Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “asteroids: general”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Asteroids seen by JWST-MIRI: Radiometric size, distance, and orbit constraints

Infrared measurements of asteroids are crucial for the determination of physical and thermal properties of individual objects, and for understanding the small-body populations in the solar system as a whole. However, standard radiometric methods can only be applied if the orbit of an object is known, hence its position at the time of the observation. With JWST-MIRI observations the situation will change and many unknown, often very small, solar system objects will be detected. Later orbit determinations are difficult due to the faintness of the objects and the lack of dedicated follow-up concepts. We present MIRI observations of the outer-belt asteroid (10920) 1998 BC1 and an unknown object, detected in all nine MIRI bands in close apparent proximity to (10920). We developed a new method called STM-ORBIT to interpret the multi-band measurements without knowing the object’s true location. The power of the new technique is that it determines the most-likely heliocentric and observer-centric distance and phase angle ranges, allowing us to make a radiometric size estimate. The application to the MIRI fluxes of (10920) was used to validate the method. It leads to a confirmation of the known radiometric size-albedo solution, and puts constraints on the asteroid’s location and orbit in agreement with its true orbit. To back up the validation of the method, we obtained additional ground-based light curve observations of (10920), combined with Gaia data, which indicate a very elongated object (a/b ≥ 1.5), with a spin-pole at (λ, β) ecl = (178°, +81°), with an estimated error of about 20°, and a rotation period of 4.861191 ± 0.000015 h. A thermophysical study of all available JWST-MIRI and WISE measurements leads to a size of 14.5–16.5 km (diameter of an equal-volume sphere), a geometric albedo pV between 0.05 and 0.10, and a thermal inertia in the range 9–35 (best value 15) J m -2 s -0.5 K -1 . For the newly discovered MIRI object, the STM-ORBIT method revealed a size of 100–230 m. The new asteroid must be on a low-inclination orbit (0.7° < i < 2.0°) and it was located in the inner main-belt region during JWST observations. A beaming parameter η larger than 1.0 would push the size even below 100 meters, a main-belt regime that has escaped IR detections so far. This kind of MIRI observations can therefore contribute to formation and evolution studies via classical size-frequency studies, which are currently limited to objects larger than about one kilometer in size. We estimate that MIRI frames with pointings close to the ecliptic and short integration times of only a few seconds will always include a few asteroids; most of them will be unknown objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A dehydrated space-weathered skin cloaking the hydrated interior of Ryugu

Abstract Without a protective atmosphere, space-exposed surfaces of airless Solar System bodies gradually experience an alteration in composition, structure and optical properties through a collective process called space weathering. The return of samples from near-Earth asteroid (162173) Ryugu by Hayabusa2 provides the first opportunity for laboratory study of space-weathering signatures on the most abundant type of inner solar system body: a C-type asteroid, composed of materials largely unchanged since the formation of the Solar System. Weathered Ryugu grains show areas of surface amorphization and partial melting of phyllosilicates, in which reduction from Fe 3+ to Fe 2+ and dehydration developed. Space weathering probably contributed to dehydration by dehydroxylation of Ryugu surface phyllosilicates that had already lost interlayer water molecules and to weakening of the 2.7 µm hydroxyl (–OH) band in reflectance spectra. For C-type asteroids in general, this indicates that a weak 2.7 µm band can signify space-weathering-induced surface dehydration, rather than bulk volatile loss.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Absolute colors and phase coefficients of asteroids

Context: We use the phase curves of small bodies to measure absolute magnitudes and, together with complementary theoretical and laboratory results, to understand the micro- and macroscopic properties of their surfaces. Although we can observe asteroids up to phase angles of about 30 deg, the range of phase angles covered by outer Solar System objects usually does not go further than 7-10 deg for centaurs and 2 deg for trans-Neptunian objects, and a linear relation between magnitude and phase angle may be assumed. Aims: We aim to directly compare data taken for objects in the inner Solar System (inside the orbit of Jupiter) with data for centaurs and trans-Neptunian objects. Methods: We use the SLOAN Moving Objects Catalog (MOC) data to construct phase curves restricted to phase angles of less than or equal to 7.5 deg, which is compatible with the angles observed for the trans-Neptunian and Centaur population. We assume a linear model for the photometric behavior to obtain absolute magnitudes and phase coefficients in the ugirz, V, and R filters. Results: We obtain absolute magnitudes in seven filters for over 4000 objects. Our comparison with outer Solar System objects suggests the surfaces have a common property: intrinsically redder objects become blue with increasing phase angle, while the opposite happens for intrinsically bluer objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring of asteroids in cometary orbits and activated asteroids through archival images and new observations

Transitional objects are minor bodies that share some characteristics with asteroids and others with comets. These objects include asteroids in cometary orbits (ACOs), which behave dynamically like comets, but lack observed activity, while activated asteroids (AAs) follow typical asteroidal orbits, but have shown dust ejections. The monitoring of a set of these objects carried out in 2015 and 2016 is continued using archival images from various observatories and new data from the IMPACTON telescope in Brazil. Two techniques were applied to detect activity: (i) surface brightness profiles were compared with those of field stars to identify widening, and (ii) the magnitudes reported in the Minor Planet Center, combined with our observations, were reduced and analyzed to identify abrupt brightness increases as a function of heliocentric distance. We analyzed the surface brightness profiles of 133 ACOs and 7 AAs. To study the reduced magnitude, we obtained data from the 705 ACOs that were known at the time of the analysis. Together with the data from our previous work, our analysis covered 23% of the total known ACOs; 8 deviated slightly in the surface brightness profile, 6 brightened in the reduced magnitude, and one object is in common in both samples. A very low percentage of objects might show activity (4% of the sample with brightness profiles and <1% in the reduced magnitudes). These results would rule out a slow transition from active to inert. Regarding AAs, 4 showed activity, and 3 of them matched previously reported periods, while the data we analyzed for P/2015 X 6 were obtained 19 days before the first existing activity report. The activity episodes of these objects are very restricted in time and do not always occur in the same region of the orbit.

asteroids: general↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian constraints on the origin and geology of exoplanetary material using a population of externally polluted white dwarfs

ABSTRACT White dwarfs that have accreted planetary bodies are a powerful probe of the bulk composition of exoplanetary material. In this paper, we present a Bayesian model to explain the abundances observed in the atmospheres of 202 DZ white dwarfs by considering the heating, geochemical differentiation, and collisional processes experienced by the planetary bodies accreted, as well as gravitational sinking. The majority (>60 per cent) of systems are consistent with the accretion of primitive material. We attribute the small spread in refractory abundances observed to a similar spread in the initial planet-forming material, as seen in the compositions of nearby stars. A range in Na abundances in the pollutant material is attributed to a range in formation temperatures from below 1000 K to higher than 1400 K, suggesting that pollutant material arrives in white dwarf atmospheres from a variety of radial locations. We also find that Solar System-like differentiation is common place in exoplanetary systems. Extreme siderophile (Fe, Ni, or Cr) abundances in eight systems require the accretion of a core-rich fragment of a larger differentiated body to at least a 3σ significance, whilst one system shows evidence that it accreted a crust-rich fragment. In systems where the abundances suggest that accretion has finished (13/202), the total mass accreted can be calculated. The 13 systems are estimated to have accreted masses ranging from the mass of the Moon to half that of Vesta. Our analysis suggests that accretion continues for 11 Myrs on average.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Main belt asteroids taxonomical information from dark energy survey data

While proper orbital elements are currently available for more than 1 million asteroids, taxonomical information is still lagging behind. Surveys like SDSS-MOC4 provided preliminary information for more than 100 000 objects, but many asteroids still lack even a basic taxonomy. In this study, we use Dark Energy Survey (DES) data to provide new information on asteroid physical properties. By cross-correlating the new DES data base with other data bases, we investigate how asteroid taxonomy is reflected in DES data. While the resolution of DES data is not sufficient to distinguish between different asteroid taxonomies within the complexes, except for V-type objects, it can provide information on whether an asteroid belongs to the C- or S-complex. Here, machine learning methods optimized through the use of genetic algorithms were used to predict the labels of more than 68 000 asteroids with no prior taxonomic information. Using a high-quality, limited set of asteroids with data on gri slopes and i − z colours, we detected 409 new possible V-type asteroids. Their orbital distribution is highly consistent with that of other known V-type objects.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Effects of Realistic Impact-processed Asteroid Topology on Atmospheric Airbursts

When small asteroids (∼10–200 m) enter Earth’s atmosphere they can break up before hitting the ground, releasing a considerable amount of energy in what is known as an atmospheric airburst. To date, numerous studies have examined how an asteroid’s strength, size, shape, and entry characteristics affect the breakup process; but few have assessed the effects of heterogenous internal topologies. We present a two-step high-fidelity simulation approach, which we use to model the atmospheric breakup of asteroids with realistic impact-processed internal topologies and their associated ground effects. In the first step, we model the asteroid as it is impacted to generate an “impact-processed” topology. We then map the resulting fractures (i.e., damage field) from that simulation to the initial state of an atmospheric breakup simulation. For both phases, we use the smoothed particle hydrodynamics code Spheral++. As a demonstrative example, we apply our new simulation pipeline to a Tunguska-scale impactor (50 m diameter, 20 km s −1 entry velocity, and 45° angle) in a case study comparing impact-processed and fully intact asteroids in both planar 2D and full 3D. For sufficiently strong asteroids, we find that impact processing generally causes the asteroid to break up at higher altitudes. We also observe that impact-processed asteroids break up into smaller fragments than objects with equivalent properties that have not been impact-processed.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

The OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule re-entry: A coordinated seismo-acoustic observational campaign for the study of meteor phenomena

Objects entering Earth’s atmosphere at hypersonic velocities may generate powerful acoustic waves. Depending on atmospheric conditions and acoustic propagation paths, they may be captured using ground or balloon-borne microbarometers and microphones. Impacts into the Earth’s atmosphere by asteroids in a meter-size range are sporadic and unannounced, and thus, well-documented scientific observations of asteroids are rare and generally happen by chance. Arriving from interplanetary space at hypervelocity, spacecraft are considered analogues for low velocity meteoroids and asteroids impacting the Earth’s atmosphere, and as such provide unprecedented and unique opportunity to carry out planned observational campaigns and perform detailed studies of meteor phenomena. However, since the end of the Apollo era, only four instances of a hypersonic re-entry of an artificial body from interplanetary space with an incident speed of 11-12 km/s have been observed and studied. These were the Sample Return Capsules (SRCs) that brought physical samples of extraterrestrial material back to Earth (Genesis, Stardust, Hayabusa 1, Hayabusa 2). These re-entries were also detected by infrasound and/or seismic sensors. The next opportunity to observe an artificial meteor will be on 24 September 2023 with the re-entry of NASA’s OSIRIS-REx SRC that will bring samples of the carbonaceous near-Earth asteroid Bennu. The re-entry consists of several flight phases, including hypersonic and supersonic, providing a unique opportunity to observe these by infrasound and seismic sensors. We will discuss observational campaign efforts aimed to capture geophysical signals generated by the OSIRIS-REx SRC re-entry. This campaign utilizes an unparalleled number of instruments, both ground and airborne, strategically positioned in the immediate and extended region around the projected re-entry trajectory to maximize the scientific output.

47 - OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Limiting Behavior of Asteroid Obliquity and Spin Using a Semi-analytic Thermal Model of the YORP Effect

The Yarkovsky–O’Keefe–Radzievskii–Paddack (YORP) effect governs the spin evolution of small asteroids. The axial component of YORP, which alters the rotation rate of the asteroid, is mostly independent of its thermal inertia, while the obliquity component is very sensitive to the thermal model of the asteroid. Here, we develop a semi-analytic theory for the obliquity component of YORP. We integrate an approximate thermal model over the surface of an asteroid, and find an analytic expression for the obliquity component in terms of two YORP coefficients. This approach allows us to investigate the overall evolution of asteroid rotation state, and to generalize the results previously obtained in the case of zero thermal inertia. The proposed theory also explains how a nonzero obliquity component of YORP originates even for a symmetric asteroid, due to its finite thermal inertia. In many cases, this causes equatorial planes of asteroids to align with their orbital planes. The studied nontrivial behavior of YORP as a function of thermal model allows for a new kind of rotational equilibria, which can have important evolutionary consequences for asteroids.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Deep and Wide Twilight Survey for Asteroids Interior to Earth and Venus

We are conducting a survey using twilight time on the Dark Energy Camera with the Blanco 4 m telescope in Chile to look for objects interior to Earth's and Venus' orbits. To date we have discovered two rare Atira/Apohele asteroids, 2021 LJ4 and 2021 PH27, which have orbits completely interior to Earth's orbit. We also discovered one new Apollo-type Near Earth Object (NEO) that crosses Earth's orbit, 2022 AP7. Two of the discoveries have diameters ≳1 km. 2022 AP7 is likely the largest Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) discovered in about eight years. To date we have covered 624 square degrees of sky near to and interior to the orbit of Venus. The average images go to 21.3 mag in the r band, with the best images near 22nd mag. Our new discovery 2021 PH27 has the smallest semimajor axis known for an asteroid, 0.4617 au, and the largest general relativistic effects (53 arcsec/century) known for any body in the solar system. The survey has detected ~15% of all known Atira NEOs. We put strong constraints on any stable population of Venus co-orbital resonance objects existing, as well as the Atira and Vatira asteroid classes. These interior asteroid populations are important to complete the census of asteroids near Earth, including some of the most likely Earth impactors that cannot easily be discovered in other surveys. Comparing the actual population of asteroids found interior to Earth and Venus with those predicted to exist by extrapolating from the known population exterior to Earth is important to better understand the origin, composition, and structure of the NEO population.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tarda and Tagish Lake: Samples from the same outer Solar System asteroid and implications for D- and P-type asteroids

Here, we report a comprehensive study of the ungrouped type 2 carbonaceous chondrite, Tarda, which fell in Morocco in 2020. This meteorite exhibits substantial similarities to Tagish Lake, Wisconsin Range 91600, and Meteorite Hills 00432, which are generally considered to have originated from a D-type asteroid(s). We constrain the compositions and petrologies of the materials present in a potential sample of a D-type asteroid by reporting the petrography, bulk chemical compositions, bulk H, C, N, Cr, and Ti isotopic compositions, reflectance spectra, and in situ chemical compositions of metals, sulfides, carbonates, and FeO-poor and FeO-rich chondrule silicates of Tarda. We also present new data for Tagish Lake. We then compare Tarda with the other Tagish Lake-like meteorites. Tarda and Tagish Lake appear to be from the same parent body, as demonstrated by their similar petrologies (modal abundances, chondrule sizes), mineral compositions, bulk chemical and isotopic compositions, and reflectance spectra. While the two other Tagish Lake-like meteorites, Wisconsin Range 91600 and Meteorite Hills 00432, show some affinities to Tagish Lake and Tarda, they also share similar characteristics to the Mighei-like carbonaceous (CM) chondrites, warranting further study. Similarities in reflectance spectra suggest that P-type asteroids 65 Cybele and 76 Freia are potential parent bodies of Tarda and the Tagish Lake-like meteorites, or at least have similar surface materials. Since upcoming spacecraft missions will spectrally survey D-type, P-type, and C-type Trojan asteroids (NASA's Lucy) and spectrally study and return samples from Mars' moon Phobos (JAXA's Martian Moons eXploration mission), which is spectrally similar to D-type asteroids, these meteorites are of substantial scientific interest. Furthermore, since Tarda closely spectrally matches P-type asteroids (but compositionally matches the D-type asteroid like Tagish Lake meteorite), P-type and D-type asteroids may represent fragments of the same or similar parent bodies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Yarkovsky Drift Detections for 247 Near-Earth Asteroids

The Yarkovsky effect is a thermal process acting upon the orbits of small celestial bodies, which can cause these orbits to slowly expand or contract with time. The effect is subtle (〈da/dt〉∼10{sup −4} au My{sup −1} for a 1 km diameter object) and is thus generally difficult to measure. We analyzed both optical and radar astrometry for 600 Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) for the purpose of detecting and quantifying the Yarkovsky effect. We present 247 NEAs with measured drift rates, which is the largest published set of Yarkovsky detections. This large sample size provides an opportunity to examine the Yarkovsky effect in a statistical manner. In particular, we describe two independent population-based tests that verify the measurement of Yarkovsky orbital drift. First, we provide observational confirmation for the Yarkovsky effect’s theoretical size dependence of 1/D, where D is diameter. Second, we find that the observed ratio of negative to positive drift rates in our sample is 2.34, which, accounting for bias and sampling uncertainty, implies an actual ratio of 2.7{sub −0.7}{sup +0.3}. This ratio has a vanishingly small probability of occurring due to chance or statistical noise. The observed ratio of retrograde to prograde rotators is two times lower than the ratio expected from numerical predictions from NEA population studies and traditional assumptions about the sense of rotation of NEAs originating from various main belt escape routes. We also examine the efficiency with which solar energy is converted into orbital energy and find a median efficiency in our sample of 12%. We interpret this efficiency in terms of NEA spin and thermal properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Detailed Characterization of HR 8799's Debris Disk with ALMA in Band 7

The exoplanetary system of HR 8799 is one of the rare systems in which multiple planets have been directly imaged. Its architecture is strikingly similar to that of the solar system, with the four imaged giant planets surrounding a warm dust belt analogous to the Asteroid Belt, and themselves being surrounded by a cold dust belt analog to the Kuiper Belt. Previous observations of this cold belt with ALMA in Band 6 (1.3 mm) revealed its inner edge, but analyses of the data differ on its precise location. It was therefore unclear whether or not the outermost planet HR 8799 b was dynamically sculpting it. We present here new ALMA observations of this debris disk in Band 7 (340 GHz, 880 μm). These are the most detailed observations of this disk obtained so far, with a resolution of 1″ (40 au) and sensitivity of 9.8 μJy beam{sup −1}, which allowed us to recover the disk structure with high confidence. In order to constrain the disk morphology, we fit its emission using radiative transfer models combined with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. We find that this disk cannot be adequately represented by a single power law with sharp edges. It exhibits a smoothly rising inner edge and smoothly falling outer edge, with a peak in between, as expected from a disk that contains a high-eccentricity component, hence confirming previous findings. Whether this excited population and inner edge shape stem from the presence of an additional planet remains, however, an open question.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spin Change of Asteroid 2012 TC4 Probably by Radiation Torques

Asteroid 2012 TC4 is a small (∼10 m) near-Earth object that was observed during its Earth close approaches in 2012 and 2017. Earlier analyses of light curves revealed its excited rotation state. We collected all available photometric data from the two apparitions to reconstruct its rotation state and convex shape model. We show that light curves from 2012 and 2017 cannot be fitted with a single set of model parameters; the rotation and precession periods are significantly different for these two data sets, and they must have changed between or during the two apparitions. Nevertheless, we could fit all light curves with a dynamically self-consistent model assuming that the spin states of 2012 TC4 in 2012 and 2017 were different. To interpret our results, we developed a numerical model of its spin evolution in which we included two potentially relevant perturbations: (i) gravitational torque due to the Sun and Earth and (ii) radiation torque, known as the Yarkovsky–O’Keefe–Radzievskii–Paddack (YORP) effect. Despite our model simplicity, we found that the role of gravitational torques is negligible. Instead, we argue that the observed change of its spin state may be plausibly explained as a result of the YORP torque. To strengthen this interpretation, we verify that (i) the internal energy dissipation due to material inelasticity and (ii) an impact with a sufficiently large interplanetary particle are both highly unlikely causes of its observed spin state change. If true, this is the first case where the YORP effect has been detected for a tumbling body.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Systematics and Consequences of Comet Nucleus Outgassing Torques

Anisotropic outgassing from comets exerts a torque sufficient to rapidly change the angular momentum of the nucleus, potentially leading to rotational instability. Here, we use empirical measures of spin changes in a sample of comets to characterize the torques, and to compare them with expectations from a simple model. Both the data and the model show that the characteristic spin-up timescale, τ {sub s}, is a strong function of nucleus radius, r {sub n}. Empirically, we find that the timescale for comets (most with perihelion 1–2 au and eccentricity ∼0.5) varies as τ{sub s}∼100r{sub n}{sup 2}, where r {sub n} is expressed in kilometers, and τ {sub s} is in years. The fraction of the nucleus surface that is active varies as f{sub A}∼0.1r{sub n}{sup −2}. We find that the median value of the dimensionless moment arm of the torque is k {sub T} = 0.007 (i.e., ∼0.7% of the escaping momentum torques the nucleus), with weak (<3σ) evidence for a size dependence k{sub T}∼10{sup −3}r{sub n}{sup 2}. Sub-kilometer nuclei have spin-up timescales comparable to their orbital periods, confirming that outgassing torques are quickly capable of driving small nuclei toward rotational disruption. Torque-induced rotational instability likely accounts for the paucity of sub-kilometer short-period cometary nuclei, and for the pre-perihelion destruction of sungrazing comets. Torques from sustained outgassing on small active asteroids can rival YORP torques, even for very small (≲1 g s{sup −1}) mass-loss rates. Finally, we highlight the important role played by observational biases in the measured distributions of τ {sub s}, f {sub A}, and k {sub T}.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermophysical Modeling of 20 Themis Family Asteroids with WISE/NEOWISE Observations

Themis family is one of the largest and oldest asteroid populations in the main belt. Water ice may widely exist on the parent body (24) Themis. In this work, we employ the Advanced Thermophysical Model as well as midinfrared measurements from NASA’s Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer to explore thermal parameters of 20 Themis family members. Here we show that the average thermal inertia and geometric albedo are 39.5 ± 26.0 J m{sup −2} s{sup −1/2} K{sup −1} and 0.067 ± 0.018, respectively. The family members have a relatively moderate roughness fraction on their surfaces. We find that the relatively low albedos of Themis members are consistent with the typical values of B-type and C-type asteroids. As mentioned, the Themis family bears a very low thermal inertia, which indicates a fine and mature regolith on their surfaces. The resemblance of thermal inertia and geometric albedo of Themis members may reveal their close connection in origin and evolution. In addition, we present the compared results of thermal parameters for several prominent families.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

National Academy of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, NASA Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey (Chapter 3)

Our inner Solar System has the four terrestrial planets, Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars, along with Earth’s large Moon, two small moons of Mars, dwarf planet Ceres, numerous 100-km class asteroids, and a multitude of small bodies that populate the asteroid belt and the inner planet region. To what extent does this structure reflect a deterministic outcome of general Solar System formation processes, and how much of it is instead a consequence of stochastic events that would change in unpredictable ways if the system’s formation could be rerun? This fundamental question motivates scientific investigations of the inner Solar System, with implications not only for understanding our own planet’s origin but also for the origin of planetary systems and Earth-like planets beyond our own.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

NASA analysis of space mission options for the 2025 planetary defense conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat scenario

The 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise is being conducted in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), exercising SMPAG's processes for assessing space mission options and communicating to decision makers. Here, in this paper, we describe the work performed by our NASA-led team and present the results we contributed to the SMPAG effort for the exercise. Our NASA-led team assessed mission options for asteroid reconnaissance (flyby and rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption using several viable techniques: kinetic impactors, ion beam deflection, and nuclear explosive devices. Our simulations and analyses considered how much change-in-velocity an asteroid can tolerate before fragmentation onset, and we worked towards establishing requirements for robustly disrupting an asteroid. Heuristics informed by the simulation results are incorporated into optimization of deflection and disruption mission campaign options. Finally, we make some observations about useful generalizations from these results with potential applicability to any planetary defense scenario.

Asteroid deflection↗