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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1983

JPL pulsar timing observations. II - Geocentric arrival times

Monitoring of the behavior of naturally pulsating galactic radio sources, or pulsars, through regularly spaced measurements of pulse arrival times, has been conducted by several laboratories. A tabular presentation is here made of pulse arrival time measurements from the NASA Deep Space Network between late 1968 and early 1981. By expressing the measurements in ephemeris time, and referring them to the geocenter, usable tables of results have been generated for each pulsar listed in the first of the tables given. The considerations addressed by the tables are: (1) a necessary step in the study of pulsar dynamics is the reduction of topocentric arrival times to the barycenter of the solar system; (2) the tabulated data are accessible to all opinions as to the procedures to be used in interpreting arrival time data; and (3) different observing programs can usually be combined to produce an improvement in the total data set.

Downs, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid-2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times, in an average sense, to within ±10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of 1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of thevarious models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS1985

A note on some statistical properties of rise time parameters used in muon arrival time measurements

Most investigations of the muon arrival time distribution in EAS during the past decade made use of parameters which can collectively be called rise time parameters. The rise time parameter T sub A/B is defined as the time taken for the integrated pulse from a detector to rise from A% to B% of its full amplitude. The use of these parameters are usually restricted to the determination of the radial dependence thereof. This radial dependence of the rise time parameters are usually taken as a signature of the particle interaction characteristics in the shower. As these parameters have a stochastic nature, it seems reasonable that one should also take notice of this aspect of the rise time parameters. A statistical approach to rise time parameters is presented.

Vanderwalt, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Verification of Real-Time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations of CME Arrival-Time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014- December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

MHD / modeling / validation / forecasting / corona↗
NASA NTRS1976

Arrival time of satellite-broadened laser pulses

A method for measuring the time of arrival of very narrow laser pulses which have been reflected and randomly broadened by a target is examined. It is known that these return pulses from the target have very small rise times. A threshold detection algorithm that detects the rising edge of the pulse is used for obtaining the pulse arrival times. The errors of the scheme are evaluated numerically for different pulse shapes, and a loose bound on the errors of detecting a typical pulse is obtained. A gamma-density model is used to characterize the random gain processes of the optical receiver, and the effect of such random gains on the errors of threshold detection is analyzed.

Iyer, R. S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

PickerXL, A Large Deep Learning Model to Measure Arrival Times from Noisy Seismic Signals

Precisely measuring seismic arrival times is a labor-intensive task but is critical for both earthquake monitoring and subsurface imaging. Recently published deep learning models have demonstrated superior performance compared to traditional automatic approaches for picking arrival times. Although existing deep learning models have shown promising results, further advancements are necessary as their performance is not yet satisfactory especially when applied to new regions and station networks. Increasing model size has led to improved performance in other machine learning applications. Here, we aimed to investigate whether enlarging deep learning models can increase performance on accepted benchmarks. We trained three models of varying sizes, small (1X), medium (4X), and large (16X), using globally distributed local and regional earthquake signals and background noise waveforms from a benchmark dataset, Stanford Earthquake Dataset. Our results indicate that the largest model (PickerXL) outperforms both the smaller models and Seisbench implementation of the PhaseNet model, which has the same number of parameters as our small model. The PickerXL model’s enhanced capacity to extract complex patterns from seismograms contributes to its superior arrival picking abilities compared to the smaller model.

Chai, Chengping [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
NASA NTRS1985

Arrival time distributions of electrons in air showers with primary energies above 10 (18)eV observed at 900m above sea level

Detection of air showers with primary energies above 10 to the 19th power eV with sufficient statistics is extremely important in an astrophysical aspect related to the Greisen cut off and the origin of such high energy cosmic rays. Recently, a method is proposed to observe such giant air showers by measuring the arrival time distributions of air-shower particles at large core distances with a mini array. Experiments to measure the arrival time distributions of muons were started in 1981 and those of electrons in early 1983 in the Akeno air-shower array (930 gcm cm squared atmospheric depth, 900m above sea level). During the time of observation, the detection area of the Akeno array was expanded from 1 sq km to sq km in 1982 and to 20 sq km in 1984. Now the arrival time distribution of electrons and muons can be measured for showers with primary energies above 1019eV at large core distances.

Kakimoto, F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Observation of arrival times of EAS with energies or = 6 x 10 (14) eV

The Earth's atmosphere is continually being bombarded by primary cosmic ray particles which are generally believed to be high-energy nuclei. The fact that the majority of cosmic ray primaries are charged particles and that space is permeated with random magnetic fields, means that the particles do not travel in straight lines. The arrival time distribution of EAS may also transfer some information about the primary particles. Actually, if the particles come to our Earth in a completely random process, the arrival time distribution of pairs of successive particles should fit an exponential law. The work reported here was arried out at Sydney University from May 1982 to January 1983. All the data are used to plot the arrival-time distribution of the events, that is, the distribution of time-separation between consecutive events on a 1 minute bin size. During this period more than 2300 showers were recorded. The results are discussed and compared with that of some other experiments.

Sun, L.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Effects of Uncertainty in Initial CME Input Parameters on Deflection, Rotation, Bz, and Arrival Time Predictions

Understanding the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) requires knowing if and when they will impact and their properties upon impact. Of particular importance is the strength of a CME's southward magnetic field component (Bz ). Kay et al. (2013, https://doi:10.1088/0004-637X/775/1/5, 2015, https://doi:10.1088/948 0004-637X/805/2/168) have shown that the simplified analytic model Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) can reproduce the deflection and rotation of CMEs. Kay, Gopalswamy, Reinard, and Opher (2017, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/835/2/117) introduced ForeCAT In situ Data Observer, which uses ForeCAT results to simulate magnetic field profiles. ForeCAT In situ Data Observer reproduces the in situ observations on roughly hourly time scales, suggesting that these models could be extremely useful for predictions of Bz . However, as with all models, both models are sensitive to their input parameters, which may not be precisely known for predictions. We explore this sensitivity using ensembles having small changes in the initial latitude, longitude, and orientation of the erupting CME. We explore the effects of different background magnetic field models and find that the changes in deflection and rotation resulting from the uncertainty in the initial parameters tend to exceed the changes from dierent magnetic backgrounds. The range in the in situ proles tends to scale with the range in the deflection and rotation. We also consider a simple arrival time model using ForeCAT results and nd an average absolute error of only 3 hr. We show that an uncertainty in the CME position of 8.1 ± 6.9 leads to variations of 6 hr in the arrival time. This measure depends strongly on the location of impact within the CME with the arrival time changing less for impacts near the nose.

Kay, Christina D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

VLF long-range lightning location using the arrival time difference technique (ATD)

A new network of VLF receiving systems is currently being developed in the USA to support NASA's Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). The new network will be deployed in the east coast of the US, including Puerto Rico, and will be operational in late 1995. The system should give affordable, near real-time, accurate lightning locating capabilities at long ranges and with extended coverage. It is based on the Arrival Time Difference (ATD) method of Lee (1986; 1990). The ATD technique is based on the estimation of the time of arrival of sferics detected over an 18 kHz bandwith. The ground system results will be compared and complemented with satellite optical measurements gathered with the already operational Optical Transient Detector (OTD) instrument and in due course with its successor the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning observations are important to understand atmospheric electrification phenomena, discharge processes, associated phenomena on earth (e.g. whistlers, explosive Spread-F) and other planets. In addition, lightning is a conspicuous indicator of atmospheric activity whose potential is just beginning to be recognized and utilized. On more prosaic grounds, lightning observations are important for protection of life, property and services.

Ierkic, H. Mario↗
NASA NTRS1985

Longitudinal development of muons in large air showers studies from the arrival time distributions measured at 900m above sea level

The arrival time distributions of muons with energies above 1.0GeV and 0.5GeV have been measured in the Akeno air-shower array to study the longitudinal development of muons in air showers with primary energies in the range 10 to the 17th power to 10 to the 18th power ev. The average rise times of muons with energies above 1.0GeV at large core distances are consistent with those expected from very high multiplicity models and, on the contrary, with those expected from the low multiplicity models at small core distances. This implies that the longitudinal development at atmospheric depth smaller than 500 cm square is very fast and that at larger atmospheric depths is rather slow.

Kakimoto, F.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Benchmarking CME Arrival Time and Impact: Progress on Metadata, Metrics, and Events

Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and subsequent geomagnetic impacts of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth is an important objective for space weather forecasting agencies. Recently, the CME Arrival and Impact working team has made significant progress toward defining communit yagreed metrics and validation methods to assess the current state of CME modeling capabilities. This will allow the community to quantify our current capabilities and track progress in models over time. First, it is crucial that the community focuses on the collection of the necessary metadata for transparency and reproducibility of results. Concerning CME arrival and impact we have identified six different metadata types: 3D CME measurement, model description, model input, CME (non)arrival observation, model output data, and metrics and validation methods. Second, the working team has also identified a validation time period, where all events within the following two periods will be considered: 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2012 and January 2015 to 31 December 2015. Those two periods amount to a total of about 100 hit events at Earth and a large amount of misses. Considering a time period will remove any bias in selecting events and the event set will represent a sample set that will not be biased by user selection. Lastly, we have defined the basic metrics and skill scores that the CME Arrival and Impact working team will focus on.

Verbeke, C.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Gamma-Ray Burst Arrival Time Localizations: Simultaneous Observations by Mars Observer, Compton Gamma Ray Observatory and Ulysses

Between 1992 October 4 and 1993 August 1, concurrent coverage by the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), Mars Observer (MO), and Ulysses spacecraft was obtained for 78 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). Although most of these were below the MO and Ulysses thresholds, nine were positively detected by all three spacecraft, with data quality adequate for quantitative localization analysis. All were localized independently to approximately 2 deg accuracy by the CGRO Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE). We computed arrival-time error boxes with larger dimensions ranging from a few arcminutes to the diameters of the BATSE-only boxes and with smaller dimensions in the arcminute range. Three events are of particular interest: GB 930704 (BATSE 2428) has been described as a possible repeater. The arrival-time information is consistent with that hypothesis, but only just so. The GB 930706 (2431) box, at approximately 1 min x 4 min, is the only one this small obtained since Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) entered the Venusian atmosphere in 1992 October. Sensitive radio and optical observations of this location were made within 8 and 9 days of the burst, but no counterpart candidates were identified. GB 930801 (2477) is the first GRB that had its localization improved by taking into account BATSE Earth occultation.

Laros, J. G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Prediction of Infrasound Arrival Times and Directions from Stationary and Moving Impulsive Sources

This report addresses the need to predict infrasound signal arrival times and back azimuths at monitoring stations, enabling more focused and efficient searches within recorded waveform data. The primary challenge is estimating expected signal arrival windows for stationary and moving acoustic sources, such as chemical explosions, volcanic eruptions, meteoroids, and spacecraft re-entry events. To address this challenge, a reproducible methodology is described that uses simplified propagation speeds for boundary layer, tropospheric, stratospheric, and thermospheric atmospheric waveguides. While the Python source code itself is not freely available, this document provides detailed, step-by-step instructions, and equations enabling users to replicate and adapt the method independently. The method reliably predicts signal arrival intervals and back azimuths, thereby supporting rapid detection and accurate interpretation of infrasound events. Results demonstrate that this method effectively identifies plausible signal arrival intervals and directions, facilitating faster event detection and more reliable interpretation. This methodology directly supports atmospheric monitoring, planetary defense, and forensic analysis of explosive atmospheric events.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2018

Rapid Trajectory Prediction for a Fixed-Wing UAS in a Uniform Wind Field with Specified Arrival Times

This paper presents an algorithm to rapidly generate trajectories for a kinematic fixed-wing Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) model flying at constant altitude in a uniform wind field. Arrival times are specified by operators and rapid generation is accomplished via an elliptic integral problem formulation. Simulations are provided that illustrate this approach in the context of NASA's UAS Traffic Management Project.

trajectory↗
NASA NTRS1980

Techniques for measuring arrival times of pulsar signals 1: DSN observations from 1968 to 1980

Techniques used in the ground based observations of pulsars are described, many of them applicable in a navigation scheme. The arrival times of the pulses intercepting Earth are measured at time intervals from a few days to a few months. Low noise, wide band receivers, amplify signals intercepted by 26 m, 34, and 64 m antennas. Digital recordings of total received signal power versus time are cross correlated with the appropriate pulse template.

Downs, G. S.↗