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At least 19 records

Atmospheric drag model calibrations for spacecraft lifetime prediction

Although solar activity prediction uncertainty normally dominates decay prediction error budget for near-Earth spacecraft, the effect of drag force modeling errors for given levels of solar activity needs to be considered. Two atmospheric density models, the modified Harris-Priester model and the Jacchia-Roberts model, to reproduce the decay histories of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft in the 490- to 540-kilometer altitude range were analyzed. Historical solar activity data were used in the input to the density computations. For each spacecraft and atmospheric model, a drag scaling adjustment factor was determined for a high-solar-activity year, such that the observed annual decay in the mean semimajor axis was reproduced by an averaged variation-of-parameters (VOP) orbit propagation. The SME (SMM) calibration was performed using calendar year 1983 (1982). The resulting calibration factors differ by 20 to 40 percent from the predictions of the prelaunch ballistic coefficients. The orbit propagations for each spacecraft were extended to the middle of 1988 using the calibrated drag models. For the Jaccia-Roberts density model, the observed decay in the mean semimajor axis of SME (SMM) over the 4.5-year (5.5-year) predictive period was reproduced to within 1.5 (4.4) percent. The corresponding figure for the Harris-Priester model was 8.6 (20.6) percent. Detailed results and conclusions regarding the importance of accurate drag force modeling for lifetime predictions are presented.

Binebrink, A. L.

Atmospheric drag model for Cassini orbit determination during low altitude Titan flybys

On April 16, 2005, the Cassini spacecraft performed its lowest altitude flyby of Titan to date, the Titan-5 flyby, flying 1027 km above the surface of Titan. This document discusses the development of a Titan atmospheric drag model for the purpose of the orbit determination of Cassini. Results will be presented for the Titan A flyby, the Titan-5 flyby as well as the most recent low altitude Titan flyby, Titan-7. Different solutions will be compared against OD performance in terms of the flyby B-plane parameters, spacecraft thrusting activity and drag estimates. These low altitude Titan flybys were an excellent opportunity to observe the effect of Titan's atmospheric drag on the orbit determination solution and results show that the drag was successfully modeled to provide accurate flyby solutions.

orbit determination

Kalman Orbit Optimized Loop Tracking

Under certain conditions of low signal power and/or high noise, there is insufficient signal to noise ratio (SNR) to close tracking loops with individual signals on orbiting Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers. In addition, the processing power available from flight computers is not great enough to implement a conventional ultra-tight coupling tracking loop. This work provides a method to track GNSS signals at very low SNR without the penalty of requiring very high processor throughput to calculate the loop parameters. The Kalman Orbit-Optimized Loop (KOOL) tracking approach constitutes a filter with a dynamic model and using the aggregate of information from all tracked GNSS signals to close the tracking loop for each signal. For applications where there is not a good dynamic model, such as very low orbits where atmospheric drag models may not be adequate to achieve the required accuracy, aiding from an IMU (inertial measurement unit) or other sensor will be added. The KOOL approach is based on research JPL has done to allow signal recovery from weak and scintillating signals observed during the use of GPS signals for limb sounding of the Earth s atmosphere. That approach uses the onboard PVT (position, velocity, time) solution to generate predictions for the range, range rate, and acceleration of the low-SNR signal. The low- SNR signal data are captured by a directed open loop. KOOL builds on the previous open loop tracking by including feedback and observable generation from the weak-signal channels so that the MSR receiver will continue to track and provide PVT, range, and Doppler data, even when all channels have low SNR.

Young, Lawrence E.

Correlations between solar activity and operationally determined satellite drag variation parameters

Operational orbit determination of the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) in the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has yielded an orbit solution data base of 3 years for ERBS and 8 years for SMM. One of the parameters in each data base is the drag variation parameter used in the GTDS atmospheric drag model; this parameter is solved routinely to accommodate the different atmospheric densities as they are encountered solution to solution. These two data bases of the drag variation parameter solutions are analyzed to evaluate correlations in the variations of the parameter with changes in the 10.7-cm wavelength solar flux, F10.7, and the geomagnetic index. The data for SMM span a wider range of solar flux values and show a stronger correlation. The data for ERBS, which is at a higher altitude and inclination than SMM, show a significant degree of scatter. For both satellites, the data indicate that changes in the drag variation parameter are more strongly correlated with the F10.7 solar flux than with the geomagnetic index. Correlations with the geomagnetic index are apparent only for severe geomagnetic storm conditions. Results from this analysis enhance the understanding of the drag model and the accommodation density variations in operational orbit determination support.

Smith, E. A.

Scientific analysis of satellite ranging data

A network of satellite laser ranging (SLR) tracking systems with continuously improving accuracies is challenging the modelling capabilities of analysts worldwide. Various data analysis techniques have yielded many advances in the development of orbit, instrument and Earth models. The direct measurement of the distance to the satellite provided by the laser ranges has given us a simple metric which links the results obtained by diverse approaches. Different groups have used SLR data, often in combination with observations from other space geodetic techniques, to improve models of the static geopotential, the solid Earth, ocean tides, and atmospheric drag models for low Earth satellites. Radiation pressure models and other non-conservative forces for satellite orbits above the atmosphere have been developed to exploit the full accuracy of the latest SLR instruments. SLR is the baseline tracking system for the altimeter missions TOPEX/Poseidon, and ERS-1 and will play an important role in providing the reference frame for locating the geocentric position of the ocean surface, in providing an unchanging range standard for altimeter calibration, and for improving the geoid models to separate gravitational from ocean circulation signals seen in the sea surface. However, even with the many improvements in the models used to support the orbital analysis of laser observations, there remain systematic effects which limit the full exploitation of SLR accuracy today.

Smith, David E.

Filter Tuning Using the Chi-Squared Statistic

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) performs orbit determination (OD) for the Aqua and Aura satellites. Both satellites are located in low Earth orbit (LEO), and are part of what is considered the A-Train satellite constellation. Both spacecraft are currently in the science phase of their respective missions. The FDF has recently been tasked with delivering definitive covariance for each satellite.The main source of orbit determination used for these missions is the Orbit Determination Toolkit developed by Analytical Graphics Inc. (AGI). This software uses an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the states of both spacecraft. The filter incorporates force modelling, ground station and space network measurements to determine spacecraft states. It also generates a covariance at each measurement. This covariance can be useful for evaluating the overall performance of the tracking data measurements and the filter itself. An accurate covariance is also useful for covariance propagation which is utilized in collision avoidance operations. It is also valuable when attempting to determine if the current orbital solution will meet mission requirements in the future.This paper examines the use of the Chi-square statistic as a means of evaluating filter performance. The Chi-square statistic is calculated to determine the realism of a covariance based on the prediction accuracy and the covariance values at a given point in time. Once calculated, it is the distribution of this statistic that provides insight on the accuracy of the covariance.For the EKF to correctly calculate the covariance, error models associated with tracking data measurements must be accurately tuned. Over estimating or under estimating these error values can have detrimental effects on the overall filter performance. The filter incorporates ground station measurements, which can be tuned based on the accuracy of the individual ground stations. It also includes measurements from the NASA space network (SN), which can be affected by the assumed accuracy of the TDRS satellite state at the time of the measurement.The force modelling in the EKF is also an important factor that affects the propagation accuracy and covariance sizing. The dominant force in the LEO orbit regime is the drag force caused by atmospheric drag. Accurate accounting of the drag force is especially important for the accuracy of the propagated state. The implementation of a box and wing model to improve drag estimation accuracy, and its overall effect on the covariance state is explored.The process of tuning the EKF for Aqua and Aura support is described, including examination of the measurement errors of available observation types (Doppler and range), and methods of dealing with potentially volatile atmospheric drag modeling. Predictive accuracy and the distribution of the Chi-square statistic, calculated based of the ODTK EKF solutions, are assessed versus accepted norms for the orbit regime.

Covariance Analysis

Empirical studies of upper atmospheric species

The first month of spin-scan ozone imaging (SOI) data (October 1981) was processed and compared with total ozone mapping spectrometer and ground based data. Short term variations in the ozone field have been revealed using animated sequences of SOI data. High correlations were observed between SOI ozone and upper tropospheric meteorological data. The relationship between ozone and temperature in the stratosphere was investigated by examining Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet ozone and selective chopper radiometer temperature measurements as well as solar Nimbus 7 solar backscattered ultraviolet ozone and stratospheric and mesospheric sounder temperature measurements. Results from these ozone temperature studies were compared with calculations from theoretical 2-D models. All of the lims infrared monitor of the stratosphere data was processed at 10 pressure levels and correlations between various species have been performed. The Venus Atmospheric Drag model was modified taking into account recent investigations on the Venus thermosphere and the resulting model was considered for incorporation into the Venus International Reference Atmosphere.

Nicholson, J.

State-of-the-art satellite laser range modeling for geodetic and oceanographic applications

Significant improvements have been made in the modeling and accuracy of Satellite Laser Range (SLR) data since the launch of LAGEOS in 1976. Some of these include: improved models of the static geopotential, solid-Earth and ocean tides, more advanced atmospheric drag models, and the adoption of the J2000 reference system with improved nutation and precession. Site positioning using SLR systems currently yield approximately 2 cm static and 5 mm/y kinematic descriptions of the geocentric location of these sites. Incorporation of a large set of observations from advanced Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) tracking systems have directly made major contributions to the gravitational fields and in advancing the state-of-the-art in precision orbit determination. SLR is the baseline tracking system for the altimeter bearing TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1 satellites and thus, will play an important role in providing the Conventional Terrestrial Reference Frame for instantaneously locating the geocentric position of the ocean surface over time, in providing an unchanging range standard for altimeter range calibration, and for improving the geoid models to separate gravitational from ocean circulation signals seen in the sea surface. Nevertheless, despite the unprecedented improvements in the accuracy of the models used to support orbit reduction of laser observations, there still remain systematic unmodeled effects which limit the full exploitation of modern SLR data.

Klosko, Steve M.

Improving FermiI Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecrafts ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45 improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

orbit prediction

Improving Fermi Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecraft's ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45% improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

orbit prediction

Application of the NASCAP Spacecraft Simulation Tool to Investigate Electrodynamic Tether Current Collection in LEO

Recent interest in using electrodynamic tethers (EDTs) for orbital maneuvering in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) has prompted the development of the Marshall ElectroDynamic Tether Orbit Propagator (MEDTOP) model. The model is comprised of several modules which address various aspects of EDT propulsion, including calculation of state vectors using a standard orbit propagator (e.g., J2), an atmospheric drag model, realistic ionospheric and magnetic field models, space weather effects, and tether librations. The natural electromotive force (EMF) attained during a radially-aligned conductive tether results in electrons flowing down the tether and accumulating on the lower-altitude spacecraft. The energy that drives this EMF is sourced from the orbital energy of the system; thus, EDTs are often proposed as de-orbiting systems. However, when the current is reversed using satellite charged particle sources, then propulsion is possible. One of the most difficult challenges of the modeling effort is to ascertain the equivalent circuit between the spacecraft and the ionospheric plasma. The present study investigates the use of the NASA Charging Analyzer Program (NASCAP) to calculate currents to and from the tethered satellites and the ionospheric plasma. NASCAP is a sophisticated set of computational tools to model the surface charging of three-dimensional (3D) spacecraft surfaces in a time-varying space environment. The model's surface is tessellated into a collection of facets, and NASCAP calculates currents and potentials for each one. Additionally, NASCAP provides for the construction of one or more nested grids to calculate space potential and time-varying electric fields. This provides for the capability to track individual particles orbits, to model charged particle wakes, and to incorporate external charged particle sources. With this study, we have developed a model of calculating currents incident onto an electrodynamic tethered satellite system, and first results are shown here.

Adams, Mitzi

Lifetime predictions for the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and San Marco spacecraft

Lifetime prediction techniques developed by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) are described. These techniques were developed to predict the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft orbit, which is decaying due to atmospheric drag, with reentry predicted to occur before the end of 1989. Lifetime predictions were also performed for the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), which was deployed on the 1984 SMM repair mission and is scheduled for retrieval on another Space Transportation System (STS) mission later this year. Concepts used in the lifetime predictions were tested on the San Marco spacecraft, which reentered the Earth's atmosphere on December 6, 1988. Ephemerides predicting the orbit evolution of the San Marco spacecraft until reentry were generated over the final 90 days of the mission when the altitude was less than 380 kilometers. The errors in the predicted ephemerides are due to errors in the prediction of atmospheric density variations over the lifetime of the satellite. To model the time dependence of the atmospheric densities, predictions of the solar flux at the 10.7-centimeter wavelength were used in conjunction with Harris-Priester (HP) atmospheric density tables. Orbital state vectors, together with the spacecraft mass and area, are used as input to the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS). Propagations proceed in monthly segments, with the nominal atmospheric drag model scaled for each month according to the predicted monthly average value of F10.7. Calibration propagations are performed over a period of known orbital decay to obtain the effective ballistic coefficient. Progagations using plus or minus 2 sigma solar flux predictions are also generated to estimate the despersion in expected reentry dates. Definitive orbits are compared with these predictions as time expases. As updated vectors are received, these are also propagated to reentryto continually update the lifetime predictions.

Smith, E. A.

Interpolation schemes for orbit determination with the global positioning system

This paper demonstrates that the Global Positioning System (GPS) and simple interpolation schemes can be utilized to satisfy typical orbit determination demands of applications satellites. The complete GPS consists of 24 satellites and permits a position fix of a user satellite at any arbitrary instant. The interpolation formulae used in this report fit generalized Keplerian orbits through a number of position fixes. For a given accuracy level the telemetry requirements as measured by the time intervals between position fixes and the computational load of an interpolation as measured by the number of points through which a generalized Keplerian orbit is fitted vary inversely. A set of possible compromises between these two factors is presented. The Phase I GPS consists of 6 satellites and permits a position fix of a user satellite just 36% of the time. It is shown that with this system more sophisticated interpolation schemes which model atmospheric drag and higher degree terms of the earth's gravity field must be employed to obtain accurate orbits.

Argentiero, P.

Orbit determination requirements for Topex

The orbit determination requirements for the Ocean Topography Experiment (Topex/Poseidon) are discussed. A radial orbit accuracy of 13 cm for a period of three to five years is required for the mission. The factors which limit the orbit accuracy for the geopotential, the solar radiation pressure, and the atmospheric drag model are examined. Also, the effects introduced by variations with aspect angle in the spacecraft area-to-mass ratio are considered.

Tapley, B. D.

Flight Mechanics/Estimation Theory Symposium, 1989

Numerous topics in flight mechanics and estimation were discussed. Satellite attitude control, quaternion estimation, orbit and attitude determination, spacecraft maneuvers, spacecraft navigation, gyroscope calibration, spacecraft rendevous, and atmospheric drag model calculations for spacecraft lifetime prediction are among the topics covered.

Stengle, Thomas

Precision orbit determination for Topex

The ability of radar altimeters to measure the distance from a satellite to the ocean surface with a precision of the order of 2 cm imposes unique requirements for the orbit determination accuracy. The orbit accuracy requirements will be especially demanding for the joint NASA/CNES Ocean Topography Experiment (Topex/Poseidon). For this mission, a radial orbit accuracy of 13 centimeters will be required for a mission period of three to five years. This is an order of magnitude improvement in the accuracy achieved during any previous satellite mission. This investigation considers the factors which limit the orbit accuracy for the Topex mission. Particular error sources which are considered include the geopotential, the radiation pressure and the atmospheric drag model.

Tapley, B. D.

Filter Tuning Using the Chi-Squared Statistic

This paper examines the use of the Chi-square statistic as a means of evaluating filter performance. The goal of the process is to characterize the filter performance in the metric of covariance realism. The Chi-squared statistic is the value calculated to determine the realism of a covariance based on the prediction accuracy and the covariance values at a given point in time. Once calculated, it is the distribution of this statistic that provides insight on the accuracy of the covariance. The process of tuning an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for Aqua and Aura support is described, including examination of the measurement errors of available observation types, and methods of dealing with potentially volatile atmospheric drag modeling. Predictive accuracy and the distribution of the Chi-squared statistic, calculated from EKF solutions, are assessed.

Filter Tuning