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DOE OSTI2024

Primordial Black Hole Dark Matter Simulations Using PopSyCLE

Abstract Primordial black holes (PBHs), theorized to have originated in the early Universe, are speculated to be a viable form of dark matter. If they exist, they should be detectable through photometric and astrometric signals resulting from gravitational microlensing of stars in the Milky Way. Population Synthesis for Compact-object Lensing Events, or PopSyCLE , is a simulation code that enables users to simulate microlensing surveys, and is the first of its kind to include both photometric and astrometric microlensing effects, which are important for potential PBH detection and characterization. To estimate the number of observable PBH microlensing events, we modify PopSyCLE to include a dark matter halo consisting of PBHs. We detail our PBH population model, and demonstrate our PopSyCLE + PBH results through simulations of the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment-IV (OGLE-IV) and Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) microlensing surveys. We provide a proof-of-concept analysis for adding PBHs into PopSyCLE , and thus include many simplifying assumptions, such as f DM , the fraction of dark matter composed of PBHs, and m ¯ PBH , mean PBH mass. Assuming m ¯ PBH = 30 M ⊙ , we find ∼3.6 f DM times as many PBH microlensing events than stellar evolved black hole events, a PBH average peak Einstein crossing time of ∼91.5 days, estimate on order of 10 2 f DM PBH events within the 8 yr OGLE-IV results, and estimate Roman to detect ∼1000 f DM PBH microlensing events throughout its planned microlensing survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quasars with Proper Motions and the Link to Double and Multiple AGNs

Gaia used a large sample of photometrically selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and quasars to remove the residual spin of its global proper motion system in order to achieve a maximally inertial reference frame. A small fraction of these reference objects have statistically significant astrometric proper motions in Gaia EDR3. We compile a source sample of 105,593 high-fidelity AGNs with accurate spectroscopically determined redshifts above 0.5 from the SDSS and normalized proper motions below 4. The rate of genuinely perturbed proper motions is at least 0.17%. A smaller high completeness sample of 152 quasars with excess proper motions at a confidence level of 0.9995 is examined in detail. Pan-STARRS images and Gaia-resolved pairs reveal that 29% of the sample are either double sources or gravitationally lensed quasars. An Anderson–Darling test on parameters of a smaller high-reliability sample and their statistical controls reveals 17 significant factors that favor multiplicity and multi-source structure as the main cause of perturbed astrometry. Using a nearest-neighbor distance statistical analysis and counts of close companions in Gaia on a much larger initial sample of AGNs, an excess of closely separated sources in Gaia is detected. At least 0.33% of all optical quasars are genuinely double or multiply imaged. We provide a list of 44 candidate double or multiple AGNs and four previously known gravitational lenses. Many proper motion quasars may be more closely separated, unresolved doubles exhibiting the variability imposed motion effect, and a smaller fraction may be chance alignments with foreground stars causing weak gravitational lensing.

Astrometric microlensing effect↗

DOE OSTI2020

PopSyCLE: A New Population Synthesis Code for Compact Object Microlensing Events

We present a new Milky Way microlensing simulation code, dubbed PopSyCLE (Population Synthesis for Compact object Lensing Events). PopSyCLE is the first resolved microlensing simulation to include a compact object distribution derived from numerical supernovae explosion models and both astrometric and photometric microlensing effects. We demonstrate the capabilities of PopSyCLE by investigating the optimal way to find black holes (BHs) with microlensing. Candidate BHs have typically been selected from wide-field photometric microlensing surveys, such as OGLE, by selecting events with long Einstein crossing times (tE > 120 days). These events can be selected at closest approach and monitored astrometrically in order to constrain the mass of each lens; PopSyCLE predicts a BH detection rate of ~40% for such a program. We find that the detection rate can be enhanced to ~ 85% by selecting events with both tE > 120 days and a microlensing parallax of πE < 0.08. Unfortunately, such a selection criterion cannot be applied during the event as πE requires both pre- and post-peak photometry. However, historical microlensing events from photometric surveys can be revisited using this new selection criteria in order to statistically constrain the abundance of BHs in the Milky Way. The future WFIRST microlensing survey provides both precise photometry and astrometry and will yield individual masses of O(100 - 1000) black holes, which is at least an order of magnitude more than is possible with individual candidate follow-up with current facilities. The resulting sample of BH masses from WFIRST will begin to constrain the shape of the black hole present-day mass function, BH multiplicity, and BH kick velocity distributions

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Isolated Stellar-mass Black Hole Detected through Astrometric Microlensing

We report the first unambiguous detection and mass measurement of an isolated stellar-mass black hole (BH). We used the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to carry out precise astrometry of the source star of the long-duration (t E ≃ 270 days), high-magnification microlensing event MOA-2011-BLG-191/OGLE-2011-BLG-0462 (hereafter designated as MOA-11-191/OGLE-11-462), in the direction of the Galactic bulge. HST imaging, conducted at eight epochs over an interval of 6 yr, reveals a clear relativistic astrometric deflection of the background star's apparent position. Ground-based photometry of MOA-11-191/OGLE-11-462 shows a parallactic signature of the effect of Earth's motion on the microlensing light curve. Combining the HST astrometry with the ground-based light curve and the derived parallax, we obtain a lens mass of 7.1 ± 1.3 M ⊙ and a distance of 1.58 ± 0.18 kpc. We show that the lens emits no detectable light, which, along with having a mass higher than is possible for a white dwarf or neutron star, confirms its BH nature. Our analysis also provides an absolute proper motion for the BH. The proper motion is offset from the mean motion of Galactic disk stars at similar distances by an amount corresponding to a transverse space velocity of ~45 km s -1 , suggesting that the BH received a "natal kick" from its supernova explosion. Previous mass determinations for stellar-mass BHs have come from radial velocity measurements of Galactic X-ray binaries and from gravitational radiation emitted by merging BHs in binary systems in external galaxies. Our mass measurement is the first for an isolated stellar-mass BH using any technique.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Astrometric microlensing probes of the isolated neutron star population with Roman

Notoriously hard to detect and study, isolated neutron stars (NSs) might provide valuable answers to fundamental questions about stellar evolution and explosion physics. With the upcoming Roman Space Telescope, scheduled for launch in 2026, a new and powerful channel for their detection will become available: astrometric microlensing. We set out to create a realistic sample of simulated gravitational microlensing events as observed by Roman with the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey. We focus in particular on the population of NS lenses, which has until now been largely understudied. We used dedicated Galactic models tailored for application to microlensing by compact objects. In addition to populations of stars, white dwarfs, and black holes, we simulated four different NS populations with Maxwellian natal kick distributions: v = (150, 250, 350, 450) km/s. For each simulation, we applied projected Roman precision, cadence, and detectability criteria. We found that the parameter space log10 t E –log 10 θ E , which will be accessible to Roman observations, is efficient for the classification of stellar remnants. We found a feature in this space that is characteristic of NSs; using this feature, optimal samples of NS candidates can be constructed from Roman -like datasets. We describe the dependence of the observable parameter distributions on the assumed mean kick velocities. As the effects of natal kicks are very complex and mutually counteracting, we suggest that more detailed studies focused on the dynamics of NSs are needed in anticipation of Roman and future surveys. We estimate that Roman will observe approximately 11 000 microlensing events, including ~100 with NS lenses, whose photometric and astrometric signals are detectable; the event yield decreases by 38% when gap-filling low-cadence observations are not included. We make all simulated microlensing event datasets publicly available in preparation for Roman data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictions for a Low-mass Cutoff for the Primordial Black Hole Mass Spectrum

In this note, we outline how a modest violation in the conservation of mass during the merger of two PBHs affects the PBH mass spectrum that we previously obtained using a Boltzmann equation model for the evolution of the mass spectrum with no mass loss. We find that if the initial cosmological redshift is of the order of 10 12 , then the fraction of primordial holes with masses greater than 10 3 solar masses appears to be close to what is required to provide the seeds for galaxies. In addition, we note that as a result of rapid collisions and strong coupling to electromagnetic radiation for temperatures > GeV, there will be an effective low-mass cutoff in the mass spectrum for PBH masses less than a certain PBH mass less than 0.1M ⊙ . We also point out that this cutoff in the mass spectrum below ~ 0.1M ⊙ can be confirmed by combining future microlensing observations from the Roman Space Telescope and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory with astrometric observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

On Finding Black Holes in Photometric Microlensing Surveys

There are expected to be millions of isolated black holes in the galaxy resulting from the deaths of massive stars. Measuring the abundance and properties of this remnant population would shed light on the end stages of stellar evolution and the evolution paths of black hole systems. Detecting isolated black holes is currently only possible via gravitational microlensing, which has so far yielded one definitive detection. The difficulty in finding microlensing black holes lies in having to choose a small subset of events, based on characteristics of their light curves, to allocate expensive and scarce follow-up resources to confirm the identity of the lens. Current methods either rely on simple cuts in parameter space without using the full distribution information or are only effective on small subsets of events. In this paper, we present a new lens classification method. The classifier takes in posterior constraints on light-curve parameters and combines them with a Galactic simulation to estimate the lens class probability. This method is flexible and can be used with any set of microlensing light-curve parameters, making it applicable to large samples of events. We make this classification framework available via the popclass Python package. We apply the classifier to ~10,000 microlensing events from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment survey and find 23 high-probability black hole candidates. Our classifier also suggests that the only known isolated black hole is an observational outlier, according to current Galactic models, and the allocation of astrometric follow-up on this event was a high-risk strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗