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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1983

JPL pulsar timing observations. II - Geocentric arrival times

Monitoring of the behavior of naturally pulsating galactic radio sources, or pulsars, through regularly spaced measurements of pulse arrival times, has been conducted by several laboratories. A tabular presentation is here made of pulse arrival time measurements from the NASA Deep Space Network between late 1968 and early 1981. By expressing the measurements in ephemeris time, and referring them to the geocenter, usable tables of results have been generated for each pulsar listed in the first of the tables given. The considerations addressed by the tables are: (1) a necessary step in the study of pulsar dynamics is the reduction of topocentric arrival times to the barycenter of the solar system; (2) the tabulated data are accessible to all opinions as to the procedures to be used in interpreting arrival time data; and (3) different observing programs can usually be combined to produce an improvement in the total data set.

Downs, G. S.↗
DOE OSTI2017

PIXiE: an algorithm for automated ion mobility arrival time extraction and collision cross section calculation using global data association

Abstract Motivation Drift tube ion mobility spectrometry coupled with mass spectrometry (DTIMS-MS) is increasingly implemented in high throughput omics workflows, and new informatics approaches are necessary for processing the associated data. To automatically extract arrival times for molecules measured by DTIMS at multiple electric fields and compute their associated collisional cross sections (CCS), we created the PNNL Ion Mobility Cross Section Extractor (PIXiE). The primary application presented for this algorithm is the extraction of data that can then be used to create a reference library of experimental CCS values for use in high throughput omics analyses. Results We demonstrate the utility of this approach by automatically extracting arrival times and calculating the associated CCSs for a set of endogenous metabolites and xenobiotics. The PIXiE-generated CCS values were within error of those calculated using commercially available instrument vendor software. Availability and implementation PIXiE is an open-source tool, freely available on Github. The documentation, source code of the software, and a GUI can be found at https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/PIXiE and the source code of the backend workflow library used by PIXiE can be found at https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/IMS-Informed-Library. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Ma, Jian↗
NASA NTRS2018

Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid-2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times, in an average sense, to within ±10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of 1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of thevarious models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS1985

A note on some statistical properties of rise time parameters used in muon arrival time measurements

Most investigations of the muon arrival time distribution in EAS during the past decade made use of parameters which can collectively be called rise time parameters. The rise time parameter T sub A/B is defined as the time taken for the integrated pulse from a detector to rise from A% to B% of its full amplitude. The use of these parameters are usually restricted to the determination of the radial dependence thereof. This radial dependence of the rise time parameters are usually taken as a signature of the particle interaction characteristics in the shower. As these parameters have a stochastic nature, it seems reasonable that one should also take notice of this aspect of the rise time parameters. A statistical approach to rise time parameters is presented.

Vanderwalt, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Verification of Real-Time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations of CME Arrival-Time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014- December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

MHD / modeling / validation / forecasting / corona↗
DOE OSTI2017

THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: EXCESS NOISE IN MILLISECOND PULSAR ARRIVAL TIMES

Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy using a pulsar timing array requires high-quality millisecond pulsars (MSPs), correctable interstellar propagation delays, and high-precision measurements of pulse times of arrival. Here we identify noise in timing residuals that exceeds that predicted for arrival time estimation for MSPs observed by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. We characterize the excess noise using variance and structure function analyses. We find that 26 out of 37 pulsars show inconsistencies with a white-noise-only model based on the short timescale analysis of each pulsar, and we demonstrate that the excess noise has a red power spectrum for 15 pulsars. We also decompose the excess noise into chromatic (radio-frequency-dependent) and achromatic components. Associating the achromatic red-noise component with spin noise and including additional power-spectrum-based estimates from the literature, we estimate a scaling law in terms of spin parameters (frequency and frequency derivative) and data-span length and compare it to the scaling law of Shannon and Cordes. We briefly discuss our results in terms of detection of GWs at nanohertz frequencies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: OBSERVATIONS, ARRIVAL TIME MEASUREMENTS, AND ANALYSIS OF 37 MILLISECOND PULSARS

We present high-precision timing observations spanning up to nine years for 37 millisecond pulsars monitored with the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project. We describe the observational and instrumental setups used to collect the data, and methodology applied for calculating pulse times of arrival; these include novel methods for measuring instrumental offsets and characterizing low signal-to-noise ratio timing results. The time of arrival data are fit to a physical timing model for each source, including terms that characterize time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-dependent pulse shape evolution. In conjunction with the timing model fit, we have performed a Bayesian analysis of a parameterized timing noise model for each source, and detect evidence for excess low-frequency, or “red,” timing noise in 10 of the pulsars. For 5 of these cases this is likely due to interstellar medium propagation effects rather than intrisic spin variations. Subsequent papers in this series will present further analysis of this data set aimed at detecting or limiting the presence of nanohertz-frequency gravitational wave signals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1976

Arrival time of satellite-broadened laser pulses

A method for measuring the time of arrival of very narrow laser pulses which have been reflected and randomly broadened by a target is examined. It is known that these return pulses from the target have very small rise times. A threshold detection algorithm that detects the rising edge of the pulse is used for obtaining the pulse arrival times. The errors of the scheme are evaluated numerically for different pulse shapes, and a loose bound on the errors of detecting a typical pulse is obtained. A gamma-density model is used to characterize the random gain processes of the optical receiver, and the effect of such random gains on the errors of threshold detection is analyzed.

Iyer, R. S.↗
DOE OSTI2013

ESTIMATING THE ARRIVAL TIME OF EARTH-DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AT IN SITU SPACECRAFT USING COR AND HI OBSERVATIONS FROM STEREO

Predicting the arrival time and transit speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) near the Earth is critical to understanding the solar-terrestrial relationship. Even though STEREO observations now provide multiple views of CMEs in the heliosphere, the true speeds derived from stereoscopic reconstruction of SECCHI coronagraph data are not quite sufficient for accurate forecasting of the arrival time at Earth of a majority of CMEs. This uncertainty is due to many factors that change CME kinematics, such as the interaction of two or more CMEs or the interaction of CMEs with the pervading solar wind. In order to understand the propagation of CMEs, we have used the three-dimensional triangulation method on SECCHI coronagraph (COR2) images and geometric triangulation on the J-maps constructed from Heliospheric Imagers HI1 and HI2 data for eight Earth-directed CMEs observed during 2008-2010. Based on the reconstruction, and implementing the drag-based model for the distance where the CMEs could not be tracked unambiguously in the interplanetary (IP) medium, the arrival time of these CMEs have been estimated. These arrival times have also been compared with the actual arrival times as observed by in situ instruments. The analysis reveals the importance of heliospheric imaging for improved forecasting of the arrival time and direction of propagation of CMEs in the IP medium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2011

ARRIVAL TIME CALCULATION FOR INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WITH CIRCULAR FRONTS AND APPLICATION TO STEREO OBSERVATIONS OF THE 2009 FEBRUARY 13 ERUPTION

One of the goals of the NASA Solar TErestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) mission is to study the feasibility of forecasting the direction, arrival time, and internal structure of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from a vantage point outside the Sun-Earth line. Through a case study, we discuss the arrival time calculation of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) in the ecliptic plane using data from STEREO/SECCHI at large elongations from the Sun in combination with different geometric assumptions about the ICME front shape [fixed-{Phi} (FP): a point and harmonic mean (HM): a circle]. These forecasting techniques use single-spacecraft imaging data and are based on the assumption of constant velocity and direction. We show that for the slow (350 km s{sup -1}) ICME on 2009 February 13-18, observed at quadrature by the two STEREO spacecraft, the results for the arrival time given by the HM approximation are more accurate by 12 hr than those for FP in comparison to in situ observations of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters by STEREO/IMPACT/PLASTIC, and by 6 hr for the arrival time at Venus Express (MAG). We propose that the improvement is directly related to the ICME front shape being more accurately described by HM for an ICME with a low inclination of its symmetry axis to the ecliptic. In this case, the ICME has to be tracked to >30{sup 0} elongation to obtain arrival time errors < {+-} 5 hr. A newly derived formula for calculating arrival times with the HM method is also useful for a triangulation technique assuming the same geometry.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

PickerXL, A Large Deep Learning Model to Measure Arrival Times from Noisy Seismic Signals

Precisely measuring seismic arrival times is a labor-intensive task but is critical for both earthquake monitoring and subsurface imaging. Recently published deep learning models have demonstrated superior performance compared to traditional automatic approaches for picking arrival times. Although existing deep learning models have shown promising results, further advancements are necessary as their performance is not yet satisfactory especially when applied to new regions and station networks. Increasing model size has led to improved performance in other machine learning applications. Here, we aimed to investigate whether enlarging deep learning models can increase performance on accepted benchmarks. We trained three models of varying sizes, small (1X), medium (4X), and large (16X), using globally distributed local and regional earthquake signals and background noise waveforms from a benchmark dataset, Stanford Earthquake Dataset. Our results indicate that the largest model (PickerXL) outperforms both the smaller models and Seisbench implementation of the PhaseNet model, which has the same number of parameters as our small model. The PickerXL model’s enhanced capacity to extract complex patterns from seismograms contributes to its superior arrival picking abilities compared to the smaller model.

Chai, Chengping [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2012

On the possibility to discriminate the mass of the primary cosmic ray using the muon arrival times from extensive air showers: Application for Pierre Auger Observatory

In this paper we study the possibility to discriminate the mass of the primary cosmic ray by observing the muon arrival times in ground detectors. We analyzed extensive air showers (EAS) induced by proton and iron nuclei with the same energy 8 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 17} eV simulated with CORSIKA, and analyzed the muon arrival times at ground measured by the infill array detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory (PAO). From the arrival times of the core and of the muons the atmospheric depth of muon generation locus is evaluated. The results suggest a potential mass discrimination on the basis of muon arrival times and of the reconstructed atmospheric depth of muon production. An analysis of a larger set of CORSIKA simulations carried out for primary energies above 10{sup 18} eV is in progress.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2016

The NANOGrav nine-year data set: Noise budget for pulsar arrival times on intraday timescales

The use of pulsars as astrophysical clocks for gravitational wave (GW) experiments demands the highest possible timing precision. Pulse times of arrival (TOAs) are limited by stochastic processes that occur in the pulsar itself, along the line of sight through the interstellar medium, and in the measurement process. On timescales of seconds to hours, the TOA variance exceeds that from template-fitting errors due to additive noise. We assess contributions to the total variance from two additional effects: amplitude and phase jitter intrinsic to single pulses and changes in the interstellar impulse response from scattering. The three effects have different dependencies on time, frequency, and pulse signal-to-noise ratio. We use data on 37 pulsars from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for GWs to assess the individual contributions to the overall intraday noise budget for each pulsar. We detect jitter in 22 pulsars and estimate the average value of rms jitter in our pulsars to be ∼1% of pulse phase. We examine how jitter evolves as a function of frequency and find evidence for evolution. Finally, we compare our measurements with previous noise parameter estimates and discuss methods to improve GW detection pipelines.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scheme for stabilising the phase and arrival time of ultrashort laser pulses in a coherent beam combining fibre system

An algorithm has been demonstrated for simultaneously measuring the phase and arrival time of optical pulses relative to pulses in a reference channel using one detector array. Based on this algorithm, a simple optoelectronic pulse phase and arrival time stabilisation scheme has been designed for operation in a coherent beam combining fibre system for ultrashort pulses (including chirped ones). We have studied the performance of the stabilisation scheme. In particular, we have reached a phase measurement rate of 25 000 cps, demonstrated an ∼ 2 kHz limiting phase stabilisation frequency in a feedback loop, and obtained an arrival time measurement accuracy of ∼ 5 % of the transform-limited pulse duration at a measurement rate of 5 cps. In experiments concerned with coherent beam combining for two channels of a pulsed fibre system at a wavelength of 1030 nm, we have demonstrated phase stabilisation with an accuracy better than λ/100 and delay setting accuracy of 10 fs at a transform-limited pulse duration of ∼ 200 fs and obtained 94 % beam combining efficiency. (paper)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Stochastic Resonance and First Arrival Time for Excitable Systems

We study the noise induced thermally activated barrier crossing of Brownian particles that hop in a piecewise linear potential. Using the exact analytic solutions and via numerical simulations not only we explore the dependence for the first passage time of a single particle but also we calculate the first arrival time for one particle out of N particles. The first arrival time decreases as the number of particles increases as expected. We then explore the thermally activated barrier crossing rate of the system in the presence of time varying signal. The dependence of signal to noise ratio SNR as well as the power amplification (η) on model parameters is explored. η and SNR depict a pronounced peak at particular noise strength. In the presence of N particles, η is considerably amplified as N steps up showing the weak periodic signal plays a vital role in controlling the noise induced dynamics of the system. Moreover, for the sake of generality, the viscous friction γ is considered to decrease exponentially when the temperature T of the medium increases (γ=Be{sup −AT}) as proposed originally by Reynolds (Philos Trans R Soc Lond 177:157, 1886).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

ARRIVAL TIME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GRAVITATIONAL WAVES AND ELECTROMAGNETIC SIGNALS DUE TO GRAVITATIONAL LENSING

In this study we demonstrate that general relativity predicts arrival time differences between gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) signals caused by the wave effects in gravitational lensing. The GW signals can arrive earlier than the EM signals in some cases if the GW/EM signals have passed through a lens, even if both signals were emitted simultaneously by a source. GW wavelengths are much larger than EM wavelengths; therefore, the propagation of the GWs does not follow the laws of geometrical optics, including the Shapiro time delay, if the lens mass is less than approximately 10{sup 5} M {sub ⊙}( f /Hz){sup −1}, where f is the GW frequency. The arrival time difference can reach ∼0.1 s ( f /Hz){sup −1} if the signals have passed by a lens of mass ∼8000 M {sub ⊙}( f /Hz){sup −1} with the impact parameter smaller than the Einstein radius; therefore, it is more prominent for lower GW frequencies. For example, when a distant supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) in a galactic center is lensed by an intervening galaxy, the time lag becomes of the order of 10 days. Future pulsar timing arrays including the Square Kilometre Array and X-ray detectors may detect several time lags by measuring the orbital phase differences between the GW/EM signals in the SMBHBs. Gravitational lensing imprints a characteristic modulation on a chirp waveform; therefore, we can deduce whether a measured arrival time lag arises from intrinsic source properties or gravitational lensing. Determination of arrival time differences would be extremely useful in multimessenger observations and tests of general relativity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Absolute Locations of the North Korean Nuclear Tests Based on Differential Seismic Arrival Times and InSAR

Absolute location of the announced Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) nuclear test on 6 January 2016 is constrained by fitting associated, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR)-based ground displacement with elastic finite-element modeling of an underground explosion source, including the effects of topography. The other five announced nuclear tests are located using arrival times and differential arrival times of regional and teleseismic body waves and constraints on the 6 January 2016 event location. Nuclear tests on 6 January 2016, 9 September 2016, and 3 September 2017 are under the summit ridge of Mt. Mantap, and tests on 25 May 2009 and 12 February 2013 are south of the topographic crest under the steep southern face of the mountain. The first test on 9 October 2006 was located near the crest of a separate topographic ridge approximately 2.87 km east of the 6 January 2016 event. Several unannounced events have occurred in the vicinity of the test site. The location uncertainty ellipse of an event approximately 8 min 30 s after the 2017 announced test covers the DPRK test site and is likely to have occurred there. Finally, additional events on 27 September 2017 and 12 October 2017 are 4–8 km northwest of the test site, and location probability regions do not overlap the test site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

FITEVT: A FORTRAN program for arrival-time analysis of nuclear-decay events

FITEVT is a FORTRAN program designed to analyze recorded arrival times of nuclear-decay events affected by dead-time. Here, the primary goal of the program is precise and accurate determination of half-lives. Its method involves imposition of a known sufficiently long extending dead-time to the recorded event sequence, so that the original dead-time effects are completely obliterated and the remaining live-times of the survived events are known exactly. Upon completion of the analysis, the arrival-time spectrum and the live-time spectrum are predicted and compared to those constructed from the survived events.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗