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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Predictability Associated with Land Surface Moisture States: Studies with the NSIPP System

Hydrologists have long speculated that soil moisture information can be used to increase skill in monthly to seasonal forecast systems. For this to be true, though, three conditions must be satisfied: (1) an imposed initial soil moisture anomaly in the forecast system must have some memory, so that it persists into the forecast period; (2) the modeled atmosphere must respond in a predictable way to the persisted anomaly; and (3) the forecast model must correctly represent both the soil moisture memory and the atmospheric response as they occur in nature. In this short paper, we review some recent work at NSIPP (NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project) that addresses all three conditions.

Koster, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Analysis of a Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Model Using Measured Jet Far-Field Noise Data

A code for predicting supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise was assessed using a database containing noise measurements of a jet issuing from a convergent nozzle. The jet was operated at 24 conditions covering six fully expanded Mach numbers with four total temperature ratios. To enable comparisons of the predicted shock-associated noise component spectra with data, the measured total jet noise spectra were separated into mixing noise and shock-associated noise component spectra. Comparisons between predicted and measured shock-associated noise component spectra were used to identify deficiencies in the prediction model. Proposed revisions to the model, based on a study of the overall sound pressure levels for the shock-associated noise component of the measured data, a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters with emphasis on the definition of the convection velocity parameter, and a least-squares fit of the predicted to the measured shock-associated noise component spectra, resulted in a new definition for the source strength spectrum in the model. An error analysis showed that the average error in the predicted spectra was reduced by as much as 3.5 dB for the revised model relative to the average error for the original model.

Dahl, Milo D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Analysis of a Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Model Using Measured Jet Far-Field Noise Data

A code for predicting supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise was assessed us- ing a database containing noise measurements of a jet issuing from a convergent nozzle. The jet was operated at 24 conditions covering six fully expanded Mach numbers with four total temperature ratios. To enable comparisons of the predicted shock-associated noise component spectra with data, the measured total jet noise spectra were separated into mixing noise and shock-associated noise component spectra. Comparisons between predicted and measured shock-associated noise component spectra were used to identify de ciencies in the prediction model. Proposed revisions to the model, based on a study of the overall sound pressure levels for the shock-associated noise component of the mea- sured data, a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters with emphasis on the de nition of the convection velocity parameter, and a least-squares t of the predicted to the mea- sured shock-associated noise component spectra, resulted in a new de nition for the source strength spectrum in the model. An error analysis showed that the average error in the predicted spectra was reduced by as much as 3.5 dB for the revised model relative to the average error for the original model.

Dahl, Milo D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A survey of the broadband shock associated noise prediction methods

Several different prediction methods to estimate the broadband shock associated noise of a supersonic jet are introduced and compared with experimental data at various test conditions. The nozzle geometries considered for comparison include a convergent and a convergent-divergent nozzle, both axisymmetric. Capabilities and limitations of prediction methods in incorporating the two nozzle geometries, flight effect, and temperature effect are discussed. Predicted noise field shows the best agreement for a convergent nozzle geometry under static conditions. Predicted results for nozzles in flight show larger discrepancies from data and more dependable flight data are required for further comparison. Qualitative effects of jet temperature, as observed in experiment, are reproduced in predicted results.

Kim, Chan M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A survey of the broadband shock associated noise prediction methods

Several different prediction methods to estimate the broadband shock associated noise of a supersonic jet are introduced and compared with experimental data at various test conditions. The nozzle geometries considered for comparison include a convergent and a convergent-divergent nozzle, both axisymmetric. Capabilities and limitations of prediction methods in incorporating the two nozzle geometries, flight effect, and temperature effect are discussed. Predicted noise field shows the best agreement for a convergent nozzle geometry under static conditions. Predicted results for nozzles in flight show larger discrepancies from data and more dependable flight data are required for further comparison. Qualitative effects of jet temperature, as observed in experiment, are reproduced in predicted results.

Kim, Chan M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Effect of Nondeterministic Parameters on Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Modeling

Engineering applications for aircraft noise prediction contain models for physical phenomenon that enable solutions to be computed quickly. These models contain parameters that have an uncertainty not accounted for in the solution. To include uncertainty in the solution, nondeterministic computational methods are applied. Using prediction models for supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise, fixed model parameters are replaced by probability distributions to illustrate one of these methods. The results show the impact of using nondeterministic parameters both on estimating the model output uncertainty and on the model spectral level prediction. In addition, a global sensitivity analysis is used to determine the influence of the model parameters on the output, and to identify the parameters with the least influence on model output.

Dahl, Milo D.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Cumulative fade statistics and prediction methods associated with the COMSTAR beacon signal at 28.56 GHz

The paper presents cumulative fade statistics for the period April 1977 to March 1978 and reviews the rain attenuation predictive efforts using radar and disdrometer data for the summer of 1977. Attention is given to the receiving and radar systems as well as the disdrometer-raingage system. Discussion of the fade statistics covers the yearly, monthly and time of day statistics. Consideration is given to measured and predicted attenuation events, measured and predicted probability distributions as well as an empirical calibration adjustment. It is noted that in spite of many reasons for noncorrelation, the radar results do correlate well. Finally, it is concluded that the results demonstrate the utility of using radar coupled with disdrometer measurements for predicting individual fade events as well as long term fade distributions associated with satellite communications through rain.

Goldhirsh, J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing and Predicting Effort Associated with Finding and Fixing Software Faults

Context: Software developers spend a significant amount of time fixing faults. However, not many papers have addressed the actual effort needed to fix software faults. Objective: The objective of this paper is twofold: (1) analysis of the effort needed to fix software faults and how it was affected by several factors and (2) prediction of the level of fix implementation effort based on the information provided in software change requests. Method: The work is based on data related to 1200 failures, extracted from the change tracking system of a large NASA mission. The analysis includes descriptive and inferential statistics. Predictions are made using three supervised machine learning algorithms and three sampling techniques aimed at addressing the imbalanced data problem. Results: Our results show that (1) 83% of the total fix implementation effort was associated with only 20% of failures. (2) Both safety critical failures and post-release failures required three times more effort to fix compared to non-critical and pre-release counterparts, respectively. (3) Failures with fixes spread across multiple components or across multiple types of software artifacts required more effort. The spread across artifacts was more costly than spread across components. (4) Surprisingly, some types of faults associated with later life-cycle activities did not require significant effort. (5) The level of fix implementation effort was predicted with 73% overall accuracy using the original, imbalanced data. Using oversampling techniques improved the overall accuracy up to 77%. More importantly, oversampling significantly improved the prediction of the high level effort, from 31% to around 85%. Conclusions: This paper shows the importance of tying software failures to changes made to fix all associated faults, in one or more software components and/or in one or more software artifacts, and the benefit of studying how the spread of faults and other factors affect the fix implementation effort.

software fix implementation effort↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Genomic and Phenotypic Associations to Predict Human Sensitivity to SpaceRadiation

High-linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation is a major health hazard for astronauts who will be exposed to galactic cosmic rays during upcoming lunar and Mars missions. Predicting and mitigating this risk requires understanding the factors underlying individual radiation sensitivity. We started to address this challenge by identifying the genomic and phenotypic associations with sensitivity to low and high-LET ionizing radiation ex vivo in over 750 healthy human donors. We exposed primary human blood mononuclear cells to simulated galactic cosmic ray components: 350MeV/n 28Si, 350MeV/n 40Ar and 600MeV/n 56Fe particles, at 1.1 and 3 particles/100 sq.m fluences, as well as 0.1 Gy and 1 Gy doses of gamma rays, and analyzed the outcomes at 4 and 24 hours post-irradiation. We quantified DNA damage and repair responses based on 53BP1+ radiation-induced foci formation, together with oxidative stress and changes in secreted factors including immune cytokines and exosomes. We also analyzed phenotypic associations with spontaneous DNA repair foci at baseline prior to irradiation. We identified an increase in spontaneous DNA repair associated with age and latent viral infection, and observed that human spontaneous DNA repair foci at baseline can serve as a negative predictor of DNA repair and immunoregulatory cytokine production after irradiation. Furthermore, we observed a wide variability of subject- and LET-dependent radiation responses, with radiation-induced DNA repair foci increasing by dose and LET, and high-LET particle radiation resulting in more residual DNA damage compared to low-LET particles and gamma rays. We have developed multiple metrics to quantify human radio sensitivity across the spectrum of conditions. Here we present their dependence on radiation quality and phenotypic variables, including an age-dependent decrease in DNA repair after irradiation, and genomic associations with radio sensitivity based on low-coverage whole genome sequencing. We anticipate that our work will pave the way for understanding the spectrum of human radio sensitivity and identifying targets for countermeasure development to reduce DNA and cellular damage and radiation carcinogenesis during deep space exploration.

GWAS radiation human↗
NASA NTRS1987

IRAS known asteroid prediction and association

Techniques and procedures employed to obtain data concerning the known asteroids from IRAS observations are discussed. The IRAS observations covered 95 percent of the sky with at least four scans of the telescope field of view. A search was first carried out for geometrical intersections of the trajectories of a given asteroid and the telescope boresight, following which a matched sighting was sought for each such intersection among the actual IRAS point source detections. By using ground based measurements of visual magnitudes, IRAS observations of IR brightness, and a thermal model, albedos and diameters have been computed for 1,822 known asteroids, increasing the amount of this kind of information by about an order of magnitude.

Kia, Tooraj↗
NASA NTRS2013

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Analysis of Orbital Conjunction Data

We propose a Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for analysis of commonly available predictions associated with spacecraft conjunctions. Such predictions generally consist of a relative state and relative state error covariance at the time of closest approach, under the assumption that prediction errors are Gaussian. We show that under these circumstances, the likelihood ratio of the Wald test reduces to an especially simple form, involving the current best estimate of collision probability, and a similar estimate of collision probability that is based on prior assumptions about the likelihood of collision.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗
NASA NTRS2012

In-Situ Nondestructive Evaluation of Kevlar(Registered Trademark)and Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composite Micromechanics for Improved Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel Health Monitoring

NASA has been faced with recertification and life extension issues for epoxy-impregnated Kevlar 49 (K/Ep) and carbon (C/Ep) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) used in various systems on the Space Shuttle and International Space Station, respectively. Each COPV has varying criticality, damage and repair histories, time at pressure, and pressure cycles. COPVs are of particular concern due to the insidious and catastrophic burst-before-leak failure mode caused by stress rupture (SR) of the composite overwrap. SR life has been defined [1] as the minimum time during which the composite maintains structural integrity considering the combined effects of stress level(s), time at stress level(s), and associated environment. SR has none of the features of predictability associated with metal pressure vessels, such as crack geometry, growth rate and size, or other features that lend themselves to nondestructive evaluation (NDE). In essence, the variability or surprise factor associated with SR cannot be eliminated. C/Ep COPVs are also susceptible to impact damage that can lead to reduced burst pressure even when the amount of damage to the COPV is below the visual detection threshold [2], thus necessitating implementation of a mechanical damage control plan [1]. Last, COPVs can also fail prematurely due to material or design noncompliance. In each case (SR, impact or noncompliance), out-of-family behavior is expected leading to a higher probability of failure at a given stress, hence, greater uncertainty in performance. For these reasons, NASA has been actively engaged in research to develop NDE methods that can be used during post-manufacture qualification, in-service inspection, and in-situ structural health monitoring. Acoustic emission (AE) is one of the more promising NDE techniques for detecting and monitoring, in real-time, the strain energy release and corresponding stress-wave propagation produced by actively growing flaws and defects in composite materials [3,4,5,6,7,8]. To gain further insight into the mechanisms responsible for composite rupture, broadband modal acoustic emission analysis was used. Also, since AE data reduction proved to be very time consuming, specialized data reduction software was written to automate the process.

Waller, Jess↗
NASA NTRS1993

Chemical differentiation, thermal evolution, and catastrophic overturn on Venus: Predictions and geologic observations

Observations from Magellan show that: (1) the surface of Venus is generally geologically young, (2) there is no evidence for widespread recent crustal spreading or subduction, (3) the crater population permits the hypothesis that the surface is in production, and (4) relatively few impact craters appear to be embayed by volcanic deposits suggesting that the volcanic flux has drastically decreased as a function of time. These observations have led to consideration of hypotheses suggesting that the geological history of Venus may have changed dramatically as a function of time due to general thermal evolution, and/or thermal and chemical evolution of a depleted mantle layer, perhaps punctuated by catastrophic overturn of upper layers or episodic plate tectonics. We have previously examined the geological implications of some of these models, and here we review the predictions associated with two periods of Venus history. Stationary thick lithosphere and depleted mantle layer, and development of regional to global development of regional to global instabilities, and compare these predictions to the geological characteristics of Venus revealed by Magellan.

Head, James W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Soil Moisture Memory in Climate Models

Water balance considerations at the soil surface lead to an equation that relates the autocorrelation of soil moisture in climate models to (1) seasonality in the statistics of the atmospheric forcing, (2) the variation of evaporation with soil moisture, (3) the variation of runoff with soil moisture, and (4) persistence in the atmospheric forcing, as perhaps induced by land atmosphere feedback. Geographical variations in the relative strengths of these factors, which can be established through analysis of model diagnostics and which can be validated to a certain extent against observations, lead to geographical variations in simulated soil moisture memory and thus, in effect, to geographical variations in seasonal precipitation predictability associated with soil moisture. The use of the equation to characterize controls on soil moisture memory is demonstrated with data from the modeling system of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Some effects of thermal-cycle-induced deformation in rocket thrust chambers

The deformation process observed in the hot gas side wall of rocket combustion chambers was investigaged for three different liner materials. Five thrust chambers were cycled to failure by using hydrogen and oxygen as propellants at a chamber pressure of 4.14 MN/cu m. The deformation was observed nondestructively at midlife points and destructively after failure occurred. The cyclic life results are presented with an accompanying discussion about the problems of life prediction associated with the types of failures encountered in the present work. Data indicating the deformation of the thrust chamber liner as cycles are accumulated are presented for each of the test thrust chambers. From these deformation data and observation of the failure sites it is evident that modeling the failure process as classic low cycle thermal fatigue is inadequate as a life prediction method.

Hannum, N. P.↗