation behavior such that the results are very similar to the classification of Trenwarthe and Horne. The characteristics of the annual cycle of SRB components can then be investigated further, based on the climate classification of each region.
Wilber, Anne C.↗
How Does Mediterranean Basin's Atmosphere Become Weak Moisture Source During Negative Phase of NAO: Use of AIRS, AMSR, TOVS, & TRMM Satellite Datasets Over Last Two NAO Cycles to Examine Governing Controls on E-P
The Mediterranean Sea is a noted 'concentration" basin in that it almost continuously exhibits positive evaporation minus precipitation (E - P ) properties -- throughout the four seasons and from one year to the next. Nonetheless, according to the ECMWF Era-40 48-year (1958-2005) climate reanalysis dataset, for various phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when the pressure gradient between Portugal and Iceland becomes either very relaxed (large negative NAO-Index) or in transition (small positive or negative NAO-Index), the atmospheric moisture source properties of the basin become weak, at times even reversed for several months (i.e., negative E - P). This behavior poses numerous questions concerning how and why these events occur. Moreover, it begs the question of what it would take for the basin to reach its tipping point in which P would exceed E throughout the rainy season (some six months) on an annually persistent basis -- and the sea would possibly transform to a recurring "dilution" basin. This talk investigates these questions by: (1) establishing over a period from 1979 to present, based on detailed analyses of satellite retrieval products from a combination of NASA-AQUA, NOAA-LEO, NASA/JAXA Scatterometer, and NASA-TRMM platforms, plus additional specialized satellite data products and ancillary meteorological datasets, the actual observation-based behavior of E - P, (2) diagnosing the salient physical and meteorological mechanisms that lead to the weaker E - P events during the analysis period, partly based on analyzing surface and upper air data at discrete stations in the western and eastern Mediterranean -- while at the same time evaluating the quality of the ERA-40 data over this same time period, (3) conducting GCM and high-resolution regional modeling experiments to determine if perturbed but realistic meteorological background conditions could maintain Mediterranean as a "dilution" basin through the October to March rainy season on annually recurring basis, and (4) investigating how such conditions might modify important internal and external climatic processes known to be closely related to the dynamical, thermal, and hydrological properties of the basin (e.g., drought frequency over Iberian peninsula, rainfall accumulation within Sahel, alteration of Levantine branch of east-west aligned open thermohaline cell, and modification of warm-salty intermediate flow through Gibraltar straight into North Atlantic).
Smith, Eric A.↗
Office of Safety and Mission Assurance Review Report
This document summarizes questions and concerns raised during the 1999 IV&V Facility's Annual Review Presentation to the Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA). Recommendations are provided for issues and action items identified.
Source record↗
NASA Range Safety Annual Report 2007
As always, Range Safety has been involved in a number of exciting and challenging activities and events. Throughout the year, we have strived to meet our goal of protecting the public, the workforce, and property during range operations. During the past year, Range Safety was involved in the development, implementation, and support of range safety policy. Range Safety training curriculum development was completed this year and several courses were presented. Tailoring exercises concerning the Constellation Program were undertaken with representatives from the Constellation Program, the 45th Space Wing, and the Launch Constellation Range Safety Panel. Range Safety actively supported the Range Commanders Council and it subgroups and remained involved in updating policy related to flight safety systems and flight safety analysis. In addition, Range Safety supported the Space Shuttle Range Safety Panel and addressed policy concerning unmanned aircraft systems. Launch operations at Kennedy Space Center, the Eastern and Western ranges, Dryden Flight Research Center, and Wallops Flight Facility were addressed. Range Safety was also involved in the evaluation of a number of research and development efforts, including the space-based range (formerly STARS), the autonomous flight safety system, the enhanced flight termination system, and the joint advanced range safety system. Flight safety system challenges were evaluated. Range Safety's role in the Space Florida Customer Assistance Service Program for the Eastern Range was covered along with our support for the Space Florida Educational Balloon Release Program. We hope you have found the web-based format both accessible and easy to use. Anyone having questions or wishing to have an article included in the 2008 Range Safety Annual Report should contact Alan Dumont, the NASA Range Safety Program Manager located at the Kennedy Space Center, or Michael Dook at NASA Headquarters.
Dumont, Alan G.↗
Assessment of WRF (v 4.2.1) dynamically downscaled precipitation on subdaily and daily timescales over CONUS
Abstract. This study analyzes the quality of simulated historical precipitation across the contiguous United States (CONUS) in a 12 km Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.2.1 (WRF v 4.2.1)-based dynamical downscaling of the fifth-generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5). This work addresses the following questions. First, how well are the 3 and 24 h precipitation characteristics (diurnal and annual cycles, precipitation frequency, annual and seasonal mean and maximum precipitation, and distribution of seasonal maximum precipitation) represented in the downscaled simulation, compared to ERA5? And second, how does the performance of the simulated WRF precipitation vary across seasons, regions, and timescales? Performance is measured against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC) 4 km Stage IV and Oregon State University Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data on 3 and 24 h timescales, respectively. Our analysis suggests that the 12 km WRF exhibits biases typically found in other WRF simulations, including those at convection-permitting scales. In particular, WRF simulates both the timing and magnitude of the summer diurnal precipitation peak as well as ERA5 over most of the CONUS, except for a delayed diurnal peak over the Great Plains. As compared to ERA5, both the month and the magnitude of the precipitation peak annual cycle are remarkably improved in the downscaled WRF simulation. WRF slightly overestimates 3 and 24 h precipitation maximum over the CONUS, in contrast to ERA5, which generally underestimates these quantities mainly over the eastern half of the CONUS. Notably, WRF better captures the probability density distribution (PDF) of 3 and 24 h annual and seasonal maximum precipitation. WRF exhibits seasonally dependent precipitation biases across the CONUS, while ERA5's biases are relatively consistent year round over most of the CONUS. These results suggest that dynamical downscaling to a higher resolution improves upon some precipitation metrics but is susceptible to common regional climate model biases. Consequently, if used as input data for domain-specific models, we suggest moderate bias correction be applied to the dynamically downscaled product.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Procedure for generating global atmospheric engine emissions data from future supersonic transport aircraft. The 1990 high speed civil transport studies
The input for global atmospheric chemistry models was generated for baseline High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) configurations at Mach 1.6, 2.2, and 3.2. The input is supplied in the form of number of molecules of specific exhaust constituents injected into the atmosphere per year by latitude and by altitude (for 2-D codes). Seven exhaust constituents are currently supplied: NO, NO2, CO, CO2, H2O, SO2, and THC (Trace Hydrocarbons). An eighth input is also supplied, NO(x), the sum of NO and NO2. The number of molecules of a given constituent emitted per year is a function of the total fuel burned by a supersonic fleet and the emission index (EI) of the aircraft engine for the constituent in question. The EIs for an engine are supplied directly by the engine manufacturers. The annual fuel burn of a supersonic fleet is calculated from aircraft performance and economic criteria, both of which are strongly dependent on basic design parameters such as speed and range. The altitude and latitude distribution of the emission is determined based on 10 Intern. Air Transport Assoc. (IATA) regions chosen to define the worldwide route structure for future HSCT operations and the mission flight profiles.
Sohn, R. A.↗
Building fault detection and diagnostics: Achieved savings, and methods to evaluate algorithm performance
Fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) represents one of the most active areas of research and commercial product development in the buildings industry. This paper addresses two questions concerning FDD implementation and advancement 1) What are today's users of FDD saving and spending on the technology? 2) What methods and datasets can be used to evaluate and benchmark FDD algorithm performance? Relevant to the first question, 26 organizations that use FDD across a total 550 buildings and 97 M sf achieved median savings of 8%. Twenty-seven FDD users reported that the median base cost for FDD software, annual recurring software cost, and annual labor cost were $8, $2.7 and $8 per monitoring point, with a median implementation size of approximately 1300 points. To address the second question, this paper describes a systematic methodology for evaluating the performance of FDD algorithms, curates an initial test dataset of air handling unit (AHU) system faults, and completes a trial to demonstrate the evaluation process on three sample FDD algorithms. The work provided a first step toward a standard evaluation of different FDD technologies. Finally, it showed the test methodology is indeed scalable and repeatable, provided an understanding of the types of insights that can be gained from algorithm performance testing, and highlighted the priorities for further expanding the test dataset.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Remotely Sensed Northern Vegetation Response to Changing Climate: Growing Season and Productivity Perspective
Vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of seasonal total gross primary productivity of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts on growing season and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we first investigate how vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthesis state are evolved and how such components contribute on inter-annual variation of seasonal total gross primary productivity. Furthermore, seasonally different response of northern vegetation to changing temperature and water availability is also investigated. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed data to extract larger scale growing season metrics (growing season start, end and duration) and productivity (i.e., growing season summed vegetation index, GSSVI) for answering these questions. We find that regionally diverged growing season shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity inter-annual variability and trend. Also seasonally different response of vegetation gives different view of spatially varying interaction between vegetation and climate. These results highlight spatially and temporally varying vegetation dynamics and are reflective of biome-specific responses of northern vegetation to changing climate.
Climate↗
Automated point dendrometer, soil moisture and temperature, and meteorological variables datasets, Oct 2024 – Nov 2025, G.A. Pearson Natural Area, Flagstaff, AZ, USA
This data package includes parsed, cleaned, and calibrated data from 48 TOMST automated point dendrometers, 48 TOMST 15 cm soil moisture sensors, and 12 TOMST 30 cm soil moisture sensors. The point dendrometers were cleaned with the “dendRoAnalyst” package in RStudio. The soil sensors were cleaned and calibrated for volumetric water content (VWC) with the “myClim” package in RStudio using the soil texture of the site (sandy clay loam). Additionally, this data package also includes raw data from 2 METER weather stations. Dendrometers and soil sensors have both their sensor ID, as well as the ID for the specific tree they were instrumented on at the G.A. Pearson Natural Area (GPNA) site and their experimental group. The purpose of these data is to understand how ponderosa pine trees in restored (thinned and burned) vs. unrestored (no treatment) areas are responding to drought and seasonal precipitation. These data use radial growth and soil moisture data to answer the following question: how are active season length, growth on different time scales (weekly, monthly, seasonally, and annually), growth during dry periods and after precipitation events, and environmental and biological drivers of radial growth different between restored versus unrestored areas?
Air temperature↗