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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Designing an Optimal Kilonova Search Using DECam for Gravitational-wave Events

We address the problem of optimally identifying all kilonovae detected via gravitational-wave emission in the upcoming LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing run, O4, which is expected to be sensitive to a factor of ~7 more binary neutron star (BNS) alerts than previously. Electromagnetic follow-up of all but the brightest of these new events will require >1 m telescopes, for which limited time is available. We present an optimized observing strategy for the DECam during O4. We base our study on simulations of gravitational-wave events expected for O4 and wide-prior kilonova simulations. We derive the detectabilities of events for realistic observing conditions. We optimize our strategy for confirming a kilonova while minimizing telescope time. For a wide range of kilonova parameters, corresponding to a fainter kilonova compared to GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that, with this optimal strategy, the discovery probability for electromagnetic counterparts with the DECam is ~80% at the nominal BNS gravitational-wave detection limit for O4 (190 Mpc), which corresponds to an ~30% improvement compared to the strategy adopted during the previous observing run. For more distant events (~330 Mpc), we reach an ~60% probability of detection, a factor of ~2 increase. For a brighter kilonova model dominated by the blue component that reproduces the observations of GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that we can reach ~90% probability of detection out to 330 Mpc, representing an increase of ~20%, while also reducing the total telescope time required to follow up events by ~20%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Disentangling the Black Hole Mass Spectrum with Photometric Microlensing Surveys

Abstract From the formation mechanisms of stars and compact objects to nuclear physics, modern astronomy frequently leverages surveys to understand populations of objects to answer fundamental questions. The population of dark and isolated compact objects in the Galaxy contains critical information related to many of these topics, but is only practically accessible via gravitational microlensing. However, photometric microlensing observables are degenerate for different types of lenses, and one can seldom classify an event as involving either a compact object or stellar lens on its own. To address this difficulty, we apply a Bayesian framework that treats lens type probabilistically and jointly with a lens population model. This method allows lens population characteristics to be inferred despite intrinsic uncertainty in the lens class of any single event. We investigate this method’s effectiveness on a simulated ground-based photometric survey in the context of characterizing a hypothetical population of primordial black holes (PBHs) with an average mass of 30 M ⊙ . On simulated data, our method outperforms current black hole (BH) lens identification pipelines and characterizes different subpopulations of lenses while jointly constraining the PBH contribution to dark matter to ≈25%. Key to robust inference, our method can marginalize over population model uncertainty. We find the lower mass cutoff for stellar origin BHs, a key observable in understanding the BH mass gap, particularly difficult to infer in our simulations. This work lays the foundation for cutting-edge PBH abundance constraints to be extracted from current photometric microlensing surveys.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inferring dark matter substructure with astrometric lensing beyond the power spectrum

Abstract Astrometry—the precise measurement of positions and motions of celestial objects—has emerged as a promising avenue for characterizing the dark matter population in our Galaxy. By leveraging recent advances in simulation-based inference and neural network architectures, we introduce a novel method to search for global dark matter-induced gravitational lensing signatures in astrometric datasets. Our method based on neural likelihood-ratio estimation shows significantly enhanced sensitivity to a cold dark matter population and more favorable scaling with measurement noise compared to existing approaches based on two-point correlation statistics. We demonstrate the real-world viability of our method by showing it to be robust to non-trivial modeled as well as unmodeled noise features expected in astrometric measurements. This establishes machine learning as a powerful tool for characterizing dark matter using astrometric data.

convolutional neural networks (1938)↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA)

The process by which raw astronomical data acquisition is transformed into scientifically meaningful results and interpretation typically involves many statistical steps. Traditional astronomy limits itself to a narrow range of old and familiar statistical methods: means and standard deviations; least-squares methods like chi(sup 2) minimization; and simple nonparametric procedures such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. These tools are often inadequate for the complex problems and datasets under investigations, and recent years have witnessed an increased usage of maximum-likelihood, survival analysis, multivariate analysis, wavelet and advanced time-series methods. The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA) assisted astronomers with the use of sophisticated tools, and to match these tools with specific problems. The SCCA operated with two professors of statistics and a professor of astronomy working together. Questions were received by e-mail, and were discussed in detail with the questioner. Summaries of those questions and answers leading to new approaches were posted on the Web (www.state.psu.edu/ mga/SCCA). In addition to serving individual astronomers, the SCCA established a Web site for general use that provides hypertext links to selected on-line public-domain statistical software and services. The StatCodes site (www.astro.psu.edu/statcodes) provides over 200 links in the areas of: Bayesian statistics; censored and truncated data; correlation and regression, density estimation and smoothing, general statistics packages and information; image analysis; interactive Web tools; multivariate analysis; multivariate clustering and classification; nonparametric analysis; software written by astronomers; spatial statistics; statistical distributions; time series analysis; and visualization tools. StatCodes has received a remarkable high and constant hit rate of 250 hits/week (over 10,000/year) since its inception in mid-1997. It is of interest to scientists both within and outside of astronomy. The most popular sections are multivariate techniques, image analysis, and time series analysis. Hundreds of copies of the ASURV, SLOPES and CENS-TAU codes developed by SCCA scientists were also downloaded from the StatCodes site. In addition to formal SCCA duties, SCCA scientists continued a variety of related activities in astrostatistics, including refereeing of statistically oriented papers submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, talks in meetings including Feigelson's talk to science journalists entitled "The reemergence of astrostatistics" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting, and published papers of astrostatistical content.

Akritas, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2025

STag. II. Classification of Serendipitous Supernovae Observed by Galaxy Redshift Surveys

With the number of supernovae observed expected to drastically increase thanks to large-scale surveys like the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), it is necessary that the tools we use to classify these objects keep up with this increase. We previously created Supernova Tagging and Classification (STag) to address this problem by employing machine learning techniques alongside logistic regression in order to assign “tags” to spectra based on spectral features. STag II is a continuation of this work, which now makes use of model supernova spectra combined with real DESI spectra in order to train STag to better deal with realistic data. Furthermore, we also make use of the rlap score as a trustworthiness cut, making for a more robust and accurate supernova classifier than before.

Astrostatistics techniques↗