Numerical Simulations of Laboratory‐Scale, Hypervelocity‐Impact Experiments for Asteroid‐Deflection Code Validation
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
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Asteroid deflection: Do multiple impacts from a split-impactor increase total momentum transfer?
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Westra, Alexander (ORCID:000000017277840X)↗
Analytic_Deflection_of_Asteroids_by_NEDs
This package evaluates an analytic formula for the change in velocity imparted to an asteroid by a 1 or 2 keV black body source given the radius of the asteroid, the standoff distance, the x-ray yield, the density of the asteroid, and the fit coefficients for the 1 or 2 keV black body source (provided in the module). Three variations of the formula are given; the "original" form, the "modified" form that accounts for the angle of incidence in calculating the melt depth, and a form based on an "impulse" model. Each formula is fit to simulations of spherical asteroids of uniform composition illuminated by black body x-rays.
Managan, RobertA↗
Momentum Transfer from the DART Mission Kinetic Impact on Asteroid Dimorphos
The NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission performed a kinetic impact on asteroid Dimorphos, the satellite of the binary asteroid (65803) Didymos, at 23:14 UTC on 26 September 2022 as a planetary defence test. DART was the first hypervelocity impact experiment on an asteroid at size and velocity scales relevant to planetary defence, intended to validate kinetic impact as a means of asteroid deflection. Here we report a determination of the momentum transferred to an asteroid by kinetic impact. On the basis of the change in the binary orbit period, we find an instantaneous reduction in Dimorphos’s along-track orbital velocity component of 2.70 ± 0.10 mm s -1 , indicating enhanced momentum transfer due to recoil from ejecta streams produced by the impact. For a Dimorphos bulk density range of 1,500 to 3,300 kg m -3 , we find that the expected value of the momentum enhancement factor, β, ranges between 2.2 and 4.9, depending on the mass of Dimorphos. If Dimorphos and Didymos are assumed to have equal densities of 2,400 kg m -3 , β=3.61$^{+0.19}_{-0.25}$(1σ) . These β values indicate that substantially more momentum was transferred to Dimorphos from the escaping impact ejecta than was incident with DART. Therefore, the DART kinetic impact was highly effective in deflecting the asteroid Dimorphos.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Predicting Asteroid Material Properties from a DART-like Kinetic Impact
Abstract NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is the first full-scale test of the kinetic impactor method for asteroid deflection, in which a spacecraft intentionally impacts an asteroid to change its trajectory. DART represents an important first step for planetary defense technology demonstration, providing a realistic assessment of the effectiveness of the kinetic impact approach on a near-Earth asteroid. The momentum imparted to the asteroid is transferred from the impacting spacecraft and enhanced by the momentum of material ejected from the impact site. However, the magnitude of the ejecta contribution is dependent on the material properties of the target. These properties, such as strength and shear modulus, are unknown for the DART target asteroid, Dimorphos, as well as most asteroids since such properties are difficult to characterize remotely. This study examines how hydrocode simulations can be used to estimate material properties from information available post-impact, specifically the asteroid size and shape, the velocity and properties of the impacting spacecraft, and the final velocity change imparted to the asteroid. Across >300 three-dimensional simulations varying seven material parameters describing the asteroid, we found many combinations of properties could reproduce a particular asteroid velocity. Additional observations, such as asteroid mass or crater size, are required to further constrain properties like asteroid strength or outcomes like the momentum enhancement provided by impact ejecta. Our results demonstrate the vital importance of having as much knowledge as possible prior to an impact mission, with key material parameters being the asteroid’s mass, porosity, strength, and elastic properties.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Achievement of the Planetary Defense Investigations of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission
NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was the first to demonstrate asteroid deflection, and the mission's Level 1 requirements guided its planetary defense investigations. Here, we summarize DART's achievement of those requirements. On 2022 September 26, the DART spacecraft impacted Dimorphos, the secondary member of the Didymos near-Earth asteroid binary system, demonstrating an autonomously navigated kinetic impact into an asteroid with limited prior knowledge for planetary defense. Months of subsequent Earth-based observations showed that the binary orbital period was changed by –33.24 minutes, with two independent analysis methods each reporting a 1 σ uncertainty of 1.4 s. Dynamical models determined that the momentum enhancement factor, β , resulting from DART's kinetic impact test is between 2.4 and 4.9, depending on the mass of Dimorphos, which remains the largest source of uncertainty. Over five dozen telescopes across the globe and in space, along with the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids, have contributed to DART's investigations. These combined investigations have addressed topics related to the ejecta, dynamics, impact event, and properties of both asteroids in the binary system. A year following DART's successful impact into Dimorphos, the mission has achieved its planetary defense requirements, although work to further understand DART's kinetic impact test and the Didymos system will continue. In particular, ESA's Hera mission is planned to perform extensive measurements in 2027 during its rendezvous with the Didymos–Dimorphos system, building on DART to advance our knowledge and continue the ongoing international collaboration for planetary defense.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
A machine-learning framework for the simulation of nuclear deflection of Planet-Killer-Asteroids
Here, as detection capabilities in astronomy have dramatically improved over the last two decades, concerns over Planet-Killer-Asteroids (PKAs) have become widespread, with nuclear weapons being proposed to destroy or deflect asteroids that are on a short-term projected collision course with Earth. Two main mitigation strategies have been proposed: • Case 1: Break up an incoming asteroid into smaller pieces that will disperse widely, resulting in smaller-scale, less detrimental, Earth-impacts or • Case 2: Deflect an incoming asteroid trajectory to avoid collision altogether. While the two strategies are not mutually exclusive, deflection is a safer strategy, ideally by harnessing all of the released energy from a nuclear device to move the asteroid as a rigid body. However, this case may not be always possible, since the strength of the energy release may break up the asteroid. In this work, the dynamical response of a PKA to a series of ultra-high energy impulses, such as those generated by nuclear devices, is formulated. A rapid iterative Discrete Element Method (DEM) method is developed to describe the deflection and potential breakup of the PKA as a function of a material bonding strength parameter within the asteroid and the magnitude of the applied impulse. The use of DEM allows for fragmentation of the PKA and the ability to compute the trajectories and distribution of the resulting debris field. Finally, a machine-learning algorithm is then developed and combined with the DEM approach to optimize the pulsation strategy for maximum possible safety and success.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Nuclear Deflection of Kilometer-Scale Asteroids Simulated using Sandia's Z Machine
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Moore, Nathan W. [Sandia National Laboratories (SN↗
NASA analysis of space mission options for the 2025 planetary defense conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat scenario
The 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise is being conducted in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), exercising SMPAG's processes for assessing space mission options and communicating to decision makers. Here, in this paper, we describe the work performed by our NASA-led team and present the results we contributed to the SMPAG effort for the exercise. Our NASA-led team assessed mission options for asteroid reconnaissance (flyby and rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption using several viable techniques: kinetic impactors, ion beam deflection, and nuclear explosive devices. Our simulations and analyses considered how much change-in-velocity an asteroid can tolerate before fragmentation onset, and we worked towards establishing requirements for robustly disrupting an asteroid. Heuristics informed by the simulation results are incorporated into optimization of deflection and disruption mission campaign options. Finally, we make some observations about useful generalizations from these results with potential applicability to any planetary defense scenario.
Asteroid deflection↗
Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.
Asteroid deflection↗
Elliptical ejecta of asteroid Dimorphos is due to its surface curvature
Kinetic deflection is a planetary defense technique delivering spacecraft momentum to a small body to deviate its course from Earth. The deflection efficiency depends on the impactor and target. Among them, the contribution of global curvature was poorly understood. The ejecta plume created by NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test impact on its target asteroid, Dimorphos, exhibited an elliptical shape almost aligned along its north-south direction. Here, we identify that this elliptical ejecta plume resulted from the target’s curvature, reducing the momentum transfer to 44 ± 10% along the orbit track compared to an equivalent impact on a flat target. We also find lower kinetic deflection of impacts on smaller near-Earth objects due to higher curvature. A solution to mitigate low deflection efficiency is to apply multiple low-energy impactors rather than a single high-energy impactor. Rapid reconnaissance to acquire a target’s properties before deflection enables determining the proper locations and timing of impacts.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
X-Ray Energy Deposition Model for Simulating Asteroid Response to a Nuclear Planetary Defense Mitigation Mission
Abstract In the event of a potentially catastrophic asteroid impact, with sufficient warning time, deploying a nuclear device remains a powerful option for planetary defense if a kinetic impactor or other means of deflection proves insufficient. Predicting the effectiveness of a potential nuclear deflection or disruption mission depends on accurate multiphysics simulations of the device's X-ray energy deposition into the asteroid and the resulting material ablation. The relevant physics in these simulations span many orders of magnitude, require a variety of different complex physics packages, and are computationally expensive. Having an efficient and accurate way of modeling this system is necessary for exploring a mission's sensitivity to the asteroid's range of physical properties. To expedite future simulations, we present a completed X-ray energy deposition model developed using the radiation-hydrodynamics code Kull that can be used to initiate a nuclear mitigation mission calculation. The model spans a wide variety of possible mission initial conditions: four different asteroid-like materials at a range of porosities, two different source spectra, and a broad range of radiation fluences, source durations, and angles of incidence. Using blowoff momentum as the primary metric, the model-initiated simulation results match the full radiation-hydrodynamics results to within 10%.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NED_Asteroid_Energy_Deposition
In the event of a potentially catastrophic asteroid impact, with sufficient warning time, deploying a nuclear device remains a powerful option for planetary defense if a kinetic impactor proves insufficient. Predicting the effectiveness of a potential nuclear deflection or disruption mission depends on accurate multiphysics simulations of the device's x-ray energy deposition into the asteroid and the resulting material ablation. These simulations span many orders of magnitude, require a variety of different complex physics packages, and are computationally expensive. Having an efficient and accurate way of modeling this system is necessary for exploring a mission's sensitivity to the asteroid's range of physical properties. To expedite future simulations, we present a completed x-ray energy deposition model developed using the radiation-hydrodynamics code Kull which can be used to initiate a nuclear mitigation mission hydrocode. The model spans a wide variety of possible mission initial conditions: four different asteroid-like materials (Silicon Dioxide, Forsterite, Iron, and Ice), two different source spectra (1 and 2 keV blackbodies), and then a broad range of radiation fluences (0.0001 to 1 kt per square meter), source durations (10 to 100 ns), and asteroid porosities (0 to 80 percent). Using blowoff momentum as the primary metric, the modelinitiated simulation results match the full radiation-hydrodynamics results to within 10 percent. Please reference the journal article: Burkey et al., X-Ray Energy Deposition Model for Simulating Asteroid Response to a Nuclear Planetary Defense Mitigation Mission, Planetary Science Journal, (2023) for more information.
Managan, RobertA↗
Physical properties of asteroid Dimorphos as derived from the DART impact
On 26 September 2022, NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully impacted Dimorphos, the natural satellite of the binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos. Numerical simulations of the impact provide a means to find the surface material properties and structures of the target that are consistent with the observed momentum deflection efficiency, ejecta cone geometry and ejected mass. Our simulation that best matches the observations indicates that Dimorphos is weak, with a cohesive strength of less than a few pascals, like asteroids (162173) Ryugu and (101955) Bennu. We find that the bulk density of Dimorphos ρ B is lower than ~2,400 kg m – 3 and that it has a low volume fraction of boulders (≲40 vol%) on the surface and in the shallow subsurface, which are consistent with data measured by the DART experiment. These findings suggest that Dimorphos is a rubble pile that might have formed through rotational mass shedding and reaccumulation from Didymos. Our simulations indicate that the DART impact caused global deformation and resurfacing of Dimorphos. ESA’s upcoming Hera mission may find a reshaped asteroid rather than a well-defined crater.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Effects of Impact and Target Parameters on the Results of a Kinetic Impactor: Predictions for the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission
Abstract The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft will impact into the asteroid Dimorphos on 2022 September 26 as a test of the kinetic impactor technique for planetary defense. The efficiency of the deflection following a kinetic impactor can be represented using the momentum enhancement factor, β , which is dependent on factors such as impact geometry and the specific target material properties. Currently, very little is known about Dimorphos and its material properties, which introduces uncertainty in the results of the deflection efficiency observables, including crater formation, ejecta distribution, and β . The DART Impact Modeling Working Group (IWG) is responsible for using impact simulations to better understand the results of the DART impact. Pre-impact simulation studies also provide considerable insight into how different properties and impact scenarios affect momentum enhancement following a kinetic impact. This insight provides a basis for predicting the effects of the DART impact and the first understanding of how to interpret results following the encounter. Following the DART impact, the knowledge gained from these studies will inform the initial simulations that will recreate the impact conditions, including providing estimates for potential material properties of Dimorphos and β resulting from DART’s impact. This paper summarizes, at a high level, what has been learned from the IWG simulations and experiments in preparation for the DART impact. While unknown, estimates for reasonable potential material properties of Dimorphos provide predictions for β of 1–5, depending on end-member cases in the strength regime.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Late-time small body disruptions for planetary defense
Here, diverting hazardous small bodies on impact trajectories with the Earth can in some circumstances be impossible without risking disrupting them. Disruption is a much more difficult planetary defense scenario to assess, being linked both to the response of the body to shock loading and the much more complicated gravitational dynamics of the fragments in the solar system relative to pure deflection scenarios. In this work we present a new simulation suite built on N-body gravitational methods that solves fragment orbits in the full gravitational system without recourse to more approximate methods. We assess the accuracy of our simulations and the simplifying assumptions we adopt to make the system tractable, and then discuss in more detail several specific, plausible planetary defense scenarios based on real close encounters. We find that disruption can be a very effective planetary defense strategy even for very late (sub-year) interventions, and should be considered an effective backup strategy should preferred methods, which require long warning times, fail.
42 ENGINEERING↗