Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “anomaly prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Systems Modeling to Implement Integrated System Health Management Capability

ISHM capability includes: detection of anomalies, diagnosis of causes of anomalies, prediction of future anomalies, and user interfaces that enable integrated awareness (past, present, and future) by users. This is achieved by focused management of data, information and knowledge (DIaK) that will likely be distributed across networks. Management of DIaK implies storage, sharing (timely availability), maintaining, evolving, and processing. Processing of DIaK encapsulates strategies, methodologies, algorithms, etc. focused on achieving high ISHM Functional Capability Level (FCL). High FCL means a high degree of success in detecting anomalies, diagnosing causes, predicting future anomalies, and enabling health integrated awareness by the user. A model that enables ISHM capability, and hence, DIaK management, is denominated the ISHM Model of the System (IMS). We describe aspects of the IMS that focus on processing of DIaK. Strategies, methodologies, and algorithms require proper context. We describe an approach to define and use contexts, implementation in an object-oriented software environment (G2), and validation using actual test data from a methane thruster test program at NASA SSC. Context is linked to existence of relationships among elements of a system. For example, the context to use a strategy to detect leak is to identify closed subsystems (e.g. bounded by closed valves and by tanks) that include pressure sensors, and check if the pressure is changing. We call these subsystems Pressurizable Subsystems. If pressure changes are detected, then all members of the closed subsystem become suspect of leakage. In this case, the context is defined by identifying a subsystem that is suitable for applying a strategy. Contexts are defined in many ways. Often, a context is defined by relationships of function (e.g. liquid flow, maintaining pressure, etc.), form (e.g. part of the same component, connected to other components, etc.), or space (e.g. physically close, touching the same common element, etc.). The context might be defined dynamically (if conditions for the context appear and disappear dynamically) or statically. Although this approach is akin to case-based reasoning, we are implementing it using a software environment that embodies tools to define and manage relationships (of any nature) among objects in a very intuitive manner. Context for higher level inferences (that use detected anomalies or events), primarily for diagnosis and prognosis, are related to causal relationships. This is useful to develop root-cause analysis trees showing an event linked to its possible causes and effects. The innovation pertaining to RCA trees encompasses use of previously defined subsystems as well as individual elements in the tree. This approach allows more powerful implementations of RCA capability in object-oriented environments. For example, if a pressurizable subsystem is leaking, its root-cause representation within an RCA tree will show that the cause is that all elements of that subsystem are suspect of leak. Such a tree would apply to all instances of leak-events detected and all elements in all pressurizable subsystems in the system. Example subsystems in our environment to build IMS include: Pressurizable Subsystem, Fluid-Fill Subsystem, Flow-Thru-Valve Subsystem, and Fluid Supply Subsystem. The software environment for IMS is designed to potentially allow definition of any relationship suitable to create a context to achieve ISHM capability.

Figueroa, Jorge F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Near Real-Time Optimal Prediction of Adverse Events in Aviation Data

The prediction of anomalies or adverse events is a challenging task, and there are a variety of methods which can be used to address the problem. In this paper, we demonstrate how to recast the anomaly prediction problem into a form whose solution is accessible as a level-crossing prediction problem. The level-crossing prediction problem has an elegant, optimal, yet untested solution under certain technical constraints, and only when the appropriate modeling assumptions are made. As such, we will thoroughly investigate the resilience of these modeling assumptions, and show how they affect final performance. Finally, the predictive capability of this method will be assessed by quantitative means, using both validation and test data containing anomalies or adverse events from real aviation data sets that have previously been identified as operationally significant by domain experts. It will be shown that the formulation proposed yields a lower false alarm rate on average than competing methods based on similarly advanced concepts, and a higher correct detection rate than a standard method based upon exceedances that is commonly used for prediction.

Martin, Rodney Alexander↗
NASA NTRS2007

ISHM Anomaly Lexicon for Rocket Test

Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) is a comprehensive capability. An ISHM system must detect anomalies, identify causes of such anomalies, predict future anomalies, help identify consequences of anomalies for example, suggested mitigation steps. The system should also provide users with appropriate navigation tools to facilitate the flow of information into and out of the ISHM system. Central to the ability of the ISHM to detect anomalies is a clearly defined catalog of anomalies. Further, this lexicon of anomalies must be organized in ways that make it accessible to a suite of tools used to manage the data, information and knowledge (DIaK) associated with a system. In particular, it is critical to ensure that there is optimal mapping between target anomalies and the algorithms associated with their detection. During the early development of our ISHM architecture and approach, it became clear that a lexicon of anomalies would be important to the development of critical anomaly detection algorithms. In our work in the rocket engine test environment at John C. Stennis Space Center, we have access to a repository of discrepancy reports (DRs) that are generated in response to squawks identified during post-test data analysis. The DR is the tool used to document anomalies and the methods used to resolve the issue. These DRs have been generated for many different tests and for all test stands. The result is that they represent a comprehensive summary of the anomalies associated with rocket engine testing. Fig. 1 illustrates some of the data that can be extracted from a DR. Such information includes affected transducer channels, narrative description of the observed anomaly, and the steps used to correct the problem. The primary goal of the anomaly lexicon development efforts we have undertaken is to create a lexicon that could be used in support of an associated health assessment database system (HADS) co-development effort. There are a number of significant byproducts of the anomaly lexicon compilation effort. For example, (1) Allows determination of the frequency distribution of anomalies to help identify those with the potential for high return on investment if included in automated detection as part of an ISHM system, (2) Availability of a regular lexicon could provide the base anomaly name choices to help maintain consistency in the DR collection process, and (3) Although developed for the rocket engine test environment, most of the anomalies are not specific to rocket testing, and thus can be reused in other applications.

Schmalzel, John L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Future Radiation Damage in Space due to South Atlantic Anomaly

Predictions of radiation damage for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites now use semi-empirical models developed from prior satellite data. From these models it is clear that the low field strength of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) controls where the maximum radiation damage occurs. One may make an estimate of future radiation damage to LEO spacecraft if one can predict the future of the SAA. Although reliable maps of the geomagnetic field strength and its secular change have only been made in the last few decades, certain geomagnetic observatories in South America and Africa have recorded the geomagnetic field for a much longer time. These observatories show that the present geomagnetic field change has persisted for more than 100 years. In spite of the fact that a few observatories have shown sudden changes in secular variation, those around the SAA have shown a stable secular variation. Assuming that this will continue for the next 50 to 100 years one can show that the SAA will expand to cover most of the South Atlantic Ocean and will become much weaker. This will greatly intensify the radiation hazard in LEO, put significant new limitations on radiation-hardened hardware, severely restrict the length of time that humans can remain in orbit, and materially change the configuration of the radiation belts.

Heirtzler, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Oceanwide gravity anomalies from Geos-3, Seasat and Geosat altimeter data

Three kinds of satellite altimeter data have been combined, along with 5 x 5 arcmin bathymetric data, to calculate a 0.125 deg ocean wide gridded set of 2.3 x 10 exp 6 free-air gravity anomalies. The procedure used was least squares collocation that yields the predicted anomaly and standard deviation. The value of including the bathymetric data was shown in a test around the Dowd Seamount where the root mean square (rms) difference between ship gravity measurements decreased from +/- 40 mgal to +/- 20 mgal when the bathymetry was included. Comparisons between the predicted anomalies and ship gravity data is described in three cases. In the Banda Sea the rms differences were +/- 20 mgal for two lines. In the South Atlantic rms differences over lines of 2000 km in length were +/- 7 mgal. For cruise data in the Antarctica region the discrepancies were +/- 12 mgal. Comparisons of anomalies derived from the Geosat geodetic mission data by Marks and McAdoo (1992) with ship dta gave differences of +/- 6 mgal showing the value of the much denser Geosat geodetic mission altimeter data.

Rapp, Richard H.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Network-Capable Application Process and Wireless Intelligent Sensors for ISHM

Intelligent sensor technology and systems are increasingly becoming attractive means to serve as frameworks for intelligent rocket test facilities with embedded intelligent sensor elements, distributed data acquisition elements, and onboard data acquisition elements. Networked intelligent processors enable users and systems integrators to automatically configure their measurement automation systems for analog sensors. NASA and leading sensor vendors are working together to apply the IEEE 1451 standard for adding plug-and-play capabilities for wireless analog transducers through the use of a Transducer Electronic Data Sheet (TEDS) in order to simplify sensor setup, use, and maintenance, to automatically obtain calibration data, and to eliminate manual data entry and error. A TEDS contains the critical information needed by an instrument or measurement system to identify, characterize, interface, and properly use the signal from an analog sensor. A TEDS is deployed for a sensor in one of two ways. First, the TEDS can reside in embedded, nonvolatile memory (typically flash memory) within the intelligent processor. Second, a virtual TEDS can exist as a separate file, downloadable from the Internet. This concept of virtual TEDS extends the benefits of the standardized TEDS to legacy sensors and applications where the embedded memory is not available. An HTML-based user interface provides a visual tool to interface with those distributed sensors that a TEDS is associated with, to automate the sensor management process. Implementing and deploying the IEEE 1451.1-based Network-Capable Application Process (NCAP) can achieve support for intelligent process in Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) for the purpose of monitoring, detection of anomalies, diagnosis of causes of anomalies, prediction of future anomalies, mitigation to maintain operability, and integrated awareness of system health by the operator. It can also support local data collection and storage. This invention enables wide-area sensing and employs numerous globally distributed sensing devices that observe the physical world through the existing sensor network. This innovation enables distributed storage, distributed processing, distributed intelligence, and the availability of DiaK (Data, Information, and Knowledge) to any element as needed. It also enables the simultaneous execution of multiple processes, and represents models that contribute to the determination of the condition and health of each element in the system. The NCAP (intelligent process) can configure data-collection and filtering processes in reaction to sensed data, allowing it to decide when and how to adapt collection and processing with regard to sophisticated analysis of data derived from multiple sensors. The user will be able to view the sensing device network as a single unit that supports a high-level query language. Each query would be able to operate over data collected from across the global sensor network just as a search query encompasses millions of Web pages. The sensor web can preserve ubiquitous information access between the querier and the queried data. Pervasive monitoring of the physical world raises significant data and privacy concerns. This innovation enables different authorities to control portions of the sensing infrastructure, and sensor service authors may wish to compose services across authority boundaries.

Figueroa, Fernando↗
NASA NTRS1986

Spherical harmonic expansions of the Earth's gravitational potential to degree 360 using 30' mean anomalies

Two potential coefficient fields that are complete to degree and order 360 have been computed. One field (OSU86E) excludes geophysically predicted anomalies while the other (OSU86F) includes such anomalies. These fields were computed using a set of 30' mean gravity anomalies derived from satellite altimetry in the ocean areas and from land measurements in North America, Europe, Australia, Japan and a few other areas. Where no 30' data existed, 1 deg x 1 deg mean anomaly estimates were used if available. No rigorous combination of satellite and terrestrial data was carried out. Instead advantage was taken of the adjusted anomalies and potential coefficients from a rigorous combination of the GEML2' potential coefficient set and 1 deg x 1 deg mean gravity anomalies. The two new fields were computed using a quadrature procedure with de-smoothing factors. The spectra of the new fields agree well with the spectra of the fields with 1 deg x 1 deg data out to degree 180. Above degree 180 the new fields have more power. The fields have been tested through comparison of Doppler station geoid undulations with undulations from various geopotential models. The agreement between the two types of undulations is approximately + or - 1.6 m. The use of a 360 field over a 180 field does not significantly improve the comparison. Instead it allows the comparison to be done at some stations where high frequency effects are important. In addition maps made in areas of high frequency information (such as trench areas) clearly reveal the signal in the new fields from degree 181 to 360.

Rapp, Richard H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigating seasonal ENSO forecast amplitude calibration for GEOS-S2S-2

The GEOS-S2S-2 is a global coupled model and assimilation system, encompassing many aspects of the Earth climate system. This project looked at seasonal (nine-month) ensemble forecasts, over the period from 1982 through the present. We explored and validated a forecast amplitude correction technique used by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), of which GEOS is a member, for Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly predictions. The method relies on deriving a set of correction factors based on the standard deviations of hindcast and observed SST anomalies. This algorithm was implemented at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and applied to the GEOS-S2S-2 Niño 3.4 hindcasts. In general, the correction reduced the forecast amplitude. This improved the quality of the forecasts when measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) of the ensemble mean forecast. RMSE decreased for most initialization months and forecast leads. The correction had a larger impact on seasons with strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events than neutral seasons. The effects of the correction on the ensemble characteristics were also examined, and a variation of the algorithm was proposed that preserves the ensemble spread. The outcome of this project is a tool that can be used to calibrate GEOS-S2S-2 ENSO forecasts and potentially improve the precision of multi-model El Niño outlooks.

ENSO↗
NASA NTRS1974

How to test gravitation theories by means of gravitational-wave measurements

Gravitational-wave experiments are a potentially powerful tool for testing gravitation theories. Most theories in the literature predict rather different polarization properties for gravitational waves than are predicted by general relativity; and many theories predict anomalies in the propagation speeds of gravitational waves.

Thorne, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Night and Day: The Opacity of Clouds Measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA)

The Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) [l] on the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft ranged to clouds over the course of nearly two Mars years [2] using an active laser ranging system. While ranging to the surface, the instrument was also able to measure the product of the surface reflectivity with the two-way atmospheric transmission at 1064 nm. Furthermore, the reflectivity has now been mapped over seasonal cycles using the passive radiometric capability built into MOLA [3]. Combining these measurements, the column opacity may be inferred. MOLA uniquely provides these measurements both night and day. This study examines the pronounced nighttime opacity of the aphelion season tropical water ice clouds, and the indiscernibly low opacity of the southern polar winter clouds. The water ice clouds (Figure 1) do not themselves trigger the altimeter but have measured opacities tau > 1.5 and are temporally and spatially correlated with temperature anomalies predicted by a Mars Global Circulation Model (MGCM) that incorporates cloud radiative effects [4]. The south polar CO2 ice clouds trigger the altimeter with a very high backscatter cross-section over a thickness of 3-9 m and are vertically dispersed over several km, but their total column opacities lie well below the MOLA measurement limit of tau = 0.7. These clouds correspond to regions of supercooled atmosphere that may form either very large specularly reflecting particles [2] or very compact, dense concentrations (>5x10(exp 6)/cu m) of 100-p particles

Neumann, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Initial Results from the GEM Challenge on the Spacecraft Surface Charging Environment

Spacecraft surface charging during geomagnetically disturbed times is one of the most important causes of satellite anomalies. Predicting the surface charging environment is one prevalent task of the geospace environment models. Therefore, the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Focus Group "Inner Magnetosphere Crossenergy/Population Interactions" initiated a communitywide challenge study to assess the capability of several inner magnetosphere ring current models in determining surface charging environment for the Van Allen Probes orbits during the 17 March 2013 storm event. The integrated electron flux between 10 and 50 keV is used as the metrics. Various skill scores are applied to quantitatively measure the modeling performance against observations. Results indicate that no model consistently perform the best in all of the skill scores or for both satellites. We find that from these simulations the ring current model with observational flux boundary condition and Weimer electric potential driver generally reproduces the most realistic flux level around the spacecraft. A simple and weaker VollandStern electric field is not capable of effectively transporting the same plasma at the boundary toward the Earth. On the other hand, if the ring current model solves the electric field selfconsistently and obtains similar strength and pattern in the equatorial plane as the Weimer model, the boundary condition plays another crucial role in determining the electron flux level in the inner region. When the boundary flux spectra based on magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model/empirical model deviate from the shape or magnitude of the observed distribution function, the simulation produces poor skill scores along Van Allen Probes orbits.

Yu, Yiqun↗
NASA NTRS2012

Bootstrap Prediction Intervals in Non-Parametric Regression with Applications to Anomaly Detection

Prediction intervals provide a measure of the probable interval in which the outputs of a regression model can be expected to occur. Subsequently, these prediction intervals can be used to determine if the observed output is anomalous or not, conditioned on the input. In this paper, a procedure for determining prediction intervals for outputs of nonparametric regression models using bootstrap methods is proposed. Bootstrap methods allow for a non-parametric approach to computing prediction intervals with no specific assumptions about the sampling distribution of the noise or the data. The asymptotic fidelity of the proposed prediction intervals is theoretically proved. Subsequently, the validity of the bootstrap based prediction intervals is illustrated via simulations. Finally, the bootstrap prediction intervals are applied to the problem of anomaly detection on aviation data.

Kumar, Sricharan↗
NASA NTRS2010

Monitoring System for Storm Readiness and Recovery of Test Facilities: Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) Approach

Severe weather events are likely occurrences on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. It is important to rapidly diagnose and mitigate the effects of storms on Stennis Space Center's rocket engine test complex to avoid delays to critical test article programs, reduce costs, and maintain safety. An Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) approach and technologies are employed to integrate environmental (weather) monitoring, structural modeling, and the suite of available facility instrumentation to provide information for readiness before storms, rapid initial damage assessment to guide mitigation planning, and then support on-going assurance as repairs are effected and finally support recertification. The system is denominated Katrina Storm Monitoring System (KStorMS). Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) describes a comprehensive set of capabilities that provide insight into the behavior the health of a system. Knowing the status of a system allows decision makers to effectively plan and execute their mission. For example, early insight into component degradation and impending failures provides more time to develop work around strategies and more effectively plan for maintenance. Failures of system elements generally occur over time. Information extracted from sensor data, combined with system-wide knowledge bases and methods for information extraction and fusion, inference, and decision making, can be used to detect incipient failures. If failures do occur, it is critical to detect and isolate them, and suggest an appropriate course of action. ISHM enables determining the condition (health) of every element in a complex system-of-systems or SoS (detect anomalies, diagnose causes, predict future anomalies), and provide data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) to control systems for safe and effective operation. ISHM capability is achieved by using a wide range of technologies that enable anomaly detection, diagnostics, prognostics, and advise for control: (1) anomaly detection algorithms and strategies, (2) fusion of DIaK for anomaly detection (model-based, numerical, statistical, empirical, expert-based, qualitative, etc.), (3) diagnostics/prognostics strategies and methods, (4) user interface, (5) advanced control strategies, (6) integration architectures/frameworks, (7) embedding of intelligence. Many of these technologies are mature, and they are being used in the KStorMS. The paper will describe the design, implementation, and operation of the KStorMS; and discuss further evolution to support other needs such as condition-based maintenance (CBM).

Figueroa, Fernando↗
NASA NTRS1982

Improved global prediction of 300 nautical mile mean free air anomalies

Current procedures used for the global prediction of 300nm mean anomalies starting from known values of 1 deg by 1 deg mean anomalies yield unreasonable prediction results when applied to 300nm blocks which have a rapidly varying gravity anomaly field and which contain relatively few observed 60nm blocks. Improvement of overall 300nm anomaly prediction is first achieved by using area-weighted as opposed to unweighted averaging of the 25 generated 60nm mean anomalies inside the 300nm block. Then, improvement of prediction over rough 300nm blocks is realized through the use of fully known 1 deg by 1 deg mean elevations, taking advantage of the correlation that locally exists between 60nm mean anomalies and 60nm mean elevations inside the 300nm block. An improved prediction model which adapts itself to the roughness of the local anomaly field is found to be the model of Least Squares Collocation with systematic parameters, the systematic parameter being the slope b which is a type of Bouguer slope expressing the correlation that locally exists between 60nm mean anomalies and 60nm mean elevations.

Cruz, J. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1972

The formation and analysis of a 5 deg equal area block terrestrial gravity field

A set of 23,355 1 degree x 1 degree mean free air anomalies were used to predict a set of 5 degree equal area anomalies and their standard errors. Using the 1 degree data incorporating geophysically predicted values of ACIC, 1283 5 degree blocks were computed. Excluding the geophysically predicted anomalies 1249 blocks were computed. The 1 degree data were also used to compute covariance functions and the equatorial gravity and flattening implied by this data. The predicted anomalies were supplemented by model anomalies to form a complete 1654 global anomaly field. These data were used in a weighted least squares to determine potential coefficients to degree 15, and in a summation type formulation to determine potential coefficients to degree 25. These potential coefficients sets are compared to recent satellite determinations.

Rapp, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Integrated System Health Management Development Toolkit

This software toolkit is designed to model complex systems for the implementation of embedded Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) capability, which focuses on determining the condition (health) of every element in a complex system (detect anomalies, diagnose causes, and predict future anomalies), and to provide data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) to control systems for safe and effective operation.

Figueroa, Jorge↗
NASA NTRS2008

Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) for Test Stand and J-2X Engine: Core Implementation

ISHM capability enables a system to detect anomalies, determine causes and effects, predict future anomalies, and provides an integrated awareness of the health of the system to users (operators, customers, management, etc.). NASA Stennis Space Center, NASA Ames Research Center, and Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne have implemented a core ISHM capability that encompasses the A1 Test Stand and the J-2X Engine. The implementation incorporates all aspects of ISHM; from anomaly detection (e.g. leaks) to root-cause-analysis based on failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), to a user interface for an integrated visualization of the health of the system (Test Stand and Engine). The implementation provides a low functional capability level (FCL) in that it is populated with few algorithms and approaches for anomaly detection, and root-cause trees from a limited FMEA effort. However, it is a demonstration of a credible ISHM capability, and it is inherently designed for continuous and systematic augmentation of the capability. The ISHM capability is grounded on an integrating software environment used to create an ISHM model of the system. The ISHM model follows an object-oriented approach: includes all elements of the system (from schematics) and provides for compartmentalized storage of information associated with each element. For instance, a sensor object contains a transducer electronic data sheet (TEDS) with information that might be used by algorithms and approaches for anomaly detection, diagnostics, etc. Similarly, a component, such as a tank, contains a Component Electronic Data Sheet (CEDS). Each element also includes a Health Electronic Data Sheet (HEDS) that contains health-related information such as anomalies and health state. Some practical aspects of the implementation include: (1) near real-time data flow from the test stand data acquisition system through the ISHM model, for near real-time detection of anomalies and diagnostics, (2) insertion of the J-2X predictive model providing predicted sensor values for comparison with measured values and use in anomaly detection and diagnostics, and (3) insertion of third-party anomaly detection algorithms into the integrated ISHM model.

Figueroa, Jorge F.↗
NASA NTRS1979

The magnetic anomaly model of the Jovian magnetosphere - Predictions for Voyager

The magnetic anomaly model, in which the anomalously weak magnetic field region in the northern hemisphere of Jupiter influences the outer Jovian magnetosphere by one or more plasma interaction processes, has been put forth to account for the various observed Jovian magnetospheric phenomena that show evidence of Jovian longitudinal asymmetry or planetary spin periodicity. From this model, normalized by empirical fitting to Pioneer 10 and 11 flyby data and to ground-based radio data, a series of predictions are made that are subject to test by the forthcoming flybys of Jupiter by Voyagers 1 and 2. These predictions cover: (1) the longitude range and time intervals of enhanced interaction between Io (and possibly Europa) and Jupiter's ionosphere, (2) plasma, energetic particle, and magnetic field periodicities in the outer magnetosphere, and (3) the sub-spacecraft System III longitude and the time, modulo 10 hours, of the first and subsequent magnetopause crossings.

Dessler, A. J.↗