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Results for “anticipated baseline approach”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel

A recent study claims that corn used for ethanol should not be considered to be inherently biogenically carbon-neutral because not all that corn was grown additional to the level otherwise. By assessing the extent of carbon neutrality of corn for ethanol using the reference point baseline approach and historical data that study concluded that the carbon intensity of US corn ethanol is 27% higher than that of gasoline. We develop a framework to determine the carbon neutrality of corn for ethanol by assessing the additional carbon uptake by crops using an anticipated baseline approach. We also apply this framework to determine the additional corn produced for ethanol and include the direct life cycle carbon emissions of only that portion of corn in the direct life cycle carbon intensity of corn ethanol. We implement this framework by integrating an economic model of the agricultural sector in the USA with a biogenic carbon model and life cycle analysis to quantify biogenic carbon uptake and direct life cycle emissions with and without corn ethanol expansion over the 2007–2027 period. We find that the combined biogenic carbon emissions and direct life cycle carbon emission intensity of corn ethanol (not including indirect land use related emissions) is 21% lower than gasoline. In conclusion, the lower value of this carbon intensity of corn ethanol compared with gasoline is robust to a wide range of parametric assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

BEPAM Model Code and CABBI Simulation Results for "Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel"

This dataset consists of various input data that are used in the GAMS model. All the data are in the format of .inc which can be read within GAMS or Notepad. Main data sources include: acreage data (acre), crop budget data ($/acre), crop yield data (e.g. bushel/acre), Soil carbon sequestration data (KgCO2/ha/yr). Model details can be found in the "Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel" and GAMS model package. ## File Description (1) GAMS Model.zip: This includes all the input files and scripts for running the model (2) Table*.csv: These files include the data from the tables in the manuscript (3) Figure2_3_4.csv: This contains the data used to create the figures in the manuscript (4) BaselineResults.csv: This includes a summary of the model results. (5) SensitivityResults_*.csv: Model results from the various sensitivity analyses performed (6) LUC_emission.csv: land use change emissions by crop reporting district for changes of pasturelands to annual crops.

Anticipated baseline approach↗

Regime Characterization of Offshore Wind Resource Using Unsupervised Learning

Predictability of wind resource conditions is critical for offshore wind design and operations. While many studies of extreme wind conditions focus on specific events such as low-level jets or ramps, these rely on threshold definitions that limit generality. Here we present a data-driven framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), self-organizing maps (SOM), and k-means clustering to classify wind resource conditions as typical and anomalous from climatological data. Anomalies are defined not by fixed thresholds but by flagging samples located far from SOM node centers inside the baseline SOM structure. This reframes extremes as rare ebents and hence, likely difficult to anticipate by numerical weather prediction models. We applied this approach to 23 years (2000–2022) of hourly profiles from the NOW-23 hindcast model at the Humboldt Wind Energy Area. Classification is conducted on a feature space consisting of 10 m wind speed and direction, bulk shear and veer across 30–270 m, and a low-level jet index. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through PC. A 2 × 3 OM lattice trained on the PCA vectors identified six baseline regimes spanning weak to strong flow states. High quantization-error profiles are identified and re-clustered into four anomalous regimes. The baseline regimes exhibited clear seasonal and diurnal cycles. Meanwhile, the anomalous regimes represented <10 % of all hours but showed distinct combinations of speed, shear, and veer, when compared to the baseline regimes. Anomalous regimes are typically short-lived (~few hours), yet their transitions can lead to hub-height wind changes of −18 to +9 m s -1 . For a representative 15 MW turbine, these shifts imply rapid swings in capacity factor from near-full output to negligible generation. Validation with lidar buoy data showed 51% agreement in SOM labels across ~6,000 overlapping hours, with most mismatches confined to adjacent speed classes. HRRR comparisons further revealed that anomalous regimes were disproportionately associated with forecast biases exceeding 5 m s -1 . Together, these results reframe extremes in offshore wind from absolute maxima or minima to weather states that are difficult to anticipate from models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Multiple-objective Reinforcement Learning for Inverse Design and Identification

The aim of inverse chemical design is to develop new molecules with given optimized molecular properties or objectives. Recently, generative deep learning (DL) networks are considered as the state-of-the-art in inverse chemical design and have achieved early success in generating molecular structures with desired properties in the pharmaceutical and material chemistry fields. However, satisfying a large number (> 10 objectives) of molecular objectives is a limitation of current generative models. To improve the model’s ability to handle a large number of molecule design objectives, we developed a Reinforcement Learning (RL) based generative framework to optimize chemical molecule generation. Our use of Curriculum Learning (CL) to fine-tune the pre-trained generative network allowed the model to satisfy up to 21 objectives and increase the generative network’s robustness. The experiments show that the proposed multiple-objective RL-based generative model can correctly identify unknown molecules with an 83% to 100% success rate, compared to the baseline approach of 0%. Additionally, this proposed generative model is not limited to just chemistry research challenges; we anticipate that problems that utilize RL with multiple objectives will benefit from this framework.

reinforcement learning, generative model, inverse ↗

Space Station battery system design and development

The Space Station Electric Power System will rely on nickel-hydrogen batteries in its photovoltaic power subsystem for energy storage to support eclipse and contingency operations. These 81-Ah batteries will be designed for a 5-year life capability and are configured as orbital replaceable units (ORUs), permitting replacement of worn-out batteries over the anticipated 30-year Station life. This paper describes the baseline design and the development plans for the battery assemblies, the battery ORUs and the battery system. Key elements reviewed are the cells, mechanical and thermal design of the assembly, the ORU approach and interfaces, and the electrical design of the battery system. The anticipated operational approach is discussed, covering expected performance as well as the processor-controlled charge management and discharge load allocation techniques. Development plans cover verification of materials, cells, assemblies and ORUs, as well as system-level test and analyses.

Haas, R. J.↗

Establishment of terrestrial reference frames by new observational techniques

It is anticipated that terrestrial reference systems for geodynamics studies which include adopted plate motion models will be introduced for the analysis of both LAGEOS satellite and very long baseline interferometry ranging data. One of the possible approaches involves adjustment of ground station coordinates in conjunction with solutions for Universal Time 1 (UT1) and polar motions as functions of time. Another method uses principal value decomposition to reduce the number of degrees of freedom being solved for by three. In a third alternative, the values of UT1 and polar motion derived from the available data by means of the initial set of coordinates are kept fixed, and an appropriate block of data is reanalyzed using the previously determined values of UT1 and polar motion so that a new set of station coordinates can be derived.

Bender, P. L.↗

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An automated calibration laboratory for flight research instrumentation: Requirements and a proposed design approach

NASA's Dryden Flight Research Facility (Ames-Dryden), operates a diverse fleet of research aircraft which are heavily instrumented to provide both real time data for in-flight monitoring and recorded data for postflight analysis. Ames-Dryden's existing automated calibration (AUTOCAL) laboratory is a computerized facility which tests aircraft sensors to certify accuracy for anticipated harsh flight environments. Recently, a major AUTOCAL lab upgrade was initiated; the goal of this modernization is to enhance productivity and improve configuration management for both software and test data. The new system will have multiple testing stations employing distributed processing linked by a local area network to a centralized database. The baseline requirements for the new AUTOCAL lab and the design approach being taken for its mechanization are described.

Oneill-Rood, Nora↗

An automated calibration laboratory - Requirements and design approach

NASA's Dryden Flight Research Facility (Ames-Dryden), operates a diverse fleet of research aircraft which are heavily instrumented to provide both real time data for in-flight monitoring and recorded data for postflight analysis. Ames-Dryden's existing automated calibration (AUTOCAL) laboratory is a computerized facility which tests aircraft sensors to certify accuracy for anticipated harsh flight environments. Recently, a major AUTOCAL lab upgrade was initiated; the goal of this modernization is to enhance productivity and improve configuration management for both software and test data. The new system will have multiple testing stations employing distributed processing linked by a local area network to a centralized database. The baseline requirements for the new AUTOCAL lab and the design approach being taken for its mechanization are described.

O'Neil-Rood, Nora↗

Materials and Process Activities for NASA's Composite Crew Module

In January 2007, the NASA Administrator and Associate Administrator for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate chartered the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to design, build, and test a full-scale Composite Crew Module (CCM). The overall goal of the CCM project was to develop a team from the NASA family with hands-on experience in composite design, manufacturing, and testing in anticipation of future space exploration systems being made of composite materials. The CCM project was planned to run concurrently with the Orion project s baseline metallic design within the Constellation Program so that features could be compared and discussed without inducing risk to the overall Program. The materials and process activities were prioritized based on a rapid prototype approach. This approach focused developmental activities on design details with greater risk and uncertainty, such as out-of-autoclave joining, over some of the more traditional lamina and laminate building block levels. While process development and associated building block testing were performed, several anomalies were still observed at the full-scale level due to interactions between process robustness and manufacturing scale-up. This paper describes the process anomalies that were encountered during the CCM development and the subsequent root cause investigations that led to the final design solutions. These investigations highlight the importance of full-scale developmental work early in the schedule of a complex composite design/build project.

Polis, Daniel L.↗

Advanced technologies applied to reduce the operating costs of small commuter transport aircraft

The application of new aerodynamic, structural, and propulsion technologies to a specified baseline commuter aircraft is studied. The assessment models can be used on a desktop calculator and include a sizing program, operating cost program, and passenger ride qualities model. Evaluation is done with a step-by-step approach and is applied to range, number and type of engines, structure, wing selection, and configuration. A 40 percent direct operating cost saving is anticipated compared to current well established commuter aircraft.

Masefield, O.↗

Phase I Closeout Report: Invoking Artificial Neural Networks to Measure Insider Threat Mitigation

Researchers from Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and the University of Texas at Austin (UT) conducted this study to explore the effectiveness of commercial artificial neural network (ANN) software to improve insider threat detection and mitigation (ITDM). This study hypothesized that ANNs could be "trainee to learn patterns of organizational behaviors, detect off-normal (or anomalous) deviations from these patterns, and alert when certain types, frequencies, or quantities of deviations emerge. The ReconaSense ANN system was installed at UT's Nuclear Engineering Teaching Laboratory (NETL) and collected 13,653 access control data points and 694 intrusion sensor data points over a three-month period. Preliminary analysis of this baseline data demonstrated regularized patterns of life in the facility, and that off-normal behaviors are detectable under certain situations -- even for a facility with anticipated highly non-routine, operational behaviors. Completion of this pilot study demonstrated how the ReconaSense ANN could be used to identify expected operational patterns and detect unexpected anomalous behaviors in support of a data-analytic approach to ITDM. While additional studies are needed to fully understand and characterize this system, the results of this initial study are overall very promising for demonstrating a new framework for ITDM utilizing ANNs and data analysis techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Determining spacecraft angular position with Delta VLBI - The Voyager demonstration

A demonstration of a new VLBI-based radio metric data type for interplanetary navigation has been conducted using the Voyager spacecraft on their approach to Saturn. Pseudo-range measurements from stations on intercontinental baselines were employed, in conjunction with interferometric observations of quasars, to obtain a precise measure of the spacecraft angular position. In addition to its high accuracy this technique requires significantly less station time than conventional range and Doppler and can be used in a downlink only mode. The paper describes the data type, acquisition system, and processing procedures. Anticipated measurement accuracy is established by analysis of various system error sources. Results obtained from Voyager observations are given to show that the system performance is in accordance with expectations.

Border, J. S.↗

Composite Crew Module: Primary Structure

In January 2007, the NASA Administrator and Associate Administrator for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate chartered the NASA Engineering and Safety Center to design, build, and test a full-scale crew module primary structure, using carbon fiber reinforced epoxy based composite materials. The overall goal of the Composite Crew Module project was to develop a team from the NASA family with hands-on experience in composite design, manufacturing, and testing in anticipation of future space exploration systems being made of composite materials. The CCM project was planned to run concurrently with the Orion project's baseline metallic design within the Constellation Program so that features could be compared and discussed without inducing risk to the overall Program. This report discusses the project management aspects of the project including team organization, decision making, independent technical reviews, and cost and schedule management approach.

Kirsch, Michael T.↗

First Very Long Baseline Interferometry Detections at 870μm

The first very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) detections at 870$\mu$m wavelength (345$\,$GHz frequency) are reported, achieving the highest diffraction-limited angular resolution yet obtained from the surface of the Earth, and the highest-frequency example of the VLBI technique to date. These include strong detections for multiple sources observed on inter-continental baselines between telescopes in Chile, Hawaii, and Spain, obtained during observations in October 2018. The longest-baseline detections approach 11$\,$G$\lambda$ corresponding to an angular resolution, or fringe spacing, of 19$\mu$as. The Allan deviation of the visibility phase at 870$\mu$m is comparable to that at 1.3$\,$mm on the relevant integration time scales between 2 and 100$\,$s. The detections confirm that the sensitivity and signal chain stability of stations in the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) array are suitable for VLBI observations at 870$\mu$m. Operation at this short wavelength, combined with anticipated enhancements of the EHT, will lead to a unique high angular resolution instrument for black hole studies, capable of resolving the event horizons of supermassive black holes in both space and time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Advanced Reactors Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology Program

Based on the higher interest in Advanced Reactor (AR) deployment (e.g., ARDP ) for potential new fuel cycles, the Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Program has begun to evaluate the possible implications of long-term management and final disposition of potential Advance Reactor spent nuclear fuels (SNF) that would be generated in potential advanced reactors. Safely managing and dispositioning the potential future AR SNF, and any other associated radioactive wastes, is the primary focus of this initial preliminary assessment of those. This paper summarizes three primary tasks the Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Program is executing (or collaborating on) related to the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle (BENFC) for potential future advanced reactors: 1. Advanced Reactors Spent Fuel and Waste Streams: Strategies for the BENFC This set of activities define a high-level strategy for how to systematically approach, identify, and close research and development (R&D) gaps/potential issues associated with long-term management and final disposition of AR SNF and other possible AR waste streams. This task involves summarizing advanced reactor concepts, their likely SNF and other waste forms, and identifying previous experience with similar materials, for example from DOE-managed SNF, with closely related characteristics to the potential future AR SNF. Technical R&D gaps between the breadth of detailed understanding for safe storage, transportation and disposal of the existing light water reactor SNF fuel cycle (e.g., see NASEM, 2022) and potential future fuel cycles based on advanced reactors would then be identified. 2. Characterization and Packaging Options of Advanced Reactor SNF These activities evaluate characteristics and packaging options for advanced reactor spent fuel forms. The fuel forms are categorized into three types: (1) tri-structural isotropic (TRISO), (2) metallic, and (3) fuel salt. Emphasis is given to TRISO and metallic SNF and additional waste streams from such AR as driven by the near-term anticipated operation of the Xe-100 and the Natrium reactors as advanced-reactor demonstrations1. Preliminary information for the spent-fuel salt discharged from molten-salt reactors (MSRs) is examined to provide a baseline for future efforts. All calculations and assumptions in this work are based on publicly available information. The following characteristics are calculated or estimated for use in the preliminary assessments: SNF volume and mass, radiation/activity levels through time, thermal conditions through time, potential radionuclide source terms, chemical interactions and evolutions, disposal inventories, and waste-form lifetime. Using those characteristics, calculations to determine the applicability of existing canister designs were performed. These evaluations included geometric (e.g., dimension, volume) and mass/weight considerations, known operational approaches and loading procedures, physical and chemical considerations/conditions for storage environments, as-loaded radiation, thermal, and criticality analyses to identify constraints for storage, transportation, and disposal. 3. Back-End Management of Advanced Reactors (BEMAR) The DOE NE-8 organization has defined an Integrated Project Team to evaluate the Back End Management of Advanced Reactors (BEMAR) (includes DOE staff from a range of organizations (e.g., NE-81, NE-82, OCED) and national laboratory technical staff within the DOE NE-81 and NE-82 programs). This BEMAR group works directly with advance reactors developers to assess for the DOE the technical feasibility of storage, transportation, and disposal of AR SNF based on the characteristics provided by the developers to DOE (much of which is proprietary). The BEMAR is also tasked to develop rough-order-of-magnitude cost estimates to compare the waste management system for individual advanced reactors to existing light-water reactor management practices. To accomplish this, the BEMAR group is implementing a Systems Engineering approach.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The development and operation of the international solar-terrestrial physics central data handling facility

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Program is committed to the development of a comprehensive, multi-mission ground data system which will support a variety of national and international scientific missions in an effort to study the flow of energy from the sun through the Earth-space environment, known as the geospace. A major component of the ISTP ground data system is an ISTP-dedicated Central Data Handling Facility (CDHF). Acquisition, development, and operation of the ISTP CDHF were delegated by the ISTP Project Office within the Flight Projects Directorate to the Information Processing Division (IPD) within the Mission Operations and Data Systems Directorate (MO&DSD). The ISTP CDHF supports the receipt, storage, and electronic access of the full complement of ISTP Level-zero science data; serves as the linchpin for the centralized processing and long-term storage of all key parameters generated either by the ISTP CDHF itself or received from external, ISTP Program approved sources; and provides the required networking and 'science-friendly' interfaces for the ISTP investigators. Once connected to the ISTP CDHF, the online catalog of key parameters can be browsed from their remote processing facilities for the immediate electronic receipt of selected key parameters using the NASA Science Internet (NSI), managed by NASA's Ames Research Center. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to describe how the ISTP CDHF was successfully implemented and operated to support initially the Japanese Geomagnetic Tail (GEOTAIL) mission and correlative science investigations, and (2) to describe how the ISTP CDHF has been enhanced to support ongoing as well as future ISTP missions. Emphasis will be placed on how various project management approaches were undertaken that proved to be highly effective in delivering an operational ISTP CDHF to the Project on schedule and within budget. Examples to be discussed include: the development of superior teams; the use of Defect Causal Analysis (DCA) concepts to improve the software development process in a pilot Total Quality Management (TQM) initiative; and the implementation of a robust architecture that will be able to support the anticipated growth in the ISTP Program science requirements with only incremental upgrades to the baseline system. Further examples include the use of automated data management software and the implementation of Government and/or industry standards, whenever possible, into the hardware and software development life-cycle. Finally, the paper will also report on several new technologies (for example, the installation of a Fiber Data Distribution Interface network) that were successfully employed.

Lehtonen, Kenneth↗

Evaluations of Candidate Materials for Advanced Space-Rated Vacuum Seals to Explore Space Environment Exposure Limits

For many materials used in space hardware, the environment in which they need to operate is harsher than the environment on earth. Exposure to vacuum conditions, atomic oxygen, and ultraviolet radiation can be detrimental, so testing of space hardware in simulated space environments is required. This is especially true for elastomeric components such as seals. NASA is developing advanced space-rated vacuum seals in support of future space exploration missions. These seals must exhibit extremely low leak rates to ensure that astronauts have sufficient breathable air during extended-duration missions. In some applications the seals are not mated during portions of the mission and are left uncovered and exposed to the conditions in space for prolonged periods of time prior to mating. Space-rated vacuum seals are often made of silicone because of the material's wide operating temperature range and ability to be molded or extruded into various shapes and cross sections. One approach being considered to achieve improved performance is to add titanium dioxide to the silicone material to make it more resistant to damage from ultraviolet radiation. In this study, seals made of the baseline material with and without 1.5% titanium dioxide additive (by weight) were exposed to atomic oxygen and increasing levels of ultraviolet radiation and then leak tested. Test results revealed that seals made of the new material could withstand longer exposures while still satisfying the leak rate requirement even under worst-case conditions of partial compression at the extremes of the anticipated operating temperature range.

Ultraviolet radiation↗