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Results for “anticipatory operation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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16 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Scalable Framework of Hybrid Modeling with Anticipatory Control Strategy for Autonomous Operation of Modular and Microreactors

This poster provides a high level overview of the Scalable Framework of Hybrid Modeling with Anticipatory Control Strategy for Autonomous Operation of Modular and Microreactors LDRD program to be presented at a poster session for students of the 2021 MeV School. The purpose of the poster is to provide other participants of the MeV School with a high level overview of the author's research direction.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and assessment of a model predictive controller enabling anticipatory control strategies for a heat-pipe system

To support the reliable and resilient operation of modular reactors and microreactors, anticipatory control strategies have been proposed for achieving faster-than-real-time predictions and decision-making capabilities in anticipation of potential anomalies, including setpoint changes and cyber incidents. Here this work presents how anticipatory control strategies can be implemented via model predictive control (MPC) of a single heat pipe’s temperature. Considering the uncertainty in developing and applying MPC, this work evaluates MPC performance given three different model forms: a linear response surface model, an artificial neural network (ANN), and an autoregressive model with exogenous input (ARX). This work also evaluates the impacts of different input biases and variance on MPC performance in order to account for potential sensor reading variations due to cyber incidents. We observe that nonparametric models such as the ANN and ARX result in more fluctuated control actions compared to the MPC applied to the linear response surface model. However, when the cyber incidents are of a large magnitude, the linear response surface model produces smaller feasible regions than the nonparametric models under identical constraints.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expedited desalination permitting enables adaptive planning and water system cost reduction

Seawater desalination is a drought-proof water supply for coastal cities, but widespread development of desalination plants in the U.S. has been limited by both cost and the complexity of permitting processes designed to minimize environmental impact . This work estimates the value of accelerating the permitting timeline without changing environmental or social standards. On average, faster permitting reduces the frequency of desalination plant construction and operation, the overall costs of robust water system operation, the environmental impacts of drought-tolerant water supplies due to shorter duration of plant operation. Expedited permitting allows fundamental changes in how water infrastructure is deployed, facilitating a transition from anticipatory construction and continuous operation of seawater desalination capacity as a redundant drought buffer to just-in-time (i.e. adaptive) deployment of seawater desalination capacity when critical drought thresholds are crossed. We demonstrate the value of expedited desalination permitting in enabling adaptive planning and reducing water system costs using a simple case study in Santa Barbara, CA. We discuss additional forms of adaptive water infrastructure planning as enabled by faster permitting and address their challenges and opportunities. Lastly, we identify synergies between innovation in adaptive planning, innovation in expedited permitting practices, and innovation in water technology.

adaptive planning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning-based Anticipatory Control of Microreactors

Learning-based anticipatory control advances the level of autonomy of microreactor control systems, a key consideration for the unattended operation of fission batteries. In this work, an anticipatory control system is shown to provide accurate load-following for a microreactor by utilizing a model predictive control framework.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1993

WNN 92; Proceedings of the 3rd Workshop on Neural Networks: Academic/Industrial/NASA/Defense, Auburn Univ., AL, Feb. 10-12, 1992 and South Shore Harbour, TX, Nov. 4-6, 1992

The present conference discusses such neural networks (NN) related topics as their current development status, NN architectures, NN learning rules, NN optimization methods, NN temporal models, NN control methods, NN pattern recognition systems and applications, biological and biomedical applications of NNs, VLSI design techniques for NNs, NN systems simulation, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Attention is given to missileborne integrated NNs, adaptive-mixture NNs, implementable learning rules, an NN simulator for travelling salesman problem solutions, similarity-based forecasting, NN control of hypersonic aircraft takeoff, NN control of the Space Shuttle Arm, an adaptive NN robot manipulator controller, a synthetic approach to digital filtering, NNs for speech analysis, adaptive spline networks, an anticipatory fuzzy logic controller, and encoding operations for fuzzy associative memories.

Padgett, Mary L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A view on the current and future impact of research reactors

Full text of publication follows. The current fleet of nuclear research reactors worldwide is nearly 70 years old. These reactors have proven to be extremely valuable tools of nuclear science and engineering with a broad and interdisciplinary impact. To date, research reactors are utilized as tools for understanding the physics, operations, and safety of nuclear fission systems. In addition, they are used as intense sources of radiation in support of irradiation testing and nondestructive examination of materials. As this fleet of reactors ages, an urgent need exists to establish new facilities that can propel the benefit of these reactors into the 21. century. In fact, an opportunity exists to build research reactors based on technology concepts that are being considered for nuclear energy reactors. This may include high temperature gas cooled and/or molten salt based advanced and micro reactor concepts. Such future reactors should be designed to maintain the broad utility of current reactors in research and education. However, modern research reactors can be purposefully designed and instrumented to access neutronic and thermal hydraulic information that would support the development and validation of reactor multi-physics modeling and simulation techniques. In this case, the entire phenomenological paradigm of the reactor may be captured to understand the neutronic multiscale and its impact on operations and safety. Moreover, the generated data can be channeled to drive anticipatory examination of the state of the reactor. In general, a symbiotic relation may be envisioned between the modern research reactor and power reactor fleets, which could facilitate the safe and efficient implementation of clean nuclear energy. (author)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Temperature Management of Heat Pipe Microreactor

To enable the self-regulating capability of heat pipe (HP) microreactors, an anticipatory control strategy through model predictive control (MPC) could proactively respond to potential disturbances and deviations in operating setpoints. However, a key factor prohibiting the widespread adoption of MPCs in nuclear applications is the effort and computational costs associated with learning and calibrating first-principles-based process models when the target system is complex and when there are gaps between modeled and target reactor systems. In this paper, we demonstrate data-driven MPC using three approaches for modeling the system dynamics, including a linear state-space model, feedforward neural network, and recurrent neural networks long short-term memory. We present the development and validation process of each model and compare the performance of data-driven MPCs in controlling the temperatures of selected HPs at the evaporator and condenser regions in a 37-HP-monolith system. Our results show that, qualitatively, all data-driven MPCs are producing similar control actions, while quantitatively, with artificial neural nets (especially feedforward neural nets), MPC can better follow drastic changes in setpoints with smallest errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous control for Heat-Pipe microreactor using Data-Driven model predictive control

To enable a self-regulating capability for heat pipe (HP) microreactors, an anticipatory control strategy achieved via model predictive control (MPC) could proactively respond to potential disturbances and deviations in operating setpoints. This paper demonstrates data-driven methods for predicting the distribution and transient of temperatures and heat fluxes at selected components and regions in a 37-HP system, based on which the optimal control actions in response to changes in user-defined setpoints can be found. We present the development and validation of linear state-space model, feedfoward, and recurrent neural networks. Here, we compare the performance of MPCs with different modeling approaches in terms of following setpoints for temperatures and averaged output heat fluxes. The accuracies of the three data-driven models are similar, but the control actions initiated by neural-network-based MPC can better adapt to drastic changes in setpoints yet generate the smallest errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Social impact evaluation: Some implications of the specific decisional context approach for Anticipatory Project Assessment (ARA)

An anticipatory project assessment is discussed which is characterized as the capacity to perform, and the disposition to take into account in relevant decisional areas, the following operations: identification of the significant effects which will result from the introduction of a specified project configuration into alternative projected future social environments during the planning, implementation, and operational states; evaluation of such effects in terms of social impacts on affected participants and social value-institutional processes in accord with specified concepts of social justice.

Mayo, L. H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Anticipatory Neurofuzzy Control

Technique of feedback control, called "anticipatory neurofuzzy control," developed for use in controlling flexible structures and other dynamic systems for which mathematical models of dynamics poorly known or unknown. Superior ability to act during operation to compensate for, and adapt to, errors in mathematical model of dynamics, changes in dynamics, and noise. Also offers advantage of reduced computing time. Hybrid of two older fuzzy-logic control techniques: standard fuzzy control and predictive fuzzy control.

Mccullough, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Systems Engineering in NASA's R&TD Programs

Systems engineering is largely the analysis and planning that support the design, development, and operation of systems. The most common application of systems engineering is in guiding systems development projects that use a phased process of requirements, specifications, design, and development. This paper investigates how systems engineering techniques should be applied in research and technology development programs for advanced space systems. These programs should include anticipatory engineering of future space flight systems and a project portfolio selection process, as well as systems engineering for multiple development projects.

Jones, Harry↗
NASA NTRS2011

Cognitive Behavioral Training and Education for Spaceflight Operations

Cognitive behavioral-training (CBT) is an evidence-based practice commonly used to help treat insomnia, and is part of NASA's countermeasure regimen for Fatigue Management. CBT addresses the life style and habits of individuals that are maladaptive to managing stress and fatigue. This includes addressing learned behavioral responses that may cause stress and lead to an increased sense of fatigue. While the initial cause of onset of fatigue in the individual may be no longer present, the perception and engrained anticipation of fatigue persist and cause an exaggerated state of tension. CBT combined with relaxation training allows the individual to unlearn the maladaptive beliefs and behaviors and replace them with routines and techniques that allow cognitive restructuring and resultant relief from stress. CBT allows for elimination in individuals of unwanted ruminating thoughts and anticipatory anxiety by, for example, training the individuals to practice stressful situations in a relaxed state. As a result of CBT, relaxation can be accomplished in many ways, such as progressive muscle relaxation, meditation and guided imagery. CBT is not therapy, but rather the synthesis of behavioral countermeasures. CBT utilizes progressive relaxation as a means of reinforcing educational and cognitive countermeasures. These countermeasures include: masking, elimination of distracting thoughts, anxiety control, split attention, cognitive restructuring and other advanced psychological techniques.

Moonmaw, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Systems Engineering Process for Human Support Technology Development

Systems engineering is designing and optimizing systems. This paper reviews the systems engineering process and indicates how it can be applied in the development of advanced human support systems. Systems engineering develops the performance requirements, subsystem specifications, and detailed designs needed to construct a desired system. Systems design is difficult, requiring both art and science and balancing human and technical considerations. The essential systems engineering activity is trading off and compromising between competing objectives such as performance and cost, schedule and risk. Systems engineering is not a complete independent process. It usually supports a system development project. This review emphasizes the NASA project management process as described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 7120.5B. The process is a top down phased approach that includes the most fundamental activities of systems engineering - requirements definition, systems analysis, and design. NPR 7120.5B also requires projects to perform the engineering analyses needed to ensure that the system will operate correctly with regard to reliability, safety, risk, cost, and human factors. We review the system development project process, the standard systems engineering design methodology, and some of the specialized systems analysis techniques. We will discuss how they could apply to advanced human support systems development. The purpose of advanced systems development is not directly to supply human space flight hardware, but rather to provide superior candidate systems that will be selected for implementation by future missions. The most direct application of systems engineering is in guiding the development of prototype and flight experiment hardware. However, anticipatory systems engineering of possible future flight systems would be useful in identifying the most promising development projects.

Jones, Harry↗
NASA NTRS2017

Autonomy Operating System for UAVs: Pilot-in-a-Box

The Autonomy Operating System (AOS) is an open flight software platform with Artificial Intelligence for smart UAVs. It is built to be extendable with new apps, similar to smartphones, to enable an expanding set of missions and capabilities. AOS has as its foundations NASAs core flight executive and core flight software (cFEcFS). Pilot-in-a-Box (PIB) is an expanding collection of interacting AOS apps that provide the knowledge and intelligence onboard a UAV to safely and autonomously fly in the National Air Space, eventually without a remote human ground crew. Longer-term, the goal of PIB is to provide the capability for pilotless air vehicles such as air taxis that will be key for new transportation concepts such as mobility-on-demand. PIB provides the procedural knowledge, situational awareness, and anticipatory planning (thinking ahead of the plane) that comprises pilot competencies. These competencies together with a natural language interface will enable Pilot-in-a-Box to dialogue directly with Air Traffic Management from takeoff through landing. This paper describes the overall AOS architecture, Artificial Intelligence reasoning engines, Pilot-in-a-box competencies, and selected experimental flight tests to date.

Lowry, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast and accurate influenza forecasting in the United States with Inferno

Infectious disease forecasting is an emerging field and has the potential to improve public health through anticipatory resource allocation, situational awareness, and mitigation planning. By way of exploring and operationalizing disease forecasting, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted FluSight since the 2013/14 flu season, an annual flu forecasting challenge. Since FluSight’s onset, forecasters have developed and improved forecasting models in an effort to provide more timely, reliable, and accurate information about the likely progression of the outbreak. While improving the predictive performance of these forecasting models is often the primary objective, it is also important for a forecasting model to run quickly, facilitating further model development and improvement while providing flexibility when deployed in a real-time setting. In this vein I introduce Inferno, a fast and accurate flu forecasting model inspired by Dante, the top performing model in the 2018/19 FluSight challenge. When pseudoprospectively compared to all models that participated in FluSight 2018/19, Inferno would have placed 2nd in the national and regional challenge as well as the state challenge, behind only Dante. Inferno, however, runs in minutes and is trivially parallelizable, while Dante takes hours to run, representing a significant operational improvement with minimal impact to performance. Forecasting challenges like FluSight should continue to monitor and evaluate how they can be modified and expanded to incentivize the development of forecasting models that benefit public health.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1997

Multiple Hub Network Choice in the Liberalized European Market

A key question that so far has received relatively little attention in the germane literature is that of the changes at various airports as a result of the EU liberalization policies. That is, presently, most major European airports still benefit from the so-called home-carrier phenomenon where the country's publicly or semi-publicly owned carrier uses the country's main airport as its gateway hub and, consequently, the home-carrier is also the principal user of this airport (in terms of proportion of total aircraft movements, number of passengers transported, connections, slots ownership, etc.). The country's main airport has substantially benefited from these monopoly conditions of airline captivity, strongly determined by the bilateral system of international air transport regulation. Therefore, European major airports were used to operate in essentially different markets, compared to the increasingly competitive markets of their home based carriers. This partly explains relative stability of transport volumes and financial results of European major airports compared to the relatively volatile financial results of most European national airlines. However, the liberalization of European aviation is likely to change this situation. Market access is open now to all community carriers, i.e. carriers with majority ownership and effective control in the hands of EU citizens. Ticket prices are free, governments can only intervene in case of dumping or excessive pricing. A community airline can choose its seat in any of the 15 member states. Licensing procedures are harmonized between member states. In the last few months community carriers have had unrestricted route access within the EU. Most probably this development will be extended to countries inside and outside Europe. Last year the European Commission got the mandate to start negotiations with 10 other European countries. In the meantime the EC has also started negotiations with the USA on so-called soft rights. In the meantime, open skies agreements have been concluded between the USA and most of the EU member states to facilitate strategic alliances between airlines of the states involved. As a result of this on-going liberalization the model of the single 'national' carrier using the national home base as its single hub for the designated third, fourth and sixth freedom operations will stepwise disappear. Within the EU the concept of the national carrier has already been replaced by that of the community carrier. State ownership in more and more European carriers is reduced. On the longer run mergers or even bankruptcy will further undermine the "single national carrier - single national hub" model in Europe. In the meantime, strategic alliances between national carriers in Europe will already reduce the airlines' loyalty to a single airport. Profit maximization and accountability to share holders will supersede the loyalty of these newly emerging alliances, probably looking for the opportunities of a multiple hub network to adequately cover the whole European market. As a consequence, some European airports might see a substantial decline in arriving, departing and transfer traffic, thus in revenues and financial solvency, as well as in their connection to other inter-continental and intra-European destinations. At the same time, other airports might realize a significant increase in traffic as they will be sought after by the profit maximizing airlines as their major gateway hubs. Which will be the losing airports and which will be the winning ones? Can airports anticipate the actions of airlines in deregulated markets and utilize policies which will improve their relative position? If so, what should be these anticipatory policies? These questions become the more urgent, since an increasing number of major European airports will be privatized in the near future. Although increasing airport congestion in Europe will also be reflected in a growing demand pressure for airport slots, this is not a guarantee for a stable transport volume growth of individual airports. The more volatile the market is, the more vulnerable privatized airports become. Therefore, the main issue of this study is the analysis of the opportunities of major European airports to become a central hub as a result of the network choices made by the new European airlines in a completely liberalized market. In a previous study (Berechman and de Wit, 1996), we already explored the potential of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol of becoming the major West-European hub, once European aviation markets are deregulated. A major hindrance of that study was the use of a single hub-and-spoke network. For example that model could not analyze the viability of different combinations of European hubs within a multiple hub network of alternative airline alliances. In this study, we have formulated the model of a multi-hub network where two West-European airports are used for inter-continental and intra-European travel to enable a more realistic analysis of hub choice. Like the previous one also this multi-hub model is primarily used to assess the potential ability of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol for becoming a major West-European hub. Thus, in particular, the policy tests focus on this airport in a double hub network.

Berechman, Joseph↗