Imbalanced Regression Artificial Neural Network Model for Auroral Electrojet Indices (IRANNA): Can We Predict Strong Events?
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Xiangning Chu↗
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Evaluating Algorithm Performance Metrics Tailored for Prognostics
Prognostics has taken a center stage in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) where it is desired to estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the system so that remedial measures may be taken in advance to avoid catastrophic events or unwanted downtimes. Validation of such predictions is an important but difficult proposition and a lack of appropriate evaluation methods renders prognostics meaningless. Evaluation methods currently used in the research community are not standardized and in many cases do not sufficiently assess key performance aspects expected out of a prognostics algorithm. In this paper we introduce several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics and show that they can effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically four algorithms namely; Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Polynomial Regression (PR) are compared. These algorithms vary in complexity and their ability to manage uncertainty around predicted estimates. Results show that the new metrics rank these algorithms in different manner and depending on the requirements and constraints suitable metrics may be chosen. Beyond these results, these metrics offer ideas about how metrics suitable to prognostics may be designed so that the evaluation procedure can be standardized. 1
Saxena, Abhinav↗
Experiments to Determine Whether Recursive Partitioning (CART) or an Artificial Neural Network Overcomes Theoretical Limitations of Cox Proportional Hazards Regression
New computationally intensive tools for medical survival analyses include recursive partitioning (also called CART) and artificial neural networks. A challenge that remains is to better understand the behavior of these techniques in effort to know when they will be effective tools. Theoretically they may overcome limitations of the traditional multivariable survival technique, the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Experiments were designed to test whether the new tools would, in practice, overcome these limitations. Two datasets in which theory suggests CART and the neural network should outperform the Cox model were selected. The first was a published leukemia dataset manipulated to have a strong interaction that CART should detect. The second was a published cirrhosis dataset with pronounced nonlinear effects that a neural network should fit. Repeated sampling of 50 training and testing subsets was applied to each technique. The concordance index C was calculated as a measure of predictive accuracy by each technique on the testing dataset. In the interaction dataset, CART outperformed Cox (P less than 0.05) with a C improvement of 0.1 (95% Cl, 0.08 to 0.12). In the nonlinear dataset, the neural network outperformed the Cox model (P less than 0.05), but by a very slight amount (0.015). As predicted by theory, CART and the neural network were able to overcome limitations of the Cox model. Experiments like these are important to increase our understanding of when one of these new techniques will outperform the standard Cox model. Further research is necessary to predict which technique will do best a priori and to assess the magnitude of superiority.
Kattan, Michael W.↗
Partial Least Squares and Neural Networks for Quantitative Calibration of Laser-induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBs) of Geologic Samples
The ChemCam instrument [1] on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover will be used to obtain the chemical composition of surface targets within 7 m of the rover using Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS). ChemCam analyzes atomic emission spectra (240-800 nm) from a plasma created by a pulsed Nd:KGW 1067 nm laser. The LIBS spectra can be used in a semiquantitative way to rapidly classify targets (e.g., basalt, andesite, carbonate, sulfate, etc.) and in a quantitative way to estimate their major and minor element chemical compositions. Quantitative chemical analysis from LIBS spectra is complicated by a number of factors, including chemical matrix effects [2]. Recent work has shown promising results using multivariate techniques such as partial least squares (PLS) regression and artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict elemental abundances in samples [e.g. 2-6]. To develop, refine, and evaluate analysis schemes for LIBS spectra of geologic materials, we collected spectra of a diverse set of well-characterized natural geologic samples and are comparing the predictive abilities of PLS, cascade correlation ANN (CC-ANN) and multilayer perceptron ANN (MLP-ANN) analysis procedures.
Anderson, R. B.↗
Estuarine Sediment Deposition during Wetland Restoration: A GIS and Remote Sensing Modeling Approach
Restoration of the industrial salt flats in the San Francisco Bay, California is an ongoing wetland rehabilitation project. Remote sensing maps of suspended sediment concentration, and other GIS predictor variables were used to model sediment deposition within these recently restored ponds. Suspended sediment concentrations were calibrated to reflectance values from Landsat TM 5 and ASTER using three statistical techniques -- linear regression, multivariate regression, and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to map suspended sediment concentrations. Multivariate and ANN regressions using ASTER proved to be the most accurate methods, yielding r2 values of 0.88 and 0.87, respectively. Predictor variables such as sediment grain size and tidal frequency were used in the Marsh Sedimentation (MARSED) model for predicting deposition rates for three years. MARSED results for a fully restored pond show a root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 66.8 mm (<1) between modeled and field observations. This model was further applied to a pond breached in November 2010 and indicated that the recently breached pond will reach equilibrium levels after 60 months of tidal inundation.
Newcomer, Michelle↗
Predicting Melt Properties Using Atomistic Simulations With A Highly Accurate Physically Informed Neural Network Interatomic Potential
The use of a recently developed machine learning (ML) interatomic potential for molecular dynamics simulations of aluminum melt properties will be presented. Such properties are critical for process modeling in additive manufacturing, including the melt pool size, solidification, and formation of solidification microstructures. Direct first-principles modeling of these processes is computationally prohibitive whereas simulations employing ML potentials combine the high accuracy of quantum-mechanical methods with high computational speeds. The physically-informed neural network (PINN) method used herein, integrates a high-dimensional regression implemented by an artificial neural network with a physics-based bond-order interatomic potential. PINN potentials can accurately reproduce many properties of aluminum in both crystalline-solid and liquid phases. We examine the accuracy of a PINN Al potential in predicting the density, self-diffusivity, viscosity, and the tension of the liquid surface and liquid-solid interfaces. Comparison with experimental data and ab initio molecular dynamics calculations shows very good agreement for all properties tested.
molecular dynamics↗
The INSTEP Monitoring Network: Merging High-and-Low Cost Measurements to Characterize California Wildfires
Despite challenges with data quality and scope, low-cost sensor networks have skyrocketed in popularity over the last 15 years, making air quality data available on refined spatial scales. More recently, studies have leveraged both high and low-quality instruments to create stronger “hybrid” models, with most studies focusing on particulate matter. Low-cost measurements typically represent ground-level emissions only, providing context for human health issues from climate change-driven events such as wildfires. Since low-cost sensors’ capabilities are localized, daily events and microclimates tend to dominate the data rather than larger regional or atmospheric trends. Likewise, their low cost explains their high uncertainty. In contrast, some regulatory-grade instruments produce column measurements as well, providing reliable information on a broader scope. To bridge this gap while expanding into gas-phase measurements, we deployed 12 air quality sensor packages in California, USA during the 2022 wildfire season. These INSTEP (Inexpensive Network Sensor Technology Exploring Pollution) monitors measure carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and several hydrocarbons including methane (CH4) and formaldehyde (HCHO). Half of the monitors were co-located with remote sensing spectrometers: NASA Pandora and Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). The overlap in pollutants includes NO2, O3, and HCHO between the INSTEP monitors and the Pandora column measurements. TCCON covers column CO, CO2, and CH4, rounding out our comparison. Most of the monitors were distributed throughout the San Francisco Bay area, and an additional three were located within 100 km of Los Angeles. The sites ranged in geographic and population characteristics, including desert, mountainous, coastal, and urban locations. Since varying environmental conditions such as temperature and pressure are known to challenge sensor performance, we will apply newer sensor “calibration” techniques meant to combat this. We will normalize our sensor signals by z-scoring them prior to applying a single calibration model in the form of multivariate linear regression or an artificial neural network. While this technique has been validated for the hydrocarbon and ozone sensor types (metal oxide), it has not yet been tested on electrochemical and non-dispersive infrared sensors, which are also used in the INSTEP monitors. This will serve as a test to see if this normalization technique – or another – is most effective in accounting for environmental differences among sensors. Related data analysis efforts have found success with a variety of geospatial analysis techniques, including weighted network models in which high-quality instruments are given higher weights than their low-cost counterparts. Our preliminary analysis will focus on kriging, which uses a Gaussian algorithm to assign weights, providing estimated pollution levels at locations between monitors. Smoke trajectory and evolution will also be considered using both measurement types. We also aim to baseline subtract our emission estimates from each region to determine which portion of emissions are regional and local, further characterizing burn differences in northern and southern California fires. Future directions include using INSTEP jointly with TEMPO satellite data, and mobile deployments on aircraft and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV).
Low-cost sensors↗
Can Selforganizing Maps Accurately Predict Photometric Redshifts?
We present an unsupervised machine-learning approach that can be employed for estimating photometric redshifts. The proposed method is based on a vector quantization called the self-organizing-map (SOM) approach. A variety of photometrically derived input values were utilized from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's main galaxy sample, luminous red galaxy, and quasar samples, along with the PHAT0 data set from the Photo-z Accuracy Testing project. Regression results obtained with this new approach were evaluated in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) to estimate the accuracy of the photometric redshift estimates. The results demonstrate competitive RMSE and outlier percentages when compared with several other popular approaches, such as artificial neural networks and Gaussian process regression. SOM RMSE results (using delta(z) = z(sub phot) - z(sub spec)) are 0.023 for the main galaxy sample, 0.027 for the luminous red galaxy sample, 0.418 for quasars, and 0.022 for PHAT0 synthetic data. The results demonstrate that there are nonunique solutions for estimating SOM RMSEs. Further research is needed in order to find more robust estimation techniques using SOMs, but the results herein are a positive indication of their capabilities when compared with other well-known methods
Way, Michael J.↗
Predicting lettuce canopy photosynthesis with statistical and neural network models
An artificial neural network (NN) and a statistical regression model were developed to predict canopy photosynthetic rates (Pn) for 'Waldman's Green' leaf lettuce (Latuca sativa L.). All data used to develop and test the models were collected for crop stands grown hydroponically and under controlled-environment conditions. In the NN and regression models, canopy Pn was predicted as a function of three independent variables: shootzone CO2 concentration (600 to 1500 micromoles mol-1), photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) (600 to 1100 micromoles m-2 s-1), and canopy age (10 to 20 days after planting). The models were used to determine the combinations of CO2 and PPF setpoints required each day to maintain maximum canopy Pn. The statistical model (a third-order polynomial) predicted Pn more accurately than the simple NN (a three-layer, fully connected net). Over an 11-day validation period, average percent difference between predicted and actual Pn was 12.3% and 24.6% for the statistical and NN models, respectively. Both models lost considerable accuracy when used to determine relatively long-range Pn predictions (> or = 6 days into the future).
Non-NASA Center↗
Exploring Flooded Fraction Prediction through Machine Learning Models Focusing on Medical Infrastructure in the Southeast U.S. Coastal Areas
Rising sea levels due to climate change increasingly threaten medical infrastructure through flooding. This study develops machine learning models to predict flood exposure for 11,508 medical facilities in the southeastern coastal regions of the United States by integrating datasets including meteorological, hydrological, topographic, and geological data, the Natural Risk Index, and historical flood records from NASA, HIFLD, and FEMA. Six regression models, namely Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbors, XGBoost, and Artificial Neural Networks, are trained using 16 explanatory variables identified through literature review and correlation analysis. Data preprocessing employs the SMOGN for class imbalance and Winsorization for outliers. Model performance is evaluated using MAE, MSE, and RMSE, with Random Forest and XGBoost models achieving the highest performance (MSE of 2.58e-5 and 3.69e-5, respectively). This multifactorial approach allows the models to capture complex flood-influencing relationships, enhancing adaptability and performance across geographic regions. Future work focuses on expanding across the U.S. and developing a near real-time flood monitoring system.
Jihoon Chung↗
Application of artificial neural networks in hydrological modeling: A case study of runoff simulation of a Himalayan glacier basin
The simulation of runoff from a Himalayan Glacier basin using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is presented. The performance of the ANN model is found to be superior to the Energy Balance Model and the Multiple Regression model. The RMS Error is used as the figure of merit for judging the performance of the three models, and the RMS Error for the ANN model is the latest of the three models. The ANN is faster in learning and exhibits excellent system generalization characteristics.
Buch, A. M.↗
Soil Salinity Level Assessment and Prediction Integrating UAV-borne Hyperspectral Imaging and Machine Learning Algorithms to Combat Desertification
In response to the ongoing global food crisis, the United Nations has identified “Zero Hunger” as one of its Sustainable Development Goals. A central contributor to the crisis is the process in which agricultural lands go through desertification. Research has shown a direct correlation between soil salinity and desertification - increased salinity levels indicate a higher risk for desertification. Furthermore, researchers have explored various techniques to map soil salinity, but these methods are oftentimes inefficient and don’t address future salinity predictions. To improve desertification monitoring, soil salinity can be observed via hyperspectral imaging on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to predict the risk of agricultural desertification using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques. A significant gap exists in past research that applies ML and imaging techniques to soil salinity: convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and regression models are rarely leveraged together, despite the efficiency and accuracy of these models. To compensate for this gap, the proposed system leverages the use of these AI and ML models to improve soil assessment and prediction techniques. This approach involves three steps - data collection, image analysis, and future prediction. Using hyperspectral cameras on UAVs to collect the data from the region, a trained CNN model will output estimated soil salinity levels at a specific time. The estimations will then be analyzed by a regression model to assess the accuracy of future soil salinity predictions. The proposed system will identify regions at risk of desertification to help farmers mitigate agricultural loss, in turn helping alleviate the food crisis.
UAV systems↗
LAI inversion from optical reflectance using a neural network trained with a multiple scattering model
The inversion of the leaf area index (LAI) canopy parameter from optical spectral reflectance measurements is obtained using a backpropagation artificial neural network trained using input-output pairs generated by a multiple scattering reflectance model. The problem of LAI estimation over sparse canopies (LAI < 1.0) with varying soil reflectance backgrounds is particularly difficult. Standard multiple regression methods applied to canopies within a single homogeneous soil type yield good results but perform unacceptably when applied across soil boundaries, resulting in absolute percentage errors of >1000 percent for low LAI. Minimization methods applied to merit functions constructed from differences between measured reflectances and predicted reflectances using multiple-scattering models are unacceptably sensitive to a good initial guess for the desired parameter. In contrast, the neural network reported generally yields absolute percentage errors of <30 percent when weighting coefficients trained on one soil type were applied to predicted canopy reflectance at a different soil background.
Smith, James A.↗
NASA Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research: South Carolina
The use of an appropriate relationship model is critical for reliable prediction of future urban growth. Identification of proper variables and mathematic functions and determination of the weights or coefficients are the key tasks for building such a model. Although the conventional logistic regression model is appropriate for handing land use problems, it appears insufficient to address the issue of interdependency of the predictor variables. This study used an alternative approach to simulation and modeling urban growth using artificial neural networks. It developed an operational neural network model trained using a robust backpropagation method. The model was applied in the Myrtle Beach region of South Carolina, and tested with both global datasets and areal datasets to examine the strength of both regional models and areal models. The results indicate that the neural network model not only has many theoretic advantages over other conventional mathematic models in representing the complex urban systems, but also is practically superior to the logistic model in its capability to predict urban growth with better - accuracy and less variation. The neural network model is particularly effective in terms of successfully identifying urban patterns in the rural areas where the logistic model often falls short. It was also found from the area-based tests that there are significant intra-regional differentiations in urban growth with different rules and rates. This suggests that the global modeling approach, or one model for the entire region, may not be adequate for simulation of a urban growth at the regional scale. Future research should develop methods for identification and subdivision of these areas and use a set of area-based models to address the issues of multi-centered, intra- regionally differentiated urban growth.
Sutton, Michael A.↗
Hybrid NN/SVM Computational System for Optimizing Designs
A computational method and system based on a hybrid of an artificial neural network (NN) and a support vector machine (SVM) (see figure) has been conceived as a means of maximizing or minimizing an objective function, optionally subject to one or more constraints. Such maximization or minimization could be performed, for example, to optimize solve a data-regression or data-classification problem or to optimize a design associated with a response function. A response function can be considered as a subset of a response surface, which is a surface in a vector space of design and performance parameters. A typical example of a design problem that the method and system can be used to solve is that of an airfoil, for which a response function could be the spatial distribution of pressure over the airfoil. In this example, the response surface would describe the pressure distribution as a function of the operating conditions and the geometric parameters of the airfoil. The use of NNs to analyze physical objects in order to optimize their responses under specified physical conditions is well known. NN analysis is suitable for multidimensional interpolation of data that lack structure and enables the representation and optimization of a succession of numerical solutions of increasing complexity or increasing fidelity to the real world. NN analysis is especially useful in helping to satisfy multiple design objectives. Feedforward NNs can be used to make estimates based on nonlinear mathematical models. One difficulty associated with use of a feedforward NN arises from the need for nonlinear optimization to determine connection weights among input, intermediate, and output variables. It can be very expensive to train an NN in cases in which it is necessary to model large amounts of information. Less widely known (in comparison with NNs) are support vector machines (SVMs), which were originally applied in statistical learning theory. In terms that are necessarily oversimplified to fit the scope of this article, an SVM can be characterized as an algorithm that (1) effects a nonlinear mapping of input vectors into a higher-dimensional feature space and (2) involves a dual formulation of governing equations and constraints. One advantageous feature of the SVM approach is that an objective function (which one seeks to minimize to obtain coefficients that define an SVM mathematical model) is convex, so that unlike in the cases of many NN models, any local minimum of an SVM model is also a global minimum.
Rai, Man Mohan↗
Aero-Engines AI - A Machine-Learning App for Aircraft Engine Concepts Assessment
Effective deployment of machine-learning (ML) models could drive a high level of efficiency in aircraft engine conceptual design. Aero-Engines AI is a user-friendly app that has been created to deploy trained machine-learning (ML) models to assess aircraft engine concepts. It was created using tkinter, a GUI (graphical user interface) module that is built into the standard Python library. Employing tkinter greatly facilitates the sharing of ML application as an executable file which can be run on Windows machines (without the need to have Python or any library installed). The app gets user input for a turbofan design, preprocesses the input data, and deploys trained ML models to predict turbofan thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC), engine weight, core size, and turbomachinery stage-counts. The ML predictive models were built by employing supervised deep-learning and K-nearest neighbor regression algorithms to study patterns in an existing open-source database of production and research turbofan engines. They were trained, cross-validated, and tested in Keras, an open-source neural networks API (application programming interface) written in Python, with TensorFlow (Google open-source artificial intelligence library) serving as the backend engine. The smooth deployment of these ML models using the app shows that Aero-Engines AI is an easy-touse and a time-saving tool for aircraft engine design-space exploration during the conceptual design stage. Current version of the app focuses on the performance prediction of conventional turbofans. However, the scope of the app can easily be expanded to include other engine types (such as turboshaft and hybrid-electric systems) after their ML models are developed. Overall, the use of a machine-learning app for aircraft engine concept assessment represents a promising area of development in aircraft engine conceptual design.
machine learning↗
Aero-Engines AI - A Machine-Learning App for Aircraft Engine Concepts Assessment
Effective deployment of machine-learning (ML) models could drive a high level of efficiency in aircraft engine conceptual design. Aero-Engines AI is a user-friendly app that has been created to deploy trained machine-learning (ML) models to assess aircraft engine concepts. It was created using tkinter, a GUI (graphical user interface) module that is built into the standard Python library. Employing tkinter greatly facilitates the sharing of ML application as an executable file which can be run on Windows machines (without the need to have Python or any library installed). The app gets user input for a turbofan design, preprocesses the input data, and deploys trained ML models to predict turbofan thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC), engine weight, core size, and turbomachinery stage-counts. The ML predictive models were built by employing supervised deep-learning and K-nearest neighbor regression algorithms to study patterns in an existing open-source database of production and research turbofan engines. They were trained, cross-validated, and tested in Keras, an open-source neural networks API (application programming interface) written in Python, with TensorFlow (Google open-source artificial intelligence library) serving as the backend engine. The smooth deployment of these ML models using the app shows that Aero-Engines AI is an easy-touse and a time-saving tool for aircraft engine design-space exploration during the conceptual design stage. Current version of the app focuses on the performance prediction of conventional turbofans. However, the scope of the app can easily be easily expanded to include other engine types (such as turboshaft and hybrid-electric systems) after their ML models are developed. Overall, the use of a machine-learning app for aircraft engine concept assessment represents a promising area of development in aircraft engine conceptual design.
machine learning↗
Physics Informed Neural Nets for Systems Health Management
To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Development in data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. The research work presents application of physics-informed neural nets application to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.
Physics Informed↗