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SSAPy - Space Situational Awareness for Python

SSAPy is a fast and flexible orbit modeling and analysis tool for orbits spanning from low-Earth into the cislunar regime. Orbits can be flexibly specified from common input formats such as Keplerian elements or two-line element (TLE) data files. SSAPy allows users to model satellites and specify parameters such as satellite area, mass, and drag coefficients. SSAPy includes a customizable force-propagation with a range of Earth, Lunar, radiation, atmospheric, and maneuvering models. SSAPy makes use of various community integration methods and can calculate time-evolved orbital quantities, including satellite magnitudes and state vectors. Users can specify various space- and ground-based observation models with support for multiple coordinate and reference frames. SSAPy also supports orbit analysis and propagation methods such as multiple hypothesis tracking and has built-in uncertainty quantification. The majority of SSAPy’s methods are vectorized and parallelizable, allowing for effective use of high-performance computer (HPC) systems. Finally, SSAPy has plotting functionality, allowing users to visualize orbits and trajectories. Examples are shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Satellite Reentry Predictions During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Prediction of uncontrolled satellite reentry time and trajectory are essential to avoid damages to human being and properties over land. Reentry time and trajectory are largely controlled by aerodynamic drag and mass neutral density below 200 km. In this paper, using a numerical model of the whole atmosphere, WACCM‐X, and a Precision Orbital Determination software, we demonstrate the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009, during the deep solar minimum of 2009, may cause 0.2–0.3 day of variation in reentry time. The SSW can alter the mass density and composition mixing ratio in the lower thermosphere below 200 km through changed wave forcing and general circulation in the lower thermosphere. This is comparable to the effect of a 2‐SFU (Solar Flux Unit) solar radiance variation on the neutral density. 0.1 day of reentry time uncertainty corresponds to a global shift in impact location, that is, thousands of kilometers distance. For comparison, a major SSW during solar maximum contributes little to reentry time variation, which is predominantly controlled by the solar and geomagnetic forcing. We suggest a few proxies such as O/N 2 in the lower thermosphere or mean meridional wind to account for the lower atmosphere impacts in an operational model. This needs to be investigated in rigorous future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Panspermia Origin for Venus Cloud Life

Decades of study have hinted at the astrobiological potential of Venus's cloud layers. This potential is often cast as stemming from the idea that the Venusian surface was clement in the past. As the climate changed, life then remained in, or perhaps evolved and migrated to, the last habitable niche: the altitudes above ∼50 km with Earth-like temperatures and pressures today. Here we explore an alternative scenario where life was delivered to Venus' clouds from Earth or Mars (“panspermia”). This process requires a life-containing bolide to enter the atmosphere, without experiencing complete sterilization, and then be dispersed at high altitude in fragments small enough to dwell in the clouds. We adapt a widely used model of bolide-atmosphere interaction to investigate the fate of bolides delivered to Venus from Earth and Mars. Starting at the top of the atmosphere, bolides ablate and fragment. Aerodynamic drag spreads these fragments horizontally, forming a “pancake” with an increased effective cross-section, causing rapid deceleration. An airburst occurs when the bolide deposits its highest amount of kinetic energy in the atmosphere. Observations of terrestrial meteorites provide a scaling law for the distribution of post-airburst fragment sizes. Inspired by the “Venus Life Equation,” we present a framework for calculating the rate at which panspermia delivers microbial life to the clouds of Venus. Our best estimate is an average of ∼100 cells dispersed in the clouds per Earth-year. Whether this life can survive and thrive in its new home remains an open question.

Guinan, Emma [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (Unit↗

An infrasound source analysis of the OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule hypersonic re-entry

The OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule's hypersonic re-entry into the atmosphere is a rare opportunity to test a variety of sonic boom source models since the projectile dimensions are well characterized. While the as-flown flight path is unknown, the predicted flight path enables a rough approximation of the source Mach number and location. Six infrasound microphones deployed in the boom carpet along the predicted flight path recorded impulsive signals from the OSIRIS-REx re-entry. Using a suite of atmosphere profiles and the geometric acoustics approximation, we estimate locations with uncertainty estimates along the flight path from which the signals were emitted. Acoustic overpressure and signal duration predictions from Whitham's far field theory, Carlson's simplified sonic boom prediction method, and a drag-dominated hypersonic model are analyzed with uncertainty estimates from the location estimate. While the Carlson simplified sonic boom prediction method could be accurate, our preference is for the drag-dominated source model. Using this source model with an inviscid Burgers's equation solver for propagation, we obtained an excellent match to the recorded data. In conclusion, these results will help better inform future sample return capsule re-entry observation campaigns as well as contribute to a better understanding of high altitude infrasonic sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A New Theoretical Framework for Parameterizing Nonequilibrium Fractionation During Evaporation From the Ocean

The evaporation model for water isotopes proposed by Craig and Gordon (1965, https://books.google.co.in/books?id=6wIKAQAAIAAJ) is used in most isotope-enabled atmospheric models for the parameterization of nonequilibrium fractionation during evaporation from the ocean. In this model, one of the most uncertain parameters is the nonequilibrium fractionation factor 𝛼 𝑘 . Many isotope models use the formulation of Merlivat and Jouzel (1979, https://doi.org/10.1029/jc084ic08p05029), which parameterizes 𝛼 𝑘 as a function of wind speed and distinguishes between a smooth and a rough regime to account for the effect of ocean waves. The resulting discontinuity in 𝛼 𝑘 between smooth and rough regimes has been disputed by several empirical studies. Here, we present a new approach to parameterizing 𝛼𝑘 by explicitly accounting for the influence of wave drag on the momentum flux near the surface. Following Cifuentes-Lorenzen et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-018-0376-0), we add a third wave-induced component to the total momentum flux, in addition to the viscous and turbulent components, and extend the definition of the eddy viscosity to account for the momentum flux due to waves and turbulent dissipation near the surface. The new scheme predicts a slight decrease of 𝛼 𝑘 with wind speed, similar to the smooth-regime parameterization of Merlivat and Jouzel (1979, https://doi.org/10.1029/jc084ic08p05029). This new parameterization is incorporated into the isotope-enabled Community Atmosphere Model, where it improves the correlation of simulated and measured vapor deuterium excess relative to the default version and a version with constant 𝛼 𝑘 , suggesting that it may be used as a valid representation of fractionation during evaporation from the ocean in future isotope models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Misaligned Wind‐Waves Behind Atmospheric Cold Fronts

Abstract Atmospheric fronts embedded in extratropical cyclones are high‐impact weather phenomena, contributing significantly to mid‐latitude winter precipitation. The three vital characteristics of the atmospheric fronts, high wind speeds, abrupt change in wind direction, and rapid translation, force the induced surface waves to be misaligned with winds exclusively behind the cold fronts. The effects of the misaligned waves under atmospheric cold fronts on air‐sea fluxes remain undocumented. Using the multi‐year in situ near‐surface observations and direct covariance flux measurements from the Pioneer Array off the coast of New England, we find that the majority of the passing cold fronts generate misaligned waves behind the cold front. Once generated, the waves remain misaligned, on average, for about 8 hr. The parameterized effect of misaligned waves in a fully coupled model significantly increases the roughness length (185%), drag coefficient (19%), and air‐sea momentum flux (11%). The increased surface drag reduces the wind speeds in the surface layer. The upward turbulent heat flux is weakly decreased by the misaligned waves because of the decrease in temperature and humidity scaling parameters being greater than the increase in friction velocity. The misaligned wave effect is not accurately represented in a commonly used wave‐based bulk flux algorithm. Yet, considering this effect in the current formulation improves the overall accuracy of parameterized momentum flux estimates. The results imply that better representing a directional wind‐wave coupling in the bulk formula of the numerical models may help improve the air‐sea interaction simulations under the passing atmospheric fronts in the mid‐latitudes.

Oceanography↗

Assessing the Impact of a Forest Canopy on Near-Surface Wind Statistics

Representing the forest canopy in atmospheric numerical models should improve simulated winds within and above the canopy up to a few hundred meters above the ground. Here, in this study, we implement a forest canopy parameterization into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in a large-eddy simulation (LES) mode by applying drag forces across multiple layers within the canopy height. We use unique observations from the Lidar Experiments for Assessing Flow over Forests (LEAFF) field campaign at the Wind River Experimental Forest (WREF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to evaluate model performance. In a 2-day case study, the canopy parameterization improved wind predictions both within and above the canopy, particularly during the daytime and at finer grid resolution. Without it, winds were frequently overpredicted above the canopy. Similarly, derived quantities such as the wind shear index also yielded estimates closer to observations with the canopy parameterization implemented. These findings suggest that representing the canopy using drag forces alone can improve simulated mean winds up to 200 m above the surface. Furthermore, second-order statistical moments of wind were more sensitive to canopy density than first-order moments, especially during the daytime. This increased sensitivity and the improved daytime performance in wind speed—evidenced by the lowest bias from observations (3% compared to 20% over diurnal cycle)—imply that winds above the canopy layer are strongly influenced by how well turbulence above the canopy is modeled. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for parameterizing forest canopy effects in coarser weather forecast models.

Energy - Wind↗

Comparing Gravity Waves in a Kilometer‐Scale Run of the IFS to AIRS Satellite Observations and ERA5

Abstract Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) impact the circulation and variability of the atmosphere. Sub‐grid scale GWs, which are too small to be resolved, are parameterized in weather and climate models. However, some models are now available at resolutions at which these waves become resolved and it is important to test whether these models do this correctly. In this study, a GW resolving run of the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), run with a 1.4 km average grid spacing (TCo7999 resolution), is compared to observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument, on NASA's Aqua satellite, to test how well the model resolves GWs that AIRS can observe. In this analysis, nighttime data are used from the first 10 days of November 2018 over part of Asia and surrounding regions. The IFS run is resampled with AIRS's observational filter using two different methods for comparison. The ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis is also resampled as AIRS, to allow for comparison of how the high resolution IFS run resolves GWs compared to a lower resolution model that uses GW drag parametrizations. Wave properties are found in AIRS and the resampled models using a multi‐dimensional S‐Transform method. Orographic GWs can be seen in similar locations at similar times in all three data sets. However, wave amplitudes and momentum fluxes in the resampled IFS run are found to be significantly lower than in the observations. This could be a result of horizontal and vertical wavelengths in the IFS run being underestimated.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Effects of Surface Turbulence Flux Parameterizations on the MJO: The Role of Ocean Surface Waves

This study investigates the sensitivity of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) to changes to the bulk flux parameterization and the role of ocean surface waves in air–sea coupling using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave model. The atmospheric and ocean model components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) are coupled to a spectral wave model, WAVEWATCH III (WW3). Two experiments with wind speed–dependent bulk algorithms (NCAR and COARE3.0a) and one experiment with wave-state-dependent flux (COR3.0a-WAV) were conducted. We modify COARE3.0a to include surface roughness calculated within WW3 and also account for the buffering effect of waves on the relative difference between air-side and ocean-side momentum flux. Differences in surface fluxes, primarily caused by discrepancies in drag coefficients, result in significant differences in MJO’s properties. While COARE3.0a has better convection–circulation coupling than NCAR, it exhibits anomalous MJO convection east of the date line. The wave-state-dependent flux (COR3.0-WAV) improves the MJO representation over the default COARE3.0 algorithm. Strong easterlies over the Pacific Ocean in COARE3.0a enhance the latent heat flux (LHFLX). This is responsible for the anomalous MJO propagation after the date line. In COR3.0a-WAV, waves reduce the anomalous easterlies, leading to a decrease in LHFLX and MJO dissipation after the date line. These findings highlight the role of surface fluxes in MJO simulation fidelity. Most importantly, we show that the proper treatment of wave-induced effects in bulk flux parameterization improves the simulation of coupled climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving the QBO Forcing by Resolved Waves With Vertical Grid Refinement in E3SMv2

Abstract The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominate mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere and plays an important role in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. The QBO is notably deficient in many climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the US Department of Energy. In this work, we refine the lower stratospheric vertical grid spacing from roughly 1 km to 500 m to facilitate more realistic equatorial wave activity in the lower stratosphere in E3SM version 2. The refinement results in a simulated QBO with a reasonable amplitude and easterly‐westerly transition in both directions, but still has a longer period than observed, slower easterly downward propagation speed, and shallower vertical depth. Similar refinement in the multi‐scale modeling framework configuration of E3SM yields similar improvements. By analyzing the forcing contributions from different wave types, we find that most of the QBO forcing still comes from parameterized gravity wave drag from convection. The improved QBO forcing contributions from resolved waves, especially equatorial Kelvin waves and resolved small scale waves, can be attributed to the grid refinement.

E3SM↗

X-ray imaging and electron temperature evolution in laser-driven magnetic reconnection experiments at the national ignition facility

We present results from x-ray imaging of high-aspect-ratio magnetic reconnection experiments driven at the National Ignition Facility. Two parallel, self-magnetized, elongated laser-driven plumes are produced by tiling 40 laser beams. A magnetic reconnection layer is formed by the collision of the plumes. A gated x-ray framing pinhole camera with micro-channel plate detector produces multiple images through various filters of the formation and evolution of both the plumes and current sheet. As the diagnostic integrates plasma self-emission along the line of sight, two-dimensional electron temperature maps ⟨Te⟩Y are constructed by taking the ratio of intensity of these images obtained with different filters. The plumes have a characteristic temperature ⟨Te⟩Y=240 ± 20 eV at 2 ns after the initial laser irradiation and exhibit a slow cooling up to 4 ns. The reconnection layer forms at 3 ns with a temperature ⟨Te⟩Y=280 ± 50 eV as the result of the collision of the plumes. The error bars of the plumes and current sheet temperatures separate at 4 ns, showing the heating of the current sheet from colder inflows. Using a semi-analytical model, we survey various heating mechanisms in the current sheet. We find that reconnection energy conversion would dominate at low density (ne≲7×1018 cm−3) and electron-ion collisional drag at high-density (≳1019 cm−3).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Air‐Ice‐Ocean Coupling During a Strong Mid‐Winter Cyclone: Observing Coupled Dynamic Interactions Across Scales

Abstract Arctic cyclones are key drivers of sea ice and ocean variability. During the 2019–2020 Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, joint observations of the coupled air‐ice‐ocean system were collected at multiple spatial scales. Here, we present observations of a strong mid‐winter cyclone that impacted the MOSAiC site as it drifted in the central Arctic pack ice. The sea ice dynamical response showed spatial structure at the scale of the evolving and translating cyclonic wind field. Internal ice stress and ocean stress play significant roles, resulting in timing offsets between the atmospheric forcing and the ice response and post‐cyclone inertial ringing in the ice and ocean. Ice motion in response to the wind field then forces the upper ocean currents through frictional drag. The strongest impacts to the sea ice and ocean from the passing cyclone occur as a result of the surface impacts of a strong atmospheric low‐level jet (LLJ) behind the trailing cold front and changing wind directions between the warm‐sector LLJ and post cold‐frontal LLJ. Impacts of the cyclone are prolonged through the coupled ice‐ocean inertial response. Local impacts of the approximately 120 km wide LLJ occur over a 12 hr period or less and at scales of a kilometer to a few tens of kilometers, meaning that these impacts occur at combined smaller spatial scales and faster time scales than most satellite observations and coupled Earth system models can resolve.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Planet Formation by Gas-assisted Accretion of Small Solids

We compute the accretion efficiency of small solids, with radii 1 cm ≤ R s ≤ 10 m, on planets embedded in gaseous disks. Planets have masses 3 ≤ M p ≤ 20 Earth masses (M ⊕ ) and orbit within 10 au of a solar mass star. Disk thermodynamics is modeled via 3D radiation-hydrodynamics calculations that typically resolve the planetary envelopes. Both icy and rocky solids are considered, explicitly modeling their thermodynamic evolution. The maximum efficiencies of 1 ≤ R s ≤ 100 cm particles are generally ≲10%, whereas 10 m solids tend to accrete efficiently or be segregated beyond the planet’s orbit. A simplified approach is applied to compute the accretion efficiency of small cores, with masses M p ≤ 1 M ⊕ and without envelopes, for which efficiencies are approximately proportional to $M^{2/3}_{p}$. The mass flux of solids, estimated from unperturbed drag-induced drift velocities, provides typical accretion rates dM p /dt ≲ 10 -5 M ⊕ yr -1 . In representative disk models with an initial gas-to-dust mass ratio of 70–100 and total mass of 0.05–0.06 M ⊙ , the solids’ accretion falls below 10 -6 M ⊕ yr -1 after 1–1.5 Myr. The derived accretion rates, as functions of time and planet mass, are applied to formation calculations that compute dust opacity self-consistently with the delivery of solids to the envelope. Assuming dust-to-solid coagulation times of ≈0.3 Myr and disk lifetimes of ≈3.5 Myr, heavy-element inventories in the range 3–7 M ⊕ require that ≈90–150 M ⊕ of solids cross the planet’s orbit. The formation calculations encompass a variety of outcomes, from planets a few times M ⊕ , predominantly composed of heavy elements, to giant planets. The peak luminosities during the epoch of the solids’ accretion range from ≈10 -7 to ≈10 -6 L ⊙ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dissipation Scaled Internal Wave Drag in a Global Heterogeneously Coupled Internal/External Mode Total Water Level Model

This study showcases a global, heterogeneously coupled total water level system wherein salinity and temperature outputs from a coarser-resolution (~12 km) ocean general circulation model are used to calculate density-driven terms within a global, higher-resolution (~2.5 km) depth-averaged total water level model. We demonstrate that the inclusion of baroclinic forcing in the barotropic model requires modification of the internal wave drag term to prevent excess degradation of tidal results compared to the barotropic model. By scaling the internal tide dissipation by an easy to calculate dissipation ratio, the resulting heterogeneously coupled model has complex root mean square errors (RMSE) of 2.27 cm in the deep ocean and 12.16 cm in shallow waters for the M 2 tidal constituent. While this represents a 10%–20% deterioration as compared to the barotropic model, the improvements in total water level prediction more than offset this degradation. Global median RMSE compared to observations of total water levels, 30-day sea levels, and non-tidal residuals improve by 1.86 (18.5%), 2.55 (42.5%), and 0.36 (5.3%) cm respectively. The drastic improvement in model performance highlights the importance of including density-driven effects within global hydrodynamic models and will help to improve the results of both hindcasts and forecasts in modeling extreme and nuisance flooding. With only an 11% increase in model run time compared to the fully barotropic total water level model, this approach paves the way for high resolution coastal water level and flood models to be used alongside climate models, improving operational forecasting of total water levels.

Blakely, Coleman Peter [University of Notre Dame, ↗